MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on February 10, 2014, 01:58:54 PM
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A more clear picture of "The Bubble" is starting to form. Obviously every day changes things, but this is the latest look at Lunardi's bubble:
Last Four Byes
Colorado (18-6; RPI:25)
Minnesota (16-8; RPI:39)
Tennessee (15-8; RPI:47)
Florida State (14-9; RPI:54)
Last Four In
Providence (16-8; RPI:50)
LSU (15-7; RPI:61)
BYU (17-9; RPI:41)
Missouri (16-7; RPI:49)
First Four Out
Georgetown (14-9; RPI:57)
Saint Joe's (16-7; RPI:46)
Clemson (15-7; RPI:65)
Ole Miss (16-7; RPI:56)
Next Four Out
Louisana Tech (20-5; RPI:69)
West Virginia (14-10; RPI:72)
St. John's (15-9; RPI:62)
Oregon (15-8; RPI:42)
Others Considered
Baylor (14-9; RPI:58)
Indiana (14-9; RPI:79)
Marquette (13-10; RPI:88)
Richmond (16-7; RPI:43)
Dayton (16-8; RPI:60)
Arkansas (15-8; RPI:80)
Maryland (14-10; RPI:74)
St Mary's (18-7; RPI:53)
Rattle off three in a row vs. Seton Hall, Xavier and Creighton and things will be looking very good. Let's get'er done boys.
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Rattle off three in a row vs. Seton Hall, Xavier and Creighton and things will be looking very good. Let's get'er done boys.
+1
We are out ... for now. We have to start winning and we can win the next three. Do that and everything changes.
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A fun site to play with is rpiwizard.com.
Ran some projections for the last 8. RPI will be around 55 with 2 losses, as long as they aren't to DePaul or SHU. 7-1 will have them low to mid-40's, barring that loss being a bad one.
The Butler away game was a huge missed opportunity. With the road win weight, it would have given a little bit of cushion.
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. . .
. . .
Others Considered
Baylor (14-9; RPI:58)
Indiana (14-9; RPI:79)
Marquette (13-10; RPI:88)
Richmond (16-7; RPI:43)
Dayton (16-8; RPI:60)
Arkansas (15-8; RPI:80)
Maryland (14-10; RPI:74)
St Mary's (18-7; RPI:53)
. . .
. . .
The most interesting thing here is we made the "Others Considered" list. No way we should be on that list....Why are we there? Because MU has a rep.... 3 years in a row we overachieved and beat expectations. That rep will be good when they crunch the numbers at the end.
I used to think the minimum was 20-11 (7-1 down the stretch)...and even 0-1 in BET we would get in.......19-12 even with a 2-1 BET would knock us out.
But maybe not....maybe 19-12 would be good enough with an extra win in the BET....simply on reputation.
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The most interesting thing here is we made the "Others Considered" list. No way we should be on that list....Why are we there? Because MU has a rep.... 3 years in a row we overachieved and beat expectations. That rep will be good when they crunch the numbers at the end.
I used to think the minimum was 20-11 (7-1 down the stretch)...and even 0-1 in BET we would get in.......19-12 even with a 2-1 BET would knock us out.
But maybe not....maybe 19-12 would be good enough with an extra win in the BET....simply on reputation.
Reputation? Yeah...sure. I've never heard a committee member say they used "reputation" as a factor.
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Except we are 23 games into the schedule and the only reason we even have a two game winning streak this year is because of 'cupcakes'.
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Everyone can have an opinion. We get a quality win (Creighton or 'Nova) and do not screw up with some of the weaker teams we are in the hunt. There will be some uncertainty but what is new? The point is, it is no time to give up. We still have a shot. The glass is half full.
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Everyone can have an opinion. We get a quality win (Creighton or 'Nova) and do not screw up with some of the weaker teams we are in the hunt. There will be some uncertainty but what is new? The point is, it is no time to give up. We still have a shot. The glass is half full.
Yup, pretty much the deal. Have to win some games, most importantly have to get some attractive scalps and that means Creighton, St J, G'Town and it would be great to get Nova. Unlikely, but that is why they play the games.
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St. Johns, Gtown and Prov are all currently higher up on the bubble.
Beat those 3 teams and we really have a chance to rise as well. Especially considering two of them would be sweeps.
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Help me out with the terminology here. Which group is supposed to be better, the First 4 out or the Next 4 out? If they are really named appropriately, the Next 4 Out should be the better group, since the other group is already out (first!). Looking at these two quartets it's hard to know which is which - the records are quite comparable, but the First 4 Out have, on average, the better RPI's. Are they really the Last 4 Out and the Next-to-last 4 Out?
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No, its name properly.
First 4 out are the first 4 teams just barely out of the tourney. The Next 4 are the four that follow.
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Yup, pretty much the deal. Have to win some games, most importantly have to get some attractive scalps and that means Creighton, St J, G'Town and it would be great to get Nova. Unlikely, but that is why they play the games.
Gotta win tomorow first. A loss @ SH and we are pretty much toast barring winning the BE tourney..
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Gotta win tomorow first. A loss @ SH and we are pretty much toast barring winning the BE tourney..
Yup. The term is usually win and in. Tomorrow it's win and not out...yet.
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Survive and advance.
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Got to be pretty disappointing that we are about two farts in the hot tub away from even being close to the bubble. Oh well, there is always next year to get excited about.
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Still hoping this team finds itself and wins more than every other game.
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Look at Jerry Palm on CBS.
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Is the bubble hard or soft?
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Look at Jerry Palm on CBS.
Are you endorsing Jerry Palm?
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Are you endorsing Jerry Palm?
If Jerry Palm was on ESPN, everyone would be talking about him. I do enjoy both! He does BCS rankings as well. He is on alot The Tim Brando Show and Paul Finebaum.
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If Jerry Palm was on ESPN, everyone would be talking about him. I do enjoy both! He does BCS rankings as well. He is on alot The Tim Brando Show and Paul Finebaum.
Meh. I follow both, but Palm is definitely not as knowledgable as Joey Brackets. I don't think Lunardi is the end-all-be-all, but Palm isn't my favorite.
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Last night's action:
Big home win for West Virginia (15-10) over #11 ISU (18-5)
Tough home loss for Florida State (14-10) to Miami (12-12)
Georgetown (15-9) at home over Providence (16-9)
Maryland (14-11) falls on the road to #17 Virginia (20-5)
Tonight's action for Bubble Teams:
#3 Florida @ Tennessee
Clemson @ Notre Dame
Wake Forest @ NC State
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Last night's action:
Big home win for West Virginia (15-10) over #11 ISU (18-5)
Tough home loss for Florida State (14-10) to Miami (12-12)
Georgetown (15-9) at home over Providence (16-9)
Maryland (14-11) falls on the road to #17 Virginia (20-5)
Tonight's action for Bubble Teams:
#3 Florida @ Tennessee
Clemson @ Notre Dame
Wake Forest @ NC State
Georgetown is looking pretty good now, especially with the win over MSU on their resume.
Any chance the Big East still gets 5 with Creighton, Nova, Georgetown, and 2 of either Providence, St. John's, Xavier or MU (gotta hold out hope)?
Looks very possible...
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Georgetown is looking pretty good now, especially with the win over MSU on their resume.
Any chance the Big East still gets 5 with Creighton, Nova, Georgetown, and 2 of either Providence, St. John's, Xavier or MU (gotta hold out hope)?
Looks very possible...
I think it is a definite possibility. I am also of the opinion that Xavier is in pretty good shape right now.
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Georgetown is looking pretty good now, especially with the win over MSU on their resume.
Any chance the Big East still gets 5 with Creighton, Nova, Georgetown, and 2 of either Providence, St. John's, Xavier or MU (gotta hold out hope)?
Looks very possible...
Georgetown is making a very strong case and I think they make it in when it's all over. Creighton and Villanova are locks. Xavier also has a good shot to make it at the moment. Providence is in decent position, but had a tough loss last night, and STJ is surging. MU still controls destiny but will needs a signature win with only a couple losses on they way. 5 bids is very possible, not sure MU will be one of them though.
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Almost makes you wonder if 6 bids is possible
Nova, Creighton, Georgetown, X, St Johns, Providence...if all the chips fall exactly the right way
And who knows, maybe MU wins the BET and pushes it to 7. We can dream right?
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Georgetown is making a very strong case and I think they make it in when it's all over. Creighton and Villanova are locks. Xavier also has a good shot to make it at the moment. Providence is in decent position, but had a tough loss last night, and STJ is surging. MU still controls destiny but will needs a signature win with only a couple losses on they way. 5 bids is very possible, not sure MU will be one of them though.
I think Providence is in trouble, personally.
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I think Providence is in trouble, personally.
I agree. Their lack of depth is catching up with them.
If MU gets hot, the schedule frankly couldn't be better. Getting X, GU, SJU, and CU at home is big. Still time, though I'm not holding my breath.
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They are definitely trending in the wrong direction.
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Almost makes you wonder if 6 bids is possible
Nova, Creighton, Georgetown, X, St Johns, Providence...if all the chips fall exactly the right way
And who knows, maybe MU wins the BET and pushes it to 7. We can dream right?
Wow - someone's smokin' the Gonj...
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Meh. I follow both, but Palm is definitely not as knowledgable as Joey Brackets. I don't think Lunardi is the end-all-be-all, but Palm isn't my favorite.
I don't know the stats, but i think Jerry Palm gets the final four teams more correct, than Joey.
Both should be looked at!
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Wow - someone's smokin' the Gonj...
dreamin' never hurt nobody!
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Does anyone know if its a soft bubble?
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Does anyone know if its a soft bubble?
I've located it, what do you think?
(http://www.bubblews.com/assets/images/news/808625837_1383068269.jpg)
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I've located it, what do you think?
(http://www.bubblews.com/assets/images/news/808625837_1383068269.jpg)
Really glad to see that at least the bubble has not burst (pending tonight's game)!
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Tonight's action for Bubble Teams:
#3 Florida @ Tennessee
Clemson @ Notre Dame
Wake Forest @ NC State
Florida takes care of Tennessee on the road.
The Domers out last Clemson in 2OT on at home.
NC State downs Wake at home.
MU takes care of business at the Hall.
I'm telling ya, a win this weekend over X and MU is right there...for now.
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Butler could help a brother out against Xavier tonight
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I'm telling ya, a win this weekend over X and MU is right there...for now.
Been saying for the better part of a month now that I think MU will probably finish third in the Big East. Could be there, perhaps to stay, as soon as Saturday.
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Great day of results for bubble-ish teams for MU...
Ole Miss just lost to a bad Alabama team.
Clemson loses to ND.
OK State gets blasted by Texas.
Tennesse loses at home to Florida.
Ok state and tenn are probably in, but anything to level the playing field. Marquette just has to keep winning.
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Butler could help a brother out against Xavier tonight
Xavier won by double digits, unfortunately.
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X dances. But tonight's win sets up critically important opportunity Saturday.
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I was for X winning. Need to solidify their resume to ensure another Big East bid. MU needs to beat them anyways on Saturday.
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The only game MU can lose and still have a shot is @ Villanova.
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I was for X winning. Need to solidify their resume to ensure another Big East bid. MU needs to beat them anyways on Saturday.
This is the right way to look at it, IMO.
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This is the right way to look at it, IMO.
Absolutely. We must beat the Musketeers to have any shot at a bid. A loss to Villanova won't kill us, but a win against them would definitely get us at the bubble, if we do not lose to some other schlub. IMO 20-11 regular season and two wins in the BEast tourney, will likely solidify a bid. That is the only way we get in (aside from winning the tourney)
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The only game MU can lose and still have a shot is @ Villanova.
Disagree. A little more wriggle room than that. That means they end up 11-7 and probably fourth in the regular season standings. It then depends on who they lose to outside of Nova. It also means at least two BET wins would be critical.
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Guys lets me realistic here. We can lose one more regular season game the rest of the way and lose one in the big east tournament excluding the opening round. They are not going to take a team with 13 losses especially in this new big east and especially with only 1 quality with. The year we got the 11 seed i believe we had 12 losses but that was in a stacked big east. The only game we can afford to lose is villanova anything else and i think we are done.
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As for x making it. Have you looked at their schedule. I can see 6 potential losses. At MU at Gtown At Seton Hall At SJU vs creighton vs villanova even if they split thats 3 losses. They are not a lock.
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Guys lets me realistic here. We can lose one more regular season game the rest of the way and lose one in the big east tournament excluding the opening round. They are not going to take a team with 13 losses especially in this new big east and especially with only 1 quality with. The year we got the 11 seed i believe we had 12 losses but that was in a stacked big east. The only game we can afford to lose is villanova anything else and i think we are done.
These hard and fast rules don't always fit. There are 68 teams now, not 64. There have been 14 loss teams that had at-large bids. It depends on who we lose to and beat if we go 11-7. We need to get to the BET championship game though if we only go 11-7 however.
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As for x making it. Have you looked at their schedule. I can see 6 potential losses. At MU at Gtown At Seton Hall At SJU vs creighton vs villanova even if they split thats 3 losses. They are not a lock.
Correct. Only locks are Creighton and Villanova. Another spot or two from the confence likely up for grabs. Third place team will get in, and right now its looking like that may be MU. Xavier, Georgetown, St. John's, Providence, also very much in the mix. Still basically a month of regular season left to play.
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Guys lets me realistic here. We can lose one more regular season game the rest of the way and lose one in the big east tournament excluding the opening round. They are not going to take a team with 13 losses especially in this new big east and especially with only 1 quality with. The year we got the 11 seed i believe we had 12 losses but that was in a stacked big east. The only game we can afford to lose is villanova anything else and i think we are done.
vs. Xavier - W
vs. Creighton - W
@ DePaul - W
vs. Georgetown - W
@ Villanova - L
@ Providence - L
vs. SJU - W
BET - W, L
I think this finish allows us a good chance at getting in, with two more regular season losses. (meaning all we have to do is take care of business at home, beat DePaul at the Allstate, and win one, maybe two, in the BET).
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These hard and fast rules don't always fit. There are 68 teams now, not 64. There have been 14 loss teams that had at-large bids. It depends on who we lose to and beat if we go 11-7. We need to get to the BET championship game though if we only go 11-7 however.
I would tend to agree with you but without any quality wins they are not going to give the nod to us. For comparison clemson is another bubble team. They beat duke that alone would give them the nod. A 14 loss team would have to have some impressive wins i would imagine. I get your point but i dont think this team has the quality wins to fall into that category.
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As for x making it. Have you looked at their schedule. I can see 6 potential losses. At MU at Gtown At Seton Hall At SJU vs creighton vs villanova even if they split thats 3 losses. They are not a lock.
They are only supposed to win 2 of the 6 from an RPI perspective, if they do that...finish with a RPI of 40. Not a lock, but in very good shape. Incidentally, Marquette is projected to beat Xavier in the RPI this weekend.
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Guys lets me realistic here. We can lose one more regular season game the rest of the way and lose one in the big east tournament excluding the opening round. They are not going to take a team with 13 losses especially in this new big east and especially with only 1 quality with. The year we got the 11 seed i believe we had 12 losses but that was in a stacked big east. The only game we can afford to lose is villanova anything else and i think we are done.
Realistic or now, your logic is poor. Mu would have at least 2 quality top50 wins, and most likely in the 5-6 quality win range.
Let's look at that hypothetical of 2 more reg season losses (11-7)...
1) MU has games against X, creighton, and @nova... it'd mean MU wins at least 1 of them.
2) It also means MU would beat Gtown, @Prov, and St johns. Gtown, Prov, and St Johns are all near top-50, and I'd bet two of them will finish there.
3) MU already has GW, @gtown, and Prov under their belts.
I know the narrative of the old infallible Big East isnt there, but the new Big East still has very strong conference numbers. Most other conferences have at least 4-5 Depaul-like teams to beat up on... Big East teams dont have that luxury to pad their win total.
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I would tend to agree with you but without any quality wins they are not going to give the nod to us. For comparison clemson is another bubble team. They beat duke that alone would give them the nod. A 14 loss team would have to have some impressive wins i would imagine. I get your point but i dont think this team has the quality wins to fall into that category.
Simply not true. It'll help, but in the end its the total résumé that matters. With 1/3 of the conference schedule and conference tournaments left to play, declarations like that simply aren't valid.
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Xavier won by double digits, unfortunately.
A team fighting to get into third place in the Big East and likely a bid to NCAA Tournament putting in a strong performance to win on the road against the worst team in the league. Must be nice not to shoot your own foot.
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Wow completely shocked looking back to 2010-11 we had 14 losses and got a 11 seed.
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Updated results though last night. *Records vs D-1 oppenents only* This is still based off Lunardi's Feb 10 bracketology - I will update again when he issues a new one.
Last Four Byes
Colorado (18-6; RPI:24)
Minnesota (15-8; RPI:39)
Tennessee (14-9; RPI:49)
Florida State (14-10; RPI:63)
Last Four In
Providence (16-9; RPI:52)
LSU (15-7; RPI:59)
BYU (15-9; RPI:46)
Missouri (16-7; RPI:47)
First Four Out
Georgetown (15-9; RPI:53)
Saint Joe's (16-7; RPI:45)
Clemson (15-8; RPI:68)
Ole Miss (16-8; RPI:61)
Next Four Out
Louisana Tech (19-5; RPI:72)
West Virginia (15-10; RPI:64)
St. John's (15-9; RPI:62)
Oregon (15-8; RPI:41)
Others Considered
Baylor (12-9; RPI:58)
Indiana (14-9; RPI:74)
Marquette (14-10; RPI:70)
Richmond (15-8; RPI:44)
Dayton (16-8; RPI:57)
Arkansas (15-8; RPI:73)
Maryland (14-11; RPI:75)
St Mary's (17-7; RPI:56)
Tonights bubble action:
Baylor @ TCU
Penn State @ Indiana
Rhode Island @ Dayton
Cal @ Washington State
Stanford @ Washington
LSU @ TA&M
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Wow completely shocked looking back to 2010-11 we had 14 losses and got a 11 seed.
Some will say we were last four in, others will say last 6 in.
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Realistic or now, your logic is poor. Mu would have at least 2 quality top50 wins, and most likely in the 5-6 quality win range.
Let's look at that hypothetical of 2 more reg season losses (11-7)...
1) MU has games against X, creighton, and @nova... it'd mean MU wins at least 1 of them.
2) It also means MU would beat Gtown, @Prov, and St johns. Gtown, Prov, and St Johns are all near top-50, and I'd bet two of them will finish there.
3) MU already has GW, @gtown, and Prov under their belts.
I would add if we get to the BET Championship game it would be nearly guaranteed we would have beaten either Nova, Creighton, or X on a neutral court.
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Also want to add...
Richmond at Duquesne
New Mexico at Boise State
Both Richmond and Boise were bubble teams a week ago. Wouldn't mind them dropping their games to take them completely off the radar.
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I'm viewing the remainder of the season as having to win 7 games. Go 7-0 in the Regular Season and we can lose in the first round of BET and still be safe (I think). Go 6-1 have to win 1 game. 5-2, have to make the championship game. 4-3 or worse - must win BET.
So, for me, 7 more wins means we're in, however we get them.
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I'm viewing the remainder of the season as having to win 7 games. Go 7-0 in the Regular Season and we can lose in the first round of BET and still be safe (I think). Go 6-1 have to win 1 game. 5-2, have to make the championship game. 4-3 or worse - must win BET.
So, for me, 7 more wins means we're in, however we get them.
Well said. I'm on board with this.
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Looking at Lundari above ...
Four NBE teams in = Nova, Creighton, X, Prov
Bubble = Georgetown, as they are literally first out
Still in the conversation but out as of now = MU and St. Johns
Not in the conversation = Butler, Seton Hall, DePaul
I think this sound about right.
Thoughts?
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Looking at Lundari above ...
Four NBE teams in = Nova, Creighton, X, Prov
Bubble = Georgetown, as they are literally first out
Still in the conversation but out as of now = MU and St. Johns
Not in the conversation = Butler, Seton Hall, DePaul
I think this sound about right.
Thoughts?
I think Providence, having lost 4 out of their last 5, is now in a similar situation as us where they will need to finish out the reg season 4-2 to still be in the picture.
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Some will say we were last four in, others will say last 6 in.
Three play in at large teams (Clemson, UAB, USC ) were definitely in after us. 12 seeds (Utah St, Richmond, Memphis) likely behind us. 11 seeds (Missouri and Gonnzaga) a toss up. You'll say the 12 seeds might have been in ahead of us. If that's true we could have been in ahead of the 10 seeds. So, we were somewhere between the 4th last to the 13th last team in.
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I'm viewing the remainder of the season as having to win 7 games. Go 7-0 in the Regular Season and we can lose in the first round of BET and still be safe (I think). Go 6-1 have to win 1 game. 5-2, have to make the championship game. 4-3 or worse - must win BET.
So, for me, 7 more wins means we're in, however we get them.
6-1 is lock city considering this year's bubble... that being said, it's a tall order. It would mean adding 5 of these 6 wins to our profile... Xavier, Creighton, Gtown, @Providence, @Nova, and St Johns. It would put Marquette at 20-11 prior to the BET with a matchup against either Xavier, Gtown, Providence, or St Johns. None of these teams would kill our chances if we lost in the first round of the BET unless we got smoked by 20+.
People are overrating the resumes of the last teams who will get in the tourney.
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The only bubble action F*ckin's in for tonight is passin' gas in the bathtub.
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I'll be at Reed Arena tonight hopefully watching the Aggies give Marquette an assist by beating LSU
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Looking at Lundari above ...
Four NBE teams in = Nova, Creighton, X, Prov
Bubble = Georgetown, as they are literally first out
Still in the conversation but out as of now = MU and St. Johns
Not in the conversation = Butler, Seton Hall, DePaul
I think this sound about right.
Thoughts?
I think that is a fair snap-shot of where we stand RIGHT NOW. Although, Providence is trending down and Gtown and STJ are trending up. Not ready to put MU in the trending up category, but a win this weekend would do wonders. Bottom line - just win. But as some other posters have pointed out, this is going to be a weak bubble, and the teams MU are going to be up against for the final few spots have spotty resumes. We're not nearly as far away from an at-large bids as some of the posters here want to think.
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6-1 is lock city considering this year's bubble... that being said, it's a tall order. It would mean adding 5 of these 6 wins to our profile... Xavier, Creighton, Gtown, @Providence, @Nova, and St Johns. It would put Marquette at 20-11 prior to the BET with a matchup against either Xavier, Gtown, Providence, or St Johns. None of these teams would kill our chances if we lost in the first round of the BET unless we got smoked by 20+.
People are overrating the resumes of the last teams who will get in the tourney.
6-1 w/ a quarterfinal loss in the BET, and I'll personally be sweating on Selection Sunday. You may be right, but I won't feel confident of a spot until we win that 7th game.
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I think that is a fair snap-shot of where we stand RIGHT NOW. Although, Providence is trending down and Gtown and STJ are trending up. Not ready to put MU in the trending up category, but a win this weekend would do wonders. Bottom line - just win. But as some other posters have pointed out, this is going to be a weak bubble, and the teams MU are going to be up against for the final few spots have spotty resumes. We're not nearly as far away from an at-large bids as some of the posters here want to think.
Correct--we are a bubble team.
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Some good and bad news regarding the bubble:
Good
UMass loses again (George Mason at home!)
Stanford loses at UDub
LSU loses at TA&M (thank you TAMU Eagle!)
Bad
Richmond wins at Duqesne (16-8,6-3)
VCU knocks off George Washington easily (need GW to look like a quality win)
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Some good and bad news regarding the bubble:
Good
UMass loses again (George Mason at home!)
Stanford loses at UDub
LSU loses at TA&M (thank you TAMU Eagle!)
Bad
Richmond wins at Duqesne (16-8,6-3)
VCU knocks off George Washington easily (need GW to look like a quality win)
Crazy game, best the Aggies offense looked all season. Former Marquette target Jamal Jones put on a show with 5/10 from 3. Could definitely have used that this year...
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Few other results...
IU blew a 9pt lead with 2min left at home to PSU.
Boise State tipped New Mex by 1.
Cal avoided a very bad loss by outlasting WSU in overtime.
Richmond easily handled Duquesne.
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Crazy game, best the Aggies offense looked all season. Former Marquette target Jamal Jones put on a show with 5/10 from 3. Could definitely have used that this year...
Jamail Jones is at FGCU unless there's another one I forgot we recruited?
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Twitta tracka...
@JonRothstein: This might be the softest bubble I can remember for the NCAA Tournament. Several power leagues with only a handful of teams that are locks.
Rothstein is a respected analyst for CBS, keeps good tabs on teams' tourney profiles, etc. This year is wide open for MU to snag a bid if they go 6-1 or 5-2 down the stretch... Lot of flawed resumes out there.
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Twitta tracka...
@JonRothstein: This might be the softest bubble I can remember for the NCAA Tournament. Several power leagues with only a handful of teams that are locks.
Rothstein is a respected analyst for CBS, keeps good tabs on teams' tourney profiles, etc. This year is wide open for MU to snag a bid if they go 6-1 or 5-2 down the stretch... Lot of flawed resumes out there.
That is likely accurate, but so is our resume. If we get in we will need 6-1, maybe 5-2 if we beat both Creighton and Vanillanova,
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If you had to choose between a double digit seed in the NCAAs and getting knocked out in the first round or a NIT final four, which would you take? I'd probably take the NCAA bid, partly because of our streak, but it's close.
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If you had to choose between a double digit seed in the NCAAs and getting knocked out in the first round or a NIT final four, which would you take? I'd probably take the NCAA bid, partly because of our streak, but it's close.
NOT CLOSE. NCAA every time. I would take losing in the NCAA play-in game over winning the NIT.
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If you had to choose between a double digit seed in the NCAAs and getting knocked out in the first round or a NIT final four, which would you take? I'd probably take the NCAA bid, partly because of our streak, but it's close.
Really? NCAA every single time. You never know what can happen. Who cares about the NIT? If we end up there, I guess I will care this year, but every other year, I may watch a game or two in the NIT. Who remembers the NIT final four? The answer is very few.
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Really? NCAA every single time. You never know what can happen. Who cares about the NIT? If we end up there, I guess I will care this year, but every other year, I may watch a game or two in the NIT. Who remembers the NIT final four? The answer is very few.
But that's not the question - it's a hypothetical where you DO know what happens. Sure, nobody remembers the NIT final four but nobody remembers the 11 seed that got bounced on Thursday afternoon either.
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The only thing I hold my hat on is that the Big East is third in the RPI.
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NCAA every time, and twice on (selection) Sunday.
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NCAA every time, and twice on (selection) Sunday.
+1.
Heck, this year I'd try to roadtrip to Dayton.
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If you had to choose between a double digit seed in the NCAAs and getting knocked out in the first round or a NIT final four, which would you take? I'd probably take the NCAA bid, partly because of our streak, but it's close.
NCAA bid every time. Even if we get blasted like did vs Providence in 1997.
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But that's not the question - it's a hypothetical where you DO know what happens. Sure, nobody remembers the NIT final four but nobody remembers the 11 seed that got bounced on Thursday afternoon either.
People remember a program as perennial tourney-goers and each invite solidifes that reputation, which in turn, leads to an increased fan base, more revenue, better facilities, better recruits, etc.
Nobody remembers who wins an NIT much less who's in the "NIT Final Four." Honestly, for the life of me, without the aid of the nets, I can't remember who won the NIT last year.
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But that's not the question - it's a hypothetical where you DO know what happens. Sure, nobody remembers the NIT final four but nobody remembers the 11 seed that got bounced on Thursday afternoon either.
The bottom line is that saying we're going for 10 straight ncaa appearances sounds a lot better than saying we ended our streak but had a successful run in the NIT
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Lol idk how this can even be a debate.
The NCAA tourney is the only answer.
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Lunardi's latest bracketology looks like this. He did not issue a "Bracket Math" today, so no other contenders.
Last Four Byes
Colorado (18-6; RPI:24)
Minnesota (15-8; RPI:39)
Tennessee (14-9; RPI:50)
BYU (16-9; RPI:45)
Last Four In
Georgetown (15-9; RPI:57)
Providence (16-9; RPI:55)
Florida State (14-10; RPI:64)
West Virginia (15-10; RPI:66)
First Four Out
LSU (15-8; RPI:65)
Missouri (16-7; RPI:48)
Richmond (16-8; RPI:41)
Saint Joe's (16-7; RPI:44)
Next Four Out
Louisiana Tech (19-5; RPI:72)
Clemson (15-8; RPI:68)
Dayton (17-8; RPI:58)
Ole Miss (16-8; RPI:62)
Others In Contention (*Note this is more my list, since Lunardi did not do a Bracket Math today)
Marquette (14-10; RPI:70)
St. John's (15-9; RPI:61)
Oregon (15-8; RPI:42)
Baylor (13-9; RPI:53)
NC State (16-8; RPI: 51)
Indiana State (17-6; RPI:54)
Boise State (14-9; RPI: 59)
Arkansas (15-8; RPI:69)
St Mary's (17-7; RPI:56)
Indiana (14-10; RPI:91)
Maryland (14-11; RPI:76)
Nebraska (13-10; RPI: 63)
Utah (14-7; RPI: 102)
Bubble Action Tonight:
Arkansas @ Missouri
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
St. Johns @ Seton Hall
Colorado @ UCLA
BYU @ Pacific
Utah @ USC
San Diego @ St. Mary’s
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I could see Seton Hall tripping up St. Johns tonight in Jersey. The Johnnies are looking forward to some homecooking against Gtown and Butler, and Seton Hall has lost 3 of 4 (oddly their one win came @Xavier by 8), looking to turn things around. The Pirates are not going to crawl in a hole like DePaul--too much talent and let's not forget they have won @Gtown, @Providence, and the aforementioned @Xavier. That's impressive.
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I could see Seton Hall tripping up St. Johns tonight in Jersey. The Johnnies are looking forward to some homecooking against Gtown and Butler, and Seton Hall has lost 3 of 4 (oddly their one win came @Xavier by 8), looking to turn things around. The Pirates are not going to crawl in a hole like DePaul--too much talent and let's not forget they have won @Gtown, @Providence, and the aforementioned @Xavier. That's impressive.
I was thinking the same thing. I could see Seton Hall being the key in knocking off the teams around us and helping us to a 3rd place finish. That 1-4 record at home will definitely even itself out with the talent they have. My guess is we will be 11-7 which will probably gives us a 60% of getting in.
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Last Four In
Georgetown (15-9; RPI:57)
Providence (16-9; RPI:55)
Florida State (14-10; RPI:64)
West Virginia (15-10; RPI:66)
First Four Out
LSU (15-8; RPI:65)
Missouri (16-7; RPI:48)
Richmond (16-8; RPI:41)
Saint Joe's (16-7; RPI:44)
Having a real hard time figuring out what the hell Joey Brackets is thinking here. 3 of his "First Four Out" have significantly better RPI than every single one of his "Last Four In"..... although it does favor the Big East so I guess I shouldn't complain
And West Virginia in the field? Right now? Are you kidding me?
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Having a real hard time figuring out what the hell Joey Brackets is thinking here. 3 of his "First Four Out" have significantly higher RPI than every single one of his "Last Four In".....
West Virginia in the field? Right now? Are you kidding me?
Hey, somebody cited that Brackets has MU on the bubble, justifying that position. So, he must be gospel. Think we need to wait for several more games to start to sort it out. By then we may have 60 teams on the "soft Bubble"
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The only thing I hold my hat on is that the Big East is third in the RPI.
Which is why finishing third above a likely NCAA team in Xavier would at least give MU a fair point to whine about when they're not invited.
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Having a real hard time figuring out what the hell Joey Brackets is thinking here. 3 of his "First Four Out" have significantly better RPI than every single one of his "Last Four In"..... although it does favor the Big East so I guess I shouldn't complain
And West Virginia in the field? Right now? Are you kidding me?
That last 4 in does look suspect. Especially GT--right Wade'sWorld?
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Having a real hard time figuring out what the hell Joey Brackets is thinking here. 3 of his "First Four Out" have significantly better RPI than every single one of his "Last Four In"..... although it does favor the Big East so I guess I shouldn't complain
And West Virginia in the field? Right now? Are you kidding me?
Regarding WVU, they just shellacked Iowa State by 25pts on Monday... since it's so fresh, they probably got a bigger than usual bump from that win. Same could happen to MU down the stretch if we beat Creighton or win at Nova.
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Sweeping Georgetown and Providence would make it hard for the committee to take them ahead of us.
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The only thing I hold my hat on is that the Big East is third in the RPI.
4th
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Lunardi had Marquette as one of the 39 teams in consideration for 30 at large spots in the mock selection committee today. It's all over his twitter. Seems we are closer to the field than most thoughts.
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Sweeping Georgetown and Providence would make it hard for the committee to take them ahead of us.
Might actually be the key so long as we don't suffer a 'bad' loss.
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Might actually be the key so long as we don't suffer a 'bad' loss.
No bad losses anymore other than DePaul--only games we cannot lose.
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Jamail Jones is at FGCU unless there's another one I forgot we recruited?
Not Jamail, Jamal. Jamal Jones was a top 20 JUCO last season. Was down to us, TAMU, and one other if I remember correctly. Ended up an Aggie.
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Lunardi had Marquette as one of the 39 teams in consideration for 30 at large spots in the mock selection committee today. It's all over his twitter. Seems we are closer to the field than most thoughts.
http://storify.com/marchmadness/2014-media-mock-selection
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Jerry breaks it down
http://www.youtube.com/v/JdP2t_fC_68&feature=youtube_gdata
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Some good results for us tonight...
Byu takes a bad loss to Pacific.
Colorado gets smoked by Ucla.
Minnesota loses to Wiscy.
Vandy loses to a horrible So Carolina.
Arkansas loses to Mizzou.
If MU beats X on Saturday, I wouldnt be surprised to see Lunardi put us in the "next four out" on Monday.
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I was just looking at all the conferences and the one thing I notice that I felt was a positive was that all the typical one bid conferences did not have an absolutely dominate team that we had to worry about being beaten in conference tournament. The only one that looked like they may get consideration if they lost conference tournament was Toledo at 21-3. The Bultler game is turning out to be a bad loss. St. John's losing to DePaul is a bad loss and Providence losing at Home to Seton Hall is a bad loss.
Ohio St. NCAA lock
Arizona St. likely NCAA tournament
San Diego St. NCAA lock
Wisconsin NCAA lock
New Mexico likely NCAA tournament
Creighton NCAA lock
Xavier likely NCAA tournament
Butler likely no post season
Villanova NCAA lock
St John's bubble team
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Look, we have a lot of business to take care of before we are entitled to have this discussion.
Right now, I would be shamed to see us in the NCAA. Period. We don't deserve it!
That said, I thought the SHU game was an interesting turn-around. We won a road game against a team that by all measures should have beaten us. We played strong on the boards and our senior leadership finally stepped up. Finally, there was a glimmer of hope.
Was it too late? We'll see. They have to follow it up with a convincing win against Xavier Saturday and probably start to play like they mean it. If our seniors show some maturity, we could run the table and then be a bubble team. Until then, ;et's talk about recruiting or Steve Taylor's minutes!
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Not sure the wins need to be convincing, they just have to win.
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Look, we have a lot of business to take care of before we are entitled to have this discussion.
Right now, I would be shamed to see us in the NCAA. Period. We don't deserve it!
That said, I thought the SHU game was an interesting turn-around. We won a road game against a team that by all measures should have beaten us. We played strong on the boards and our senior leadership finally stepped up. Finally, there was a glimmer of hope.
Was it too late? We'll see. They have to follow it up with a convincing win against Xavier Saturday and probably start to play like they mean it. If our seniors show some maturity, we could run the table and then be a bubble team. Until then, ;et's talk about recruiting or Steve Taylor's minutes!
Sorry, but you're just flat out wrong. I don't necessarily think MU should be in the tournament if it started tomorrow, but the fact is, they're in spitting distance. You and the others who want to think we're still 30 or more teams away from the bubble can do that, but you're wrong.
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Sorry, but you're just flat out wrong. I don't necessarily think MU should be in the tournament if it started tomorrow, but the fact is, they're in spitting distance. You and the others who want to think we're still 30 or more teams away from the bubble can do that, but you're wrong.
I've not seen anyone here suggest MU is 30 spots away. I think most reasonable people have put it more like 8 to 15 spots away. Not the first four out, not the next four out, but in that next group...as of today.
I know you guys here are HUGE Bleacher Report fans ;D, they have MU in the conversation as 6 through 10.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1958970-ncaa-bracket-predictions-2014-projecting-the-march-madness-field-at-week-15
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I've not seen anyone here suggest MU is 30 spots away. I think most reasonable people have put it more like 8 to 15 spots away. Not the first four out, not the next four out, but in that next group...as of today.
I know you guys here are HUGE Bleacher Report fans ;D, they have MU in the conversation as 6 through 10.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1958970-ncaa-bracket-predictions-2014-projecting-the-march-madness-field-at-week-15
30 was a slight exaggeration, but several posters have made comments such as "we are not entitled to even have this discussion" regarding MU making the tourney. Well, that just isn't accurate, but the line is very thin, no doubt.
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Crashing the dance has us 17th on the Out list. They would argue that our fate is still in our own hands. We are not yet in the "Must Win Conference Tourney" mode but any bad loss would do it. Tuesday at SHU was an elimination game. Perhaps tomorrow against Xavier is the same. So we better not lose.
http://crashingthedance.com/select.php
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Sorry, but you're just flat out wrong. I don't necessarily think MU should be in the tournament if it started tomorrow, but the fact is, they're in spitting distance. You and the others who want to think we're still 30 or more teams away from the bubble can do that, but you're wrong.
If we're in spitting distance, you've got one heck of a set of lungs.
We have work to do, dude. Flat out, period. We don't win virtually all our remaining scheduled games, we better win the Big East tourney. Period.
The only loss we can tolerate left on our schedule is Creighton or Villanova. Not both. Just one. Lose to both or anyone else and it's hello NIT!
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If we're in spitting distance, you've got one heck of a set of lungs.
We have work to do, dude. Flat out, period. We don't win virtually all our remaining scheduled games, we better win the Big East tourney. Period.
The only loss we can tolerate left on our schedule is Creighton or Villanova. Not both. Just one. Lose to both or anyone else and it's hello NIT!
We may be able to lose two more times, the problem is then we MUST get to the final of the BET tourney which means probably beating X, Creighton, or Nova on a neutral court. And you might have to beat two of them on a neutral court to get to the final.
We have a tough road ahead.
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On one hand it would have been nice for St. Johns to lose
On the other hand they are starting to really creep up that so if we can beat them it is starting to look better
If I had a 3rd hand....they only beat Seton Hall by 1 point so us having trouble with SHU for 30 minutes then breaking away doesn't look bad at all.
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I actually don't mind the St Johns win over Seton Hall, and I would have been more upset if Butler had beaten Creighton. The standings separation from SHU, Depaul, and Butler is important to keep the resumes up for the 7 teams actually in contention for NCAA bids.
Thinking longterm, it's important this first year of the NBE to get as many teams into the big dance as possible. Right now, there are 7 BE teams in contention with 5 teams "IN" on Lunardi's latest bracket. Each BE team that dances has chance to do some damage in the tournament... getting 5+ teams in would be great exposure and street-cred for the Big East.
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If we're in spitting distance, you've got one heck of a set of lungs.
We have work to do, dude. Flat out, period. We don't win virtually all our remaining scheduled games, we better win the Big East tourney. Period.
The only loss we can tolerate left on our schedule is Creighton or Villanova. Not both. Just one. Lose to both or anyone else and it's hello NIT!
I never said we didn't have work to do, dude. We have a lot of it. 6-1 is the only way I am comfortable going into the BET. 5-2, and we probably have to win it. But my point is, every team in and around the bubble have major flaws in their resume, just like us. A win versus Xavier this weekend and we are legitimately in the conversation (for the time being), in fact, I would expect us to appear on the Bracket Matrix. That doesn't mean our work is done, or even close to it, but the opportunity is there for the taking with some good basketball the next month.
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From what I can tell, the Big East got at least 5 in the Mock Committee, six depending on St. John's. I gotta wonder if the door is a little more open than we think.
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I believe if they beat Xavier, then beat Creighton next Wednesday, that as of that moment they would be IN(if the tourney started day after Creighton). That being said, there's still a lot of ball to be played after that, but I for one would much rather be presumed in and have to play your way out, then to be considered out and have to play your way in.
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I never said we didn't have work to do, dude. We have a lot of it. 6-1 is the only way I am comfortable going into the BET. 5-2, and we probably have to win it. But my point is, every team in and around the bubble have major flaws in their resume, just like us. A win versus Xavier this weekend and we are legitimately in the conversation (for the time being), in fact, I would expect us to appear on the Bracket Matrix. That doesn't mean our work is done, or even close to it, but the opportunity is there for the taking with some good basketball the next month.
Agreed. I think this is ultimately the main point--despite all of the painful losses this season, we're still in a position that we can control our own destiny. Go on a nice streak at the end of the season here, and we should be in. Continue to do the up-and-down of the rest of the season, and we obviously don't deserve to make it.
Its nice to know that we still have a shot at this point. Now, whether we have the ability to put together such a streak is the main question. But, we'll know a lot more about that after tomorrow.
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I really wish Creighton wasnt a midweek game. Need the Bradley Center to be in full force for that one.
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I really wish Creighton wasnt a midweek game. Need the Bradley Center to be in full force for that one.
Its Thursday night. It should be pretty packed.
Not exactly mid week.
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Its Thursday night. It should be pretty packed.
Not exactly mid week.
If we win tomorrow, Creighton will be packed. If not, doubt it.
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Its Thursday night. It should be pretty packed.
Not exactly mid week.
Creighton is Wednesday night. Exactly mid-week.
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Easy, guys.
We are 24 games into the season and we have yet to win 3 games in a row. And while Buzz' teams usually play better this time of year, I need to be shown. After all, not one team we have beaten in conference has a winning record!
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Easy, guys.
We are 24 games into the season and we have yet to win 3 games in a row. And while Buzz' teams usually play better this time of year, I need to be shown. After all, not one team we have beaten in conference has a winning record!
Considering only 3 teams other than us have a winning conference record...your little tidbit isn't all that shocking.
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Win the next two and I'll start thinking NCAAs. Winning at Seton Hall was encouraging, but they're 1-5 in conference at home.
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Win the next two and I'll start thinking NCAAs. Winning at Seton Hall was encouraging, but they're 1-5 in conference at home.
Start thinking? We would be squarely in at that point.
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Start thinking? We would be squarely in at that point.
Huh? We would still have 4 very tough games of the 5 remaining after that and we'd need to win at least 2 of those 4, plus DePaul, plus one or two in the BET to be safe. That is not squarely in.
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Huh? We would still have 4 very tough games of the 5 remaining after that and we'd need to win at least 2 of those 4, plus DePaul, plus one or two in the BET to be safe. That is not squarely in.
I think he means at that point in time. Obviously we could play our way out after.
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I think he means at that point in time. Obviously we could play our way out after.
Thanks, Hayward.
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It's probably way too early to do it, but since almost everyone plays on the weekend here are some key bubble games this weekend with some teams to root against
WVU @ Texas
NC St @ Syracuse
K State @ Baylor
LSU @ Arkansas
Georgetown @ St Johns
Tennessee @ Mizzou
UVA @ Clemson
FSU @ Wake
Minnesota @ NW
Colorado @ USC
BYU @ St Mary's
Fordham @ Richmond
St Joes @ LaSalle
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It's probably way too early to do it, but since almost everyone plays on the weekend here are some key bubble games this weekend with some teams to root against
WVU @ Texas
NC St @ Syracuse
K State @ Baylor
LSU @ Arkansas
Georgetown @ St Johns
Tennessee @ Mizzou
UVA @ Clemson
FSU @ Wake
Minnesota @ NW
Colorado @ USC
BYU @ St Mary's
Fordham @ Richmond
St Joes @ LaSalle
Blasphemy. I love this.
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In bubble action today we had
SMU getting beat by a very embarrassing Temple squad
Oregon taking down in state rival Oregon State
Nebraska upsetting Michigan State in East Lansing
Minnesota taking care of business at Northwestern
Colorado winning at USC
St. John's crushing the Hoyas
That loss drops SMU into the bubble conversation. The Johnnies may have opened up a space for us by beating GTWN. All the other bubble teams won tonight. I don't know how close Nebraska was to the bubble, but you got to think this upset victory at least puts them in the conversation.
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Unbelievable as it is, SMU is safely in still. They were an 8seed and kenpom is 22. Drop another bad one to Houston and theyre bubble.
Nebraska will definitely join the bubble conversation (still very out), but that can end it quick if they lose to Purdue or PSU at home this week.
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In bubble action today we had
SMU getting beat by a very embarrassing Temple squad
Oregon taking down in state rival Oregon State
Nebraska upsetting Michigan State in East Lansing
Minnesota taking care of business at Northwestern
Colorado winning at USC
St. John's crushing the Hoyas
That loss drops SMU into the bubble conversation. The Johnnies may have opened up a space for us by beating GTWN. All the other bubble teams won tonight. I don't know how close Nebraska was to the bubble, but you got to think this upset victory at least puts them in the conversation.
Colorado 28
Minnesota 33
Oregon 44
SMU is 49
St. John's 52
Nebraska 53
Marquette 76
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The Johnnies may have opened up a space for us by beating GTWN.
I was thinking the same thing. If MU beats Gtown @ home and finishes ahead of them in conference, it would be extremely difficult to put Gtown in ahead of MU. Gtown has another "something's gotta give" game this Saturday against Xavier. Such a wonderful time of the year--glad we're in the mix given it's a "down" year.
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The only thing that matters to me at this point in time is that the bubble still has not popped. Buzz and the boys just gotta keep on winning.
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New Bracketology out on ESPN.... no mention of MU anywhere yet
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch
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New Bracketology out on ESPN.... no mention of MU anywhere yet
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Not good. I wonder if that means we knock off Creighton on Wed. we still will not be 'in'. If we are not in the conversation yet a win on Wed. means probably last four out.
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Not good. I wonder if that means we knock off Creighton on Wed. we still will not be 'in'. If we are not in the conversation yet a win on Wed. means probably last four out.
Um, no. A win against Creighton and we are in for the time being in Lunardi's bracket. I think analysts are just waiting for that marquee win before Marquette becomes the relevant sexy bubble team. Knock down the Jays on Wednesday and we'll be in a lot of projected brackets and receiving a lot more attention from the press.
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Knock down the Jays on Wednesday and we'll be in a lot of projected brackets and receiving a lot more attention from the press.
I have no problem with that.
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Um, no. A win against Creighton and we are in for the time being in Lunardi's bracket. I think analysts are just waiting for that marquee win before Marquette becomes the relevant sexy bubble team. Knock down the Jays on Wednesday and we'll be in a lot of projected brackets and receiving a lot more attention from the press.
It's tough to tell, it'll be close. That would be about 10 teams MU needs to jump.
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It's tough to tell, it'll be close. That would be about 10 teams MU needs to jump.
Just taking a look at the 10,11, and 12 seeds were the tournamnet to be selected today...
SMU
Minnesota
Xavier
Colorado
Richmond
Tennessee
Providence
Oklahoma St.
Mizzou
St. John's
St. Joes
Harvard
Toledo
UWGB
Do you think MU is probably as good or better than a decent percentage of those teams? Answer should be yes...probably about half or more. Play well down the stretch and MU gets in.
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Just taking a look at the 10,11, and 12 seeds were the tournamnet to be selected today...
Do you think MU is probably as good or better than a decent percentage of those teams? Answer should be yes...probably about half or more. Play well down the stretch and MU gets in.
Absolutely, I was talking about where they will stand right after beating Creighton.
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I think we are better than a lot of the 10/11 seeds.
I also follow the gophers a lot and I thnk we would be a terrible match up for team like them. Ox could play huge minutes and dominate.
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http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/17/nbcsports-com-bracketology-a-couple-of-saints-march-into-first-four/
NBC however does have us in consideration. 8th out
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http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/17/nbcsports-com-bracketology-a-couple-of-saints-march-into-first-four/
NBC however does have us in consideration. 8th out
No one can argue that. But we're trending upward, so I think everyone here feels pretty good about where we're going.
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No one can argue that. But we're trending upward, so I think everyone here feels pretty good about where we're going.
Yup. Beat Creighton, the chatter will start to flow in.
Follow that up with two very winnable games...and 18-10, 10-5 in conference....we will have everyone buzzing about the turnaround.
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Yup. Beat Creighton, the chatter will start to flow in.
Follow that up with two very winnable games...and 18-10, 10-5 in conference....we will have everyone buzzing about the turnaround.
Completely agree. Actually think if we win our next two we'll be in every bracket. 17-10, 9-5. RPI should take a major jump with a big win and a road win.
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Completely agree. Actually think if we win our next two we'll be in every bracket. 17-10, 9-5. RPI should take a major jump with a big win and a road win.
I think I saw something that said be beating creighton would jump us to like 58 in RPI. That would be big.
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Does playing & losing to Creighton raise or lower our RPI?
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If anyone is interested in the "what if" game
http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html
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Does playing & losing to Creighton raise or lower our RPI?
Probably lowers it as it would be a home loss due to the ridiculous RPI weighting factors.
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If anyone is interested in the "what if" game
http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html
Just ran the numbers. Pretty much every combination of 4-2 leaves us with an RPI of 52-55. That would give us a shot. 5-1 puts us in the low 40s
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If anyone is interested in the "what if" game
http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html
This is excellent. Thanks.
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Just ran the numbers. Pretty much every combination of 4-2 leaves us with an RPI of 52-55. That would give us a shot. 5-1 puts us in the low 40s
Exactly what I did. Minimum of 4-2 gives us a shot and then we'll see how the conf. tourney shakes out and how "soft" the bubble is this year.
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This is excellent. Thanks.
No problem. It's an exercise in futility, but I spent a fair amount of time messing with the OOC losses. We really were only a couple of losses away from being on the right side of the bubble. Too bad.
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No problem. It's an exercise in futility, but I spent a fair amount of time messing with the OOC losses. We really were only a couple of losses away from being on the right side of the bubble. Too bad.
It really is. If they would have beaten Arizona State OR New Mexico, things would look fine with a 4-2 record to close out the regular season.
Really is a shame, but the opportunity is still there for the taking, and if the team that showed up Saturday continues to, they'll take three more in a row and go into Nova with 18-10 record with a chance to seal up a bid, and if not, a loss is not devastating.
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Yea, the only 2 games I changed in the what if category were the 1st Butler game and the SDSU. game. What a huge difference those would have made...
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Just ran the numbers. Pretty much every combination of 4-2 leaves us with an RPI of 52-55. That would give us a shot. 5-1 puts us in the low 40s
Don't you know the wizard is broken?
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/sc-ncaa-tournament-bubble-ryan-spt-0218-20140218,0,5517431.story
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/02/17/bubble-tracker-nebraska-highlights-big-tens-on-the-fence-teams/5551975/
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So far, not a sniff...meaning of the 81 brackets that are thus far included, not one picked us a even a 13 seed. Beat Creighton, I suspect some might start to change.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/sc-ncaa-tournament-bubble-ryan-spt-0218-20140218,0,5517431.story
Darn pay wall...I feel like if youre a resident of that city the online paper should be free.
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Darn pay wall...I feel like if youre a resident of that city the online paper should be free.
I must not have hit it yet, basically no love for MU but they long posted 4 bubble teams
Last four in
St. Joseph's (17-7, RPI 43, SOS 57). A bad loss in November to Temple hurts, but victories against Massachusetts and VCU should make up for it.
Georgetown (15-10, RPI 58, SOS 24). A loss to Seton Hall is deplorable. Another to Northeastern (No. 223) is even worse. But the Hoyas have strong victories against Kansas State, VCU, St. John's, Michigan State and Providence. They lack a defining road win.
Tennessee (15-10, RPI 54, SOS 11). Put the Vols in the same boat as the Hoyas, lacking in sheer number of victories. Tennessee's best win came against Virginia in late December.
St. John's (17-9, RPI 52, SOS 33). Losing to DePaul is never a good sign. But beating Creighton? That can define a season. The Red Storm have five wins against top-50 RPI teams.
Bubble watch
Nebraska (14-10, RPI 53, SOS 23). The Cornhuskers, winners of six of eight, are getting to work just in time. A victory at Michigan State is a boost. If they win out in the regular season, they'll have 20 victories.
Oklahoma State (16-9, RPI 45, SOS 12). It's do-or-die time for the Cowboys, who have lost seven of eight. Opportunities remain with games against Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State.
Providence (17-9, RPI 57, SOS 59). The Friars have two victories against top-50 RPI teams (Creighton and Xavier), and their win at St. John's counts as a solid road victory. They'll hope a New Year's Eve loss to Seton Hall doesn't haunt them.
Richmond (17-8, RPI 39, SOS 45).The problem with the Spiders' schedule is not much stands out. That might be a deal-breaker in comparison with other bubble teams. A victory against UMass earns them some credit.
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So far, not a sniff...meaning of the 81 brackets that are thus far included, not one picked us a even a 13 seed. Beat Creighton, I suspect some might start to change.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
To be fair, at least half of the brackets haven't been updated since MU's win on Saturday. But I agree, win Wednesday and people will notice.
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To be fair, at least half of the brackets haven't been updated since MU's win on Saturday. But I agree, win Wednesday and people will notice.
Correct, though the half that have don't include us either. With our RPI, we have a lot of work to do.
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Florida State (Lunardi Next four out) just lost at home to UNC. Every little bit helps
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So far, not a sniff...meaning of the 81 brackets that are thus far included, not one picked us a even a 13 seed. Beat Creighton, I suspect some might start to change.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
I was expecting someone to post about bracketmatrix. While I'm a fan of the site, you and I both know that it would be the last place a team with MU's trajectory would start showing up on. It uses old data (often a week old) and bases all of their data based off who is actually IN people's brackets. Pretty much everyone is in consensus right now that we are not in anyone's bracket, but are maybe close (within 8-10 teams). On bracketmatrix, you don't get any votes for that. I agree that if MU beats Creighton and Depaul, votes will start popping out... it will take a few days for the old brackets to drop off the matrix though.
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Bubble action from February 18th. Bubble team is bold. Admittedly I'm reaching for some of these.
Villanova @ Providence
Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Wake Forest @ Maryland (bubble, kinda?)
NC State @ Clemson (both, Clemson probably is a bit closer)
George Washington @ Richmond
Butler @ St John's
Georgia @ Tennesee
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Not much bubble action tonight.
UNC beats FSU in Tallahassee
After late game heroics, OkSt falls to Baylor on the road
In other news, former Marquette cupcakes Southern and Grambling State both won today.
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Not much bubble action tonight.
UNC beats FSU in Tallahassee
After late game heroics, OkSt falls to Baylor on the road
In other news, former Marquette cupcakes Southern and Grambling State both won today.
Grambling on a role....no longer 348 out of 349....now rising with a bullet at 347
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Not much bubble action tonight.
UNC beats FSU in Tallahassee
After late game heroics, OkSt falls to Baylor on the road
In other news, former Marquette cupcakes Southern and Grambling State both won today.
Oh boy, those two wins must really improve our RPI.
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Oh boy, those two wins must really improve our RPI.
Southern is currently dominating their conference again if they make it to the tournament every little bit helps us. Even if if it's beating a mid-low major tournament team it's still a tournament team.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/sc-ncaa-tournament-bubble-ryan-spt-0218-20140218,0,5517431.story
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2014/02/17/bubble-tracker-nebraska-highlights-big-tens-on-the-fence-teams/5551975/
I really respect the USA Today piece that has Oklahoma State as "In" with 10 lossess including 7 straight with a 4-9 conference record. Good grief. I would have them out at this point given their conference record.
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Oh boy, those two wins must really improve our RPI.
Actually, Marquette's RPI jumped from 78 to 73 this morning.
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Actually, Marquette's RPI jumped from 78 to 73 this morning.
That RPI is ugly, ugly. A win over Creighton would immediately remedy that.
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I really respect the USA Today piece that has Oklahoma State as "In" with 10 lossess including 7 straight with a 4-9 conference record. Good grief. I would have them out at this point given their conference record.
Ok St will push the limit for conference record for an at large. The huge variable here is Smart's suspension (even though they were falling apart before) which the committee will have to consider. Ford might be feeling that seat heat up a little with a trip to the NIT and then....Buzz to Ok St?
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Actually, Marquette's RPI jumped from 78 to 73 this morning.
If that is the case, we should all be shouting for the rest of the year:
GO SOUTHERN
GO GRAMBLING
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That RPI is ugly, ugly. A win over Creighton would immediately remedy that.
Unfortunately, it doesn't remedy it that much.
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Unfortunately, it doesn't remedy it that much.
True, but combined with a win at DePaul and they're up to ~57.
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I really respect the USA Today piece that has Oklahoma State as "In" with 10 lossess including 7 straight with a 4-9 conference record. Good grief. I would have them out at this point given their conference record.
What OSU has going for them are good wins, no bad losses, and a lot of very close losses in the top 50. Their conference record is hurting them right now, no doubt, but they also play in the toughest conference in the country which is why their power rating numbers are decent. 31 in Ken Pom. 50 in RPI. 26 in Sagarin.
Ken Pom and Sagarin care about margin of victory \ loss
Losing to Kansas by 2, Memphis by 5, Iowa State by 1, Oklahoma by 3, K-State by 3, Baylor last night in OT, etc...it tends to keep your rating high. Wins over Memphis (played them twice this year), Texas, Colorado, West Virginia, etc have helped as well. For them to get in, they are going to have to close that conference gap quickly. They have some big games coming up and Smart is back, so it will be interesting to see how they fair.
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What OSU has going for them are good wins, no bad losses, and a lot of very close losses in the top 50. Their conference record is hurting them right now, no doubt, but they also play in the toughest conference in the country which is why their power rating numbers are decent. 31 in Ken Pom. 50 in RPI. 26 in Sagarin.
Ken Pom and Sagarin care about margin of victory \ loss
Losing to Kansas by 2, Memphis by 5, Iowa State by 1, Oklahoma by 3, K-State by 3, Baylor last night in OT, etc...it tends to keep your rating high. Wins over Memphis (played them twice this year), Texas, Colorado, West Virginia, etc have helped as well. For them to get in, they are going to have to close that conference gap quickly. They have some big games coming up and Smart is back, so it will be interesting to see how they fair.
Good points. I just can't look past that 4-9 conference record though the committee probably could if the season ended today, but that doesn't mean they're not on the bubble as of today.
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Updated Bubble Watch. Still no MU mention.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Big East Conference
Work left to do: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's
This has almost nothing to do with Bubble Watch, but it concerns the two locked-in Big East teams, so in it goes: In two games, Creighton scored 1.50 points per possession against Villanova. In every other Big East game, the Wildcats have allowed just .97 points per trip. Creighton is Villanova's defensive kryptonite. Creightonite? Let's move on.
Xavier [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 50, SOS: 72] Tennessee's ongoing struggles are no help to Xavier. On Nov. 12, that looked like a great win. A couple of months later, it still looked like it might help the Musketeers lock down a tournament bid. Now, its ceiling is "win over another bubble team," which, gee, thanks, UT. The Musketeers have a lot of potential help on the way: Road wins at Georgetown and St. John's Feb. 22 and 25 would be nice, and then home games against Creighton (March 1) and Villanova (March 6) sandwich a road trip to Seton Hall.
Georgetown [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 59, SOS: 30] Remember that whole John Thompson III Gladiator quote from Friday's edition? And how the Hoyas were suddenly playing well, and embarking on a revenge tour? All of that? Nevermind. Georgetown got drilled at St. John's Sunday night 82-60, and, while the bubble is more than soft enough to keep them around, a team with neutral-court wins over K-State, VCU and Michigan State shouldn't be reduced to this.
Providence [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 80] Providence beat DePaul at basketball Saturday, and, instead of making another mean joke about how terrible DePaul is at basketball, let's note that the Friars also own a win over Creighton (albeit at home) and could really use a home win over Villanova on Tuesday night to distinguish their otherwise "meh" profile.
St. John's [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 53, SOS: 41] What do we make of the Johnnies? Two weeks ago, we would have scoffed at the idea of Steve Lavin's team getting to the NCAA tournament, but in February, they're 5-0 in the following sequence: versus Marquette, at Providence, versus Creighton, at Seton Hall and versus Georgetown. As such, they have become a totally realistic bubble team. They're far from a guarantee, of course, but they've played themselves into serious discussion with one month to go.
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But we are mentioned in CBS's Bubble Watch (the very last team mentioned). Progress!
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch
Organized much differently that ESPN's. Listed under "Work Left To Do". SJU, GTown, and Prov listed under "On the Fence."
OUTLOOK
Marquette has won three in a row just to get on this page. They have a brutal schedule to finish the regular season, but that's good because this team needs quality wins.
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Updated Bubble Watch. Still no MU mention.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Big East Conference
Work left to do: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's
This has almost nothing to do with Bubble Watch, but it concerns the two locked-in Big East teams, so in it goes: In two games, Creighton scored 1.50 points per possession against Villanova. In every other Big East game, the Wildcats have allowed just .97 points per trip. Creighton is Villanova's defensive kryptonite. Creightonite? Let's move on.
Xavier [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 50, SOS: 72] Tennessee's ongoing struggles are no help to Xavier. On Nov. 12, that looked like a great win. A couple of months later, it still looked like it might help the Musketeers lock down a tournament bid. Now, its ceiling is "win over another bubble team," which, gee, thanks, UT. The Musketeers have a lot of potential help on the way: Road wins at Georgetown and St. John's Feb. 22 and 25 would be nice, and then home games against Creighton (March 1) and Villanova (March 6) sandwich a road trip to Seton Hall.
Georgetown [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 59, SOS: 30] Remember that whole John Thompson III Gladiator quote from Friday's edition? And how the Hoyas were suddenly playing well, and embarking on a revenge tour? All of that? Nevermind. Georgetown got drilled at St. John's Sunday night 82-60, and, while the bubble is more than soft enough to keep them around, a team with neutral-court wins over K-State, VCU and Michigan State shouldn't be reduced to this.
Providence [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 80] Providence beat DePaul at basketball Saturday, and, instead of making another mean joke about how terrible DePaul is at basketball, let's note that the Friars also own a win over Creighton (albeit at home) and could really use a home win over Villanova on Tuesday night to distinguish their otherwise "meh" profile.
St. John's [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 53, SOS: 41] What do we make of the Johnnies? Two weeks ago, we would have scoffed at the idea of Steve Lavin's team getting to the NCAA tournament, but in February, they're 5-0 in the following sequence: versus Marquette, at Providence, versus Creighton, at Seton Hall and versus Georgetown. As such, they have become a totally realistic bubble team. They're far from a guarantee, of course, but they've played themselves into serious discussion with one month to go.
Hopefully all the "other at-large contenders" win their respective conference tournaments
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Updated Bubble Watch. Still no MU mention.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Big East Conference
Work left to do: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's
This has almost nothing to do with Bubble Watch, but it concerns the two locked-in Big East teams, so in it goes: In two games, Creighton scored 1.50 points per possession against Villanova. In every other Big East game, the Wildcats have allowed just .97 points per trip. Creighton is Villanova's defensive kryptonite. Creightonite? Let's move on.
Xavier [17-8 (7-5), RPI: 50, SOS: 72] Tennessee's ongoing struggles are no help to Xavier. On Nov. 12, that looked like a great win. A couple of months later, it still looked like it might help the Musketeers lock down a tournament bid. Now, its ceiling is "win over another bubble team," which, gee, thanks, UT. The Musketeers have a lot of potential help on the way: Road wins at Georgetown and St. John's Feb. 22 and 25 would be nice, and then home games against Creighton (March 1) and Villanova (March 6) sandwich a road trip to Seton Hall.
Georgetown [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 59, SOS: 30] Remember that whole John Thompson III Gladiator quote from Friday's edition? And how the Hoyas were suddenly playing well, and embarking on a revenge tour? All of that? Nevermind. Georgetown got drilled at St. John's Sunday night 82-60, and, while the bubble is more than soft enough to keep them around, a team with neutral-court wins over K-State, VCU and Michigan State shouldn't be reduced to this.
Providence [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 80] Providence beat DePaul at basketball Saturday, and, instead of making another mean joke about how terrible DePaul is at basketball, let's note that the Friars also own a win over Creighton (albeit at home) and could really use a home win over Villanova on Tuesday night to distinguish their otherwise "meh" profile.
St. John's [17-9 (7-6), RPI: 53, SOS: 41] What do we make of the Johnnies? Two weeks ago, we would have scoffed at the idea of Steve Lavin's team getting to the NCAA tournament, but in February, they're 5-0 in the following sequence: versus Marquette, at Providence, versus Creighton, at Seton Hall and versus Georgetown. As such, they have become a totally realistic bubble team. They're far from a guarantee, of course, but they've played themselves into serious discussion with one month to go.
So why do so many here insist we are within the bubble?
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So why do so many here insist we are within the bubble?
Brennan just got lazy and didn't want to do one more write-up for a team in the Big East.
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Updated Bubble Watch. Still no MU mention.
Just doesn't make much sense. MU is in better position than several teams listed in Eammon Brennan's bubble watch. Maybe he needs to see the win tomorrow to be convinced. Bottom line is, this team is very much in the conversation, whether Eammon Brennan thinks so or not. Lunardi would certainly have MU in his list, and his opinion has more value. Win tomorrow, and we'll be on everyone's bubble list.
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Just doesn't make much sense. MU is in better position than several teams listed in Eammon Brennan's bubble watch. Maybe he needs to see the win tomorrow to be convinced. Bottom line is, this team is very much in the conversation, whether Eammon Brennan thinks so or not. Lunardi would certainly have MU in his list, and his opinion has more value. Win tomorrow, and we'll be on everyone's bubble list.
I don't really disagree with these guys, the bracketology guys look at it as if the season ended today, it's the only way to do it otherwise you're playing with endless hypotheticals. If MU wins tomorrow (and again on Saturday) the whole picture changes. Just look at how Nebraska launched itseld into the bubble picture with a win against MSU, before I didn't see them mentioned anywhere really.
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Brennan just got lazy and didn't want to do one more write-up for a team in the Big East.
Completely agree. He still kept LSU listed (lost twice last week)... they have a RPI 70 with two sub-100 losses (nearly three with Georgia). Their kenpom is #70 as well.
For writers like this, we need a marquee win like Creighton to get noticed.
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Bubble action from February 18th. Bubble team is bold. Admittedly I'm reaching for some of these.
Villanova @ Providence
Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Wake Forest @ Maryland (bubble, kinda?)
NC State @ Clemson (both, Clemson probably is a bit closer)
George Washington @ Richmond
Butler @ St John's
Georgia @ Tennesee
Ole Miss, Providence, Richmond suffer home losses. St John's up a few early in the second half on Butler. Good night for MU so far.
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Ole Miss, Providence, Richmond suffer home losses. St John's up a few early in the second half on Butler. Good night for MU so far.
Yep. Gotta take care of business tomorrow.
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I don't really disagree with these guys, the bracketology guys look at it as if the season ended today, it's the only way to do it otherwise you're playing with endless hypotheticals. If MU wins tomorrow (and again on Saturday) the whole picture changes. Just look at how Nebraska launched itseld into the bubble picture with a win against MSU, before I didn't see them mentioned anywhere really.
I'd normally agree, but the way the CBS and ESPN Bubble Watch work is a look ahead. Regardless I don't think its a big deal to have us in or out right now. Who cares? Still have to beat Creighton or pull off the Nova upset. Until one of those 2 things happens? Meh. We at least need the Creighton game to happen to legitimately dream, so why wouldn't they just wait once week. We'll know a lot more tomorrow night.
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Here is the bubble action tonight.
DePaul at Xavier (17-8, No. 43 RPI), 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Saint Joseph’s (17-7, No. 40 RPI) at Rhode Island, 7 p.m.
Evansville at Indiana State (20-6, No. 54 RPI)
Mississippi State at LSU (15-9, No. 73), 8 p.m. ESPN3
Vanderbilt at Missouri (18-7, RPI: 38)
LaSalle at Dayton (17-8, No. 61), 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Illinois at Minnesota (16-9, RPI: 32)
South Carolina at Arkansas (16-9, No. 74), 9 p.m. ESPN3
Washington at Oregon (16-8, No. 41), 9 p.m. ESPN2
UCLA at California (17-8, No. 44), 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network
Arizona State at Colorado (19-7, RPI: 26)
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Here is the bubble action tonight.
DePaul at Xavier (17-8, No. 43 RPI), 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Saint Joseph’s (17-7, No. 40 RPI) at Rhode Island, 7 p.m.
Evansville at Indiana State (20-6, No. 54 RPI)
Mississippi State at LSU (15-9, No. 73), 8 p.m. ESPN3
Vanderbilt at Missouri (18-7, RPI: 38)
LaSalle at Dayton (17-8, No. 61), 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Illinois at Minnesota (16-9, RPI: 32)
South Carolina at Arkansas (16-9, No. 74), 9 p.m. ESPN3
Washington at Oregon (16-8, No. 41), 9 p.m. ESPN2
UCLA at California (17-8, No. 44), 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network
Arizona State at Colorado (19-7, RPI: 26)
Could be a rough bubble night for us. I would pick the bubble team to win almost every single one of those games. But that means that any losses could really tank their chances.
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We're now in Sports Illustrated's Bubble Watch. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20140218/bubble-watch-potential-upsets-ncaa-tournament-delaware-mercer/
IN THE MIX
Marquette (15-10, RPI: 74, SOS: 70) -- The Golden Eagles remain a long shot to make the tournament, but they have to be considered in the mix after recent wins over Providence and Xavier. They have two wins against teams in the top 50 (Xavier and George Washington, and eight of their 10 losses are to top-50 teams. They still have plenty of opportunity to make a case with games against Creighton, Georgetown, Villanova and Providence remaining.
*Side note: I miss Glockner
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Could be a rough bubble night for us. I would pick the bubble team to win almost every single one of those games. But that means that any losses could really tank their chances.
Meh, we win, it will have been a glorious bubble night. We immediately hop at least 6-8 teams, probably more, directly in front of us.
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Meh, we win, it will have been a glorious bubble night. We immediately hop at least 6-8 teams, probably more, directly in front of us.
I was just going to post the same... If MU wins, it will be a huge bubble day no doubt, as many of the bubble teams will still lose tonight. At least a few of them that are "expected to win" will likely lose which is only more damaging to their resume.
This logic is what I've been saying since after the first crappy Butler game, when people said we were finished...
1) Bubble teams by definition are hit-or-miss...
2) There are many bubble teams...
3) Thus by the attrition (of bubble teams losing) and MU winning late-season games, a team like MU can make huge jumps in a relatively quick time-frame.
The hardest part is winning games like tonight. Let's hope MU can do it.
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I was just going to post the same... If MU wins, it will be a huge bubble day no doubt, as many of the bubble teams will still lose tonight. At least a few of them that are "expected to win" will likely lose which is only more damaging to their resume.
This logic is what I've been saying since after the first crappy Butler game, when people said we were finished...
1) Bubble teams by definition are hit-or-miss...
2) There are many bubble teams...
3) Thus by the attrition (of bubble teams losing) and MU winning late-season games, a team like MU can make huge jumps in a relatively quick time-frame.
The hardest part is winning games like tonight. Let's hope MU can do it.
All fine and good, but I don't think we are on the bubble yet.
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Here is the bubble action tonight.
DePaul at Xavier (17-8, No. 43 RPI), 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Saint Joseph’s (17-7, No. 40 RPI) at Rhode Island, 7 p.m.
Evansville at Indiana State (20-6, No. 54 RPI)
Mississippi State at LSU (15-9, No. 73), 8 p.m. ESPN3
Vanderbilt at Missouri (18-7, RPI: 38)
LaSalle at Dayton (17-8, No. 61), 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Illinois at Minnesota (16-9, RPI: 32)
South Carolina at Arkansas (16-9, No. 74), 9 p.m. ESPN3
Washington at Oregon (16-8, No. 41), 9 p.m. ESPN2
UCLA at California (17-8, No. 44), 10:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network
Arizona State at Colorado (19-7, RPI: 26)
A day late because I was bummed after the Creighton game. But I still have faith. Bubble is soft and 4-1 should still suffice.
Xavier demolished Depaul.
St. Joe's squeaks by Rhode Island
Indiana State squeaks by Evansville
LSU beats Mississippi State
Mizzou barely beats Vandy at home
Dayton cruises past La Salle
Minnesota gets demolished by a lesser Illinois team at home
Arkansas beats South Carolina
Oregon beats Washington
UCLA destroys Cal
Colorado over Arizona State
Basically, Marquette, Cal, and Minnesota were bracket losers. Every other bubble team took care of business.
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Bubble results from tonight:
Louisiana Tech may have had their bubble burst by a sub par ECU
Nebraska beats the Penn State fighting DJ Newbills
Southern Miss demolishes an awful UTSA team
UWGB (probably a stretch) handles Valpo at home
Seton Hall embarrasses Georgetown
Toledo squeaks by Bowling Green on the road.
BYU upsets Gonzaga for a signature win
Stanford crushes USC
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Can someone post the RPI predictor website that you can input results to see what the RPI would be? I can't seem to locate it.
Thanks in advance.
FOUND IT. NEVERMIND.
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A day late because I was bummed after the Creighton game. But I still have faith. Bubble is soft and 4-1 should still suffice.
Xavier demolished Depaul.
St. Joe's squeaks by Rhode Island
Indiana State squeaks by Evansville
LSU beats Mississippi State
Mizzou barely beats Vandy at home
Dayton cruises past La Salle
Minnesota gets demolished by a lesser Illinois team at home
Arkansas beats South Carolina
Oregon beats Washington
UCLA destroys Cal
Colorado over Arizona State
Basically, Marquette, Cal, and Minnesota were bracket losers. Every other bubble team took care of business.
Good analysis until the bolded part. For some reason, you are assuming we are on the bubble. Marquette is not a bubble team and hasn't been one this year.
We still need 5-0 or 4-1 and at least 2 BET wins.
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Good analysis until the bolded part. For some reason, you are assuming we are on the bubble. Marquette is not a bubble team and hasn't been one this year.
We still need 5-0 or 4-1 and at least 2 BET wins.
4-1 and at least 2 BET wins is squarely in the tourney. No way are we "on the bubble" if we go 6-2 in our last 8.
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Good analysis until the bolded part. For some reason, you are assuming we are on the bubble. Marquette is not a bubble team and hasn't been one this year.
We still need 5-0 or 4-1 and at least 2 BET wins.
Dude, you're clueless. Do you follow any CBB outside of MU? If the tourney started today, would MU be in? Absolutely not. But they are in the bubble conversation. Yes, a 4-1 finish and a win or two in the BET is probably necessary to actually GET IN, but they are in the bubble conversation, and will be until they lose 3 more regular season games. The difference between the last 8 teams in and the first 8 teams out is going to be astronomically small. I don't particularly like our chances due to our OOC performance and lack of a big win, but the bottom line is that the other teams we'll be competing against for those spots have equally as unimpressive resumes. Many have MUCH MUCH worse losses than we do. Many played much easier schedules, it just so happens that our cupcakes turned out to be very bad for our RPI. The committee is not clueless and will take this into account.
If you don't like the bubble talk, or think MU is way further away from the tournament than they actually are, that is fine - you're certainly entitled your opinion. Things definitely need to go MU's way in the next 30 days for our streak of consecutive berths to continue, but it's not like the BET is their only path to a berth. Until it is (3 more regular season losses), MU will continue to be in the coversat ion.
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Dude, you're clueless. Do you follow any CBB outside of MU? If the tourney started today, would MU be in? Absolutely not. But they are in the bubble conversation. Yes, a 4-1 finish and a win or two in the BET is probably necessary to actually GET IN, but they are in the bubble conversation, and will be until they lose 3 more regular season games. The difference between the last 8 teams in and the first 8 teams out is going to be astronomically small. I don't particularly like our chances due to our OOC performance and lack of a big win, but the bottom line is that the other teams we'll be competing against for those spots have equally as unimpressive resumes. Many have MUCH MUCH worse losses than we do. Many played much easier schedules, it just so happens that our cupcakes turned out to be very bad for our RPI. The committee is not clueless and will take this into account.
If you don't like the bubble talk, or think MU is way further away from the tournament than they actually are, that is fine - you're certainly entitled your opinion. Things definitely need to go MU's way in the next 30 days for our streak of consecutive berths to continue, but it's not like the BET is their only path to a berth. Until it is (3 more regular season losses), MU will continue to be in the coversat ion.
I'd love to know what your definition of "the bubble" is. We are not one of the first 4 teams out of the brackets. We are not one of the next 4 teams out. We may or may not be in the next group of 4 - but that is certainly not on the bubble
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I'd love to know what your definition of "the bubble" is. We are not one of the first 4 teams out of the brackets. We are not one of the next 4 teams out. We may or may not be in the next group of 4 - but that is certainly not on the bubble
My definition of the bubble is every team that still has a (somewhat) realistic chance of making the tournament. I would definite that as the last 6-8 at large qualifiers, and the next 15-18 or so teams fighting for a bid. Obviously, every day we inch closer to the tournament, the bubble gets a little smaller. Right now, MU is definitely in that group of teams that are currently outside of the field and fighting for their tournament lives.
Right now I would say the following teams are on "The Bubble":
Cal
SMU
Missouri
Minnesota
St. Johns
St. Joe’s
BYU
Providence
Georgetown
West Virginia
Richmond
Baylor
OK State
Oregon
Dayton
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Nebraska
Indiana State
Florida State
NC State
Arkansas
Clemson
Ole Miss
Marquette
Boise State
That is 26 teams that still have legitimate chance at an at-large bid. Obviously only about 1/3 of them will make it. But this changes every single day, and a whole lot in a week. Fortunately, many of these teams will lose several times before the end of the season, hence why the bubble is soft, and MU still has chance.
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My definition of the bubble is every team that still has a (somewhat) realistic chance of making the tournament. I would definite that as the last 6-8 at large qualifiers, and the next 15-18 or so teams fighting for a bid. Obviously, every day we inch closer to the tournament, the bubble gets a little smaller. Right now, MU is definitely in that group of teams that are currently outside of the field and fighting for their tournament lives.
Right now I would say the following teams are on "The Bubble":
Cal
SMU
Missouri
Minnesota
St. Johns
St. Joe’s
BYU
Providence
Georgetown
West Virginia
Richmond
Baylor
OK State
Oregon
Dayton
Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
Nebraska
Indiana State
Florida State
NC State
Arkansas
Clemson
Ole Miss
Marquette
Boise State
That is 26 teams that still have legitimate chance at an at-large bid. Obviously only about 1/3 of them will make it. But this changes every single day, and a whole lot in a week. Fortunately, many of these teams will lose several times before the end of the season, hence why the bubble is soft, and MU still has chance.
And I agree MU has a chance. We have to get in a position to get chosen, which means moving up at least 10 places from where we are now and then we have to hold that spot. And we can't do those things losing 2 more regular season games - There are not enough games left. Winning the next 3 may get us to the "first 4 out", but then losing a game would drop us right back out.
I see our only way in is to win the BET since I don't think we can go undefeated the rest of the way. Then we need someone else to upset Creighton in the tournament and we would then have a real chance.
You obviously disagree, but we'll see what happens.
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And I agree MU has a chance. We have to get in a position to get chosen, which means moving up at least 10 places from where we are now and then we have to hold that spot. And we can't do those things losing 2 more regular season games - There are not enough games left. Winning the next 3 may get us to the "first 4 out", but then losing a game would drop us right back out.
I see our only way in is to win the BET since I don't think we can go undefeated the rest of the way. Then we need someone else to upset Creighton in the tournament and we would then have a real chance.
You obviously disagree, but we'll see what happens.
I don't really disagree w what you just said. Seems fair. It will certainly be an uphill battle. But a 4-1 finish would mean sweeps of fellow bubble teams Gtown and Prov, and a split with other tourney teams Xavier and STJ. Considering we haven't lost to any bad teams (the Butler loss hurts but compared to the other bubble teams a road loss to them is not that damning) the committee will have hard time leaving that team out and putting Providence or Gtown in. 4-1 is a likely third place finish. Anything less than that and you're probably right, a BET championship is the only way.
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I'd love to know what your definition of "the bubble" is. We are not one of the first 4 teams out of the brackets. We are not one of the next 4 teams out. We may or may not be in the next group of 4 - but that is certainly not on the bubble
Better question, who gives a rat's ass? Does being "on the bubble" on February 21st mean something? Marquette will make the tournament if they make the tournament.
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The only chance we have is if we get Dawson and JJJ some run before the BE tourney.
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I wish we had Keifer Sykes ;D
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The only chance we have is if we get Dawson and JJJ some run before the BE tourney.
We've played better the last four games. You may have noticed that the two you mentioned sat for most of those games. Now correlation does not equal causation, but why mess with something that is working?
Only bubble action tonight was Harvard knocking off conference rival Pennsylvania.
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For all those #bubblelife lovers, you'll have plenty to watch tomorrow
We obviously need to start with Marquette at Depaul (1 PM, CBSSN)
And I'll give the 2nd nod to the Aggies hosting Tennessee (2 PM, ESPNU)
The rest:
Xavier at Georgetown (10:30 AM, FS1)
Florida at Ole Miss (11 AM, CBS)
Clemson at Georgia Tech (11 AM, ESPN3)
Indiana State at Missouri State (12 PM, ESPNU)
Saint John's at Villanova (12:30 PM, FS1)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Baylor at West Virginia (12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Middle Tennessee at Marshall (2 PM, Regional)
NC State at Virginia Tech (1 PM, ESPN 3)
Dayton at Duquesne (1 PM, Regional)
Fordham at Saint Joseph's (1 PM, Regional)
LSU at Kentucky (3 PM, ESPN)
La Salle at Richmond (3 PM, CBSSN)
Arkansas at Mississippi State (3 PM, ESPN3)
UCLA at Stanford (5 PM, ESPN2)
Minnesota at Ohio State (5 PM, BTN)
UTEP at Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion
Northwestern St. atStephen F. Austin (6 PM, Regional)
George Washington at Saint Louis (7 PM, Regional)
Harbard at Princeton (7 PM, ESPN3)
Missouri at Alabama (7 PM, ESPN2)
UNLV atBoise State (7:05 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Northwestern (7:15 PM, BTN)
Arizona at Colorado (8 PM, ESPN)
Portland at BYU (8 PM, Regional)
Lots going on tomorrow. Lot of bubble teams on the road. They could fall for some...dare I call them?...trap games.
Honestly, the Warriors aren't going to help themselves tomorrow. A win over a Melvin-less Depaul is nothing to write home about. However, if they do lose, it will officially put the bullet in this lame horse of a season...until the BET tourney run of course :D
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Honestly, the Warriors aren't going to help themselves tomorrow. A win over a Melvin-less Depaul is nothing to write home about. However, if they do lose, it will officially put the bullet in this lame horse of a season...until the BET tourney run of course :D
Actually, the only team that I don't think we can beat is Creighton. If someone else can upset them, maybe....
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24452407/poppin-bubbles-stanford-notches-marquee-win-over-ucla
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http://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2014/2/23/5417408/college-basketball-recap-duke-syracuse-louisville-cincinnati
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We've played better the last four games. You may have noticed that the two you mentioned sat for most of those games. Now correlation does not equal causation, but why mess with something that is working?
Only bubble action tonight was Harvard knocking off conference rival Pennsylvania.
While I don't think his statement was correct
Let's keep in mind 3 of our last 4 wins were against the only 3 teams no where near the bubble.
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But what did George Washington do? Or should we start a separate thread since it appears so many think their pivotal to our NCAA chances?
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Latest from Lunardi:
FIRST OUT: Minn, Rich, Day, Gtown. NEXT OUT: Ore, SoMiss, Neb, Lsu. FOUR MORE: Wvu, Clem, Marq, LaTech.
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Latest from Lunardi:
FIRST OUT: Minn, Rich, Day, Gtown. NEXT OUT: Ore, SoMiss, Neb, Lsu. FOUR MORE: Wvu, Clem, Marq, LaTech.
Link?
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Link?
It was a tweet. Goggle joe Lunardi twitter and boom!
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Link?
https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/437605560146354177
For all of the arguing about whether or not we are on the bubble or not, does 11 teams away count?
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https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/437605560146354177
For all of the arguing about whether or not we are on the bubble or not, does 11 teams away count?
That's a LOT of climbing. Not impossible, but a lot. That also doesn't even factor in an upset in the conference tournaments, which there is almost always a few that steals a bid or two.
Or let's view it on how we have viewed things the last week or so when as a collective we've said things like X "barely beat" Y so that could hurt them. Wouldn't the same apply to us yesterday?
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https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/437605560146354177
For all of the arguing about whether or not we are on the bubble or not, does 11 teams away count?
Look at the schedules of the teams in front of MU on that list. There are a whole lot of losses there.
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(http://i.imgur.com/x1ZuIwv.png)
Image above was posted during the Creighton-Seton Hall game. They don't seem to think MU is in the discussion.
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(http://i.imgur.com/x1ZuIwv.png)
Image above was posted during the Creighton-Seton Hall game. They don't seem to think MU is in the discussion.
Notice they are using the RPI....there's a reason for that.
At the end of the day, seems to me we're going to have two high seeds and either 1, 2, or 3 teams that are seeded around 9th through 13th. SJU if they keep playing well could end up north of a 9, but a lot of hanging on for dear life with the others....including MU if we get in.
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Basically if we would have won one of our tough NC games we are right in the discussion
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(http://i.imgur.com/x1ZuIwv.png)
Image above was posted during the Creighton-Seton Hall game. They don't seem to think MU is in the discussion.
We aren't - unless we win the next four, which would still probably leave us on the "first four out" list. But first, we need to make it onto the bubble and that is at least 3 wins and probably 4 wins away.
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We beat Georgetown and Providence we remove them from the equation. No way they get picked ahead of us, when we finish above them in Big East standings and sweep the series with them. I think 4 teams go from Big East. The top three finishers and the winner of the 4 vs 5 Big East tournament game.
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Basically if we would have won one of our tough NC games we are right in the discussion
Yep, we add a good win and our expected finish is ~13 spots better in the RPI if we had beaten ASU, ~15 if SDSU, two good wins and ~25 spots if both.
Not sure if it's accurate, but it shows that if we go 3-1 with the loss to Villanova we finish 19-12 with an RPI of 56 and SOS of 47. If we substituted Grambling for a non-RPI Division 2 team we're 18-12 with an RPI of 49 and SOS of 25.
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We beat Georgetown and Providence we remove them from the equation. No way they get picked ahead of us, when we finish above them in Big East standings and sweep the series with them. I think 4 teams go from Big East. The top three finishers and the winner of the 4 vs 5 Big East tournament game.
Agree with bolded....no way GTown, Providence should get in ahead of MU if we sweep the season series with both....even if their RPI is better...think tourney committee would be hard pressed to justify putting GTown and Providence in before us if we sweep them both.
Think Big East is a lock for 3 teams, and a virtual lock for 4. Obviously Nova, Creighton, and St. John's are the 3 locks...unless St. John's goes on a 4 game losing streak. We HAVE to beat GTown and Providence if we have any hope of getting in...other than by virtue of winning Big East tourney.
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Agree with bolded....no way GTown, Providence should get in ahead of MU if we sweep the season series with both....even if their RPI is better...think tourney committee would be hard pressed to justify putting GTown and Providence in before us if we sweep them both.
Think Big East is a lock for 3 teams, and a virtual lock for 4. Obviously Nova, Creighton, and St. John's are the 3 locks...unless St. John's goes on a 4 game losing streak. We HAVE to beat GTown and Providence if we have any hope of getting in...other than by virtue of winning Big East tourney.
Its happened before. The reason is simple, rarely does it come down perfectly to just two teams and they decide, well MU beat Georgetown twice so they go ahead of them. To many other factors which is why it typically doesn't happen.
Not saying I don't agree with your logic, I do. Just pointing out that it just typically doesn't come down to teams in the discussion that allows for that kind of comparison. Interestingly enough, if G'Town lost to MU, beat Creighton at home and lost to Villanova they would finish roughly with a 57 RPI and a SOS of 13. If MU were to beat G'Town, lose to Villanova, beat Providence and beat St. John's. A RPI of 56 and a SOS 47.
Nebraska is winning big right now. Hard not to see them going 2-2 or even 3-1 down the stretch here.
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For all those #bubblelife lovers, you'll have plenty to watch tomorrow
We obviously need to start with Marquette at Depaul (1 PM, CBSSN)
And I'll give the 2nd nod to the Aggies hosting Tennessee (2 PM, ESPNU)
The rest:
Xavier at Georgetown (10:30 AM, FS1)
Florida at Ole Miss (11 AM, CBS)
Clemson at Georgia Tech (11 AM, ESPN3)
Indiana State at Missouri State (12 PM, ESPNU)
Saint John's at Villanova (12:30 PM, FS1)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Baylor at West Virginia (12:30 PM, ESPN3)
Middle Tennessee at Marshall (2 PM, Regional)
NC State at Virginia Tech (1 PM, ESPN 3)
Dayton at Duquesne (1 PM, Regional)
Fordham at Saint Joseph's (1 PM, Regional)
LSU at Kentucky (3 PM, ESPN)
La Salle at Richmond (3 PM, CBSSN)
Arkansas at Mississippi State (3 PM, ESPN3)
UCLA at Stanford (5 PM, ESPN2)
Minnesota at Ohio State (5 PM, BTN)
UTEP at Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion
Northwestern St. atStephen F. Austin (6 PM, Regional)
George Washington at Saint Louis (7 PM, Regional)
Harbard at Princeton (7 PM, ESPN3)
Missouri at Alabama (7 PM, ESPN2)
UNLV atBoise State (7:05 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Northwestern (7:15 PM, BTN)
Arizona at Colorado (8 PM, ESPN)
Portland at BYU (8 PM, Regional)
Results from Saturday for those too lazy to check themselves.
Marquette of course squeaked by Depaul.
TAMU beat Tennessee in OT (y'all welcome)
Xavier got crushed by Georgetown
Ole Miss just missed the chance for a marquee win against Florida
Clemson beat Georgia Tech on the road
Indiana State fell to Missouri State in classic trap game fashion
Saint John's just missed beating Nova (Obekpa is back for SJU)
Oklahoma State got revenge on Texas Tech (and got Smart back)
Baylor beat West Virginia in a battle of bubble teams
Middle Tennessee barely escapes Marshall
NC State beats Virginia Tech
Dayton barely wins at Duguqesne
Fordham fell to St. Joseph's
LSU got to OT but couldn't put away Kentcuky
La Salle was destroyed by Richmond
Arkansas squeaks by Mississippi State
Stanford may have removed all doubt by upsetting UCLA
Minnesota got trounced by Ohio State
UTEP gets handled by Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech gets past Old Dominion on the road
SF Austin barely beats Northwestern State
George Washington got beat by BEast hopeful Saint Louis
Harvard handles Princeton
Mizzou drops a game to a real bad Alabama team
UNLV can't put away Boise State in OT
Indiana beats Northwestern
Arizona beats Colorado handily
Portland is bested by BYU
Major bubble winners: Georgetown (beat fellow bubble team Xavier), Baylor (beat fellow bubble team West Virginia), Stanford (beat UCLA, probably making them a lock)
Bubble losers: Xavier, Ole Miss, Saint John's, West Virginia, LSU, Minnesota, George Washington, Colorado
Major bubble losers: Tennessee (as much as I love the Aggies, losing to them is not acceptable), Indiana State (lost to a real bad Missouri State team), Mizzou (lost to an awful Bama team)
11 out of the 29 bubble teams in action yesterday lost. Good news for the Warriors
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Only 26 D1 games going on tonight, but lots of bubble action!
SMU upsets UCONN on the road, probably making them a lock
Purdue gets destroyed by Nebraska
Providence survives a late surge by Butler
Ball State gets beat Toledo
Arizona State gets embarrassed by Utah
USC is handled by California
Washington state is beat soundly byOregon
Arizona State is the only bubble loser, but they are probably still inside the field of 68.
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Only one bubble game on Monday night
Oklahoma State travels to Big 12 bottom dweller (0-14 conference record) TCU (6 PM, ESPNU)
If TCU does find some way to upset the Cowboys (they did beat Kansas last season), that would almost assuredly kill their NCAA chances.
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Only one bubble game on Monday night
Oklahoma State travels to Big 12 bottom dweller (0-14 conference record) TCU (6 PM, ESPNU)
If TCU does find some way to upset the Cowboys (they did beat Kansas last season), that would almost assuredly kill their NCAA chances.
As expected, OkSt handled TCU.
A couple of key bubble games tonight, a couple in which two bubble teams are playing each other:
Iowa at Minnesota (6 PM, BTN)
Clemson at Wake Forest (6 PM, ESPN3)
Xavier at Saint John's (6 PM, FS1)
Dayton at Saint Joseph's (6 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Wisconsin (8 PM, ESPN)
Missouri at Georgia (8 PM, ESPNU)
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As expected, OkSt handled TCU.
A couple of key bubble games tonight, a couple in which two bubble teams are playing each other:
Iowa at Minnesota (6 PM, BTN)
Clemson at Wake Forest (6 PM, ESPN3)
Xavier at Saint John's (6 PM, FS1)
Dayton at Saint Joseph's (6 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Wisconsin (8 PM, ESPN)
Missouri at Georgia (8 PM, ESPNU)
Nice that you do this TAMU...thanks.
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Indiana is a CIT bubble team maybe.
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Indiana is a CIT bubble team maybe.
Right now they are in the NIT bracket with Marquette.
http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
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As expected, OkSt handled TCU.
A couple of key bubble games tonight, a couple in which two bubble teams are playing each other:
Iowa at Minnesota (6 PM, BTN)
Clemson at Wake Forest (6 PM, ESPN3)
Xavier at Saint John's (6 PM, FS1)
Dayton at Saint Joseph's (6 PM, CBSSN)
Indiana at Wisconsin (8 PM, ESPN)
Missouri at Georgia (8 PM, ESPNU)
Minnesota defends their home turf from the Hawkeyes
Clemson suffers a significant setback against a sub par Wake Forest team
Xavier wins on the road at fellow bubble team St. John's
Dayton gets demolished by fellow bubble team St. Joe's
Indiana misses their chance for a marquee win at Bucky
Missouri may have had their bubble burst by losing by 15 to an average at best Georgia squad
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This year is strange. There are 7 A10 teams in discussion for the Dance, largely due to the problems with the RPI. If we compare leagues right now the Big East holds a 8-2 record in head to head competition against the A10.
Big East should get 5 teams based on actual quality. Given that we continue to beat up on each other I don't think it happens though.
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It's not just defense that's putting us in peril, it's the lack of offense.
That's why we're going to be an NIT team.
These are NOT the numbers of an NCAA team from a high major conference.
Offense (Rank)
Points: 72.0 (156)
Rebounds: 12.0 (95)
Assists: 14.5 (60)
FG%: 44.7% (148)
FT%: 69.1% (197)
3P%: 30.5% (325)
Defense (Rank)
Points: 67.1 (93)
Rebounds: 24.3 (144)
Assists: 13.8 (275)
FG%: 41.9% (97)
FT%: 65.6% (19)
3P%: 36.3% (271)
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Plenty of bubble team action tonight!
Richmond at George Mason (6 PM, Regional)
Texas A&M at LSU (7 PM, ESPN3)
West Virginia at Iowa State (7 PM, ESPN3)
North Carolina at North Carolina State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Alabama at Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN3)
Tennessee at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Toledo at Northern Illinois (7 PM, Regional)
Indiana State at Illinois State (7:05 PM, Regional)
California at Arizona (8 PM, ESPN2)
Baylor at Texas (8 PM, ESPNU)
Boise State at Fresno State (8 PM, CBSSN)
Nebraska at Illinois (8 PM, BTN)
Stanford at Arizona State (10 PM, ESPNU)
I see a lot of tough road games for the bubble tonight. I smell a lot of losses.
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Right now they are in the NIT bracket with Marquette.
http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
What if Marquette faces Indiana in the NIT???!!!! :o
The board would make a prison fight look like a Disney picnic... :D
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Plenty of bubble team action tonight!
Richmond at George Mason (6 PM, Regional)
Texas A&M at LSU (7 PM, ESPN3)
West Virginia at Iowa State (7 PM, ESPN3)
North Carolina at North Carolina State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Alabama at Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN3)
Tennessee at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Toledo at Northern Illinois (7 PM, Regional)
Indiana State at Illinois State (7:05 PM, Regional)
California at Arizona (8 PM, ESPN2)
Baylor at Texas (8 PM, ESPNU)
Boise State at Fresno State (8 PM, CBSSN)
Nebraska at Illinois (8 PM, BTN)
Stanford at Arizona State (10 PM, ESPNU)
I see a lot of tough road games for the bubble tonight. I smell a lot of losses.
Illinois schools can do us a solid tonight.
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What if Marquette faces Indiana in the NIT???!!!! :o
The board would make a prison fight look like a Disney picnic... :D
Sportscenter Y2K
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TAMU, I know your feelings on this matter are similar to mine, mainly because the two of us have actually followed the teams close to the bubble rather than just saying MU SUX!, NIT BOUND!, etc, etc.
But the bottom line is, the bubble is oh so very soft. Just last night Clemson, St. Johns, Dayton, and Missouri all went down in a night where not a ton of basketball was played. All of thsoe teams were directly in front of MU.
Obviously MU has to take care of their own business, but if they do, they'll be in solid shape headed into the BE Tournament. Even at 2-2, not all hope is lost. I have a feeling there will be at least 5 dancing with 13 or more losses.
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TAMU, I know your feelings on this matter are similar to mine, mainly because the two of us have actually followed the teams close to the bubble rather than just saying MU SUX!, NIT BOUND!, etc, etc.
But the bottom line is, the bubble is oh so very soft. Just last night Clemson, St. Johns, Dayton, and Missouri all went down in a night where not a ton of basketball was played. All of thsoe teams were directly in front of MU.
Obviously MU has to take care of their own business, but if they do, they'll be in solid shape headed into the BE Tournament. Even at 2-2, not all hope is lost. I have a feeling there will be at least 5 dancing with 13 or more losses.
Yep. All 68 lines must be filled.
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TAMU, I know your feelings on this matter are similar to mine, mainly because the two of us have actually followed the teams close to the bubble rather than just saying MU SUX!, NIT BOUND!, etc, etc.
But the bottom line is, the bubble is oh so very soft. Just last night Clemson, St. Johns, Dayton, and Missouri all went down in a night where not a ton of basketball was played. All of thsoe teams were directly in front of MU.
Obviously MU has to take care of their own business, but if they do, they'll be in solid shape headed into the BE Tournament. Even at 2-2, not all hope is lost. I have a feeling there will be at least 5 dancing with 13 or more losses.
What are the SOS and RPI of the teams you think get in with 13 or more losses? IMO, those two criteria do not help Marquette. We go 2-2 then MU better get to BE final. Otherwise, maybe TC returns to the Bradley Center.
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Does the NCAA commitee even use the RPI. I think they look more at your record against the top 25, top 50, etc. Why should one team get picked over another team, because they played a couple teams ranked 275 vs a couple of teams ranked 325. MU's probelm is not having enough quality wins. MU's schedule was strong enough, so I do not buy the arguement our schedule is weak. It is the lack of results that is the problem.
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What are the SOS and RPI of the teams you think get in with 13 or more losses? IMO, those two criteria do not help Marquette. We go 2-2 then MU better get to BE final. Otherwise, maybe TC returns to the Bradley Center.
The committee uses RPI and SOS, but they also know how those systems can be gamed. According to ESPN, Marquette is currently 73rd in RPI and 72nd in SOS. Marquette's non-conference SOS was 171. Does anyone with any kind of knowledge actually think Marquette played the 171st toughest OOC schedule in the country? No f'ing way. Marquette has played 14 teams in the top 100 in the RPI. Marquette did not lose a non-conference game to a team with an RPI above 32. They did beat a team with an RPI of 28. Marquette's losses are to teams with the following RPI's: 4,5,7,7,18,21,22,32,51,63 and 146. That Butler loss looks worse and worse every day, but every single team on the Bubble has a bad loss, many of them multiple bad losses to worse teams, and not on the road.
What is killing MU’s RPI and SOS is Grambling State (349), New Hampshire (337), IUPUI (314), Ball State (301) and Samford (309). If those games were replaced with teams that had an RPI in the 150-250 range, MU’s RPI and SOS numbers would not be a detriment. The committee is not stupid, and they will realize this.
For sake of argument, let’s compare MU with the 19-10 BYU Cougars, who many consider in the tournament, and Lunardi had as his last bye as of Monday. BYU has an RPI of 35 and a SOS of 21. Yes, BYU has 3 wins over top 50 RPI (Stanford (42), Texas (24) and Gonzaga (29). But they also have loses to Utah (89), Pepperdine (127), Pacific (125), Loyola Marymont (179) and Portland (161). They have also only played 1 teams with an RPI worse than 225.
The RPI and SOS numbers take care of themselves if you win, but they can also easily be gamed, or in the case of MU this year, they can game a team. MU would still be 16-10 if they had traded out Grambling, New Hampshire, IUPUI, Ball State and Samford with teams in the 200’s in RPI, and MU would likely have an RPI and SOS in the high 40’s or low 50’s, and their schedule really wouldn’t have been any harder. Computer numbers can only tell you so much.
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MU would still be 16-10 if they had traded out Grambling, New Hampshire, IUPUI, Ball State and Samford with teams in the 200’s in RPI, and MU would likely have an RPI and SOS in the high 40’s or low 50’s, and their schedule really wouldn’t have been any harder. Computer numbers can only tell you so much.
To reinforce this idea, I was playing with RPIforecast.com, and if you were to just "drop" the five games against Grambling, New Hampshire, IUPUI, Ball State and Samford, MU would be 12-10, with an RPI of 32 and a SOS of 2. Obviously every team play buy games and cupcakes, but if you replace those five with teams in the 175-225 range, our RPI and SOS would be a strength when compared to the other bubble teams. Obviously winning a couple non-conference games would have made this all moot, but the point is, our cupcake scheduling absolutely killed our computer numbers this year.
I am thinking and hoping that the committee is smart enough to see through this. Our record would be the same in this case, but our computer numbers would be much, much more appealing.
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Does the NCAA commitee even use the RPI. I think they look more at your record against the top 25, top 50, etc. Why should one team get picked over another team, because they played a couple teams ranked 275 vs a couple of teams ranked 325. MU's probelm is not having enough quality wins. MU's schedule was strong enough, so I do not buy the arguement our schedule is weak. It is the lack of results that is the problem.
Yes and some members use it a lot.
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TAMU, I know your feelings on this matter are similar to mine, mainly because the two of us have actually followed the teams close to the bubble rather than just saying MU SUX!, NIT BOUND!, etc, etc.
But the bottom line is, the bubble is oh so very soft. Just last night Clemson, St. Johns, Dayton, and Missouri all went down in a night where not a ton of basketball was played. All of thsoe teams were directly in front of MU.
Obviously MU has to take care of their own business, but if they do, they'll be in solid shape headed into the BE Tournament. Even at 2-2, not all hope is lost. I have a feeling there will be at least 5 dancing with 13 or more losses.
I appreciate your input on this, but couldn't someone say that people who put their reputations on the line (Lunardi, Palm, etc) for a job and also have us pretty far back are also watching all these other games, too?
You're right, those teams lost last night, but MU also barely beat a pathetic DePaul team. In the RPI, won't matter. In the eye test, it just might. Seems to me these things move around so much in terms of who is playing well, who isn't, what teams were beat, etc that a lot of them cancel each other out.
In complete agreement with you that not all is lost and a chance exists. 3-1 might do it, though I'm skeptical. 4-0 much better. Question is where we think this team can go 4-0. If not, winning the Big East tournament is a cakewalk compared to the last 8 years.
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With the inevitability of some teams stealing a bid via winning the conference tournament, am I the only one who thinks that 4-0 is still not enough?
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How is the Big East tournament a cake walk compared to past years. MU will most likely need to beat a top 50 (kenpom, top 60 rpi) team in the quarterfinals and then a top 10 team in both the semifinals and championship. Seems about the same to me.
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How is the Big East tournament a cake walk compared to past years. MU will most likely need to beat a top 50 (kenpom, top 60 rpi) team in the quarterfinals and then a top 10 team in both the semifinals and championship. Seems about the same to me.
1) Fans.....the old Big East had tons of fans from the area. Playing Nova, G'Town, Cuse, Pitt, Notre Dame meant a hostile environment. It won't be for Creighton, Butler, etc. For St. John's, Nova, and G'Town...yes, but you had a lot more opportunities to run into the others.
2) Depth of quality. When you're your own tournament of 16 teams and 11 of those teams make the NCAA tournament....well, I don't think I need to say anymore
3) National champion contenders....the old Big East with Cuse, Louisville, Pitt, Nova....these were Final Four type teams. I would be stunned if a team out of our conference this year makes the Final Four, but it's a crapshoot so who knows.
4) Less games. Finishing 3rd or 4th n this year's Big East would translate to what in previous years? Could mean an extra game to play as a result...4 instead of 3. Easier.
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How is the Big East tournament a cake walk compared to past years. MU will most likely need to beat a top 50 (kenpom, top 60 rpi) team in the quarterfinals and then a top 10 team in both the semifinals and championship. Seems about the same to me.
Good point. It's often overlooked how tippy top heavy this league is with the rest of the league scrapping away. A team other than Nova and Creighton will likely have to go through both to take the crown. Tall order.
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I appreciate your input on this, but couldn't someone say that people who put their reputations on the line (Lunardi, Palm, etc) for a job and also have us pretty far back are also watching all these other games, too?
You're right, those teams lost last night, but MU also barely beat a pathetic DePaul team. In the RPI, won't matter. In the eye test, it must might. Seems to me these things move around so much in terms of who is playing well, who isn't, what teams were beat, etc that a lot of them cancel each other out.
In complete agreement with you that not all is lost and a chance exists. 3-1 might do it, though I'm skeptical. 4-0 much better. Question is where we think this team can go 4-0. If not, winning the Big East tournament is a cakewalk compared to the last 8 years.
They put there reputation on the line based on predicting what a group of others will decide, not what they actually think themselves.
If you ask me to answer 20 math questions based on what answer is right, and then ask me to answer those same questions based on what I think a group of 20 people would answer, the two sets of answers would not be the same.
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They put there reputation on the line based on predicting what a group of others will decide, not what they actually think themselves.
If you ask me to answer 20 math questions based on what answer is right, and then ask me to answer those same questions based on what I think a group of 20 people would answer, the two sets of answers would not be the same.
This is really splitting hairs. In fact, I'm not sure I buy it.
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Chicos, I do agree it's easier because the depth of good teams is not there and one less game. I guess I just didn't like the use of the word cakewalk, seemed too strong to me.
For the record, I think Creighton and Villanova are capable of making the final four. Hopefully they play well and get some good luck in the tournament for the Big East's sake.
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With the inevitability of some teams stealing a bid via winning the conference tournament, am I the only one who thinks that 4-0 is still not enough?
Yes
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With the inevitability of some teams stealing a bid via winning the conference tournament, am I the only one who thinks that 4-0 is still not enough?
If MU wins the next 4 they won't have to worry very much on Selection Sunday (assuming they don't screw up in the BET)
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If MU wins the next 4 they won't have to worry very much on Selection Sunday (assuming they don't screw up in the BET)
The parenthetical statement should be anywhere but in parentheses. The statement indicates that a loss in our first game in the BE tourney to a team hovering around 50 RPI would be a screw-up and possibly keep us out. I don't think that's true.
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Yes, BYU has 3 wins over top 50 RPI (Stanford (42), Texas (24) and Gonzaga (29).
As you said, the committee is not stupid.
Yet somehow, you think that the committee would suddenly ignore BYU's wins over Stanford, Texas and Gonzaga and find us a superior team because we have wins over the likes of #175 Bowling Green or #200 UT Arlington.
I don't see it. Our problem this year isn't cupcakes. It was going through non-conference with zero signature non-conference wins coupled with a borderline .500 conference record and zero wins aginst the league's only two sure-fire tournament teams.
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As you said, the committee is not stupid.
Yet somehow, you think that the committee would suddenly ignore BYU's wins over Stanford, Texas and Gonzaga and find us a superior team because we have wins over the likes of #175 Bowling Green or #200 UT Arlington.
I don't see it. Our problem this year isn't cupcakes. It was going through non-conference with zero signature non-conference wins coupled with a borderline .500 conference record and zero wins aginst the league's only two sure-fire tournament teams.
Bingo!
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As you said, the committee is not stupid.
Yet somehow, you think that the committee would suddenly ignore BYU's wins over Stanford, Texas and Gonzaga and find us a superior team because we have wins over the likes of #175 Bowling Green or #200 UT Arlington.
I don't see it. Our problem this year isn't cupcakes. It was going through non-conference with zero signature non-conference wins coupled with a borderline .500 conference record and zero wins aginst the league's only two sure-fire tournament teams.
We lost five non-conference games with the worst loss being @ ASU--a stone-cold lock for the tourney at #34 RPI. The rest...UW #5, OSU #18, New Mexico #20, and SDSU #21. I get that we have no good non-conference wins--safe for GWU (a 16-point throttling, I may add)--but we were also playing the cream of the crop in hindsight.
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As you said, the committee is not stupid.
Yet somehow, you think that the committee would suddenly ignore BYU's wins over Stanford, Texas and Gonzaga and find us a superior team because we have wins over the likes of #175 Bowling Green or #200 UT Arlington.
I don't see it. Our problem this year isn't cupcakes. It was going through non-conference with zero signature non-conference wins coupled with a borderline .500 conference record and zero wins aginst the league's only two sure-fire tournament teams.
I said that. It would all be moot if we had won one or two of big OOC matchups, but we didn't. Computer-number wise, if we played the likes of Bowling Green, UT Arlington, and 3 other teams in the 200's versus the horsedung cupcakes we did play, our RPI and SOS numbers would be much, much better. That matters. Now, I don't think the committee is anywhere near as in love with those numbers as some here think, especially when there are much better metrics out there (KenPom, for example, which has MU 55, above most of the bubble teams). Other than Butler, MU has lost to good teams. No other bubble teams can say that. Which is why if we take care of business, we will climb the ladder rather quickly.
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They put there reputation on the line based on predicting what a group of others will decide, not what they actually think themselves.
If you ask me to answer 20 math questions based on what answer is right, and then ask me to answer those same questions based on what I think a group of 20 people would answer, the two sets of answers would not be the same.
Of course, but they get hammered one way or another in the final tally if they "miss" their prediction. Now, if they show that what they predicted should have happened because the committee just didn't do a good job, that's one thing. The assumption here is the committee generally gets it right and they predicting what the committee will do, thus paying attention to these games impacting teams that may or may not get in.
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Chicos, I do agree it's easier because the depth of good teams is not there and one less game. I guess I just didn't like the use of the word cakewalk, seemed too strong to me.
For the record, I think Creighton and Villanova are capable of making the final four. Hopefully they play well and get some good luck in the tournament for the Big East's sake.
Fair enough, though I wasn't saying it is a cakewalk, saying it is a cakewalk compared to the old Big East tournament, which in my mind was the toughest tournament to win.
Whomever wins the Big East tournament will have done something special, its just decidedly less difficult (IMO) than years past.
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Whomever wins the Big East tournament will have done something special, its just decidedly less difficult (IMO) than years past.
Agreed.
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With the inevitability of some teams stealing a bid via winning the conference tournament, am I the only one who thinks that 4-0 is still not enough?
I do not think there is much risk here. Looking at most of the lower level conferences only the conference winner is going anyways. Does UWGB get a bid, if they do not win their conference? Possibly and maybe Toledo. The risk seems to lie in the major conferences were a team like Indiana somehow wons 4 games.
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Richmond losing to George Mason better end any talk of them being a tournament team.
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I do not think there is much risk here. Looking at most of the lower level conferences only the conference winner is going anyways. Does UWGB get a bid, if they do not win their conference? Possibly and maybe Toledo. The risk seems to lie in the major conferences were a team like Indiana somehow wons 4 games.
There is a bit of a risk. The following leagues are getting at-large bids but could have a surprise winner in their tourney:
Big East
A-10
Mountain West
West Coast
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Things are going quite well so far tonight.
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Richmond at George Mason (6 PM, Regional)
Richmond loses
Texas A&M at LSU (7 PM, ESPN3)
LSU wins
West Virginia at Iowa State (7 PM, ESPN3)
West Virginia loses
North Carolina at North Carolina State (7 PM, ESPN3)
NC State loses
Alabama at Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN3)
Ole Miss wins
Tennessee at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Tennessee wins
Toledo at Northern Illinois (7 PM, Regional)
Toledo loses
Indiana State at Illinois State (7:05 PM, Regional)
Indiana State loses
California at Arizona (8 PM, ESPN2)
Cal loses
Baylor at Texas (8 PM, ESPNU)
Baylor loses
Boise State at Fresno State (8 PM, CBSSN)
Boise loses
Nebraska at Illinois (8 PM, BTN)
Nebraska loses
Stanford at Arizona State (10 PM, ESPNU)
Hasn't started
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Ideal bubble results tonight. Nearly every result a team like MU would want.
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If we don't make it, MU vs Illinois in the NIT
http://bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
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Big 10, ACC, and AAC throwing around their weight...
Big East would have a sad showing with only two teams.
Though they both have a good chance to advance to the S16.
Locks: Creighton, Villanova
Should be in: None
Teams on the Bubble:
St. John’s (RPI #54 SOS 35 NC SOS 131)
2-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (3) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 26%
Xavier (RPI #59 SOS 61 NC SOS 116)
3-4 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (4) Magic number is 2
Chances for an at large bid: 18%
Providence (RPI #62 SOS 65 NC SOS 185)
3-6 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining (3) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 14%
Georgetown (RPI #64 SOS 33 NC SOS 35)
6-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (3) win all three and u could get yourself in.
Chances for an at large bid: 12%
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Richmond at George Mason (6 PM, Regional)
Richmond loses
Texas A&M at LSU (7 PM, ESPN3)
LSU wins
West Virginia at Iowa State (7 PM, ESPN3)
West Virginia loses
North Carolina at North Carolina State (7 PM, ESPN3)
NC State loses
Alabama at Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN3)
Ole Miss wins
Tennessee at Mississippi State (7 PM, ESPN3)
Tennessee wins
Toledo at Northern Illinois (7 PM, Regional)
Toledo loses
Indiana State at Illinois State (7:05 PM, Regional)
Indiana State loses
California at Arizona (8 PM, ESPN2)
Cal loses
Baylor at Texas (8 PM, ESPNU)
Baylor loses
Boise State at Fresno State (8 PM, CBSSN)
Boise loses
Nebraska at Illinois (8 PM, BTN)
Nebraska loses
Stanford at Arizona State (10 PM, ESPNU)
Hasn't started
To finish off the list, Arizona State beat Stanford by double digits.
Bubble teams went 4-9 tonight. Of the four wins, the only quality win was Arizona State over Stanford....and hey, that makes our loss look better.
There were some really ugly losses by Richmond, Toledo, Indiana State, Boise State, and Nebraska. The state of Illinois really came through for us tonight.
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Old Miss won tonight
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Old Miss won tonight
Old Miss cannot be considered a bubble team. They have an RPI in the 80's, have not beat a single team that will make it to the tournament and have multiple bad losses.
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Old Miss cannot be considered a bubble team. They have an RPI in the 80's, have not beat a single team that will make it to the tournament and have multiple bad losses.
It's Ole Miss actually. Best thing on their tournament resume is a ton of hot chicks and and a coke head scoring machine.
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Old Miss cannot be considered a bubble team. They have an RPI in the 80's, have not beat a single team that will make it to the tournament and have multiple bad losses.
That was part of the point. They have a RPI of 83, MU of 76. Both teams are on "bubble watch" lists.
They have 1 bad loss, MU has one bad loss. I don't see the multiple bad losses.
They are 4-10 vs top 100, we are 5-12 vs top 100.
Makes you wonder, how firmly either one is on the bubble or are some of these bubble watch articles just picking anyone.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-26/bubble-watch-nebraska-richmond-nc-state-california-baylor-ncaa-tournament-march-madness
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Makes you wonder, how firmly either one is on the bubble or are some of these bubble watch articles just picking anyone.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-26/bubble-watch-nebraska-richmond-nc-state-california-baylor-ncaa-tournament-march-madness
It looks like MU has a lot more to gain in their remaining schedule than Ole Miss, but for right now I'd say both are in the back of the line.
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That was part of the point. They have a RPI of 83, MU of 76. Both teams are on "bubble watch" lists.
They have 1 bad loss, MU has one bad loss. I don't see the multiple bad losses.
They are 4-10 vs top 100, we are 5-12 vs top 100.
How are we 5-12 vs. top 100 when we only have 11 losses total? And one of those losses is to Butler? Did I miss something?
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Big 10, ACC, and AAC throwing around their weight...
Big East would have a sad showing with only two teams.
Though they both have a good chance to advance to the S16.
Locks: Creighton, Villanova
Should be in: None
Teams on the Bubble:
St. John’s (RPI #54 SOS 35 NC SOS 131)
2-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (3) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 26%
Xavier (RPI #59 SOS 61 NC SOS 116)
3-4 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (4) Magic number is 2
Chances for an at large bid: 18%
Providence (RPI #62 SOS 65 NC SOS 185)
3-6 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining (3) Sweating
Chances for an at large bid: 14%
Georgetown (RPI #64 SOS 33 NC SOS 35)
6-7 vs teams in the field
Win/Losses games remaining: (3) win all three and u could get yourself in.
Chances for an at large bid: 12%
Who is the source of this? Becuase my looord are they wrong. An 18% chance to make the tourney for Xavier? 26% for STJ? 14% for Providence?
Who exactly does this guy plan to give at large bids to?
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How are we 5-12 vs. top 100 when we only have 11 losses total? And one of those losses is to Butler? Did I miss something?
Sorry, those are predicted loss totals, not to date.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html
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That was part of the point. They have a RPI of 83, MU of 76. Both teams are on "bubble watch" lists.
They have 1 bad loss, MU has one bad loss. I don't see the multiple bad losses.
They are 4-10 vs top 100, we are 5-12 vs top 100.
Makes you wonder, how firmly either one is on the bubble or are some of these bubble watch articles just picking anyone.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-26/bubble-watch-nebraska-richmond-nc-state-california-baylor-ncaa-tournament-march-madness
They have losses to Alabama (RPI 124) and Miss. St. (RPI 214). Both bad losses.
They are currently 4-9 against the top 100.
We are currently 2-9 against the top 50.
But the devil is in the details. If you include Georgetown and Providence (which I think are top 50 caliber teams) we are:
4-11 against the top 50.
There is a big difference in our resumes not represented in the RPI (which I've always despised). My point had been that you have been writing MU off based on RPI (repeatedly posting about us not being on the bubble), but you made sure to come in this thread and mention Ole Miss's win. Ole Miss is substantially worse than their RPI (boosted by away wins at Coastal Carolina and Western Kentucky and SEC bottom feeders) represents, whereas We are better than are RPI represents (being dragged down by a few RPI bottom feeders). This all despite the fact that Ole Miss is behind us in the RPI.
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Who is the source of this? Becuase my looord are they wrong. An 18% chance to make the tourney for Xavier? 26% for STJ? 14% for Providence?
Who exactly does this guy plan to give at large bids to?
+1. Those percentages are ludicrous. Xavier is in almost every bracket now yet there's a 1 in 4 chance that they make it. The only argument is that those percentages are based on final records whereas brackets are based on where they are now. And Xavier has a brutal home stretch.
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If you include Georgetown and Providence (which I think are top 50 caliber teams) we are:
Actually, neither GU nor Providence are top 50 right now--and they'll only sink lower if we wind up beating them.
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They have losses to Alabama (RPI 124) and Miss. St. (RPI 214). Both bad losses.
They are currently 4-9 against the top 100.
We are currently 2-9 against the top 50.
But the devil is in the details. If you include Georgetown and Providence (which I think are top 50 caliber teams) we are:
4-11 against the top 50.
There is a big difference in our resumes not represented in the RPI (which I've always despised). My point had been that you have been writing MU off based on RPI (repeatedly posting about us not being on the bubble), but you made sure to come in this thread and mention Ole Miss's win. Ole Miss is substantially worse than their RPI (boosted by away wins at Coastal Carolina and Western Kentucky and SEC bottom feeders) represents, whereas We are better than are RPI represents (being dragged down by a few RPI bottom feeders). This all despite the fact that Ole Miss is behind us in the RPI.
I haven't written MU off at all.
I've said MU needs to get probably into the 50's to have a legit shot. Very difficult if they are in the 60's, but rest assured I have not written MU off or given up hope. I want them to make it, who doesn't?
My point was that they, Ole Miss, are making some of the same bubble articles that MU is making.
You are absolutely correct on the bad losses for them. Mea culpa.
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CBS update:
"Marquette: Beating Georgetown on Thursday was nice -- a game the Golden Eagles absolutely needed to win -- but they still have a ton of work to do to get in the conversation. Their computer numbers aren't very good, and they are just 2-9 against the top 50 and 5-10 against the top 100. Marquette is now 9-6 in the Big East, but games against Villanova, Providence and St. John's close out the regular season. The Golden Eagles will have chances to play themselves into the mix."
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24459593/poppin-bubbles-arkansas-sweeps-kentucky-oregon-beats-ucla (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24459593/poppin-bubbles-arkansas-sweeps-kentucky-oregon-beats-ucla)
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I hate these fields on the Big East standings listed on ESPN. A win at Nova would be absolutely monumental. Aren't we do for one of those engimatic, excellent 40-minute games? Now would be the the time.
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Bubble action tonight:
Providence @ Seton Hall
Bubble action tomorrow:
UMASS @ Dayton
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee
Miami @ NC State
Texas Tech @ Baylor
Miss. State @ Missouri
Richmond @ Rhode Island
TCU @ WVU
St. Joe’s @ St. Bonaventure
LSU @ Florida
Georgia @ Arkansas
BYU @ San Diego
Oregon @ USC
Creighton @ Xavier
Northwestern @ Nebraska
Minnesota @ Michigan
Cal @ Arizona State
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M
Probably not that close to the tournament anymore if they don’t win conference tourney, but what the hell..
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State
Colorado @ Utah
W. Michigan @ Toledo
Columbia @ Harvard
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I am predicting a Seton Hall win.
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I am predicting a Seton Hall win.
I could easily see this. It took one of our best games of the year to beat SHU in Jersey. That was a nice win.
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Sporting News...
"Marquette 75, Georgetown 73. In what was a showdown of two teams squarely on the bubble, the Golden Eagles (17-11, No. 73) got a victory they certainly needed to stay in the chase. They have three games left, starting Saturday at Villanova. Then come bubble opponents Providence and St. John’s."
How generous. I'll take it.
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-28/bubble-watch-georgetown-marquette-arkansas-uk-ucla-suspension-ncaa-tournament (http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/story/2014-02-28/bubble-watch-georgetown-marquette-arkansas-uk-ucla-suspension-ncaa-tournament)
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Latest Bubble Watch...
No Marquette yet Gtown is still given a chance--what a joke. If Brennan is giving Gtown a chance based on their remaining schedule, then there is ABSOLUTELY no reason why MU should not be in the conversation as well. It's remarkable how many outlets refuse to recognize us as a bubble team. I have a chip on my shoulder now, damn it. I can only imagine how Buzz is playing this up.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
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Yahoo Sports...
"Marquette (17-11, 9-6): No way would I have guessed Marquette could play its way onto the fringes of the bubble picture, but here the Golden Eagles are threatening to sneak into the field of 68. Their 75-73 victory over Georgetown is their fifth in sixth games, giving them hope entering a final three-game stretch that begins at Villanova on Sunday and continues at Providence and at home against St. John's. Marquette's RPI of 73 is abysmal and its list of victories don't include any surefire NCAA tournament teams besides George Washington, which makes the Villanova game absolutely critical. Get that one on the road and earn at least a split in the remaining two games, and perhaps the Golden Eagles will have some hope entering the Big East tournament."
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/bubble-breakdown-oregon-gets-much-needed-win-over-071453928--ncaab.html (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/bubble-breakdown-oregon-gets-much-needed-win-over-071453928--ncaab.html)
Yep, it's a slow Friday afternoon in the office.
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Latest Bubble Watch...
No Marquette yet Gtown is still given a chance--what a joke. If Brennan is giving Gtown a chance based on their remaining schedule, then there is ABSOLUTELY no reason why MU should not be in the conversation as well. It's remarkable how many outlets refuse to recognize us as a bubble team. I have a chip on my shoulder now, damn it. I can only imagine how Buzz is playing this up.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
Look at the comparative records against top 50 teams and against top 100 games. That's the difference.
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Latest Bubble Watch...
No Marquette yet Gtown is still given a chance--what a joke. If Brennan is giving Gtown a chance based on their remaining schedule, then there is ABSOLUTELY no reason why MU should not be in the conversation as well. It's remarkable how many outlets refuse to recognize us as a bubble team. I have a chip on my shoulder now, damn it. I can only imagine how Buzz is playing this up.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch)
FWIW, Brennan was the ONLY analyst who had us beating Miami last year. So i don't think he's MU-hating just for the sake of it.
Gtown has some signature wins. We have none. None.
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Look at the comparative records against top 50 teams and against top 100 games. That's the difference.
DING DING DING. That's exactly right. They have scalps, we don't.
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DING DING DING. That's exactly right. They have scalps, we don't.
We have the chance to play 6 more games. Scalps are there for the taking. Are we going to peel them back, or let them go?
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We have the chance to play 6 more games. Scalps are there for the taking. Are we going to peel them back, or let them go?
That will decide our fate.
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GU has 3 top 50 wins and 3 losses of 130 or more including to a team with a 232 rpi.
MU has 2 top 50 wins and 1 loss of 130 or higher + a season sweep. I think we've moved ahead of them.
Only about 10 to 15 more teams to go. :)
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GU has 3 top 50 wins and 3 losses of 130 or more including to a team with a 232 rpi.
MU has 2 top 50 wins and 1 loss of 130 or higher + a season sweep. I think we've moved ahead of them.
Only about 10 to 15 more teams to go. :)
GU is 4-5 vs top 50
MU is 2-9 vs top 50
GU is 2-4 vs 51 to 100
MU is 3-1 vs 51 to 100
GU has 3 bad losses (including one really bad loss)
MU has 1 bad losses
GU SOS = 23
MU SOS = 65
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GTOWN/MARQET
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GTOWN/MARQET
Zero >300 RPI wins vs. five also sticks out in a bad way. Though I suppose the SOS and RPI already reflect the result of that.
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GU is 4-5 vs top 50
MU is 2-9 vs top 50
GU is 2-4 vs 51 to 100
MU is 3-1 vs 51 to 100
GU has 3 bad losses (including one really bad loss)
MU has 1 bad losses
GU SOS = 23
MU SOS = 65
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/GTOWN/MARQET
So vs top 100
Georgetown is 6-9
Marquette is 5-10 and we swept Georgetown and have 1 bad loss to their 3.
I think we are now slightly ahead of Georgetown but still need to win 2 out of next 3 and 3 out of next 4 to sneak in.
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So vs top 100
Georgetown is 6-9
Marquette is 5-10 and we swept Georgetown and have 1 bad loss to their 3.
I think we are now slightly ahead of Georgetown but still need to win 2 out of next 3 and 3 out of next 4 to sneak in.
Yes, but you are expanding the range to make the profile work for you...right? I mean, against the best teams, top 50, GU is 4-5 while we are 2-9. That's quite the difference.
Or to take it a step further, against the top 25 RPI GU is 2-3 and MU is 0-7 with the average spread of 9 points per game.
The head to head stuff I believe would only matter if it truly came down to just those teams, which I doubt truly works out that nicely. I keep looking for high quality wins for MU and there just isn't much meat. GW....and Xavier (who is hanging on for dear life in the top 50 at 46).
I would guess the two teams are very close, and both are on the outside looking in. Thank God for 68 teams, still gives us a chance.
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Just saw on ESPN2 that Lunardi has Providence and St. John's as First Four Out, and MU and GTown as Next Four Out.
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Just saw on ESPN2 that Lunardi has Providence and St. John's as First Four Out, and MU and GTown as Next Four Out.
Sounds about right. Holy hell a win tomorrow would be neat.
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Sounds about right. Holy hell a win tomorrow would be neat.
Does Villanova have any conference loyalty?? They should just let us win tomorrow.
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Does Villanova have any conference loyalty?? They should just let us win tomorrow.
Yeah--a forfeit would be good so we can prepare for the next game because each is a must win.
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Nothing in the bracket matrix
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
Still a 3 seed in the NIT version, however.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
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Does Villanova have any conference loyalty?? They should just let us win tomorrow.
Doing so would increase their tourney credits. Why not?
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Yes, but you are expanding the range to make the profile work for you...right? I mean, against the best teams, top 50, GU is 4-5 while we are 2-9. That's quite the difference.
Or to take it a step further, against the top 25 RPI GU is 2-3 and MU is 0-7 with the average spread of 9 points per game.
The head to head stuff I believe would only matter if it truly came down to just those teams, which I doubt truly works out that nicely. I keep looking for high quality wins for MU and there just isn't much meat. GW....and Xavier (who is hanging on for dear life in the top 50 at 46).
I would guess the two teams are very close, and both are on the outside looking in. Thank God for 68 teams, still gives us a chance.
Yes you can say I am expanding the range but what is the difference between team number 25 and team number 26? or team number 50 and team number 51? Point is the committee doesn't just look what you do against the top 25. or top 50.
So if Georgetown had an RPI of 50 instead of 51 that would change the committees mind as we would have 2 more top 50 wins? That doesn't make any sense to me.
The RPI is not the be all end all. Beating Xavier does matter. Beating George Washington does matter. Sweeping bubble teams like Georgetown and Providence does matter a lot. I can't believe if they have a RPI of 51 and 52 instead of 49 and 50 that those victories wouldn't matter as much. The RPI has its purpose but if we are within close range of Georgetown and Georgetown is a bubble team, beating them twice and finishing third and ahead of them in the conference with an above .500 conference record in an equal conference round robin schedule will be valued way more than Georgetown having an RPI that is slightly better than ours.
But this is all mute if we go out and lose 2 or 3 out of our next 4 games.
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Dance Card has only missed one at-large prediction in the last two years.
Lots of work to do according to them....updated through yesterday. We have 15 teams to jump
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Yes you can say I am expanding the range but what is the difference between team number 25 and team number 26? or team number 50 and team number 51? Point is the committee doesn't just look what you do against the top 25. or top 50.
So if Georgetown had an RPI of 50 instead of 51 that would change the committees mind as we would have 2 more top 50 wins? That doesn't make any sense to me.
The RPI is not the be all end all. Beating Xavier does matter. Beating George Washington does matter. Sweeping bubble teams like Georgetown and Providence does matter a lot. I can't believe if they have a RPI of 51 and 52 instead of 49 and 50 that those victories wouldn't matter as much. The RPI has its purpose but if we are within close range of Georgetown and Georgetown is a bubble team, beating them twice and finishing third and ahead of them in the conference with an above .500 conference record in an equal conference round robin schedule will be valued way more than Georgetown having an RPI that is slightly better than ours.
But this is all mute if we go out and lose 2 or 3 out of our next 4 games.
Not much difference between 50 and 51. A lot of difference between 25 and 85. The comparisons to Georgetown are fine if those are the last two teams, but the chances of that are remote. Say they are down to three teams. Georgetown, MU and St. John's? Say SJU sweeps MU...so they get the edge over MU? Yet G'Town split with SJU....and MU swept G'town? So on and so forth. When they look at how the teams did against overall competition, their schedule, etc, then we start looking worse. So I won't disagree with you if it comes down to MU and GU then maybe, but the chances of that are so remote....they will be looking at probably 10 teams for those last few spots.
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Not much difference between 50 and 51. A lot of difference between 25 and 85. The comparisons to Georgetown are fine if those are the last two teams, but the chances of that are remote. Say they are down to three teams. Georgetown, MU and St. John's? Say SJU sweeps MU...so they get the edge over MU? Yet G'Town split with SJU....and MU swept G'town? So on and so forth. When they look at how the teams did against overall competition, their schedule, etc, then we start looking worse. So I won't disagree with you if it comes down to MU and GU then maybe, but the chances of that are so remote....they will be looking at probably 10 teams for those last few spots.
Well the only way we are on the bubble and in the discussion is if we win 2 out of last 3 and 1 tournament game. That means we either beat Villanova or St. Johns or both. Plus another win against a St. Johns/Providence in tournament. That would mean beating all the Big East bubble teams (sweeping or splitting against them) or getting a win on the road against a top 10 team. Either way, it helps our resume a lot. And if that means our RPI is up in the 50s.....its enough to get the committee to take a closer look at us in which case I like our chances over Georgetown.
And I am not talking about 25 vs 85. I am talking about Xavier being 46 or 51. Or any team for that matter having an RPI in the high 40s or low 50s. Frankly it doesn't matter as its still a good win. There is no magic cut off that has 25 as a great win and 26 as not. Or a win against RPI 50 having more merit than 51. They will look at all of our wins and loses very closely and compare to others.
I am not arguing about if we are in or out at the moment. Everyone knows we are out and have a lot of work to do but winning 2 of 3 plus 1 tourney game gets us on the bubble and in the conversation and I will take our resume over Georgetown at that point in time unless they win out. Better conference record by at least 2 games and a season sweep speaks volumes over them having 2 more top 50 wins.
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I'm just going to reiterate how soft the bubble is. Softest I've seen in years.
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The Bubble is strange this year. Pitt is considered reasonably safe. If they lose to Notre Dame today they will be 21-8. With 1 bad loss.
Best win against Stanford (RPI 41).
There better record and better RPI is built on not playing anyone that is any good in the pre-conference.
Even winning this game, they are 21-7 with no good wins besides Stanford.
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The Bubble is strange this year. Pitt is considered reasonably safe. If they lose to Notre Dame today they will be 21-8. With 1 bad loss.
Best win against Stanford (RPI 41).
There better record and better RPI is built on not playing anyone that is any good in the pre-conference.
Even winning this game, they are 21-7 with no good wins besides Stanford.
Agreed, I also don't understand the love SEC teams are getting.
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Well the only way we are on the bubble and in the discussion is if we win 2 out of last 3 and 1 tournament game. That means we either beat Villanova or St. Johns or both. Plus another win against a St. Johns/Providence in tournament. That would mean beating all the Big East bubble teams (sweeping or splitting against them) or getting a win on the road against a top 10 team. Either way, it helps our resume a lot. And if that means our RPI is up in the 50s.....its enough to get the committee to take a closer look at us in which case I like our chances over Georgetown.
And I am not talking about 25 vs 85. I am talking about Xavier being 46 or 51. Or any team for that matter having an RPI in the high 40s or low 50s. Frankly it doesn't matter as its still a good win. There is no magic cut off that has 25 as a great win and 26 as not. Or a win against RPI 50 having more merit than 51. They will look at all of our wins and loses very closely and compare to others.
I am not arguing about if we are in or out at the moment. Everyone knows we are out and have a lot of work to do but winning 2 of 3 plus 1 tourney game gets us on the bubble and in the conversation and I will take our resume over Georgetown at that point in time unless they win out. Better conference record by at least 2 games and a season sweep speaks volumes over them having 2 more top 50 wins.
I'm just telling you how things are categorized based on two chairs of the committee that I've had the pleasure of talking to. If you look at the mock bracket sheets, they are also categorized in this fashion.
As indicated a few weeks ago, the various tools they use do categorize teams into buckets or categories. So though you may be entirely right that the difference between 50 and 51 is by a hair, the way it is categorized is differently. Couldn't we say the same thing about the AP polls? The difference between 25 and 26 is almost none, yet one is considered "ranked" and one is getting votes but doesn't end up with a number next to them.
Categories are drawn for reasons. If I remember correctly it is broken down by top 25 wins, top 50, 51-100, etc. It may have changed.
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Doing so would increase their tourney credits. Why not?
I forgot how literal everyone takes things here....
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I forgot how literal everyone takes things here....
Lol. Oh the irony...
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Georgetown will finish the Big East season with a sub .500 record. It will be a joke if they make the tournament.
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Another interesting bubble item and strangeness of the RPI. VCU is currently 22 in the RPI.
They are 21-7. The biggest difference between them and us as far as resume is that they are 11-0 against the bottom 150. Whereas we are 7-0. Swap 4 of our top 50 losses for bottom 150 wins and we would have the same record.
They have 4 more games against the bottom 150 yet still have a higher SOS than us. Truly absurd.
VCU does have a big win at Virginia, which goes a long way, but not 49 spots in the RPI different.
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Another interesting bubble item and strangeness of the RPI. VCU is currently 22 in the RPI.
They are 21-7. The biggest difference between them and us as far as resume is that they are 11-0 against the bottom 150. Whereas we are 7-0. Swap 4 of our top 50 losses for bottom 150 wins and we would have the same record.
They have 4 more games against the bottom 150 yet still have a higher SOS than us. Truly absurd.
VCU does have a big win at Virginia, which goes a long way, but not 49 spots in the RPI different.
Yep, the RPI is very flawed. Despite what some here will tell you, the committee uses RPI less and less every year. There are much better metrics out there.
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Yep, the RPI is very flawed. Despite what some here will tell you, the committee uses RPI less and less every year. There are much better metrics out there.
100% correct.
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Another interesting bubble item and strangeness of the RPI. VCU is currently 22 in the RPI.
They are 21-7. The biggest difference between them and us as far as resume is that they are 11-0 against the bottom 150. Whereas we are 7-0. Swap 4 of our top 50 losses for bottom 150 wins and we would have the same record.
They have 4 more games against the bottom 150 yet still have a higher SOS than us. Truly absurd.
VCU does have a big win at Virginia, which goes a long way, but not 49 spots in the RPI different.
Yes - "SOS" doesn't measure difficulty of schedule.
As for the "big win at Virginia", it's important to their RPI in that it's a road win.. but it's the same as winning anywhere, not just Virginia. In fact, excluding that impact (i.e., i.e., winning helping VCU's adjusted winning percentage), the fact that they won at Virginia instead of losing at Virginia actually lowers their RPI.
RPI concerns itself more so with who you play, not who you beat.
RPI bloooows. Just one thing of many to glance at.
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Yes - "SOS" doesn't measure difficulty of schedule.
As for the "big win at Virginia", it's important to their RPI in that it's a road win.. but it's the same as winning anywhere, not just Virginia. In fact, excluding that impact (i.e., i.e., winning helping VCU's adjusted winning percentage), the fact that they won at Virginia instead of losing at Virginia actually lowers their RPI.
RPI concerns itself more so with who you play, not who you beat.
RPI bloooows. Just one thing of many to glance at.
I believe you, but the fact that people use any metric that results in that is absurd.
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I believe you, but the fact that people use any metric that results in that is absurd.
+1. If that's true, it should be abandoned ASAP.
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Jay bee care to explain the math, or at least post references where I could figure out the math myself?
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Plenty of bubble action tonight!
Ole Miss falls to Texas A&M (Whoop!)
UMass gets upset by Dayton
Miami probably pops the bubble of NC State
Vandy gets literally doubled up by Tennessee
Northern Iowa officially ends Indiana State's bubble chances
TCU is slaughtered by West Virginia
Texas Tech goes down to Baylor
Mississippi State gets destroyed by Missouri
Colorado gets tripped up by Utah
Richmond gets EMBARRASSED by 23 at Rhode Island
St. Joe's flies past St. Bonaventure
LSU gets chomped by Florida
Georgia goes down to Arkansas
UWGB beats Detroit
BYU gets past San Diego
Oregon stomps USC
Creighton is shocked by Xavier
Northwestern bows down to Nebraska
Stephen F. Austin stays undefeated in the Southland by beating SE Louisiana
Minnesota can't handle Michigan
California is destroyed by Arizona State
Toledo survives an OT scare against Western Michigan
Boise State bests Wyoming
Rice is beaten by Middle Tennessee
Columbia can't stop Harvard
Kansas blows it against Oklahoma State
Bubble teams go 18-8
Key Wins:
Xavier over Creighton
Oklahoma State over Kansas
Bubbles Popped:
Ole Miss
NC State
Indiana State
Richmond
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Plenty of bubble action tonight!
Ole Miss falls to Texas A&M (Whoop!)
UMass gets upset by Dayton
Miami probably pops the bubble of NC State
Vandy gets literally doubled up by Tennessee
Northern Iowa officially ends Indiana State's bubble chances
TCU is slaughtered by West Virginia
Texas Tech goes down to Baylor
Mississippi State gets destroyed by Missouri
Colorado gets tripped up by Utah
Richmond gets EMBARRASSED by 23 at Rhode Island
St. Joe's flies past St. Bonaventure
LSU gets chomped by Florida
Georgia goes down to Arkansas
UWGB beats Detroit
BYU gets past San Diego
Oregon stomps USC
Creighton is shocked by Xavier
Northwestern bows down to Nebraska
Stephen F. Austin stays undefeated in the Southland by beating SE Louisiana
Minnesota can't handle Michigan
California is destroyed by Arizona State
Toledo survives an OT scare against Western Michigan
Boise State bests Wyoming
Rice is beaten by Middle Tennessee
Columbia can't stop Harvard
Kansas blows it against Oklahoma State
Bubble teams go 18-8
Key Wins:
Xavier over Creighton
Oklahoma State over Kansas
Bubbles Popped:
Ole Miss
NC State
Indiana State
Richmond
Xavier hasn't really been on the bubble at all. They've been squarly in for two months.
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Some bubble action tomorrow!
Depaul at St. John's (11 AM, CBSSN)
Maryland at Clemson (12 PM, ESPN3)
George Mason at George Washington (12 PM, NBCSN)
Marquette at Villanova (1 PM, CBS)
Southern Miss at Florida Atlantic (1 PM, Regional)
Ohio State at Indiana (3 PM, CBS)
Louisiana Tech at UAB (3 PM, Regional)
Georgia Tech at Florida State (5 PM, ESPN3)
We will be the only bubble team projected to lose tomorrow. Let's prove the haters wrong.
RING OUT AHOYA!!!
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Xavier hasn't really been on the bubble at all. They've been squarly in for two months.
Lunardi had them as a 10 seed less than a week ago. That's bubble to me
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Jay bee care to explain the math, or at least post references where I could figure out the math myself?
Sounds like great fun on a Saturday night... let me dream something up quickly..
OK, consider: Basketball RPI can be thought of as having 3 factors - (1) Adjusted winning percentage; (2) Opp's winning percentage; and, (3) Opp's Opp's winning percentage... these are weighted 25%, 50%, 25%.
(2) and (3) are what people like to call "SOS" or strength of schedule. This is a misnomer.. the example I'm going over actually makes some logical sense in some regards.. but, a goofy SOS example - let's say MU is scheduling for next year. The last game is going to be against Duke.. Buzz calls you and ax's, "we want a good SOS... which will give us a stronger SOS - playing AT Duke or playing at Bradley Center?"..
Any logical purpose knows that your schedule is... harder... or more challenging.. if you play AT Duke rather than host them... but SOS doesn't. The answer for Buzz is, "it doesn't matter... SOS doesn't care if you play at home, away or on Mars.. it's all the same to your 'strength of schedule'"
...but, back to the numbers.
So.. what I said is taking out the fact that VCU won a road game..(doesn't matter who they beat, factor (1) / adjusted winning percentage doesn't care)... VCU's RPI - in this example, their "SOS" actually is lower because they won.. it would be better if they had lost.
Factor (2) and Factor (3) are calculated differently - there are a couple of significant differences. In this case, the one to be aware of is that the Virginia's unadjusted win-loss record included in VCU's factor (2) is excluding their game(s) with VCU. So, win or lose,... no impact.
Factor (3) includes Virginia IF any of VCU's opponents have played them.. in the case of this season, I believe there are six common opponents.. so in the vast pool of VCU's factor 3 opponents of VCU opponents... there are several weightings of Virginia included. Virginia's contribution to VCU's factor 3 includes the VCU/Virginia game... so, because Virginia lost, it actually hurts VCU's factor 3.
So.. you have a bad guy on Factor 3... and no impact on factor 2.. for a net bad guy to VCU's SOS because they beat Virginia instead of losing to Virginia.
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Lunardi had them as a 10 seed less than a week ago. That's bubble to me
A ten seed would put them safely in by 10-12 spots. Besides, if the 3rd team in the NCAAT is squarely on the bubble as you say, the real bubble teams including Marquette are much further out of the picture than anyone here would want to think.
Xavier's in at this point and probably a 7-9 seed after their win against Creighton.
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A ten seed would put them safely in by 10-12 spots. Besides, if the 3rd team in the NCAAT is squarely on the bubble as you say, the real bubble teams including Marquette are much further out of the picture than anyone here would want to think.
Xavier's in at this point and probably a 7-9 seed after their win against Creighton.
Definitely agree that Xavier is in. Think it is likely that BEast only gets those three in dance, with n ouside chance of St. John's being the fourth if they finish strong. MU would have to move big mountains to get in now. Is Ox up to that challenge? He will need plenty of help.
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Lunardi was just talking about Marquette on ESPN Bracketology
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Lunardi was just talking about Marquette on ESPN Bracketology
Didn't hear it all, but I thought it was in the context of them playing both St. John's and Providence who he has on the bubble. Did Lunardi give us any chance?
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Yep, the RPI is very flawed. Despite what some here will tell you, the committee uses RPI less and less every year. There are much better metrics out there.
Uses it less and less every year? Can you back this up?
Go back each year and do a search on SCOOP around March and how many people say it is used less and less, or has no impact at all. Then the selections come out and each year people are dumbfounded with the comments by the chair, the actual selections, etc. I don't know why people put themselves through this time and time again. Its like Groundhog Day.
Is it flawed....absolutely. Is every system flawed...absolutely. Is simply using the eyeball test flawed....perhaps even more so. No one is saying the RPI is great, but people that want to pretend it isn't used or plays little to no role are annually upset at the results.
Just look at what happened with the mock committee only 2 weeks ago. Ignore it if you wish, or listen to what they say, what the chairs of past committees say. To each their own. Not the end all be all, but to say it is used less and less is based on what?
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100% correct.
Yes, 100% that it is flawed. 0% correct that it is used less and less.
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Here's a pretty good article with last year's chair about the RPI. Similar to what Doug and Dan have told me in the past, who were both committee chairs. It is used as an organizing tool.
And here's the big one, and Bobinsky mentions it in the article. The other systems (almost all) use margin of victory in their analysis and the NCAA wants nothing to do with that as an element. They pulled it out of the BCS long ago and it has no bearing in the RPI. Now, all of us may bitch and moan that its not in there, but it isn't. As a result, that props up the RPI over other tools. Dan said the same thing to me. Other tools are used, but because the margin of victory is in there in the other tools, it becomes problematic. They do not want a system that rewards teams for pounding another team into submission to get style points and running up the score.
As Bobinsky says, it isn't the end all be all. Tons of stuff goes into selecting a team, including how teams can game their RPI, etc. But to deny its usage and even its importance to them as an organizing vehicle is crazy talk. Whether we hear it publicly from a chairperson in the news, or more candid conversations with former chairs one on one.
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2013/02/20/the-ncaa-tournament-and-the-rpi/
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Uses it less and less every year? Can you back this up?
Go back each year and do a search on SCOOP around March and how many people say it is used less and less, or has no impact at all. Then the selections come out and each year people are dumbfounded with the comments by the chair, the actual selections, etc. I don't know why people put themselves through this time and time again. Its like Groundhog Day.
Is it flawed....absolutely. Is every system flawed...absolutely. Is simply using the eyeball test flawed....perhaps even more so. No one is saying the RPI is great, but people that want to pretend it isn't used or plays little to no role are annually upset at the results.
Just look at what happened with the mock committee only 2 weeks ago. Ignore it if you wish, or listen to what they say, what the chairs of past committees say. To each their own. Not the end all be all, but to say it is used less and less is based on what?
I certainly do not ignore RPI. Unfortunately, it has been used as the "default rating system" per say for some time. The newer metrics have simply flown by RPI in accuracy and logic. Hence, each year that goes by, more people respect the other systems are realize their benefits. As BUzz said the other day, RPI is good for categorizing teams in big sections. For instance, Top 100 - quality; 100-225 mediocre to bad; 225+ poor.
The committee is a group of individuals who have a boat load of information to digest. RPI is certainly looked at, and will probably even be the rating that will be quoted when first discussing a team's inclusion. But, RPI is just one check in the box at the end of the day.
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Didn't hear it all, but I thought it was in the context of them playing both St. John's and Providence who he has on the bubble. Did Lunardi give us any chance?
He basically insinuated that since we play both St. John's and Providence and all 3 of us are on the bubble, we really have a chance to make a statement and beat both of them to get into the field. Winning today would be the first step but judging by what he was saying... if we win out it seems like we'd be in the field for sure.... 0-0, 3 game season... doable right Lloyd??
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He basically insinuated that since we play both St. John's and Providence and all 3 of us are on the bubble, we really have a chance to make a statement and beat both of them to get into the field. Winning today would be the first step but judging by what he was saying... if we win out it seems like we'd be in the field for sure.... 0-0, 3 game season... doable right Lloyd??
Without a doubt Harry!
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A ten seed would put them safely in by 10-12 spots. Besides, if the 3rd team in the NCAAT is squarely on the bubble as you say, the real bubble teams including Marquette are much further out of the picture than anyone here would want to think.
Xavier's in at this point and probably a 7-9 seed after their win against Creighton.
I think we just have different definitions of the bubble. I consider the bubble to be any team that can play their way in or out of the tournament. Since X beat Creighton, they are now a lock. Before that, they could have ended the season on a 5 game skid
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I think we just have different definitions of the bubble. I consider the bubble to be any team that can play their way in or out of the tournament. Since X beat Creighton, they are now a lock. Before that, they could have ended the season on a 5 game skid
They could have, but any bracketology figures as if the season ended today. Looking at it from that perspective they've never been on the bubble for quite some time.
Put your point is correct that prior to beating Creighton they could have technically played their way out of the field.
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I certainly do not ignore RPI. Unfortunately, it has been used as the "default rating system" per say for some time. The newer metrics have simply flown by RPI in accuracy and logic. Hence, each year that goes by, more people respect the other systems are realize their benefits. As BUzz said the other day, RPI is good for categorizing teams in big sections. For instance, Top 100 - quality; 100-225 mediocre to bad; 225+ poor.
The committee is a group of individuals who have a boat load of information to digest. RPI is certainly looked at, and will probably even be the rating that will be quoted when first discussing a team's inclusion. But, RPI is just one check in the box at the end of the day.
There are others that are definitely better at PREDICTING outcomes, which is also why they use margin of victory in their calculations. Personally, I like Sagarin's system the best. I like Pomeroy, but we all saw the "Wisconsin effect" the last few years. As Ken has stated, NO SYSTEM is perfect. People tend to gravitate toward a system that puts their team in the best light. Understandable.
I'm just not going to ignore the RPI or lessen its impact based on what two Chairpersons have told me and based on repeated articles validating it. The others use margin of victory...that's not good to the committee. Furthermore, the NCAA created the RPI, and members of the NCAA institutions like to rely on stuff they created, that they understand (warts and all).
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There are others that are definitely better at PREDICTING outcomes, which is also why they use margin of victory in their calculations. Personally, I like Sagarin's system the best. I like Pomeroy, but we all saw the "Wisconsin effect" the last few years. As Ken has stated, NO SYSTEM is perfect. People tend to gravitate toward a system that puts their team in the best light. Understandable.
I'm just not going to ignore the RPI or lessen its impact based on what two Chairpersons have told me and based on repeated articles validating it. The others use margin of victory...that's not good to the committee. Furthermore, the NCAA created the RPI, and members of the NCAA institutions like to rely on stuff they created, that they understand (warts and all).
You were fine until the bolded part. "that's not good to the committee" -- this is completely made up by you. Some committee members fully believe it's relevant and they are provided plenty of information that includes margin of victory. You're just off base here.
The "they like to rely on stuff they created, that they understand" is again more stuff made up by you. It's a question of individuals and the make up of the group in any one year. All folks at NCAA institutions aren't blind zombies.. remember, many of the committee members are from the same schools that have beef with various things the NCAA does. To claim they accept an "NCAA rubber stamp" as good or something 'they like to rely on because "they" created it' is nonsense.
That said, the RPI is in front of their faces and surely is a very real factor in discussions and considerations. But, let's not get carried away.
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From CBS.... Sad but painfully true...
Losers:
Marquette: This was a team that had played itself into the periphery of the at-large discussion by winning five of its last six -- but the Golden Eagles likely needed to beat Villanova on Sunday to really get in the mix. And they lost pretty convincingly. The defeat drops Marquette to 2-10 against teams in the top 50, and 5-11 against teams in the top 100. Combine that with 12 overall losses, poor computer numbers, a bad non-conference SOS, and the Golden Eagles probably will need the automatic bid. They have Providence and St. John's to finish the season, and could play spoiler on those teams' at-large hopes.
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You were fine until the bolded part. "that's not good to the committee" -- this is completely made up by you. Some committee members fully believe it's relevant and they are provided plenty of information that includes margin of victory. You're just off base here.
The "they like to rely on stuff they created, that they understand" is again more stuff made up by you. It's a question of individuals and the make up of the group in any one year. All folks at NCAA institutions aren't blind zombies.. remember, many of the committee members are from the same schools that have beef with various things the NCAA does. To claim they accept an "NCAA rubber stamp" as good or something 'they like to rely on because "they" created it' is nonsense.
That said, the RPI is in front of their faces and surely is a very real factor in discussions and considerations. But, let's not get carried away.
Sigh. Several other people were with me, you can hear from them if you wish. To paraphrase, 'the NCAA has a process and a way of doing things. Like other institutions, change comes about slowly and when you use something for that long that has had so much invested in it over the years it you don't just discard it. Nor is there a reason to. It has value. It is not perfect, but it is consistent and it has value over the years'
You weren't there, don't tell me what was said and wasn't said.
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From CBS.... Sad but painfully true...
Losers:
Marquette: This was a team that had played itself into the periphery of the at-large discussion by winning five of its last six -- but the Golden Eagles likely needed to beat Villanova on Sunday to really get in the mix. And they lost pretty convincingly. The defeat drops Marquette to 2-10 against teams in the top 50, and 5-11 against teams in the top 100. Combine that with 12 overall losses, poor computer numbers, a bad non-conference SOS, and the Golden Eagles probably will need the automatic bid. They have Providence and St. John's to finish the season, and could play spoiler on those teams' at-large hopes.
Yep, rattle off 4 in a row and then lose in the BE final and I think MU will be right there. But that's what it has come down to.
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Sigh. Several other people were with me, you can hear from them if you wish. To paraphrase, 'the NCAA has a process and a way of doing things. Like other institutions, change comes about slowly and when you use something for that long that has had so much invested in it over the years it you don't just discard it. Nor is there a reason to. It has value. It is not perfect, but it is consistent and it has value over the years'
You weren't there, don't tell me what was said and wasn't said.
I have to. Otherwise you make believe things like Dan G removing the comf rankings from team sheets when he was commish.
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New bracketology today (ESPN insider) has Marquette as one of four teams also considered (9-12 out). Other 3 are Richmond, Utah and indiana. Win our next four and we'll have 4 more top 75 wins and an estimated RPI of 42. That'd do it.
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Yep, rattle off 4 in a row and then lose in the BE final and I think MU will be right there. But that's what it has come down to.
We have not rattled off 4 in a row this year.
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We have not rattled off 4 in a row this year.
There's a pill that would help with that.
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We have not rattled off 4 in a row this year.
Fun fact: I had to un-ignore you to quote this, but I never said it was likely. In fact, I lost a whole boat load of confidence yesterday. But there is still a chance of an at-large under that scenario. Otherwise BET champs or bubble busted.
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3 seed vs 6 seed Washington....hopefully we win the Big East and this is a non issue.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
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3 seed vs 6 seed Washington....hopefully we win the Big East and this is a non issue.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
Just looking at this, pretty amazed by the number of established programs projected to be in the NIT....
Marquette
Indiana
Illinois
Georgetown
Maryland
NC State
West Virginia
Missouri
Florida State
Texas A&M
Utah
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Just looking at this, pretty amazed by the number of established programs projected to be in the NIT....
Marquette
Indiana
Illinois
Georgetown
Maryland
NC State
West Virginia
Missouri
Florida State
Texas A&M
Utah
Was kind of thinking the same thing the other day. Then again, I'm guessing you could put together a pretty similiar list every year. There's a reason MU was like 5th with most consecutive appearances with what, 8?
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Just looking at this, pretty amazed by the number of established programs projected to be in the NIT....
Marquette
Indiana
Illinois
Georgetown
Maryland
NC State
West Virginia
Missouri
Florida State
Texas A&M
Utah
We probably need another win to feel comfortable about making the NIT field.
First, realize that the field is not the next 32 best teams--each of the last two years there have been 10-11 auto-qualifiers. There have been only 21 or 22 at-large teams.
So 68 NCAA teams + 22 NIT at-large puts the cutoff at roughly the top 90 teams. A handful of teams over 90 were invited, and a handful under 90 wer not. Last year from the Big East, Providence (#86) and St. Johns (#89) were invited.
If we lose to St. John, RPI rank is forecasted to drop to 81 (or increase to 67 if we win). A first-round loss in the BET would drop us further. That would seem to be uncomfortably close to the NIT bubble.
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Georgetown just beat Creighton. Not handily, but not exactly a nail-biter either. I would think that win would have put them on the good side of the bubble.
Are they really NIT-bound?
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wooh, hooh - now we are talking NIT Bubble for Marq.... excuse me while I got vomit...
We probably need another win to feel comfortable about making the NIT field.
First, realize that the field is not the next 32 best teams--each of the last two years there have been 10-11 auto-qualifiers. There have been only 21 or 22 at-large teams.
So 68 NCAA teams + 22 NIT at-large puts the cutoff at roughly the top 90 teams. A handful of teams over 90 were invited, and a handful under 90 wer not. Last year from the Big East, Providence (#86) and St. Johns (#89) were invited.
If we lose to St. John, RPI rank is forecasted to drop to 81 (or increase to 67 if we win). A first-round loss in the BET would drop us further. That would seem to be uncomfortably close to the NIT bubble.
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wooh, hooh - now we are talking NIT Bubble for Marq.... excuse me while I got vomit...
Do you really care? I could not care less if we got an invite to the NIT or not.
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Georgetown just beat Creighton. Not handily, but not exactly a nail-biter either. I would think that win would have put them on the good side of the bubble.
Are they really NIT-bound?
Agreed. The Hoyas are definitely in today, and probably still should be with a loss to Nova tomorrow.
Georgetown has quality wins over KSU, VCU, and Michigan State on neutral courts, and victories over Providence, Xavier, and Creighton at home. That is miles away better than other bubble teams, even considering a bad November loss to Northeastern. Getting swept by Seton Hall doesn't look as bad either... Pirates kenpom is 80 currently.
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wooh, hooh - now we are talking NIT Bubble for Marq.... excuse me while I got vomit...
For the last 2 months, every post of yours has been a tired old one-liner knocking MU or the season. You've become MUscoop's less-funny version of Don Rickles.
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Do you really care? I could not care less if we got an invite to the NIT or not.
Well it would be kind of nice for the seniors and/or give Buzz a chance to play with the lineups even more, eg, let JJJ play 30 minutes
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Fwiw, as sad as it sounds, MU is lock city for the NIT even if they lose the next two games... which I doubt they do. Top 4-seed as well.
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probably coincides with Marquette becoming a less-competitive version of a basketball team.... ;D
For the last 2 months, every post of yours has been a tired old one-liner knocking MU or the season. You've become MUscoop's less-funny version of Don Rickles.
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Well it would be kind of nice for the seniors and/or give Buzz a chance to play with the lineups even more, eg, let JJJ play 30 minutes
They'll play in some tournament. So the extra playing time is not a concern.
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If we are a top 4 seed in the NIT, does that mean we get another game at the Bradley Center?
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If we are a top 4 seed in the NIT, does that mean we get another game at the Bradley Center?
I believe so... the NIT has a topsy-turvy way of doing the home games. I believe if MU defers to play away their first game (due to NCAA's at the BC), I believe they get to host next round. I could be wrong.
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Why doesn't Brennan do a Bubble Watch for the NIT? That's so discriminatory.
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Georgetown just beat Creighton. Not handily, but not exactly a nail-biter either. I would think that win would have put them on the good side of the bubble.
Are they really NIT-bound?
I'm not so sure, I think 3 are in for Big East, but G'Town still has work to do
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I'm not sure Marquette is "lock city" for a top 4 seed in the NIT if they lose their next 2. Gotta think they move to about 20-25 teams off the NCAA bubble with 2 more straight losses, but what do I know.
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html
Haven't paid attention to NIT bracketology in the past, but this has us as a 3 seed currently... Sounds about right given our position on the NCAA bubble.
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I believe so... the NIT has a topsy-turvy way of doing the home games. I believe if MU defers to play away their first game (due to NCAA's at the BC), I believe they get to host next round. I could be wrong.
Didn't even think about the Bradley Center hosting the NCAAs as a conflict, but isn't the NIT on a different timetable?
Actually, if it was a conflict, it would be fun to have a game back at the US Cellular Arena. They could probably just about fill it, rather than have a half-empty Bradley Center for an NIT game.
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I'm not sure Marquette is "lock city" for a top 4 seed in the NIT if they lose their next 2. Gotta think they move to about 20-25 teams off the NCAA bubble with 2 more straight losses, but what do I know.
That's my point. Only 20 to 22 at-large teams have made it in recent years. Remember that when the NCAA bought the NIT, regular season champs that don't win their league's auto bid or an at-large to the NCAA receive an auto NIT bid. That's been about 10 teams each of the last two seasons.
It could be even worse. In 2011 there were 14 automatic bids and only 18 at-large teams.
If we take 2 more losses making us 20 to 25 teams off the NCAA bubble, that would seem to be toward the tail end of the NIT at-large selections. We certainly woudln't be a top 4 seed.
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That's my point. Only 20 to 22 at-large teams have made it in recent years. Remember that when the NCAA bought the NIT, regular season champs that don't win their league's auto bid or an at-large to the NCAA receive an auto NIT bid. That's been about 10 teams each of the last two seasons.
It could be even worse. In 2011 there were 14 automatic bids and only 18 at-large teams.
If we take 2 more losses making us 20 to 25 teams off the NCAA bubble, that would seem to be toward the tail end of the NIT at-large selections. We certainly woudln't be a top 4 seed.
Both of your "points" are way off... even if we lose the next two (which I don't see happening), we are not going to be 20-25 teams from the bubble. We'd probably be 12-15 teams from last ncaa spot.
I didnt say we were a lock city for a top-4 seed if we lost the next two, just that we're in regardless right now. And there'd still be an outside chance for top-4 seed (not that it means that much anyways).
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Both of your "points" are way off... even if we lose the next two (which I don't see happening), we are not going to be 20-25 teams from the bubble. We'd probably be 12-15 teams from last ncaa spot.
I didnt say we were a lock city for a top-4 seed if we lost the next two, just that we're in regardless right now. And there'd still be an outside chance for top-4 seed (not that it means that much anyways).
Disagree - we are already at least 12 teams from the last NCAA spot. 2 more losses will bring it down to at least 20
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I hope to avoid these dust-ups for the next, oh say, 10 years.
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Disagree - we are already at least 12 teams from the last NCAA spot. 2 more losses will bring it down to at least 20
Dance Card agrees with you. They have us 14 spots off right now.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Dance Card agrees with you. They have us 14 spots off right now.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Incorrect. You're not using your dancecard site correctly as it includes conference winners on that list.
Using that site, there are only 11 at large teams are in front of us. Three teams (GB, So Miss, ND State) above us are consensus conference winners by all bracketologists, so you net them out. Four teams behind us (Toledo, SFA, Harvard, Belmont) also are projected to be conference winners.
For us to be 20-25 teams at-large teams out, that means another 10-14 teams still have to jump us. For MU to miss the NIT, using your dancecard site, we'd have to fall below #77 Manhattan.
And yes, this logic includes the assumption that there will be 9 NIT bid stealers like there were last year, leaving only 23 NIT spots.
All this also assumes those teams listed from #56 from #78 all win, thus leapfrogging MU. About half of them will lose the rest of their games, thus making it hard to leapfrog anyone.
So again, even in catastrophe (MU loses two), we're not dropping below a Manhattan or Georgia resume.
NIT is lock city at this point no matter what... but let's just win 3 games next week at MSG, and laugh at this stupid conversation later.
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NIT Hype........you got to love it!!
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NIT Hype........you got to love it!!
No hype. Just ridiculous that people think we'd fall lower than NIT.
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Incorrect. You're not using your dancecard site correctly as it includes conference winners on that list.
Using that site, there are only 11 at large teams are in front of us. Three teams (GB, So Miss, ND State) above us are consensus conference winners by all bracketologists, so you net them out.
Four teams behind us (Toledo, SFA, Harvard, Belmont) also are projected to be conference winners.
For us to be 20-25 teams at-large teams out, that means another 10-14 teams still have to jump us. For MU to miss the NIT, using your dancecard site, we'd have to fall below #77 Manhattan.
And yes, this logic includes the assumption that there will be 9 NIT bid stealers like there were last year, leaving only 23 NIT spots.
All this also assumes those teams listed from #56 from #78 all win, thus leapfrogging MU. About half of them will lose the rest of their games, thus making it hard to leapfrog anyone.
So again, even in catastrophe (MU loses two), we're not dropping below a Manhattan or Georgia resume.
NIT is lock city at this point no matter what... but let's just win 3 games next week at MSG, and laugh at this stupid conversation later.
Wel, all I can say is that losing two may push our RPI rank into the mid- to high 80's, which is the point in years past at which teams start to miss getting an NIT bid.
Last year six teams with an RPI ranking under 85 did not make the NIT. If we're at that number or higher, that doesn't sound like "lock city.".
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nm
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It was a very different time, with unique circumstances, but Al wasn't above playing in the NIT in 1970. This year has been very disappointing but win or lose in the Big East tournment I will be watching MU with interest and hope that we can at least get a 20 win season.
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Well it would be kind of nice for the seniors and/or give Buzz a chance to play with the lineups even more, eg, let JJJ play 30 minutes
Who?
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No hype. Just ridiculous that people think we'd fall lower than NIT.
LEAD PIPE LOCK OF THE CENTURY.
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LEAD PIPE LOCK OF THE CENTURY.
I'm thinking the bubble talk this year was pipe dream stuff. Absolute pipe dream.
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I'm thinking the bubble talk this year was pipe dream stuff. Absolute pipe dream.
It was since at least the Butler game. Every win just increased the amount of false hope. Oh well. Shoulda would coulda