Malaysian Flt #17

[Benny B]

ATC has lost contact with Malaysian Flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur somewhere over NW Ukraine according to Flight Aware.  Had just finished climbing from 31,000 to 33,000 ft.

Ukraine's interior minister has taken to Facebook to claim it was shot down by a Buk launcher, similar to one the AP reporters saw in Eastern Ukraine earlier in the week.

I know it's early and nothing is confirmed, but is anyone else getting the feeling that this Ukraine/Russia sh#t is about to escalate drastically?


EDIT: Already, we have conflicting reports.... the interior minister is claiming it was shot down in the east part of the country where Flight Aware shows last contact clearly being in the northwest near the Poland and Belarus borders.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140717/1000Z/EHAM/WMKK

[GGGG]

Well we will see what happens, but this entire Russia / Ukraine episode has really been nothing but a silly, regional conflict....

...but if you start shooting down airliners by accident.

[Aughnanure]

Well we will see what happens, but this entire Russia / Ukraine episode has really been nothing but a silly, regional conflict....

...but if you start shooting down airliners by accident.

Lusitania, anyone?

But seriously, this more resembles the Korean Airlines flight that went down in the 1980s.

[keefe]

Lusitania, anyone?

But seriously, this more resembles the Korean Airlines flight that went down in the 1980s.

We should have taken out Petropavlovsk for that one or, at the very least, unleashed the ROKs!

[keefe]

Not a good year for MAS. I never cared for them, anyhow. SQ and TG are far superior carriers. But to lose two aircraft in the span of months to irregular action defies probability.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Why do they even fly near a conflict?

[keefe]

Why do they even fly near a conflict?

If there isn't a NOTAM then the airspace is considered safe.

[mu03eng]

If a shoot down, the whole lets put DIRCM pods on commercial airframe debate is gonna come up again.  Get ready for airline tickets to go up

[GGGG]

Now they are saying that the FAA had prohibited American carriers from that airspace...but that the international aviation organization had not.

[mu03eng]

Also, guess CNN will have material to fill the airwaves for another 50 days...good times

[Coleman]

Not a good year for MAS. I never cared for them, anyhow. SQ and TG are far superior carriers. But to lose two aircraft in the span of months to irregular action defies probability.

They will probably have a record year: http://fortune.com/2014/05/01/the-big-money-surprise-about-malaysia-airlines-flight-370/

[keefe]

If a shoot down, the whole lets put DIRCM pods on commercial airframe debate is gonna come up again.  Get ready for airline tickets to go up

Just slap ALQ 99 pods on each wing and load up the standard suite of DECM gear and the heavies are ready to rock n roll with the best of them

[mu03eng]

Just slap ALQ 99 pods on each wing and load up the standard suite of DECM gear and the heavies are ready to rock n roll with the best of them

The EWOs in my dad's squardron had to integrate Radio Shack fuzz busters into their ECM suites to detect missile sites in a certain desert in 1980....we could just do that again and we're good to go.

In all seriousness if a shoot down from 32,000 feet we know it's not a MPADS so its serious AAA, which means its either Ukraine or Russia/Russian backed separatist.  Either way, I believe the fecal matter is about to hit the electromechanically powered air movement device.

[keefe]

The EWOs in my dad's squardron had to integrate Radio Shack fuzz busters into their ECM suites to detect missile sites in a certain desert in 1980....we could just do that again and we're good to go.

In all seriousness if a shoot down from 32,000 feet we know it's not a MPADS so its serious AAA, which means its either Ukraine or Russia/Russian backed separatist.  Either way, I believe the fecal matter is about to hit the electromechanically powered air movement device.

That bird was at Angels 30+ so it couldn't have been a MANPAD - it smells more like a double digit SAM which is a very serious matter.

As for RHAW/DECM, when I was first flying Vipers and CJs we actually velcroed Fuzz Busters in the flight station since we had no coverage for J-K band threat systems. I felt like I was in Smokey and the Bandit.

[Benny B]

If a shoot down, the whole lets put DIRCM pods on commercial airframe debate is gonna come up again.  Get ready for airline tickets to go up

Cue the "rebels are buying stock in Northrup Grumman to finance their operations, man" whining from the hippie communes.

They will probably have a record year: http://fortune.com/2014/05/01/the-big-money-surprise-about-malaysia-airlines-flight-370/

Cue the "rebels are buying stock in Malaysian Airlines to finance their operations, man" whining from the hippie communes.

In all seriousness if a shoot down from 32,000 feet we know it's not a MPADS so its serious AAA, which means its either Ukraine or Russia/Russian backed separatist.  Either way, I believe the fecal matter is about to hit the electromechanically powered air movement device.

Definitely not MPADS, though I believe the reports of a SAM are yet to be confirmed.  If indeed that turns out to be the case, then we're definitely not dealing with the Durkadurkastanians.  I hate to say it, but this is probably the rarest of life events where the world is hoping this turns out to be an act of terrorism given the context and details known so far.

[Benny B]

Keefe/MUEng -- Theoretically, what would you think the crash radius of a loaded 777 at 33 following a disabling, but not necessarily direct, hit would be?  

IOW, assuming the strike was sufficient to take out comms, but mechanicals were still partially operable, how far could a dead-stick 777 fly with critical damage?  5 miles?  20 miles?  100 miles?

[mu03eng]

Keefe/MUEng -- Theoretically, what would you think the crash radius of a loaded 777 at 33 following a disabling, but not necessarily direct, hit would be?  

IOW, assuming the strike was sufficient to take out comms, but mechanicals were still partially operable, how far could a dead-stick 777 fly with critical damage?  5 miles?  20 miles?  100 miles?

If operable, it's simple projectile physics...height and velocity relative to the weight(mass * gravity).  Could be a couple of miles

Totally irrelevant, if it was a SA-11 that took it out, that plane was never operable after the warhead cooked off.  There is just no way an airliner survives something like that to dead stick

[mu03eng]

US is confirming it's a shoot down, they have data on a target acquisition radar and heat signature for a missile-aircraft merge.

In other news, Israel has boots on the ground in Gaza

Hold on to your butts, things are about to get rocky.

[keefe]

Keefe/MUEng -- Theoretically, what would you think the crash radius of a loaded 777 at 33 following a disabling, but not necessarily direct, hit would be?  

IOW, assuming the strike was sufficient to take out comms, but mechanicals were still partially operable, how far could a dead-stick 777 fly with critical damage?  5 miles?  20 miles?  100 miles?

Well at least 6 miles since that is the vertical gain for FL 34. It is impossible to say what the CEP is for that airframe without knowing point of impact. If the aircraft lost a wing or impact triggered secondaries from fuel then all you have is jetsam and people in a 6 NM death spiral. If there was no structural damage to lift surfaces and little to no impact on air flow and surface controls then the stick could have glided it in some form of controlled fashion for quite a distance. All he is really doing at that point is manipulating sink rate. Bottom line is that we simply do not have enough data to know what happened in this specific case.  

[radome]

News reporters indicated that they saw SA-17s in the area a couple of days ago. The State Department spokesperson would not confirm it but said that the increased sanctions were due to weapons movement from Russia. Wikipedia lists the envelope of an SA-17 as 2-31 miles, up to 82,000'. I don't know the cause but my stomach tells me SA-17.

[keefe]

News reporters indicated that they saw SA-17s in the area a couple of days ago. The State Department spokesperson would not confirm it but said that the increased sanctions were due to weapons movement from Russia. Wikipedia lists the envelope of an SA-17 as 2-31 miles, up to 82,000'. I don't know the cause but my stomach tells me SA-17.

Yea, like I mentioned this smells too much like a double digit SAM which would have caused catastrophic failure in multiple systems. Ivan needs to get his ass kicked over this. Putin is a Czar and Commissar in one ugly package.

[Coleman]

Yea, like I mentioned this smells too much like a double digit SAM which would have caused catastrophic failure in multiple systems. Ivan needs to get his ass kicked over this. Putin is a Czar and Commissar in one ugly package.

And there's this now: http://www.businessinsider.com/leak-separatists-discuss-shooting-down-civilian-aircraft-in-east-ukraine-2014-7

And also this: http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/267552701.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand

[wadesworld]

Whatever happened to the last Malaysian Airways flight that went missing?

[keefe]

Whatever happened to the last Malaysian Airways flight that went missing?

It crashed in the Ukraine.

[radome]

If there isn't a NOTAM then the airspace is considered safe.

I understand that there is a NOTAM (didn't look it up though). NOTAM = Notice to Aiman in my day, I think it is referred to as a Notice to Aviators now, although I'm not sure how that is a NOTAM for those that are curious or care.