Conference Balance, Bad?

[forgetful]

Last year the Big East was a very solid conference top to bottom, but didn't get a lot of teams into the tournament.  To an extent the teams beat up on each other during the season, and the lack of clear top teams made it difficult to get the really eye-popping good wins.

Are we possibly going to run into the same scenario again this year, where conference balance ends up hurting the conference come selection Sunday.  Right now the RPI's for the conference are:

Villanova          9
Seton Hall      19
Saint Johns    24
Xavier            48
Providence     55
Butler            61   (win over UNC)
Georgetown   65
Marquette      84
Creighton      120  (win over Oklahoma)
Depaul          193

Of that list only Depaul can be considered a bad team.  Even Creighton with an RPI of 120 is very very good.  That will make finishing above .500 difficult for teams 2-9.  Also with only Nova as a marquee top 10'ish team.  There aren't the opportunities for big wins. 

Contrast that with the ACC:

Duke               5
Virginia           7
Louisville         8
UNC              16
Georgia Tech  43
NC. State      45
Syracuse        53
Miami            72

But all the rest between 102-257.  That leaves 7 members of the conference with RPI's above 100.  That gives them the chance to build up wins on cupcakes.  It also gives a team like Syracuse, whose resume is similar to ours, a chance at big wins against Duke, Virginia, Louisville and UNC.  The other conferences sans the Big12 have similar breakdowns.

In the end, is conference balance going to hurt the Big East again?

[brandx]

Miami is way over rated here. I'll be surprised if they stay in the top 100

[PGsHeroes32]

A lot of top 100 wins on the table though.

Acc has like 5 teams at least that are catoatrophic losses and do nothing but hurt your RPI to win.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Miami is way over rated here. I'll be surprised if they stay in the top 100

Miami got absolutely smoked at home by the Colonels of EKU 72-44.  Let's see if Pitt can pull off their close one versus Oakland.  ACC basketball is Duke.

[PGsHeroes32]

Miami got absolutely smoked at home by the Colonels of EKU 72-44.  Let's see if Pitt can pull off their close one versus Oakland.  ACC basketball is Duke.

Uhhh UL, Virginia and unc are all curious what your BAC is currently?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Uhhh UL, Virginia and unc are all curious what your BAC is currently?

Two tall boys high.  UVA well coached and play well.  UL untested and has never made the ACC travel circuit. I think they are not as talented as other Slick teams.  Duke and UK way ahead of the pack.  Not even close. 

[Atticus]

Two tall boys high.  UVA well coached and play well.  UL untested and has never made the ACC travel circuit. I think they are not as talented as other Slick teams.  Duke and UK way ahead of the pack.  Not even close. 

Ok...so where does that put the BE this year? Our highest rated team just went into overtime with a bad syracuse team that won't make a post-season tournament. Who are our true contenders that can make noise in March? Mover and December wins are cute but we lack a true power.

[PGsHeroes32]

Ok...so where does that put the BE this year? Our highest rated team just went into overtime with a bad syracuse team that won't make a post-season tournament. Who are our true contenders that can make noise in March? Mover and December wins are cute but we lack a true power.

Yeah exactly. While Duke is clearly the best team in that conference right now. They have 2 more super impressive final 4 caliber teams and then UNC who while overrated to start the year...is a very talented 4th team.

The bottom of that conference is the bad part. Just awful

[Atticus]

Yeah exactly. While Duke is clearly the best team in that conference right now. They have 2 more super impressive final 4 caliber teams and then UNC who while overrated to start the year...is a very talented 4th team.

The bottom of that conference is the bad part. Just awful

Completely agree. Ok...so we have a competitive middle and bottom feeder group in our conference. Swell. The majority of America cares about title contenders. Do we have one? Duke will destroy syracuse...twice.

I guess people don't understand that America doesn't time into college basketball until March madness. Louisville/Duke/UVA vs. Nova? Yikes.

[Tums Festival]

Last year the Big East was a very solid conference top to bottom, but didn't get a lot of teams into the tournament.  To an extent the teams beat up on each other during the season, and the lack of clear top teams made it difficult to get the really eye-popping good wins.

Are we possibly going to run into the same scenario again this year, where conference balance ends up hurting the conference come selection Sunday.  Right now the RPI's for the conference are:

Villanova          9
Seton Hall      19
Saint Johns    24
Xavier            48
Providence     55
Butler            61   (win over UNC)
Georgetown   65
Marquette      84
Creighton      120  (win over Oklahoma)
Depaul          193

Of that list only Depaul can be considered a bad team.  Even Creighton with an RPI of 120 is very very good.  That will make finishing above .500 difficult for teams 2-9.  Also with only Nova as a marquee top 10'ish team.  There aren't the opportunities for big wins. 

Contrast that with the ACC:

Duke               5
Virginia           7
Louisville         8
UNC              16
Georgia Tech  43
NC. State      45
Syracuse        53
Miami            72

But all the rest between 102-257.  That leaves 7 members of the conference with RPI's above 100.  That gives them the chance to build up wins on cupcakes.  It also gives a team like Syracuse, whose resume is similar to ours, a chance at big wins against Duke, Virginia, Louisville and UNC.  The other conferences sans the Big12 have similar breakdowns.

In the end, is conference balance going to hurt the Big East again?

I get what you're saying here. It could very well be much like last year where the teams in the middle cancelled each other out. Next year will be interesting because some younger teams should be in a position to step up.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Ok...so where does that put the BE this year? Our highest rated team just went into overtime with a bad syracuse team that won't make a post-season tournament. Who are our true contenders that can make noise in March? Mover and December wins are cute but we lack a true power.

I think the Big East is indeed more balanced this year but the improvement comes the bottom and middle, not the top. Nova will win with experience but with holes.

The ACC is worse in the middle. Duke is elite. UVA can be very good but not as strong as last year. UL young and Harrell a head case...I think playing on the road gets them.  They have UK at home so that will be litmus. After that the ACC is a bunch of up and down teams (including UNC who will be good but not great) but with some poor bottom programs to feed on for RPI. ND may surprise as their starters are solid.

B1G is Bucky who has an advantaged schedule. The B12 is the strongest overall but KU not as strong at guard to be elite. SEC is UK with Florida as usual. PAC way down as yesterday's UCLA pasting showed.

[bilsu]

3 bids fro Big East and 4.5 bids for ACC. At 45 you are a bubble team. Above 50 ypou are not going.

[mattyv1908]

I think the Big East is indeed more balanced this year but the improvement comes the bottom and middle, not the top. Nova will win with experience but with holes.

The ACC is worse in the middle. Duke is elite. UVA can be very good but not as strong as last year. UL young and Harrell a head case...I think playing on the road gets them.  They have UK at home so that will be litmus. After that the ACC is a bunch of up and down teams (including UNC who will be good but not great) but with some poor bottom programs to feed on for RPI. ND may surprise as their starters are solid.

B1G is Bucky who has an advantaged schedule. The B12 is the strongest overall but KU not as strong at guard to be elite. SEC is UK with Florida as usual. PAC way down as yesterday's UCLA pasting showed.

Pac 12 is not way down.  UCLA is down.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Pac 12 is not way down.  UCLA is down.

#6 in Pomeroy vs. #4 last year. As conference.  UW and Utah up.  ASU, UCLA and Oregon down...and everyone else (besides AZ obviously) middling to poor. Cal has Bucky upcoming so that will be a key indicator there if they can move up.  Should be an interesting defensive match-up.

[forgetful]

Ok...so where does that put the BE this year? Our highest rated team just went into overtime with a bad syracuse team that won't make a post-season tournament. Who are our true contenders that can make noise in March? Mover and December wins are cute but we lack a true power.

I think Syracuse will end up making the tournament.  They have enough talent to win a few they shouldn't and will have the opportunity in the ACC to do so against very highly ranked teams.  They will hold serve against the horrible teams at the bottom to make their record look acceptable and have a winning record in the ACC.

Big East teams will struggle to .500 and won't get the same upset opportunities.

[Johnny B]

I think Syracuse will end up making the tournament.  They have enough talent to win a few they shouldn't and will have the opportunity in the ACC to do so against very highly ranked teams.  They will hold serve against the horrible teams at the bottom to make their record look acceptable and have a winning record in the ACC.

Big East teams will struggle to .500 and won't get the same upset opportunities.

Bingo. The BE has played ok but
Not
Good enogh to get multiple ranked teams into
Conference play. The conference balance will likely result in nova being the only
Ranked team. I can see the johnnies dropping a few they shouldn't and dropping out
Of the top25 and don't get me started with butler,
They Are just bad I mean idk who ranked
These guys but they are not a top 25 team. I see them finishing behind us at 8th or 9th in conference.

[4everwarriors]

Miami got absolutely smoked at home by the Colonels of EKU 72-44.  Let's see if Pitt can pull off their close one versus Oakland.  ACC basketball is Duke.

Yeah but, Bumstead just entered the house, aina?

[Johnny B]

Seton Hall getting smashed by Georgia. Yikes, I thought they might have a decent year.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yeah but, Bumstead just entered the house, aina?

Yep, through the basement escape hatch...

[muwarrior69]

Seton Hall getting smashed by Georgia. Yikes, I thought they might have a decent year.

9-2 is not decent? I wish we were 9-2. They have a good team and will be tough to beat. Every team has one of those games and winning on the road is not easy.

[Johnny B]

They have beaten anyone good let alone ranked. There 2 losses were to a good Wichita St. team and GA and they arnt that good. Both losses we complete blowouts.

[MUMountin]

They have beaten anyone good let alone ranked. There 2 losses were to a good Wichita St. team and GA and they arnt that good. Both losses we complete blowouts.

FWIW, Joe Lunardi has UGA in his next four out, somehow.

That said, Seton Hall missed on their best two chances at decent wins.  Their best wins are Illinois St and George Washington, and otherwise have beat up on cupcakes (like South Florida).

[Golden Avalanche]

Two tall boys high.  UVA well coached and play well.  UL untested and has never made the ACC travel circuit. I think they are not as talented as other Slick teams.  Duke and UK way ahead of the pack.  Not even close. 

So while you take a crap on the strength of the ACC you then seem to believe that the ACC "travel circuit" will be difficult for Louisville. That seems contradictory. Not to mention Louisville boasts the best basketball coach in the country. I think the Cards will be amongst the final eight teams.

[Benny B]

Of that list only Depaul can be considered a bad team.  Even Creighton with an RPI of 120 is very very good.  That will make finishing above .500 difficult for teams 2-9.  Also with only Nova as a marquee top 10'ish team.  There aren't the opportunities for big wins. 

...

But all the rest between 102-257.  That leaves 7 members of the [ACC] with RPI's above 100.  That gives [the 102-257 teams] the chance to build up wins on cupcakes.  It also gives a team like Syracuse, whose resume is similar to ours, a chance at big wins against Duke, Virginia, Louisville and UNC.  The other conferences sans the Big12 have similar breakdowns.

If you're a bubble team going into conference play, which would you rather have more of?

1) Opportunities for good wins
or
2) Opportunities for bad losses

[MarquetteDano]

One thing you always have to remember is that the ACC has 60% more teams than the Big East.  So I always make sure to multiple whatever the Big East has by 1.6 to compare to the ACC.

We basically have one "contender" in Nova.  So that is 1.6 contenders.  ACC has four contenders so they definitely win that battle.

We have about five tournament teams so that is 8.  ACC will get about 7-8 teams in the tourney so we are about equal on that one.

We have 2 100+ RPI teams so that is 3.2  The ACC has a mind boggling 6, though I think one will end up inside the Top 100 so that is five.  Definitely advantage Big East.

They have more contenders.  Both have about equal number of teams making the tourney.  They have more crap at the bottom.