Malaysian Flt #17

[Benny B]

ATC has lost contact with Malaysian Flight 17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur somewhere over NW Ukraine according to Flight Aware.  Had just finished climbing from 31,000 to 33,000 ft.

Ukraine's interior minister has taken to Facebook to claim it was shot down by a Buk launcher, similar to one the AP reporters saw in Eastern Ukraine earlier in the week.

I know it's early and nothing is confirmed, but is anyone else getting the feeling that this Ukraine/Russia sh#t is about to escalate drastically?


EDIT: Already, we have conflicting reports.... the interior minister is claiming it was shot down in the east part of the country where Flight Aware shows last contact clearly being in the northwest near the Poland and Belarus borders.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140717/1000Z/EHAM/WMKK

[GGGG]

Well we will see what happens, but this entire Russia / Ukraine episode has really been nothing but a silly, regional conflict....

...but if you start shooting down airliners by accident.

[Aughnanure]

Well we will see what happens, but this entire Russia / Ukraine episode has really been nothing but a silly, regional conflict....

...but if you start shooting down airliners by accident.

Lusitania, anyone?

But seriously, this more resembles the Korean Airlines flight that went down in the 1980s.

[keefe]

Lusitania, anyone?

But seriously, this more resembles the Korean Airlines flight that went down in the 1980s.

We should have taken out Petropavlovsk for that one or, at the very least, unleashed the ROKs!

[keefe]

Not a good year for MAS. I never cared for them, anyhow. SQ and TG are far superior carriers. But to lose two aircraft in the span of months to irregular action defies probability.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Why do they even fly near a conflict?

[keefe]

Why do they even fly near a conflict?

If there isn't a NOTAM then the airspace is considered safe.

[mu03eng]

If a shoot down, the whole lets put DIRCM pods on commercial airframe debate is gonna come up again.  Get ready for airline tickets to go up

[GGGG]

Now they are saying that the FAA had prohibited American carriers from that airspace...but that the international aviation organization had not.

[mu03eng]

Also, guess CNN will have material to fill the airwaves for another 50 days...good times

[Coleman]

Not a good year for MAS. I never cared for them, anyhow. SQ and TG are far superior carriers. But to lose two aircraft in the span of months to irregular action defies probability.

They will probably have a record year: http://fortune.com/2014/05/01/the-big-money-surprise-about-malaysia-airlines-flight-370/

[keefe]

If a shoot down, the whole lets put DIRCM pods on commercial airframe debate is gonna come up again.  Get ready for airline tickets to go up

Just slap ALQ 99 pods on each wing and load up the standard suite of DECM gear and the heavies are ready to rock n roll with the best of them

[mu03eng]

Just slap ALQ 99 pods on each wing and load up the standard suite of DECM gear and the heavies are ready to rock n roll with the best of them

The EWOs in my dad's squardron had to integrate Radio Shack fuzz busters into their ECM suites to detect missile sites in a certain desert in 1980....we could just do that again and we're good to go.

In all seriousness if a shoot down from 32,000 feet we know it's not a MPADS so its serious AAA, which means its either Ukraine or Russia/Russian backed separatist.  Either way, I believe the fecal matter is about to hit the electromechanically powered air movement device.

[keefe]

The EWOs in my dad's squardron had to integrate Radio Shack fuzz busters into their ECM suites to detect missile sites in a certain desert in 1980....we could just do that again and we're good to go.

In all seriousness if a shoot down from 32,000 feet we know it's not a MPADS so its serious AAA, which means its either Ukraine or Russia/Russian backed separatist.  Either way, I believe the fecal matter is about to hit the electromechanically powered air movement device.

That bird was at Angels 30+ so it couldn't have been a MANPAD - it smells more like a double digit SAM which is a very serious matter.

As for RHAW/DECM, when I was first flying Vipers and CJs we actually velcroed Fuzz Busters in the flight station since we had no coverage for J-K band threat systems. I felt like I was in Smokey and the Bandit.

[Benny B]

If a shoot down, the whole lets put DIRCM pods on commercial airframe debate is gonna come up again.  Get ready for airline tickets to go up

Cue the "rebels are buying stock in Northrup Grumman to finance their operations, man" whining from the hippie communes.

They will probably have a record year: http://fortune.com/2014/05/01/the-big-money-surprise-about-malaysia-airlines-flight-370/

Cue the "rebels are buying stock in Malaysian Airlines to finance their operations, man" whining from the hippie communes.

In all seriousness if a shoot down from 32,000 feet we know it's not a MPADS so its serious AAA, which means its either Ukraine or Russia/Russian backed separatist.  Either way, I believe the fecal matter is about to hit the electromechanically powered air movement device.

Definitely not MPADS, though I believe the reports of a SAM are yet to be confirmed.  If indeed that turns out to be the case, then we're definitely not dealing with the Durkadurkastanians.  I hate to say it, but this is probably the rarest of life events where the world is hoping this turns out to be an act of terrorism given the context and details known so far.

[Benny B]

Keefe/MUEng -- Theoretically, what would you think the crash radius of a loaded 777 at 33 following a disabling, but not necessarily direct, hit would be?  

IOW, assuming the strike was sufficient to take out comms, but mechanicals were still partially operable, how far could a dead-stick 777 fly with critical damage?  5 miles?  20 miles?  100 miles?

[mu03eng]

Keefe/MUEng -- Theoretically, what would you think the crash radius of a loaded 777 at 33 following a disabling, but not necessarily direct, hit would be?  

IOW, assuming the strike was sufficient to take out comms, but mechanicals were still partially operable, how far could a dead-stick 777 fly with critical damage?  5 miles?  20 miles?  100 miles?

If operable, it's simple projectile physics...height and velocity relative to the weight(mass * gravity).  Could be a couple of miles

Totally irrelevant, if it was a SA-11 that took it out, that plane was never operable after the warhead cooked off.  There is just no way an airliner survives something like that to dead stick

[mu03eng]

US is confirming it's a shoot down, they have data on a target acquisition radar and heat signature for a missile-aircraft merge.

In other news, Israel has boots on the ground in Gaza

Hold on to your butts, things are about to get rocky.

[keefe]

Keefe/MUEng -- Theoretically, what would you think the crash radius of a loaded 777 at 33 following a disabling, but not necessarily direct, hit would be?  

IOW, assuming the strike was sufficient to take out comms, but mechanicals were still partially operable, how far could a dead-stick 777 fly with critical damage?  5 miles?  20 miles?  100 miles?

Well at least 6 miles since that is the vertical gain for FL 34. It is impossible to say what the CEP is for that airframe without knowing point of impact. If the aircraft lost a wing or impact triggered secondaries from fuel then all you have is jetsam and people in a 6 NM death spiral. If there was no structural damage to lift surfaces and little to no impact on air flow and surface controls then the stick could have glided it in some form of controlled fashion for quite a distance. All he is really doing at that point is manipulating sink rate. Bottom line is that we simply do not have enough data to know what happened in this specific case.  

[radome]

News reporters indicated that they saw SA-17s in the area a couple of days ago. The State Department spokesperson would not confirm it but said that the increased sanctions were due to weapons movement from Russia. Wikipedia lists the envelope of an SA-17 as 2-31 miles, up to 82,000'. I don't know the cause but my stomach tells me SA-17.

[keefe]

News reporters indicated that they saw SA-17s in the area a couple of days ago. The State Department spokesperson would not confirm it but said that the increased sanctions were due to weapons movement from Russia. Wikipedia lists the envelope of an SA-17 as 2-31 miles, up to 82,000'. I don't know the cause but my stomach tells me SA-17.

Yea, like I mentioned this smells too much like a double digit SAM which would have caused catastrophic failure in multiple systems. Ivan needs to get his ass kicked over this. Putin is a Czar and Commissar in one ugly package.

[Coleman]

Yea, like I mentioned this smells too much like a double digit SAM which would have caused catastrophic failure in multiple systems. Ivan needs to get his ass kicked over this. Putin is a Czar and Commissar in one ugly package.

And there's this now: http://www.businessinsider.com/leak-separatists-discuss-shooting-down-civilian-aircraft-in-east-ukraine-2014-7

And also this: http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/267552701.html?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand

[wadesworld]

Whatever happened to the last Malaysian Airways flight that went missing?

[keefe]

Whatever happened to the last Malaysian Airways flight that went missing?

It crashed in the Ukraine.

[radome]

If there isn't a NOTAM then the airspace is considered safe.

I understand that there is a NOTAM (didn't look it up though). NOTAM = Notice to Aiman in my day, I think it is referred to as a Notice to Aviators now, although I'm not sure how that is a NOTAM for those that are curious or care.

[keefe]

I understand that there is a NOTAM (didn't look it up though). NOTAM = Notice to Aiman in my day, I think it is referred to as a Notice to Aviators now, although I'm not sure how that is a NOTAM for those that are curious or care.

How dare you insult women by referring to Aviators as Airmen! I am going to report your misogynistic ass to HR and see to it that a Letter of Reprimand is placed in your Personnel jacket!


BTW, radome suggests E3A or Hawkeye hours. Am I wrong here?

[wadesworld]

It crashed in the Ukraine.

Did they find debris from it? Do they know how long it flew after they lost communication? Do they know what caused it to crash? Didn't hear anything, sorry if it's old news.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Welp, looks like I may be making the move to Colombia sooner than expected.

[radome]

BTW, radome suggests E3A or Hawkeye hours. Am I wrong here?

P3

[keefe]

P3

Parpro or ASW? My first assignment was flying Vipers out of Misawa. We shared ramp space with both EP3's and P3C's. Damn things clogged up the pattern everyday but they were good guys to drink with.

[GGGG]

Yea, like I mentioned this smells too much like a double digit SAM which would have caused catastrophic failure in multiple systems. Ivan needs to get his ass kicked over this. Putin is a Czar and Commissar in one ugly package.

You and I both know that the only ass kicking will be economic and sanction-related.  There is absolutely no way that the west is going to get militarily involved over there.

[keefe]

You and I both know that the only ass kicking will be economic and sanction-related.  There is absolutely no way that the west is going to get militarily involved over there.

The EU's measured response assures it. People need to realize though that Putin is not a nice man and what is going on in Mother Russia is not encouraging.

[brandx]

You and I both know that the only ass kicking will be economic and sanction-related.  There is absolutely no way that the west is going to get militarily involved over there.

Agreed.

But are you suggesting that more be done? And if so, what?

[keefe]

Agreed.

But are you suggesting that more be done? And if so, what?

I was not actually suggesting a military response against Russia. From a practical standpoint, the EU would never go along with military action and the US would never go it alone so case closed. We need to learn more about this event but it is murder on a mass scale. 

[GGGG]

Agreed.

But are you suggesting that more be done? And if so, what?

Oh no.  It really is outside our sphere of influence and interest.  Economic sanctions are fine.

[GGGG]

nm

[brandx]

Oh no.  It really is outside our sphere of influence and interest.  Economic sanctions are fine.

Thanks to you and Keefe. You guys are pretty sensible, so I figured that would be the response.

[brandx]

I was not actually suggesting a military response against Russia. From a practical standpoint, the EU would never go along with military action and the US would never go it alone so case closed. We need to learn more about this event but it is murder on a mass scale. 

I just started a book called The Things they Carried about the Vietnam War. I know you are a big-time reader so I am wondering if you have read it. Tim O'Brien is the author.

[Tugg Speedman]

Sit down for this.  

Moscow is telling Reuters that MH-17 was mistaken for Putin's plane and this was really an assassination attempt on Putin gone wrong.


"The contours of the aircrafts are similar, linear dimensions are also very similar, as for the coloring, at a quite remote distance they are almost identical", the source added.

Putin was returning from Brazil where he attended the World Cup final and BRICs conference.  Putin's IL-96 followed some of the same route  as MH-17 a few minutes behind it.  Moscow is suggesting that the Ukrainian government confused the two planes and mistakenly started tracking MH-17.

“I can say that Putin’s plane and the Malaysian Boeing intersected at the same point and the same echelon. That was close to Warsaw on 330-m echelon at the height of 10,100 meters. The presidential jet was there at 16:21 Moscow time and the Malaysian aircraft - 15:44 Moscow time,” a source told the news agency on condition of anonymity.

Moscow is implying that the Ukrainian government, not separatist rebels, fired on the plane in an attempt to assassinate Putin.

http://rt.com/news/173672-malaysia-plane-crash-putin/

So Vlad is the victim here, not the aggressor.  We should all feel sorry for him.

[ChicosBailBonds]

What will the NCAA due to correct this?

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Walk softly and carry no stick

[ZiggysFryBoy]

What will the NCAA due to correct this?

Tajikistan got put on probation today.

[77ncaachamps]

Tajikistan got put on probation today.

NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

UNFAIR!

[Benny B]

Sit down for this.  

Moscow is telling Reuters that MH-17 was mistaken for Putin's plane and this was really an assassination attempt on Putin gone wrong.


"The contours of the aircrafts are similar, linear dimensions are also very similar, as for the coloring, at a quite remote distance they are almost identical", the source added.

Putin was returning from Brazil where he attended the World Cup final and BRICs conference.  Putin's IL-96 followed some of the same route  as MH-17 a few minutes behind it.  Moscow is suggesting that the Ukrainian government confused the two planes and mistakenly started tracking MH-17.

“I can say that Putin’s plane and the Malaysian Boeing intersected at the same point and the same echelon. That was close to Warsaw on 330-m echelon at the height of 10,100 meters. The presidential jet was there at 16:21 Moscow time and the Malaysian aircraft - 15:44 Moscow time,” a source told the news agency on condition of anonymity.

Moscow is implying that the Ukrainian government, not separatist rebels, fired on the plane in an attempt to assassinate Putin.

http://rt.com/news/173672-malaysia-plane-crash-putin/

So Vlad is the victim here, not the aggressor.  We should all feel sorry for him.

If this was indeed a gov't-sponsored assassination attempt on the Russian head-of-state, it would not have failed. 

[Hards Alumni]

Sit down for this.  

Moscow is telling Reuters that MH-17 was mistaken for Putin's plane and this was really an assassination attempt on Putin gone wrong.


"The contours of the aircrafts are similar, linear dimensions are also very similar, as for the coloring, at a quite remote distance they are almost identical", the source added.

Putin was returning from Brazil where he attended the World Cup final and BRICs conference.  Putin's IL-96 followed some of the same route  as MH-17 a few minutes behind it.  Moscow is suggesting that the Ukrainian government confused the two planes and mistakenly started tracking MH-17.

“I can say that Putin’s plane and the Malaysian Boeing intersected at the same point and the same echelon. That was close to Warsaw on 330-m echelon at the height of 10,100 meters. The presidential jet was there at 16:21 Moscow time and the Malaysian aircraft - 15:44 Moscow time,” a source told the news agency on condition of anonymity.

Moscow is implying that the Ukrainian government, not separatist rebels, fired on the plane in an attempt to assassinate Putin.

http://rt.com/news/173672-malaysia-plane-crash-putin/

So Vlad is the victim here, not the aggressor.  We should all feel sorry for him.

Boy that sure is convenient for Russia!  Gives them a 'justifiable' war.

What a crock.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If this was indeed a gov't-sponsored assassination attempt on the Russian head-of-state, it would not have failed. 

Why do you say that?

[Tugg Speedman]

RT (Russia Today) is the Russian Government News Service.  It is the organization that put out this Putin assassination propaganda.

Earlier today Sara Firth, their London Correspondent, resigned over the Russian coverage of MH-17

-----------------------------

Russia Today Correspondent Resigns Over Coverage Of Ukrainian Plane Crash

Sara Firth has been with the Kremlin-backed station since 2009 but quit over the way it handled Thursday’s Malaysia Airlines disaster.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/russia-today-correspondent-resigns-over-coverage-of-ukranian?bftw=main

Sara Firth, a longstanding London-based correspondent for Russia Today, resigned on Friday in protest at the channel’s coverage of the Malaysia Airlines crash.



Firth, who joined the channel in 2009, told BuzzFeed that she decided to resign from the Kremlin-funded news channel because she felt it was “disrespectfully” attempting to pin the blame for Thursday’s Malaysia Airlines disaster on the Ukrainian government.

“When this story broke I ran back into the newsroom and saw how we were covering it already and I just knew I had to go,” she said.

“It was the total disregard to the facts. We threw up eyewitness accounts from someone on the ground openly accusing the Ukrainian government [of involvement in the disaster], and a correspondent in the studio pulled up a plane crash before that the Ukrainian government had been involved in and said it was ‘worth mentioning’.

“It’s not worth mentioning. It’s Russia Today all over, it’s flirting with that border of overtly lying. You’re not telling a lie, you’re just bringing something up. I didn’t want to watch a story like that, where people have lost loved ones and we’re handling it like that.

“I couldn’t do it any more. Every single day we’re lying and finding sexier ways to do it.”



Russia Today has been hit by high-profile staff resignations before, most spectacularly when anchor Liz Wahl resigned live on air earlier this year.

Firth, a Briton who graduated from City University in 2009, worked out of the news channel’s Moscow base initially, before coming to work in London. She claims that inexperienced staff would be assigned to important stories in order to ensure they did not go off-message.

“The way it works with a story like this is that the people who are assigned are very obedient. The second you start to question or report honestly then you’re a problem.

“The first thing that happens is that they assign the usually least experienced in RT, the second is everyone else who’s involved [starts] phoning guests that have a particular viewpoint and are going to say a particular thing.”



While many journalists are attracted to Russia Today by healthy salaries and the prospect of a secure job, Firth said there was a belief there that you could stay “within the system and fight against the bad forces”.

She insists she never lied in any of her reports but became concerned about the airtime given to her journalism and was concerned that her reports were “lending credibility” to the channel’s other output. She alleges she was pulled out of Syria by channel bosses the day after filing a report highlighting the suffering of civilians in areas opposed to the Assad regime, which is backed by Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.

Firth said she had immense respect for her “talented” colleagues and said the vast majority of journalists at the channel were working hard to tell the truth, but that the management “ignore that and push the rubbish”.

“It’s great team, so talented. But at the heart of that organisation it’s rotten. Until they have people operating at the top level who want to tell the truth and tell the facts then it’s not going to change.”

“There is a perception of RT as an evil genius but it’s actually just dangerous incompetence.”

Russia Today has been contacted for comment.

[brandx]

If this was indeed a gov't-sponsored assassination attempt on the Russian head-of-state, it would not have failed. 

It wasn't

[4everwarriors]

What will the NCAA due to correct this?

Reduce the number of schollies, aina?

[Hards Alumni]

It wasn't

Agreed.  Ukraine would have to be immeasurably foolish to think that assassination would work in their favor politically.  Even an attempt would cause their allies to abandon them, and give Russia a reason to declare war and annex Ukraine fully.  Which is why I called that story a crock.  No nation is that foolish.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Agreed.  Ukraine would have to be immeasurably foolish to think that assassination would work in their favor politically.  Even an attempt would cause their allies to abandon them, and give Russia a reason to declare war and annex Ukraine fully.  Which is why I called that story a crock.  No nation except N. Korea is that foolish.

Fixed

[Galway Eagle]

Don't know of this has been mentioned but 100 of those passengers were amongst the top AIDS/HIV researchers in the world.  Research took a huge step back because of this. 

[brandx]

Agreed.  Ukraine would have to be immeasurably foolish to think that assassination would work in their favor politically.  Even an attempt would cause their allies to abandon them, and give Russia a reason to declare war and annex Ukraine fully.  Which is why I called that story a crock.  No nation is that foolish.

Only those who believe Russian election results will believe this was an attempt at Putin.

[martyconlonontherun]

Don't know of this has been mentioned but 100 of those passengers were amongst the top AIDS/HIV researchers in the world.  Research took a huge step back because of this. 

I'll be that douche. The passengers included researchers, health workers, and activists so they weren't all top researchers. Huge human loss and I apologize for that slight exaggeration bothering me for some reason.

[Lennys Tap]

I just started a book called The Things they Carried about the Vietnam War. I know you are a big-time reader so I am wondering if you have read it. Tim O'Brien is the author.

The Things They Carried is a positively brilliant collection of short stories revolving around Tim O'Brien's time in Vietnam. Also read Searching for Cacciato (another Vietnam book), In The Lake of The Woods and July, July by O'Brien. Great stuff.

[brandx]

The Things They Carried is a positively brilliant collection of short stories revolving around Tim O'Brien's time in Vietnam. Also read Searching for Cacciato (another Vietnam book), In The Lake of The Woods and July, July by O'Brien. Great stuff.

Thanks for the suggestions Lenny.

[keefe]

I just started a book called The Things they Carried about the Vietnam War. I know you are a big-time reader so I am wondering if you have read it. Tim O'Brien is the author.

x

That is an excellent read which you should enjoy along many dimensions. Vietnam is a particular interest - I posted a bibliography in an earlier thread. I'll paste it in here for reference:


You realize of course that the Truman Doctrine was based on Kennan's Foreign Affairs article, The Sources of Soviet Conduct. Kennan argued that the Soviet Union was inherently expansionist, not for ideological reasons, but for the simple fact of Tsarist Realpolitik tradition. His thesis was that Moscow needed to be contained in geographies of strategic importance to the West. Vietnam certainly lay beyond that sphere and Kennan argued vehemently against US involvement in a French post-colonial transition issue (remember, of course, that French colonial control and security was reimposed and enforced by the Japanese Imperial Army whose troops continued to garrison Indochina on behalf of the French until 1950.)

So was the failure of the Truman Doctrine in Indochina the responsibility of the military, as you suggest? I think before you answer this you need to read from a balanced bibliography to include:

"The Sources of Soviet Conduct," Foreign Affairs, George F. Kennan

Vietnam: A History, Stanley Karnow

The Quiet American, Graham Greene

A Rumor of War, Phil Caputo

A Bright Shining Lie, Neil Sheehan

Anatomy of a War, Gabriel Kolko

Fire In the Lake, Frances FitzGerald

The Best and the Brightest, David Halberstam

Triumph Forsaken, Mark Moyar

A Better War, Lewis Sorley

Dispatches, Michael Herr

Fields of Fire, Jim Webb

A Soldier Reports, William Westmoreland

In Retrospect, Robert McNamara

Class Warfare, Noam Chomsky

Fighter Pilot, Robin Olds

People's War, Vo Nguyen Giap

Ho Chi Minh, William Duiker

The Lost Valley: Dien Bien Phu and the French defeat in Vietnam, Martin Windrow

The Other Side of Heaven, Minh Kue Le & Tru Ong Vu

The Things They Carried, Tim O'Brien

I think you will find this reading provides a balanced overview of what Vietnam was and meant to all parties concerned

[Benny B]

Why do you say that?

If you want to take out the head-of-state of a major country, you not only need the motivation, but you need the capacity to do it.  A suicidal whack-job with a gun doesn't make for a would-be assassin.  Someone as guarded as Putin would require a copious amount planning, intelligence, access, etc.  And that would be just for your conventional, Jack Ruby-style "walk-up-and-fire-and-bear-the-consequences" assassination attempt.

If you're going for stealth, you need all of that plus something else: the proper equipment and training.  There are a lot of things you can learn on the interwebs these days... how to become a sniper isn't one of them  (not to mention, sniper rifles aren't typically stocked at Gander Mountain).  I think it was the Russians who last made a poisoning attempt, so they'll be on the watch for that.  An accident just isn't going to cut it, and something tells me cyberbulling Vlad on his Facebook page into suicide won't work either.

Now, if said assassination attempt was being made by shooting down a plane 33k overhead from the ground, another thing is necessary... the Mexicans call them cohones.  Whoever pulls the trigger on that knows damn well that the world is going to pull out all stops to figure out who did it before WWIII starts, and Ukraine isn't a country who's going to risk that type of retaliation; they certainly don't have the ability to frame someone else for a missile strike from their own territory.

Take away the motivation part for a moment, and there are two groups in the entire world who could pull off something like that... CIA and MI6.  And if either of them wanted Putin dead, he'd been lying in state long ago.

[Galway Eagle]

I'll be that douche. The passengers included researchers, health workers, and activists so they weren't all top researchers. Huge human loss and I apologize for that slight exaggeration bothering me for some reason.

Because a "researcher" can't be a top researcher? Read some of the articles they tell you some of the specific people.  I don't think all were top researchers but there were some of the top researchers and activists on there.  Apology somewhat accepted

[Lennys Tap]

Thanks for the suggestions Lenny.

You're more than welcome. I'll be interested in your thoughts when you're finished.

[brandx]

x

That is an excellent read which you should enjoy along many dimensions. Vietnam is a particular interest - I posted a bibliography in an earlier thread. I'll paste it in here for reference:

(cut for brevity)

Thanks, K

I see several in the list I have either read or will read.

[GooooMarquette]

If you want to take out the head-of-state of a major country, you not only need the motivation, but you need the capacity to do it.  A suicidal whack-job with a gun doesn't make for a would-be assassin.  Someone as guarded as Putin would require a copious amount planning, intelligence, access, etc.  And that would be just for your conventional, Jack Ruby-style "walk-up-and-fire-and-bear-the-consequences" assassination attempt.

If you're going for stealth, you need all of that plus something else: the proper equipment and training.  There are a lot of things you can learn on the interwebs these days... how to become a sniper isn't one of them  (not to mention, sniper rifles aren't typically stocked at Gander Mountain).  I think it was the Russians who last made a poisoning attempt, so they'll be on the watch for that.  An accident just isn't going to cut it, and something tells me cyberbulling Vlad on his Facebook page into suicide won't work either.

Now, if said assassination attempt was being made by shooting down a plane 33k overhead from the ground, another thing is necessary... the Mexicans call them cohones.  Whoever pulls the trigger on that knows damn well that the world is going to pull out all stops to figure out who did it before WWIII starts, and Ukraine isn't a country who's going to risk that type of retaliation; they certainly don't have the ability to frame someone else for a missile strike from their own territory.

Take away the motivation part for a moment, and there are two groups in the entire world who could pull off something like that... CIA and MI6.  And if either of them wanted Putin dead, he'd been lying in state long ago.

Agreed.  And the likelihood that Ukraine had the intel to know Putin's flight path back from Rio is about as close to zero as you can get.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Agreed.  Ukraine would have to be immeasurably foolish to think that assassination would work in their favor politically.  Even an attempt would cause their allies to abandon them, and give Russia a reason to declare war and annex Ukraine fully.  Which is why I called that story a crock.  No nation is that foolish.

Iraq tried to assasinate Bush I

[keefe]

Thanks, K

I see several in the list I have either read or will read.

Tough call but if I had to pick just one from my list it would be Fire in the lake by Frances FitzGerald. Superb read.

[77ncaachamps]

Russia Today
China News

All are available via antenna in the US. It's no wonder they're trying to spin news in our country.

For that broadcaster to leave, I applaud her. She sees now - despite collecting a check for some time - that her network is state-based propaganda.

I'm surprised, though, the Al-Jazeera network isn't that widely available via antenna.

[keefe]

Russia Today
China News

All are available via antenna in the US. It's no wonder they're trying to spin news in our country.

For that broadcaster to leave, I applaud her. She sees now - despite collecting a check for some time - that her network is state-based propaganda.

I'm surprised, though, the Al-Jazeera network isn't that widely available via antenna.

RT is rubbish. It's DNA is pure Tass/Pravda but with polish. Anyone who wastes a second watching its content is squandering mortal sand.

[GGGG]

So why ultimately will nothing substantial happen to Russia even after the airline was shot down?

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/07/russia_s_corrupt_control_of_europe_how_vladimir_putin_keeps_the_continent.html

Pretty sobering explanation. 

[keefe]

So why ultimately will nothing substantial happen to Russia even after the airline was shot down?

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/07/russia_s_corrupt_control_of_europe_how_vladimir_putin_keeps_the_continent.html

Pretty sobering explanation. 

Russia learned early in the post-Yeltsin era that political linkages in business and business linkages in politics are the contemporary equivalent of Stalin's, "How many divisions has the Pope?"

But the reality is that Novorossiya is much more fragile than we might believe. And therein lies the danger.


http://www.newrepublic.com/article/118827/russias-natural-gas-and-oil-exports-are-68-percent-total-exports

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/382929/stillborn-new-russia-alex-alexiev

[GGGG]

Thank you keefe.  Those were interesting.

[keefe]

Thank you keefe.  Those were interesting.

An interesting take on fallout and end game from Politico


http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/07/the-end-of-vladimir-putin-109604.html#.U90UMe90yM8

[Benny B]

An interesting take on fallout and end game from Politico


http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/07/the-end-of-vladimir-putin-109604.html#.U90UMe90yM8

The Russian mindset on this issue is very curious indeed.  Much in the same way you had many German generals and businessmen during WWII who despised Hitler (and hoped for his downfall even as they continued to do his bidding), you have the same situation in Russia today.... maybe Putin's not so ill-intentioned by the military, but in today's global economy, Russian oligarchs have just as much influence in that country as the generals.