The Bubble

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

A more clear picture of "The Bubble" is starting to form.  Obviously every day changes things, but this is the latest look at Lunardi's bubble:

Last Four Byes

Colorado (18-6; RPI:25)
Minnesota (16-8; RPI:39)
Tennessee (15-8; RPI:47)
Florida State (14-9; RPI:54)

Last Four In

Providence (16-8; RPI:50)
LSU (15-7; RPI:61)
BYU (17-9; RPI:41)
Missouri (16-7; RPI:49)

First Four Out

Georgetown (14-9; RPI:57)
Saint Joe's (16-7; RPI:46)
Clemson (15-7; RPI:65)
Ole Miss (16-7; RPI:56)

Next Four Out

Louisana Tech (20-5; RPI:69)
West Virginia (14-10; RPI:72)
St. John's (15-9; RPI:62)
Oregon (15-8; RPI:42)

Others Considered

Baylor (14-9; RPI:58)
Indiana (14-9; RPI:79)
Marquette (13-10; RPI:88)
Richmond (16-7; RPI:43)
Dayton (16-8; RPI:60)
Arkansas (15-8; RPI:80)
Maryland (14-10; RPI:74)
St Mary's (18-7; RPI:53)

Rattle off three in a row vs. Seton Hall, Xavier and Creighton and things will be looking very good.  Let's get'er done boys.

[Tugg Speedman]

Rattle off three in a row vs. Seton Hall, Xavier and Creighton and things will be looking very good.  Let's get'er done boys.

+1 

We are out ... for now.  We have to start winning and we can win the next three.  Do that and everything changes.

[MUfan12]

A fun site to play with is rpiwizard.com.

Ran some projections for the last 8. RPI will be around 55 with 2 losses, as long as they aren't to DePaul or SHU. 7-1 will have them low to mid-40's, barring that loss being a bad one.

The Butler away game was a huge missed opportunity. With the road win weight, it would have given a little bit of cushion.

[jsheim]

. . .
. . .
Others Considered

Baylor (14-9; RPI:58)
Indiana (14-9; RPI:79)
Marquette (13-10; RPI:88)
Richmond (16-7; RPI:43)
Dayton (16-8; RPI:60)
Arkansas (15-8; RPI:80)
Maryland (14-10; RPI:74)
St Mary's (18-7; RPI:53)
. . .
. . .

The most interesting thing here is we made the "Others Considered" list. No way we should be on that list....Why are we there? Because MU has a rep.... 3 years in a row we overachieved and beat expectations. That rep will be good when they crunch the numbers at the end.

I used to think the minimum was 20-11 (7-1 down the stretch)...and even 0-1 in BET we would get in.......19-12 even with a 2-1 BET would knock us out.

But maybe not....maybe 19-12 would be good enough with an extra win in the BET....simply on reputation.

[Atticus]

The most interesting thing here is we made the "Others Considered" list. No way we should be on that list....Why are we there? Because MU has a rep.... 3 years in a row we overachieved and beat expectations. That rep will be good when they crunch the numbers at the end.

I used to think the minimum was 20-11 (7-1 down the stretch)...and even 0-1 in BET we would get in.......19-12 even with a 2-1 BET would knock us out.

But maybe not....maybe 19-12 would be good enough with an extra win in the BET....simply on reputation.

Reputation? Yeah...sure. I've never heard a committee member say they used "reputation" as a factor.

[brandx]

Except we are 23 games into the schedule and the only reason we even have a two game winning streak this year is because of 'cupcakes'.

[Class71]

Everyone can have an opinion. We get a quality win (Creighton or 'Nova) and do not screw up with some of the weaker teams we are in the hunt. There will be some uncertainty but what is new? The point is, it is no time to give up. We still have a shot. The glass is half full.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Everyone can have an opinion. We get a quality win (Creighton or 'Nova) and do not screw up with some of the weaker teams we are in the hunt. There will be some uncertainty but what is new? The point is, it is no time to give up. We still have a shot. The glass is half full.

Yup, pretty much the deal.  Have to win some games, most importantly have to get some attractive scalps and that means Creighton, St J, G'Town and it would be great to get Nova.  Unlikely, but that is why they play the games.

[PGsHeroes32]

St. Johns, Gtown and Prov are all currently higher up on the bubble.

Beat those 3 teams and we really have a chance to rise as well. Especially considering two of them would be sweeps.

[mileskishnish72]

Help me out with the terminology here. Which group is supposed to be better, the First 4 out or the Next 4 out? If they are really named appropriately, the Next 4 Out should be the better group, since the other group is already out (first!).  Looking at these two quartets it's hard to know which is which - the records are quite comparable, but the First  4 Out have, on average, the better RPI's. Are they really the Last 4 Out and the Next-to-last 4 Out?

[PGsHeroes32]

No, its name properly.

First 4 out are the first 4 teams just barely out of the tourney. The Next 4 are the four that follow.

[79Warrior]

Yup, pretty much the deal.  Have to win some games, most importantly have to get some attractive scalps and that means Creighton, St J, G'Town and it would be great to get Nova.  Unlikely, but that is why they play the games.

Gotta win tomorow first. A loss @ SH and we are pretty much toast barring winning the BE tourney..

[PGsHeroes32]

Gotta win tomorow first. A loss @ SH and we are pretty much toast barring winning the BE tourney..

Yup. The term is usually win and in. Tomorrow it's win and not out...yet.

[BrewCity83]

Survive and advance.

[willie warrior]

Got to be pretty disappointing that we are about two farts in the hot tub away from even being close to the bubble. Oh well, there is always next year to get excited about.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Still hoping this team finds itself and wins more than every other game.

[bradley center bat]

Look at Jerry Palm on CBS.

[4everwarriors]

Is the bubble hard or soft?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Look at Jerry Palm on CBS.

Are you endorsing Jerry Palm?

[bradley center bat]

Are you endorsing Jerry Palm?

If Jerry Palm was on ESPN, everyone would be talking about him. I do enjoy both!  He does BCS rankings as well. He is on alot The Tim Brando Show and Paul Finebaum.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If Jerry Palm was on ESPN, everyone would be talking about him. I do enjoy both!  He does BCS rankings as well. He is on alot The Tim Brando Show and Paul Finebaum.

Meh. I follow both, but Palm is definitely not as knowledgable as Joey Brackets.  I don't think Lunardi is the end-all-be-all, but Palm isn't my favorite.  

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Last night's action:

Big home win for West Virginia (15-10) over #11 ISU (18-5)

Tough home loss for Florida State (14-10) to Miami (12-12)

Georgetown (15-9) at home over Providence (16-9)

Maryland (14-11) falls on the road to #17 Virginia (20-5)


Tonight's action for Bubble Teams:

#3 Florida @ Tennessee

Clemson @ Notre Dame

Wake Forest @ NC State

[Coleman]

Last night's action:

Big home win for West Virginia (15-10) over #11 ISU (18-5)

Tough home loss for Florida State (14-10) to Miami (12-12)

Georgetown (15-9) at home over Providence (16-9)

Maryland (14-11) falls on the road to #17 Virginia (20-5)


Tonight's action for Bubble Teams:

#3 Florida @ Tennessee

Clemson @ Notre Dame

Wake Forest @ NC State

Georgetown is looking pretty good now, especially with the win over MSU on their resume.

Any chance the Big East still gets 5 with Creighton, Nova, Georgetown, and 2 of either Providence, St. John's, Xavier or MU (gotta hold out hope)?

Looks very possible...

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Georgetown is looking pretty good now, especially with the win over MSU on their resume.

Any chance the Big East still gets 5 with Creighton, Nova, Georgetown, and 2 of either Providence, St. John's, Xavier or MU (gotta hold out hope)?

Looks very possible...

I think it is a definite possibility.  I am also of the opinion that Xavier is in pretty good shape right now. 

[4th and State]

Georgetown is looking pretty good now, especially with the win over MSU on their resume.

Any chance the Big East still gets 5 with Creighton, Nova, Georgetown, and 2 of either Providence, St. John's, Xavier or MU (gotta hold out hope)?

Looks very possible...

Georgetown is making a very strong case and I think they make it in when it's all over.  Creighton and Villanova are locks.  Xavier also has a good shot to make it at the moment.  Providence is in decent position, but had a tough loss last night, and STJ is surging.  MU still controls destiny but will needs a signature win with only a couple losses on they way.  5 bids is very possible, not sure MU will be one of them though.