Conference Balance, Bad?

[Dr. Blackheart]

So while you take a crap on the strength of the ACC you then seem to believe that the ACC "travel circuit" will be difficult for Louisville. That seems contradictory. Not to mention Louisville boasts the best basketball coach in the country. I think the Cards will be amongst the final eight teams.

I didn't take a "crap" on the ACC, I said they were down...although the bottom of that conference is crap with a lot of easy wins to get more teams in.  

As to the "travel circuit", UL has never regularly played in these venues. Their travel schedules are not known, there are not as big airports to travel too, they are the furthest western team, there are no short bus rides between schools that don't mess as much with student athlete academic schedules. They are disadvantaged with travel and are a relatively young team. Pitino has played most of his OOC games at home versus previous years. The road will be a big adjustment for them the first season through the grinder, IMO.

I am sure they will be a very good team, but not great IMO. UVA is so great defensively, they can hit that elite level. Will be an interesting conference to watch this season with all the shifting pieces and so many HOF coaches.

[Golden Avalanche]

I didn't take a "crap" on the ACC, I said they were down...although the bottom of that conference is crap with a lot of easy wins to get more teams in.  

As to the "travel circuit", UL has never regularly played in these venues. Their travel schedules are not known, there are not as big airports to travel too, they are the furthest western team, there are no short bus rides between schools that don't mess as much with student athlete academic schedules. They are disadvantaged with travel and are a relatively young team. Pitino has played most of his OOC games at home versus previous years. The road will be a big adjustment for them the first season through the grinder, IMO.

I am sure they will be a very good team, but not great IMO. UVA is so great defensively, they can hit that elite level. Will be an interesting conference to watch this season with all the shifting pieces and so many HOF coaches.

Writing "ACC basketball is Duke" is taking a crap on the conference. You then proceeded to take the next two best teams and chopped them down to size with nothing more then general cliches. That's taking a crap on the conference. It's no problem since we're all Big East apologists but don't try to sober away your tall boy writing.

As for the Cards, the travel thing is bunk. That's why you have administration and support staff so they make the travel schedules known. They've been far enough west or south in both the Big East and AAC not to be stunned by the distances. And, when is the last time teams regularly took a bus to a game. This isn't 1971. As for academic schedules being disturbed? Got me laughing.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Writing "ACC basketball is Duke" is taking a crap on the conference. You then proceeded to take the next two best teams and chopped them down to size with nothing more then general cliches. That's taking a crap on the conference. It's no problem since we're all Big East apologists but don't try to sober away your tall boy writing.

As for the Cards, the travel thing is bunk. That's why you have administration and support staff so they make the travel schedules known. They've been far enough west or south in both the Big East and AAC not to be stunned by the distances. And, when is the last time teams regularly took a bus to a game. This isn't 1971. As for academic schedules being disturbed? Got me laughing.

Sorry, didn't know this was a message board where one can express their opinions. Saying that Duke is elite is crapping on the conference? Where did I say the Big East is so good? It is rather middling. Duke, UNC and NCST are short trips away from each other. If you don't think travel fatigue will be an issue, fine.

What is your esteemed analysis of the conferences?

[forgetful]

If you're a bubble team going into conference play, which would you rather have more of?

1) Opportunities for good wins
or
2) Opportunities for bad losses

Great question.  I would rather have an opportunity for good wins.  The committee always seems to look over a bad loss or two, provided you've proven you can defeat top teams.

[Golden Avalanche]

Sorry, didn't know this was a message board where one can express their opinions. Saying that Duke is elite is crapping on the conference? Where did I say the Big East is so good? It is rather middling. Duke, UNC and NCST are short trips away from each other. If you don't think travel fatigue will be an issue, fine.

What is your esteemed analysis of the conferences?

Great display of opinion victimization. Must have been a manic Monday.

Which conference do you want? I only have 15 minutes until I shut down my computer for the night.

[MUMountin]

If you're a bubble team going into conference play, which would you rather have more of?

1) Opportunities for good wins
or
2) Opportunities for bad losses

Ugh--definitely number #1, with tonight as a reminder.

Going into tonight's game, we were #84 in RP.

After tonight's WIN, we dropped ten places to #94.

So frustrating to keep winning games and actually drop in the RPI. 

[MarquetteDano]

Ugh--definitely number #1, with tonight as a reminder.

Going into tonight's game, we were #84 in RP.

After tonight's WIN, we dropped ten places to #94.

So frustrating to keep winning games and actually drop in the RPI. 

No doubt annoying.  Our non-con SOS is pretty solid.  After the Big East season, there is almost no scenario where we will not finish top 25 in overall SOS.  Now we just have to win games.  Preferably away games for RPI purposes.

[Benny B]

Ugh--definitely number #1, with tonight as a reminder.

Going into tonight's game, we were #84 in RP.

After tonight's WIN, we dropped ten places to #94.

So frustrating to keep winning games and actually drop in the RPI. 

That was a non-conference game though... the question posed was specifically with respect to in-conference play where a) some of the "bad" RPI matchups will be on the road (road wins > home wins) and b) a school like MU has near-complete control over who its opponents are in OOC play, i.e. if MU wants to avoid RPI drops after wins during OOC, it simply can schedule fewer cupcakes... you can't say, "I don't want to play DePaul at home this year" to help your RPI when it comes to the BE season.

[Texas Western]

That was a non-conference game though... the question posed was specifically with respect to in-conference play where a) some of the "bad" RPI matchups will be on the road (road wins > home wins) and b) a school like MU has near-complete control over who its opponents are in OOC play, i.e. if MU wants to avoid RPI drops after wins during OOC, it simply can schedule fewer cupcakes... you can't say, "I don't want to play DePaul at home this year" to help your RPI when it comes to the BE season.

I would like to see some of the cupcakes portion of the non conference  changed to games I local interest such as Loyola , UWM, UW Green Bay etc

[brewcity77]

No doubt annoying.  Our non-con SOS is pretty solid.  After the Big East season, there is almost no scenario where we will not finish top 25 in overall SOS.  Now we just have to win games.  Preferably away games for RPI purposes.

Actually home games are preferable. You are expected to lose away so it doesn't hurt as much as losing games you are expected to win at home. I just ran four scenarios through the RPI Wizard. In the first, we had home wins over St John's, Georgetown, and Xavier with road losses to the same three. When I changed those results (home loss and away win) for any of the three it dropped our RPI from 35 to 37.

Worse, I ran a scenario where we beat all three away but lost to all three at home and our RPI fell to 40. It is more important to protect home court than it is to win on the road.

[brewcity77]

I would like to see some of the cupcakes portion of the non conference  changed to games I local interest such as Loyola , UWM, UW Green Bay etc

Disagree completely. Those games provide no benefit with a bigger cost. If you win, no one cares because you were supposed to (just like UND or NJIT). If you lose, no one ever wants to let you forget. Can you imagine the crap we'd still be hearing of UWM had beat us at the Cell? Everyone will forget about Omaha by the end of the year.

There is nothing to be gained by beating local cupcakes other than looking like a bully. Especially as many will demand a home game (see Green Bay) that gives us an unnecessary risk.

[MarquetteDano]

Actually home games are preferable. You are expected to lose away so it doesn't hurt as much as losing games you are expected to win at home. I just ran four scenarios through the RPI Wizard. In the first, we had home wins over St John's, Georgetown, and Xavier with road losses to the same three. When I changed those results (home loss and away win) for any of the three it dropped our RPI from 35 to 37.

Worse, I ran a scenario where we beat all three away but lost to all three at home and our RPI fell to 40. It is more important to protect home court than it is to win on the road.

Interesting. Good to know.

[The Equalizer]

Actually home games are preferable. You are expected to lose away so it doesn't hurt as much as losing games you are expected to win at home. I just ran four scenarios through the RPI Wizard. In the first, we had home wins over St John's, Georgetown, and Xavier with road losses to the same three. When I changed those results (home loss and away win) for any of the three it dropped our RPI from 35 to 37.

Worse, I ran a scenario where we beat all three away but lost to all three at home and our RPI fell to 40. It is more important to protect home court than it is to win on the road.

Using RPI wizard, I'm not seeing our RPI anywhere near a 35 to 40 range. 

Without adjusting any wins or losses, using their baseline percentages, they suggest we'll finish with an RPI of 105.

Adjusting only the Georgetown, Xavier and St. Johns games:
If you force the 3 home games as wins, we improve to an RPI of 77
If you force the 3 road games as wins, we improve to an RPI of 66

That suggests the opposite conclusion--using the RPI forecast tool, it is better to win the road games than those at home.

Which makes perfect sense, if you think about it.

Lets single out Georgetown: We have a 47% chance of beating Georgetown at home, and a 21% chance of beating them on the road.

If you force the home game to a win, our RPI forecast is based on us having a 21% chance of picking up the road win.
If you force the road game to a win, our RPI forecast is based on us having a 47% chance of picking up the home win.

Therefore, picking up the road win is more important.