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27-10

Why JJJ has to play 25+ minutes per game

Started by NersEllenson, February 01, 2015, 05:38:55 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

tower912

#350
Connie could drop the mic and walk off the stage, but she seems too level headed to do that.  
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

jsglow

I suggest that we all use the single word 'connie' every time a more long winded explanation would have previously been offered.  You have done us a great service.

NersEllenson

I understand it must be incredibly frustrating to see JJJ perform well against Seton Hall for those who tried to disagree with my original post on this topic.

I understand many of the same posters who passionately disagree with me here, just as they did last year about Buzz's coaching, probably are tired of having our on court performance support my positions/arguments.

I understand people have gone to GREAT lengths to try to discredit the stats I provided in this original post - cherry picking as best they can to support their flawed position.

I understand many of these same people are the same who beat the drum of what an effective and solid and contributing player Derrick Wilson is to this team - just as they did last year - as did Buzz and now Wojo.  Meanwhile, the losses rack up at the highest rate in 15 years - and the only constant of the last two seasons has been Derrick Wilson playing 30+ minutes.  I am still curious about what Derrick is doing to "earn" all those minutes.  You'd think at some point he'd hit the bench in a game where he's 0-6 from the field, 1-4 from the FT line and commits 4 turnovers might lead to some bench time no?  But what happens instead??  He plays the whole game.  LOL.  And you think teammates don't get frustrated by the double standard that applies for the coaches favorite?!

I understand people are getting all excited about next year's recruiting class, but other than Henry Ellenson, it doesn't really matter if we signed 3 other Top 100 players as recruiting rankings don't matter.

I understand that it is beyond reason for coaches paid millions of dollars to make mistakes with regard to their decision making.  Even though it just happened to Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy.  Bill Belicheck had Tom Brady riding the bench behind his trusty vet, Drew Bledsoe.  Wojo benches a red hot Duane Wilson in the Georgetown game from the 7:50 mark to 3:35 mark of the game for no reason.  We've imploded down the stretch in multiple games this year, taking the air out of the ball and playing a conservative brand of basketball - spearheaded of course by our ultra conservative PG.

   



"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

g0lden3agle

#353
I honestly have never heard a single reputable basketball commentator treat "Minutes Played" as the cause and "Performance" as the effect as you so passionately defend.  How come that is?

edit: I'll add that people use the arguments "He's playing so well, why doesn't he get on the court more" or "man, we really overused him, and his production dropped towards the end as a result".  The "this guy NEEDS 25 minutes to perform well" is distinctly rare to find.


tower912

I-dunked-in-high-school-Rob-Lowe.    Nice. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

brewcity77

Quote from: g0lden3agle on February 10, 2015, 11:19:53 AM
I honestly have never heard a single reputable basketball commentator treat "Minutes Played" as the cause and "Performance" as the effect as you so passionately defend.  How come that is?

edit: I'll add that people use the arguments "He's playing so well, why doesn't he get on the court more" or "man, we really overused him, and his production dropped towards the end as a result".  The "this guy NEEDS 25 minutes to perform well" is distinctly rare to find.

It's a simple disconnect from logic, and attempts to create straw men to defend the argument because clearly it doesn't stand on its own.

The player desires minutes, which is the effect that is caused by good practice and performance. Only an idiot would argue that the minutes lead to good performance.

Why is no one arguing that the Mache brothers should get 25+ mpg? Do we not believe they would perform given the time? And if people think Derrick isn't performing, shouldn't he then play 35-40 minutes to improve his performance?

Logical fallacies supporting more logical fallacies.
This space reserved for a 2024 2025 National Championship celebration banner.

Canned Goods n Ammo

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 11:15:58 AM
I understand it must be incredibly frustrating to see JJJ perform well against Seton Hall for those who tried to disagree with my original post on this topic.

I understand many of the same posters who passionately disagree with me here, just as they did last year about Buzz's coaching, probably are tired of having our on court performance support my positions/arguments.

I understand people have gone to GREAT lengths to try to discredit the stats I provided in this original post - cherry picking as best they can to support their flawed position.

I understand many of these same people are the same who beat the drum of what an effective and solid and contributing player Derrick Wilson is to this team - just as they did last year - as did Buzz and now Wojo.  Meanwhile, the losses rack up at the highest rate in 15 years - and the only constant of the last two seasons has been Derrick Wilson playing 30+ minutes.  I am still curious about what Derrick is doing to "earn" all those minutes.  You'd think at some point he'd hit the bench in a game where he's 0-6 from the field, 1-4 from the FT line and commits 4 turnovers might lead to some bench time no?  But what happens instead??  He plays the whole game.  LOL.  And you think teammates don't get frustrated by the double standard that applies for the coaches favorite?!

I understand people are getting all excited about next year's recruiting class, but other than Henry Ellenson, it doesn't really matter if we signed 3 other Top 100 players as recruiting rankings don't matter.

I understand that it is beyond reason for coaches paid millions of dollars to make mistakes with regard to their decision making.  Even though it just happened to Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy.  Bill Belicheck had Tom Brady riding the bench behind his trusty vet, Drew Bledsoe.  Wojo benches a red hot Duane Wilson in the Georgetown game from the 7:50 mark to 3:35 mark of the game for no reason.  We've imploded down the stretch in multiple games this year, taking the air out of the ball and playing a conservative brand of basketball - spearheaded of course by our ultra conservative PG.

Not every coach is correct in every situation. We can all admit that. Great.

But, you're twisting yourself into knots trying to support your narrative.

Occams Razor.

From Wiki:
"For each accepted explanation of a phenomenon, there is always an infinite number of possible and more complex alternatives, because one can always burden failing explanations with ad hoc hypothesis to prevent them from being falsified; therefore, simpler theories are preferable to more complex ones because they are better testable and falsifiable"

wadesworld

Quote from: connie on February 10, 2015, 09:45:43 AM
Probably best to go back to the kids.  Any expectations you have of a logical or reasoned discussion on this (or any of the other corrupted threads) are doomed to failure.  

I understand how you get sucked in.  You see a point that you think you address with a reasoned example that might cause the poster to consider an alternate world view.  The poster comes back with a different example that sounds unlikely but might be possible, but doesn't really address the point you make.  The poster then provides some cherry picked stats to support a different but related  opinion while acting as if the causal link between the stat and his opinion incontrovertible. After you go back and forth a bit the examples that you are given become more and more outrageous.  Then you start to notice that the alleged motivations assigned to all of the identified failures of "subject x" and his nefarious deeds begin to conflict not just with the reality of "subject x's" past actions and statements, but with other examples the poster has provided.  

At this point you start to realize that you might as well be talking to someone that believes that the world is really governed by the Illuminati or the Trilateral Commission.  They put people like the 9/11 Truthers to shame in their slavish devotion to the fantasy that they are the ones "in the know" and that the rest of us are mindless lemmings whose every act and question are all a part of some grand form of world domination, like you are stuck in some pod hooked up to the Matrix and only they have swallowed the red pill.  You finally begin to realize that there is simply nothing that you are going to be able to do to break through the self worth the poster derives from their self-absorbed obsession, fueled by their continued demonstration that only they have the ability to see behind the curtain.  The sense of superiority over you they gain from living this fantasy cannot be dispelled.  Occasionally they will either go too far or their intransigence will start to turn people off, so they concede a few issues to try to reestablish their "reasonability."  That draws others back in, and starts the cycle all over again.

In the end, if you really need to visit an alternate universe, read your kids some Dr. Suess.  It will make about as much sense.

Spot on post.  But especially the last few sentences.

WarriorInNYC

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 11:15:58 AM
I understand it must be incredibly frustrating to see JJJ perform well against Seton Hall for those who tried to disagree with my original post on this topic.

Incredibly false.  I absolutely loved watching JjJ play extremely well against SHU.  It was a great sign of things to come.  We would not have won that game without him.

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 11:15:58 AM
I understand people have gone to GREAT lengths to try to discredit the stats I provided in this original post - cherry picking as best they can to support their flawed position.

I understand many of these same people are the same who beat the drum of what an effective and solid and contributing player Derrick Wilson is to this team - just as they did last year - as did Buzz and now Wojo.  Meanwhile, the losses rack up at the highest rate in 15 years - and the only constant of the last two seasons has been Derrick Wilson playing 30+ minutes.  I am still curious about what Derrick is doing to "earn" all those minutes.  You'd think at some point he'd hit the bench in a game where he's 0-6 from the field, 1-4 from the FT line and commits 4 turnovers might lead to some bench time no?  But what happens instead??  He plays the whole game.  LOL.  And you think teammates don't get frustrated by the double standard that applies for the coaches favorite?!

What about my first half performance stats were "cherry-picked"?  Can you please explain this?  There was a direct correlation to JjJ's first half performances to games where he received more than your magical 25 minutes played.

And lets go ahead and bring Derrick's stats up for the SHU game since you wanted to talk about it.  His first half stats were:
0/2
1 Point
4 Assists
1 Steal
1 Rebound
1 Block
1 Turnover

Don't see at all how those stats would not lead to Wojo benching him.  2 of his 4 TO's came in the last 4 minutes, 1 in the last minute.  Those are mistakes he currently does not make, and at the end of the game when ball security is a must.  Terrible for Derrick to make those mistakes, yes.  Not sure at all who you would have Wojo put in the game there in that situation.

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 11:15:58 AM
I understand that it is beyond reason for coaches paid millions of dollars to make mistakes with regard to their decision making.  Even though it just happened to Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy.  Bill Belicheck had Tom Brady riding the bench behind his trusty vet, Drew Bledsoe.  Wojo benches a red hot Duane Wilson in the Georgetown game from the 7:50 mark to 3:35 mark of the game for no reason.  We've imploded down the stretch in multiple games this year, taking the air out of the ball and playing a conservative brand of basketball - spearheaded of course by our ultra conservative PG.

Wojo has made plenty of questionable coaching decisions.  Not continuing to ride Duane against G'Town being one of them.  Not switching to man against X was another in my mind.  Not bringing Luke back in against SHU early enough or fouling late another.  Nobody here is denying the man is making mistakes in his first year of coaching.  Continuing to play Derrick when he provides consistent, low scoring minutes while providing distribution and defense is not one of them.  Not playing JjJ more than 25 minutes in games where he is struggling is not another.

GooooMarquette

Quote from: connie on February 10, 2015, 09:45:43 AM
Probably best to go back to the kids.  Any expectations you have of a logical or reasoned discussion on this (or any of the other corrupted threads) are doomed to failure.  

I understand how you get sucked in.  You see a point that you think you address with a reasoned example that might cause the poster to consider an alternate world view.  The poster comes back with a different example that sounds unlikely but might be possible, but doesn't really address the point you make.  The poster then provides some cherry picked stats to support a different but related  opinion while acting as if the causal link between the stat and his opinion incontrovertible. After you go back and forth a bit the examples that you are given become more and more outrageous.  Then you start to notice that the alleged motivations assigned to all of the identified failures of "subject x" and his nefarious deeds begin to conflict not just with the reality of "subject x's" past actions and statements, but with other examples the poster has provided.  

At this point you start to realize that you might as well be talking to someone that believes that the world is really governed by the Illuminati or the Trilateral Commission.  They put people like the 9/11 Truthers to shame in their slavish devotion to the fantasy that they are the ones "in the know" and that the rest of us are mindless lemmings whose every act and question are all a part of some grand form of world domination, like you are stuck in some pod hooked up to the Matrix and only they have swallowed the red pill.  You finally begin to realize that there is simply nothing that you are going to be able to do to break through the self worth the poster derives from their self-absorbed obsession, fueled by their continued demonstration that only they have the ability to see behind the curtain.  The sense of superiority over you they gain from living this fantasy cannot be dispelled.  Occasionally they will either go too far or their intransigence will start to turn people off, so they concede a few issues to try to reestablish their "reasonability."  That draws others back in, and starts the cycle all over again.

In the end, if you really need to visit an alternate universe, read your kids some Dr. Suess.  It will make about as much sense.

This needs to go alongside Ammo's beatdown of Ners in the Scoop Hall of Fame.

TSmith34, Inc.

Quote from: GooooMarquette on February 10, 2015, 12:18:20 PM
This needs to go alongside Ammo's beatdown of Ners in the Scoop Hall of Fame.

Despite which, he STILL insists he knows more than the PR professionals...along with his supposed high school experience giving him more knowledge than coaches that played high-major and professional ball. And claims Wojo is lying to steal JJJ's glory.  And Buzz was sticking it to the administration and intentionally throwing games.

Seriously y'all, you're arguing with a mentally unbalanced person.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

NersEllenson

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 10, 2015, 12:05:48 PM
It's a simple disconnect from logic, and attempts to create straw men to defend the argument because clearly it doesn't stand on its own.

The player desires minutes, which is the effect that is caused by good practice and performance. Only an idiot would argue that the minutes lead to good performance.

Why is no one arguing that the Mache brothers should get 25+ mpg? Do we not believe they would perform given the time? And if people think Derrick isn't performing, shouldn't he then play 35-40 minutes to improve his performance?

Logical fallacies supporting more logical fallacies.

Newsflash:  Basketball is not a science, it is an art.  Logic of the academia world doesn't apply.  You cannot apply PURE logic to an art.

As I've said 100 times, just because a player comes into a game and misses his first two shots and has a turnover - it does NOT mean he is going to suck for the whole game.

You guys take such a narrow view - to think that JJJ or any other player - can only have a good game if they start the game playing well from the tip.  That just isn't how it works.  Period.  Not that hard to understand.  Do you really believe at this level with all the time these guys have played basketball, their skill level is so variable and volatile from game to game??  As if a guy a this level starts a game poorly, he is completely incapable of turning it around??

The 7 game sample size of games where JJJ played 25+ includes his "clunkers" of Ohio State and NJIT.  A guy of course isn't always going to perform to his averages.  Yet, it is far more likely you will get 13.5ppg, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2.5 steals and 2.5 turnovers out of JJJ if you play him 25+.

Those numbers are combined from low major to high major competition.  They are what they are.  And it is ridiculous to think the Xavier benching somehow brought on improved performance from JJJ.  It hasn't.  The numbers don't support that position whatsoever.

But, I understand the same usual posters who want to back Wojo on every single god dang decision he makes simply refuse to believe he can be beyond making mistakes with regard to his playing time/personnel decisions.  Ultimately, our record is a reflection of his decision making.  I don't believe it is any coincidence that we lost all 5 games starting with Xavier when Wojo limited JJJ to 0 minutes to a max of 17.  Nor do I think it is a coincidence that when Wojo gave JJJ exactly 7 minutes 10 days prior against Seton Hall and we got blown off the floor at home, yet 10 days later when he plays him 35 minutes we win on the road (without our best player).

"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

Canned Goods n Ammo

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 12:30:57 PM
But, I understand the same usual posters who want to back Wojo on every single god dang decision he makes simply refuse to believe he can be beyond making mistakes with regard to his playing time/personnel decisions. 

Just so you're clear, nobody has ever f*cking said this.


GooooMarquette

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 11:15:58 AM
I understand it must be incredibly frustrating to see JJJ perform well against Seton Hall for those who tried to disagree with my original post on this topic.


This is yet another example of you being wrong.

Any true MU fan - there are many of us here - are thrilled to see a backup step up and have a great game when a starter goes down.  Just like any true MU fan must have been thrilled when Derrick stepped up after Junior got injured against Pitt a couple years ago.

You are so focused on the individual players you like vs the ones you don't like that you can't simply be happy when any MU player does well.

mu03eng

#365
Took Ners off block so I could do this....oh and I can't believe it took me so long to ignore him  ;D

Anatomy of a Ners argument:

Newsflash:  Basketball is not a science, it is an art.  Logic of the academia world doesn't apply.  You cannot apply PURE logic to an art. Obfuscating to muddy the waters initially

As I've said 100 times, just because a player comes into a game and misses his first two shots and has a turnover - it does NOT mean he is going to suck for the whole game. Statement that isn't wrong or right, merely irrelevant to the conversation

You guys take such a narrow view - to think that JJJ or any other player - can only have a good game if they start the game playing well from the tip.  That just isn't how it works.  Period. Opinion stated as a fact with no evidence other than high school "experience" Not that hard to understand.  Do you really believe at this level with all the time these guys have played basketball, their skill level is so variable and volatile from game to game??  As if a guy a this level starts a game poorly, he is completely incapable of turning it around??

The 7 game sample size of games where JJJ played 25+ includes his "clunkers" of Ohio State and NJIT.  A guy of course isn't always going to perform to his averages.  Yet, it is far more likely you will get 13.5ppg, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2.5 steals and 2.5 turnovers out of JJJ if you play him 25+. Opinion stated as fact, with a dusting of revisionist history because statistics aren't mailable for the argument present as facts to work.  Abandon facts when convenient

Those numbers are combined from low major to high major competition.  They are what they are.  And it is ridiculous to think the Xavier benching somehow brought on improved performance from JJJ. Opinion with no basis in anything relevant, stated as fact It hasn't.  The numbers don't support that position whatsoever. Revisiting statistics as true because they support this portion of the argument

But, I understand the same usual posters who want to back Wojo on every single god dang decision he makes simply refuse to believe he can be beyond making mistakes with regard to his playing time/personnel decisions. STRAWMAN ALERT STRAWMAN ALERT Ultimately, our record is a reflection of his decision making. Yet another "factual" opinion  I don't believe it is any coincidence that we lost all 5 games starting with Xavier when Wojo limited JJJ to 0 minutes to a max of 17. Opinions based on correlation not causation but presented as fact  Nor do I think it is a coincidence that when Wojo gave JJJ exactly 7 minutes 10 days prior against Seton Hall and we got blown off the floor at home, yet 10 days later when he plays him 35 minutes we win on the road (without our best player). A mild dose of paranoia mixed with wistful hope his opinion is correct
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

g0lden3agle

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 12:30:57 PM
Newsflash:  Basketball is not a science, it is an art.  Logic of the academia world doesn't apply.  You cannot apply PURE logic to an art.

As I've said 100 times, just because a player comes into a game and misses his first two shots and has a turnover - it does NOT mean he is going to suck for the whole game.

You guys take such a narrow view - to think that JJJ or any other player - can only have a good game if they start the game playing well from the tip.  That just isn't how it works.  Period.  Not that hard to understand.  Do you really believe at this level with all the time these guys have played basketball, their skill level is so variable and volatile from game to game??  As if a guy a this level starts a game poorly, he is completely incapable of turning it around??

The 7 game sample size of games where JJJ played 25+ includes his "clunkers" of Ohio State and NJIT.  A guy of course isn't always going to perform to his averages.  Yet, it is far more likely you will get 13.5ppg, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2.5 steals and 2.5 turnovers out of JJJ if you play him 25+.

Those numbers are combined from low major to high major competition.  They are what they are.  And it is ridiculous to think the Xavier benching somehow brought on improved performance from JJJ.  It hasn't.  The numbers don't support that position whatsoever.

But, I understand the same usual posters who want to back Wojo on every single god dang decision he makes simply refuse to believe he can be beyond making mistakes with regard to his playing time/personnel decisions.  Ultimately, our record is a reflection of his decision making.  I don't believe it is any coincidence that we lost all 5 games starting with Xavier when Wojo limited JJJ to 0 minutes to a max of 17.  Nor do I think it is a coincidence that when Wojo gave JJJ exactly 7 minutes 10 days prior against Seton Hall and we got blown off the floor at home, yet 10 days later when he plays him 35 minutes we win on the road (without our best player).



I'll give you JJJ only getting 7 minutes vs. SH.  Seems like with only 8 guys on the roster to shut someone down with less than double digit minutes is a bit premature.  But there have been plenty of games this year where Wojo has stuck with him for 15+ minutes and the production just isn't there.  That should be plenty of time to get into the flow of the game.

jsglow

#367

Stop it 03eng.  'Connie.'


MerrittsMustache

I'm lifting my self-imposed Ners ban for this one.

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 12:30:57 PM
As I've said 100 times, just because a player comes into a game and misses his first two shots and has a turnover - it does NOT mean he is going to suck for the whole game....You guys take such a narrow view - to think that JJJ or any other player - can only have a good game if they start the game playing well from the tip.  That just isn't how it works.  Period.  Not that hard to understand...As if a guy a this level starts a game poorly, he is completely incapable of turning it around??

When has anyone made the argument that if a player begins the game poorly, he'll have a bad game? Seriously, when has ANYONE made that argument on these boards?

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 12:30:57 PM
Do you really believe at this level with all the time these guys have played basketball, their skill level is so variable and volatile from game to game?? 

Steve Taylor vs GT: 32 min, 2 pts, 2 reb, 1 blk
Steve Taylor vs MSU (the next day): 33 min, 10 pts, 7 reb, 3 asts, 2 stls,

Steve Taylor vs Ten: 26 min, 4 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast, 1 blk
Steve Taylor vs StJ: 25 min, 13 pts, 9 reb

Steve Taylor vs Creighton: 18 min, 0 pts, 3 reb
Steve Taylor vs SHU: 18 min, 8 pts, 5 reb

In roughly the same number of minutes, shouldn't he have roughly the same production? Or is their some volatility to this art?


Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 12:30:57 PM
But, I understand the same usual posters who want to back Wojo on every single god dang decision he makes simply refuse to believe he can be beyond making mistakes with regard to his playing time/personnel decisions.

Once again, no one said this. However, I will say that there is a 100% chance that Wojo knows more about basketball and how to coach a D1 team than you or anyone else on this board.


Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 12:30:57 PM
I don't believe it is any coincidence that we lost all 5 games starting with Xavier when Wojo limited JJJ to 0 minutes to a max of 17.  Nor do I think it is a coincidence that when Wojo gave JJJ exactly 7 minutes 10 days prior against Seton Hall and we got blown off the floor at home, yet 10 days later when he plays him 35 minutes we win on the road (without our best player).

Against SHU, Marquette nearly blew a 9-point lead in 90 seconds, scored 13 points less than their season average, shot 24% worse from 3 than their season average, gave up 5 more offensive rebounds than their season average, had 7 fewer assists than their season average, had nearly 2 more TOs than their season average but happened to play a team that missed 14 layups. A win is a win and I'll certainly take it, but let's not pretend like JJJ's presence sparked the team to a dominant performance.

JJJ had a good week of practice and stepped up to have an excellent game when the team needed him. He seems like a good kid and he has a lot of talent. I hope he continues to work hard and understands how that hard work translates into more PT and more production.

NersEllenson

Quote from: jsglow on February 10, 2015, 01:00:47 PM


LOL - A real gem.  Basketball is an art.  Deal with it.  And if you really don't believe a guy can't start a game "poorly" and not improve and go on to have a good game - you aren't very bright.

You speak to that as "an opinion stated as fact with no evidence other than high school experience."  I could give you 1,000s of basketball games where a guy misses his first two or three shots in a game and goes on to score 20+ for a game.  So..guess what...it IS a fact.

You know what else is a fact?  The benching JJJ got against Xavier hasn't lead to any improved performance.  Yet you want to assert this is "opinion with no basis in anything relevant, stated as fact?"
Except the stats all point toward my conclusion as a fact.  6 games prior to benching of 25+ his numbers were solid.  Just as they were against Seton Hall when once again Wojo took off the shackles.

"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

MerrittsMustache

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 01:11:31 PM
I could give you 1,000s of basketball games where a guy misses his first two or three shots in a game and goes on to score 20+ for a game.


Do it!

MU82

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 11:15:58 AM
I understand it must be incredibly frustrating to see JJJ perform well against Seton Hall for those who tried to disagree with my original post on this topic.

I understand many of the same posters who passionately disagree with me here, just as they did last year about Buzz's coaching, probably are tired of having our on court performance support my positions/arguments.

I understand people have gone to GREAT lengths to try to discredit the stats I provided in this original post - cherry picking as best they can to support their flawed position.

I understand many of these same people are the same who beat the drum of what an effective and solid and contributing player Derrick Wilson is to this team - just as they did last year - as did Buzz and now Wojo.  Meanwhile, the losses rack up at the highest rate in 15 years - and the only constant of the last two seasons has been Derrick Wilson playing 30+ minutes.  I am still curious about what Derrick is doing to "earn" all those minutes.  You'd think at some point he'd hit the bench in a game where he's 0-6 from the field, 1-4 from the FT line and commits 4 turnovers might lead to some bench time no?  But what happens instead??  He plays the whole game.  LOL.  And you think teammates don't get frustrated by the double standard that applies for the coaches favorite?!

I understand people are getting all excited about next year's recruiting class, but other than Henry Ellenson, it doesn't really matter if we signed 3 other Top 100 players as recruiting rankings don't matter.

I understand that it is beyond reason for coaches paid millions of dollars to make mistakes with regard to their decision making.  Even though it just happened to Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy.  Bill Belicheck had Tom Brady riding the bench behind his trusty vet, Drew Bledsoe.  Wojo benches a red hot Duane Wilson in the Georgetown game from the 7:50 mark to 3:35 mark of the game for no reason.  We've imploded down the stretch in multiple games this year, taking the air out of the ball and playing a conservative brand of basketball - spearheaded of course by our ultra conservative PG.


Of course coaches make mistakes all the time, and I am among the many non-conspiracy theorists who have criticized Wojo for the mistakes I believe he has made in a mostly good (my opinion) rookie season as coach.

But you and TW claim that more than "mistakes" have been at the root of his insidious mistreatment of JJJ.

So, once again, Mr. Avoid The Question, what facts can you present to provide insight as to Wojo's motivation for cruelly shunning JJJ?

As for Belichick not letting Brady off the bench until Bledsoe got hurt, well, that strategy obviously turned out horribly for the Patriots in the long term. The mentally weak Brady never amounted to anything, and the Pats never sniffed a championship.
"It's not how white men fight." - Tucker Carlson

"Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." - George Washington

NersEllenson

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on February 10, 2015, 01:04:49 PM
I'm lifting my self-imposed Ners ban for this one.

When has anyone made the argument that if a player begins the game poorly, he'll have a bad game? Seriously, when has ANYONE made that argument on these boards?

Steve Taylor vs GT: 32 min, 2 pts, 2 reb, 1 blk
Steve Taylor vs MSU (the next day): 33 min, 10 pts, 7 reb, 3 asts, 2 stls,

Steve Taylor vs Ten: 26 min, 4 pts, 2 reb, 1 ast, 1 blk
Steve Taylor vs StJ: 25 min, 13 pts, 9 reb

Steve Taylor vs Creighton: 18 min, 0 pts, 3 reb
Steve Taylor vs SHU: 18 min, 8 pts, 5 reb

In roughly the same number of minutes, shouldn't he have roughly the same production? Or is their some volatility to this art?


Once again, no one said this. However, I will say that there is a 100% chance that Wojo knows more about basketball and how to coach a D1 team than you or anyone else on this board.


Against SHU, Marquette nearly blew a 9-point lead in 90 seconds, scored 13 points less than their season average, shot 24% worse from 3 than their season average, gave up 5 more offensive rebounds than their season average, had 7 fewer assists than their season average, had nearly 2 more TOs than their season average but happened to play a team that missed 14 layups. A win is a win and I'll certainly take it, but let's not pretend like JJJ's presence sparked the team to a dominant performance.

JJJ had a good week of practice and stepped up to have an excellent game when the team needed him. He seems like a good kid and he has a lot of talent. I hope he continues to work hard and understands how that hard work translates into more PT and more production.


Where have you been Merritt??  This whole debate on JJJ is the fact the opposition to my point are beyond FIRM in their belief that the only reason JJJ plays better when he gets 25+ are because he started by playing well.  The argument is:  When JJJ plays less than 25 he isn't playing well, therefore he isn't earning any more time.  

And again, for the 101st time - Just because a guy comes into a game and misses his first few shots doesn't mean he's going to be bad for the whole game.  The opposition to my point of view is suggesting JJJ doesn't "deserve or earn" more minutes because he starts a game poorly.

As for your Steve Taylor argument, it's a good one.  However, I do believe that when you have radically inconsistent playing time, it leads to radical inconsistency in production.  When you have no clear role, no consistent playing time, it is foolish to expect consistent production.  And, as I said about JJJ - just because you give him 25+ does NOT mean he is going to never have a clunker of a game - it can happen to anyone.  But, on the whole, on the balance, he will produce closer to his averages of 13ppg, 4, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5 if he plays 25+

It is for the above reason that Derrick and Jake drove me nuts.  The had the perfect environment for production, yet still failed to produce.  They got consistent playing time, always did, game after game after game - yet even with all of this consistency, they produced very little.  They proved beyond a reasonable doubt what you would get from them.  My frustration last year, and now again this year - is you have other guys who can take those minutes that show much more potential and overall ability, yet they aren't getting the opportunity to play 3, 4 games in a row max minutes - meanwhile the team continues to lose riding the veteran/upperclassmen.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013

mu03eng

Quote from: NersEllenson on February 10, 2015, 01:11:31 PM
You speak to that as "an opinion stated as fact with no evidence other than high school experience."  I could give you 1,000s of basketball games where a guy misses his first two or three shots in a game and goes on to score 20+ for a game.  So..guess what...it IS a fact.

It's not fact, just because you can find some data that supports your opinion while ignoring other data that does not, doesn't make it fact.

I'm willing to bet if we did a statistical analysis, we would find that a person went on to have a good game as often as a bad when missing their first couple of shots....know what that means?  IT IS STATISTICALLY IRRELEVANT AND THEREFORE NOT FACT.  (see I can present theories as facts too, oh and Henry Sugar the Stat signal just went up  ;D)

Also no one said that if you miss your first couple of shots you are going to have a bad game.  People have said, if you make mental mistakes, you sit for a bit and then try and see if you don't make those mental mistakes again.  So really I screwed up, that was a strawman mixed with opinion stated as fact...my bad  :D
"A Plan? Oh man, I hate plans. That means were gonna have to do stuff. Can't we just have a strategy......or a mission statement."

NersEllenson

Quote from: MerrittsMustache on February 10, 2015, 01:12:55 PM
Do it!


LOL - I've already wasted enough time debating with the usual idiots on this topic.  Their point of view is so absurd it's beyond funny and ludicrous.

And I know, you know Merritt - that it is true:  A guy can start a game poorly and go on to have a very good basketball game.
"I'm not sure Cadougan would fix the problems on this team. I'm not even convinced he would be better for this team than DeWil is."

BrewCity77, December 8, 2013