Ellenson: One and Done or not?

[kryza]

His Instagram username is "heNBA13".

/endofdiscussion

[brewcity77]

I think y'all are expending way too much energy worry about this. What he decides, he decides, and we should all be thankful he has decided to spend his college career at Marquette, no matter how long or short that is.

You fellas are like the guy who is dating a beautiful, smart, and funny woman, but instead of enjoying it, he spends all of his time worrying about when she will come to her senses and break it off.

Why do people seem to think that considering how long a player will be around constitutes worry? I'm not worried in the least. One year, two years, whatever, I'm looking forward to him playing.

That said, I'm curious what the rest of MU nation thinks about how long he'll be around and think it's worth discussing as it impacts our future in terms of players in the fold and available scholarships.

Just part of summer when all you have are (at best) exhibition games. Discuss the hopes, dreams, and expectations for the future of the program.

[cheebs09]

We've had a lot of one and dones. Most just head to Iowa State instead of the pros.

[brewcity77]

We've had a lot of one and dones. Most just head to Iowa State instead of the pros.

LOL That post is full of win. 

[The Lens]

We've had a lot of one and dones. Most just head to Iowa State instead of the pros.

OK, maybe this is Post of the Year

[martyconlonontherun]

First, we have NEVER had a one-and-done.

Second, if both of these guys had stayed -- along with Jim Chones -- there would have been multiple National Championship banners hanging.

McNeill should not have left early. He is an interesting lesson for Henry. He was a strong enough player to be drafted but not strong enough to be an NBA stud. He averaged about 8.1 points per game in his career and 17.2 minutes playing time per game. Had he stayed in 1973-1974, he might well have been the difference in Marquette being able to tame David Thompson and NC State. I think we missed him far more than the NBA wanted him.

Henry looks like he has it all. But, how much seasoning does he need before headed for the NBA? Dean Smith, back in Michael Jordan's day, would argue that his players should turn pro early if they would be drafted with one of the first half dozen choices in the NBA draft. His insights were from ex-Carolina players and his relationships in the NBA and usually were pretty good. Below that, the player would be a bench-sitter.

Time will tell but lets enjoy it while we can.

I guess I don't understand the lesson. Are you saying McNeill would have gotten stronger with another year of college compared to training with NBA trainers and coaches?

The NBA has far more resources and better coaching than college programs. The players also don't have to be a full-time student and aren't restricted by the NCAA to live on meal plans and health care from the school (though is more of a problem of the well-documented lower tier D-1 schools). If I wanted to be the best player possible, I'm not sure how going against walk-ons at Marquette is going to get me there.

If you are arguing the experience of being a star is the most important, then being in the NCAA tourney is a great way to be a star. From what I can tell from HE is that he wants to be a great basketball player and just not a big man on campus.

[dgies9156]

I guess I don't understand the lesson. Are you saying McNeill would have gotten stronger with another year of college compared to training with NBA trainers and coaches?

I'm saying that playing every day and refining your game in college is better than riding the bench in the NBA.

I will concur that things are different now than then. McNeill played for undercapitalized teams with meager resources. I think the players union as well as the health of the game in the post-Jordan era changed that forever. Still, there are too many sad stories of high college players lost as the 10th to 12th guys on an NBA roster.

That said, I'm looking forward to seeing Henry play, whether it be one year, four or any amount of time in between.

[4everwarriors]

Crean sucks

[martyconlonontherun]

I'm saying that playing every day and refining your game in college is better than riding the bench in the NBA.

Not sure what you mean about playing everyday.

Practice Time: More time in NBA with better coaches and facilities. In practice, the worst player on the Bucks he would be going against is Johnny O'bryant who was a college star. At Marquette, he will be playing against some random walk on when playing 5-on-5 most years. HE wouldn't have a full class schedule either, allowing him more time to work on his game. The NBA hire assistant coaches on their ability to work with players. The Bucks have a couple specialist for redefining a players shot and coaching them. In college, the majority of the assistants are picked on how they recruit from what I can tell.

Game Time: The most a player is going to play in college is about 40 games and 1,200 game minutes.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2014.html
I exported ^that^ into excel, removed injured (Randle, Embiid) and European guys (Saric, Bodganivic, etc) and first rounders averaged 46.8 games and 924 minutes. Even as a 10th man, they still get plenty of experience. Any experience they lose, I believe it is more than offset by working out as a professional against other professionals.

[4everwarriors]

To say nothin' of the cash, hey?

[Jay Bee]

Johnny O'bryant who was a college star. At Marquette, he will be playing against some random walk on when playing 5-on-5 most years.

Game Time: The most a player is going to play in college is about 40 games and 1,200 game minutes.

O'Bryant a star? If Henry's offensive production is that of O'Bryant's (as a junior!), we'll have issues.

What random walk on is Henry playing against this year?

...haven't had a guy with less than 1,400 minutes in college bball the last few years..

[4everwarriors]

Dude, if ya need 5 bucks to move up a notch from the Chancery to maybe say Chipotle, let me know, hey?

[The Equalizer]

I'm saying that playing every day and refining your game in college is better than riding the bench in the NBA.

Maybe if you're talking about the players ego. 

For everything else, he'd be better off riding an NBA bench than playing in college.

1. The NCAA restricts practice to just 20 hours per week and 4 hours per day.  An NBA player faces no such restrictions.
2. An NBA player can afford to hire the best private coaches to improve any weakness in his game.
3. Excluding playoffs/tournaments, an NBA season is 82 games, an NCAA season is only 32 games.  So a 30 mpg player in college only has to average 12 mpg to have an equal amount of game time.
4. In the NBA, there are 48 mpg to go around, while there are only 40 in college--so there is more opportunity to log that 12 mpg.
5. The best team a player encounters in college is not going to challenge him as much as the worst team he faces in the NBA
6. In fact, the practice squad an NBA player faces  is probably better than the best college team he faces, and undoubtedly better than his college practice squad.
7. His coaches in college split time between athletic fund raising, recruiting and actual coaching.  His NBA coaches are 100% focused on coaching.

There is no way a player will develop better by staying in college than he will if he heads to the NBA. 
 

[Jay Bee]

^^ IMO, it depends on the kid. There is something to be said of DOMINATING and LEADING when it comes to growth as a player and a man.

All minutes are not created equal.

[martyconlonontherun]

O'Bryant a star? If Henry's offensive production is that of O'Bryant's (as a junior!), we'll have issues.
What random walk on is Henry playing against this year?
...haven't had a guy with less than 1,400 minutes in college bball the last few years..

JOB was a 2x all-sec first teamer. I college that a star on a college team. Not trying to overstate he was a wooden winner or anything. Now compare that to to who HE will be going against in practice: his brother and a 18 year old heldt when playing first team versus second team. My point is HE will be going against the best talent in the world every day at practice in the NBA and I'm not sure why people don't value that.

I don't understand your minute comment. We are comparing an extra year in college versus the nba. The most anyone played last year was Wilson with 1,052 minutes.

[martyconlonontherun]

Looking at MU's schedule, there are probably 15 games at minimum where HE won't be going against any NBA talent. I get being the man is important to development but he has his freshmen year to do that.

[wadesworld]

Maybe if you're talking about the players ego. 

For everything else, he'd be better off riding an NBA bench than playing in college.

1. The NCAA restricts practice to just 20 hours per week and 4 hours per day.  An NBA player faces no such restrictions.
2. An NBA player can afford to hire the best private coaches to improve any weakness in his game.
3. Excluding playoffs/tournaments, an NBA season is 82 games, an NCAA season is only 32 games.  So a 30 mpg player in college only has to average 12 mpg to have an equal amount of game time.
4. In the NBA, there are 48 mpg to go around, while there are only 40 in college--so there is more opportunity to log that 12 mpg.
5. The best team a player encounters in college is not going to challenge him as much as the worst team he faces in the NBA
6. In fact, the practice squad an NBA player faces  is probably better than the best college team he faces, and undoubtedly better than his college practice squad.
7. His coaches in college split time between athletic fund raising, recruiting and actual coaching.  His NBA coaches are 100% focused on coaching.

There is no way a player will develop better by staying in college than he will if he heads to the NBA. 
 

I challenge you to find me an NBA team that practices more than 20 hours per week and more than 4 hours per day.  It doesn't even come close.

[Splash11]

Maybe if you're talking about the players ego. 

For everything else, he'd be better off riding an NBA bench than playing in college.

There is no way a player will develop better by staying in college than he will if he heads to the NBA. 
 

Just a quick little stat:

Spencer Hawes and Kevin Love are the only 2 White NCAA American players to be one-and-done in the last 10 years.
Spencer Hawes was projected to go 5th the entire year leading up to the draft , and ended up being drafted 10th.
Kevin Love was also expected to go 5th and ended up being drafted 5th, and was also a 1st team All-American.

[MUchamp22]

One thing you have to look at here is that scouts say this draft class is relatively weak and the draft from the 2016 recruiting class is loaded. One and done might be the right decision for Henry for this reason alone. As long as his draft stock doesn't drop too much.

[GGGG]

One of the things that I think people are forgetting is that if HE stays in school, he is limiting his earning potential.

When he decides to enter the draft, he is going to have to spend his first four years on a rookie contract...assuming of course he is drafted in the first round.  The earlier he gets off that first contract is when he can get onto the more lucrative second one. 

So for instance, let's say that HE decides to go pro after one year and he is drafted around #20.  He would earn about $7.2 million over his first four years.  Now let's say he came back and actually improved his stock and is drafted #8.  That get's him $13.6 million.  Sounds like a good deal right?  He made $6 million+ more over the course of his first four years by waiting.

However under the first scenario, HE will be able to cash in a year earlier.  He may very well exceed that $6 million difference in the first year of that new contract.  So when you compare of how much he has earned at a similar age (as opposed to years) he may likely be better off leaving early even if it means he is drafted lower in round one.  You can only play so many years of basketball.  He might as well maximize his earnings during that time.

[The Lens]

Chad Ford no longer has Henry at #9.

He has him at #8

But keep telling yourself he's coming back.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Yeaaa, at first I thought he was gonna stay for 2, but man the kid looks so good. Selfishly I want him to stay for 2 but it's looking more like a 1 and done with every game.

[The Lens]

I challenge you to find me an NBA team that practices more than 20 hours per week and more than 4 hours per day.  It doesn't even come close.

You're right, they are not "practicing" that much but the gym is open 24 hours and the coaches will stay until 3am with guys as they get shots up.  There are no restrictions to individual instruction.  Listen to guys like Jared Dudley talk, they casually mention stopping at the Cousins Center late at night to get shots up and seeing coaches and Giannis there.  I think MU is a fantastic place to "prep" for the NBA.  We have the facilities, the support and a Coach K graduate, but that being said, I'd have my kid go pro right away if he was a Top 10 pick.

[wadesworld]

You're right, they are not "practicing" that much but the gym is open 24 hours and the coaches will stay until 3am with guys as they get shots up.  There are no restrictions to individual instruction.  Listen to guys like Jared Dudley talk, they casually mention stopping at the Cousins Center late at night to get shots up and seeing coaches and Giannis there.  I think MU is a fantastic place to "prep" for the NBA.  We have the facilities, the support and a Coach K graduate, but that being said, I'd have my kid go pro right away if he was a Top 10 pick.

No doubt the earlier you get on an NBA roster the faster you're going to progress as a player.  But the practice hour "restriction" is not a restriction at all, and not a reason to choose leaving early over staying in college, as no NBA team will ever go over those 20 hours per week or 4 hours per day.  The college players can go to their practice gyms and shoot at any time of the day or night, just like the NBA players can.  The only thing that restricts the amount of time they can be in the gym is that they have to be in class (at some schools, anyway).

[Herman Cain]

I think he will stay all four years. My current best guess is he will have a steady progression ending as Big East Player of the Year as a Senior. Upside is he has a Ty Hansbrough/ Doug McDermott type college career.

Needs to demonstrate he can play against tough athletic quick players. I think Big East is a great forum for him to do that. Obviously his skills are formidable and very glad we have him.

There is some good points being made about practice in an NBA environment. I think he may end up enjoying the college environment and want to savor that for as long as he can.