The Bubble

[MarsupialMadness]

Guys lets me realistic here. We can lose one more regular season game the rest of the way and lose one in the big east tournament excluding the opening round. They are not going to take a team with 13 losses especially in this new big east and especially with only 1 quality with. The year we got the 11 seed i believe we had 12 losses but that was in a stacked big east. The only game we can afford to lose is villanova anything else and i think we are done.

vs. Xavier - W
vs. Creighton - W
@ DePaul - W
vs. Georgetown - W
@ Villanova - L
@ Providence - L
vs. SJU - W

BET - W, L

I think this finish allows us a good chance at getting in, with two more regular season losses. (meaning all we have to do is take care of business at home, beat DePaul at the Allstate, and win one, maybe two, in the BET).

[Mu2323]

These hard and fast rules don't always fit.  There are 68 teams now, not 64.  There have been 14 loss teams that had at-large bids.  It depends on who we lose to and beat if we go 11-7.  We need to get to the BET championship game though if we only go 11-7 however.

I would tend to agree with you but without any quality wins they are not going to give the nod to us. For comparison clemson is another bubble team. They beat duke that alone would give them the nod. A 14 loss team would have to have some impressive wins i would imagine. I get your point but i dont think this team has the quality wins to fall into that category.

[ChicosBailBonds]

As for x making it. Have you looked at their schedule. I can see 6 potential losses. At MU at Gtown At Seton Hall At SJU vs creighton vs villanova even if they split thats 3 losses. They are not a lock.

They are only supposed to win 2 of the 6 from an RPI perspective, if they do that...finish with a RPI of 40. Not a lock, but in very good shape.  Incidentally, Marquette is projected to beat Xavier in the RPI this weekend.

[wardle2wade]

Guys lets me realistic here. We can lose one more regular season game the rest of the way and lose one in the big east tournament excluding the opening round. They are not going to take a team with 13 losses especially in this new big east and especially with only 1 quality with. The year we got the 11 seed i believe we had 12 losses but that was in a stacked big east. The only game we can afford to lose is villanova anything else and i think we are done.

Realistic or now, your logic is poor.  Mu would have at least 2 quality top50 wins, and most likely in the 5-6 quality win range.

Let's look at that hypothetical of 2 more reg season losses (11-7)...
1) MU has games against X, creighton, and @nova... it'd mean MU wins at least 1 of them.
2) It also means MU would beat Gtown, @Prov, and St johns.  Gtown, Prov, and St Johns are all near top-50, and I'd bet two of them will finish there. 
3) MU already has GW, @gtown, and Prov under their belts.

I know the narrative of the old infallible Big East isnt there, but the new Big East still has very strong conference numbers.  Most other conferences have at least 4-5 Depaul-like teams to beat up on... Big East teams dont have that luxury to pad their win total.

[NavinRJohnson]

I would tend to agree with you but without any quality wins they are not going to give the nod to us. For comparison clemson is another bubble team. They beat duke that alone would give them the nod. A 14 loss team would have to have some impressive wins i would imagine. I get your point but i dont think this team has the quality wins to fall into that category.

Simply not true. It'll help, but in the end its the total résumé that matters. With 1/3 of the conference schedule and conference tournaments left to play, declarations like that simply aren't valid.

[Golden Avalanche]

Xavier won by double digits, unfortunately.

A team fighting to get into third place in the Big East and likely a bid to NCAA Tournament putting in a strong performance to win on the road against the worst team in the league. Must be nice not to shoot your own foot.

[Mu2323]

Wow completely shocked looking back to 2010-11 we had 14 losses and got a 11 seed.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated results though last night. *Records vs D-1 oppenents only*  This is still based off Lunardi's Feb 10 bracketology - I will update again when he issues a new one.  

Last Four Byes

Colorado (18-6; RPI:24)
Minnesota (15-8; RPI:39)
Tennessee (14-9; RPI:49)
Florida State (14-10; RPI:63)

Last Four In

Providence (16-9; RPI:52)
LSU (15-7; RPI:59)
BYU (15-9; RPI:46)
Missouri (16-7; RPI:47)

First Four Out

Georgetown (15-9; RPI:53)
Saint Joe's (16-7; RPI:45)
Clemson (15-8; RPI:68)
Ole Miss (16-8; RPI:61)

Next Four Out

Louisana Tech (19-5; RPI:72)
West Virginia (15-10; RPI:64)
St. John's (15-9; RPI:62)
Oregon (15-8; RPI:41)

Others Considered

Baylor (12-9; RPI:58)
Indiana (14-9; RPI:74)
Marquette (14-10; RPI:70)
Richmond (15-8; RPI:44)
Dayton (16-8; RPI:57)
Arkansas (15-8; RPI:73)
Maryland (14-11; RPI:75)
St Mary's (17-7; RPI:56)


Tonights bubble action:

Baylor @ TCU

Penn State @ Indiana

Rhode Island @ Dayton

Cal @ Washington State

Stanford @ Washington

LSU @ TA&M

[ChicosBailBonds]

Wow completely shocked looking back to 2010-11 we had 14 losses and got a 11 seed.

Some will say we were last four in, others will say last 6 in. 

[MarquetteDano]

Realistic or now, your logic is poor.  Mu would have at least 2 quality top50 wins, and most likely in the 5-6 quality win range.

Let's look at that hypothetical of 2 more reg season losses (11-7)...
1) MU has games against X, creighton, and @nova... it'd mean MU wins at least 1 of them.
2) It also means MU would beat Gtown, @Prov, and St johns.  Gtown, Prov, and St Johns are all near top-50, and I'd bet two of them will finish there. 
3) MU already has GW, @gtown, and Prov under their belts.

I would add if we get to the BET Championship game it would be nearly guaranteed we would have beaten either Nova, Creighton, or X on a neutral court.

[wardle2wade]

Also want to add...
Richmond at Duquesne
New Mexico at Boise State

Both Richmond and Boise were bubble teams a week ago.  Wouldn't mind them dropping their games to take them completely off the radar.

[copious1218]

I'm viewing the remainder of the season as having to win 7 games.  Go 7-0 in the Regular Season and we can lose in the first round of BET and still be safe (I think).  Go 6-1 have to win 1 game.  5-2, have to make the championship game.  4-3 or worse - must win BET. 

So, for me, 7 more wins means we're in, however we get them.

[Coleman]

I'm viewing the remainder of the season as having to win 7 games.  Go 7-0 in the Regular Season and we can lose in the first round of BET and still be safe (I think).  Go 6-1 have to win 1 game.  5-2, have to make the championship game.  4-3 or worse - must win BET. 

So, for me, 7 more wins means we're in, however we get them.

Well said. I'm on board with this.

[Tugg Speedman]

Looking at Lundari above ...

Four NBE teams in =  Nova, Creighton, X, Prov
Bubble = Georgetown, as they are literally first out
Still in the conversation but out as of now = MU and St. Johns
Not in the conversation = Butler, Seton Hall, DePaul

I think this sound about right.

Thoughts?

[MarsupialMadness]

Looking at Lundari above ...

Four NBE teams in =  Nova, Creighton, X, Prov
Bubble = Georgetown, as they are literally first out
Still in the conversation but out as of now = MU and St. Johns
Not in the conversation = Butler, Seton Hall, DePaul

I think this sound about right.

Thoughts?

I think Providence, having lost 4 out of their last 5, is now in a similar situation as us where they will need to finish out the reg season 4-2 to still be in the picture. 

[Lennys Tap]

Some will say we were last four in, others will say last 6 in. 

Three play in at large teams (Clemson, UAB, USC ) were definitely in after us. 12 seeds (Utah St, Richmond, Memphis) likely behind us. 11 seeds (Missouri and Gonnzaga) a toss up. You'll say the 12 seeds might have been in ahead of us. If that's true we could have been in ahead of the 10 seeds. So, we were somewhere between the 4th last to the 13th last team in.

[wardle2wade]

I'm viewing the remainder of the season as having to win 7 games.  Go 7-0 in the Regular Season and we can lose in the first round of BET and still be safe (I think).  Go 6-1 have to win 1 game.  5-2, have to make the championship game.  4-3 or worse - must win BET. 

So, for me, 7 more wins means we're in, however we get them.

6-1 is lock city considering this year's bubble... that being said, it's a tall order.  It would mean adding 5 of these 6 wins to our profile... Xavier, Creighton, Gtown, @Providence, @Nova, and St Johns.  It would put Marquette at 20-11 prior to the BET with a matchup against either Xavier, Gtown, Providence, or St Johns.  None of these teams would kill our chances if we lost in the first round of the BET unless we got smoked by 20+. 

People are overrating the resumes of the last teams who will get in the tourney.

[4everwarriors]

The only bubble action F*ckin's in for tonight is passin' gas in the bathtub.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'll be at Reed Arena tonight hopefully watching the Aggies give Marquette an assist by beating LSU

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Looking at Lundari above ...

Four NBE teams in =  Nova, Creighton, X, Prov
Bubble = Georgetown, as they are literally first out
Still in the conversation but out as of now = MU and St. Johns
Not in the conversation = Butler, Seton Hall, DePaul

I think this sound about right.

Thoughts?

I think that is a fair snap-shot of where we stand RIGHT NOW.  Although, Providence is trending down and Gtown and STJ are trending up.  Not ready to put MU in the trending up category, but a win this weekend would do wonders.  Bottom line - just win.  But as some other posters have pointed out, this is going to be a weak bubble, and the teams MU are going to be up against for the final few spots have spotty resumes.  We're not nearly as far away from an at-large bids as some of the posters here want to think.

[copious1218]

6-1 is lock city considering this year's bubble... that being said, it's a tall order.  It would mean adding 5 of these 6 wins to our profile... Xavier, Creighton, Gtown, @Providence, @Nova, and St Johns.  It would put Marquette at 20-11 prior to the BET with a matchup against either Xavier, Gtown, Providence, or St Johns.  None of these teams would kill our chances if we lost in the first round of the BET unless we got smoked by 20+. 

People are overrating the resumes of the last teams who will get in the tourney.

6-1 w/ a quarterfinal loss in the BET, and I'll personally be sweating on Selection Sunday.  You may be right, but I won't feel confident of a spot until we win that 7th game.

[willie warrior]

I think that is a fair snap-shot of where we stand RIGHT NOW.  Although, Providence is trending down and Gtown and STJ are trending up.  Not ready to put MU in the trending up category, but a win this weekend would do wonders.  Bottom line - just win.  But as some other posters have pointed out, this is going to be a weak bubble, and the teams MU are going to be up against for the final few spots have spotty resumes.  We're not nearly as far away from an at-large bids as some of the posters here want to think.

Correct--we are a bubble team.

[MarquetteDano]

Some good and bad news regarding the bubble:

Good
UMass loses again (George Mason at home!)
Stanford loses at UDub
LSU loses at TA&M (thank you TAMU Eagle!)

Bad
Richmond wins at Duqesne (16-8,6-3)
VCU knocks off George Washington easily (need GW to look like a quality win)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Some good and bad news regarding the bubble:

Good
UMass loses again (George Mason at home!)
Stanford loses at UDub
LSU loses at TA&M (thank you TAMU Eagle!)

Bad
Richmond wins at Duqesne (16-8,6-3)
VCU knocks off George Washington easily (need GW to look like a quality win)

Crazy game, best the Aggies offense looked all season. Former Marquette target Jamal Jones put on a show with 5/10 from 3. Could definitely have used that this year...

[wardle2wade]

Few other results...
IU blew a 9pt lead with 2min left at home to PSU.
Boise State tipped New Mex by 1.
Cal avoided a very bad loss by outlasting WSU in overtime.
Richmond easily handled Duquesne.