The Bubble

[wardle2wade]

Crazy game, best the Aggies offense looked all season. Former Marquette target Jamal Jones put on a show with 5/10 from 3. Could definitely have used that this year...

Jamail Jones is at FGCU unless there's another one I forgot we recruited? 

[wardle2wade]

Twitta tracka...
@JonRothstein: This might be the softest bubble I can remember for the NCAA Tournament. Several power leagues with only a handful of teams that are locks.

Rothstein is a respected analyst for CBS, keeps good tabs on teams' tourney profiles, etc.  This year is wide open for MU to snag a bid if they go 6-1 or 5-2 down the stretch... Lot of flawed resumes out there.

[willie warrior]

Twitta tracka...
@JonRothstein: This might be the softest bubble I can remember for the NCAA Tournament. Several power leagues with only a handful of teams that are locks.

Rothstein is a respected analyst for CBS, keeps good tabs on teams' tourney profiles, etc.  This year is wide open for MU to snag a bid if they go 6-1 or 5-2 down the stretch... Lot of flawed resumes out there.

That is likely accurate, but so is our resume. If we get in we will need 6-1, maybe 5-2 if we beat both Creighton and Vanillanova,

[frozena pizza]

If you had to choose between a double digit seed in the NCAAs and getting knocked out in the first round or a NIT final four, which would you take?  I'd probably take the NCAA bid, partly because of our streak, but it's close.

[copious1218]

If you had to choose between a double digit seed in the NCAAs and getting knocked out in the first round or a NIT final four, which would you take?  I'd probably take the NCAA bid, partly because of our streak, but it's close.

NOT CLOSE.  NCAA every time. I would take losing in the NCAA play-in game over winning the NIT. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If you had to choose between a double digit seed in the NCAAs and getting knocked out in the first round or a NIT final four, which would you take?  I'd probably take the NCAA bid, partly because of our streak, but it's close.

Really? NCAA every single time. You never know what can happen. Who cares about the NIT? If we end up there, I guess I will care this year, but every other year, I may watch a game or two in the NIT.  Who remembers the NIT final four? The answer is very few.

[frozena pizza]

Really? NCAA every single time. You never know what can happen. Who cares about the NIT? If we end up there, I guess I will care this year, but every other year, I may watch a game or two in the NIT.  Who remembers the NIT final four? The answer is very few.

But that's not the question - it's a hypothetical where you DO know what happens.  Sure, nobody remembers the NIT final four but nobody remembers the 11 seed that got bounced on Thursday afternoon either.

[TallTitan34]

The only thing I hold my hat on is that the Big East is third in the RPI.  

[Litehouse]

NCAA every time, and twice on (selection) Sunday.

[jsglow]

NCAA every time, and twice on (selection) Sunday.

+1.

Heck, this year I'd try to roadtrip to Dayton.

[wardle2wade]

If you had to choose between a double digit seed in the NCAAs and getting knocked out in the first round or a NIT final four, which would you take?  I'd probably take the NCAA bid, partly because of our streak, but it's close.

NCAA bid every time.  Even if we get blasted like did vs Providence in 1997.

[Windyplayer]

But that's not the question - it's a hypothetical where you DO know what happens.  Sure, nobody remembers the NIT final four but nobody remembers the 11 seed that got bounced on Thursday afternoon either.

People remember a program as perennial tourney-goers and each invite solidifes that reputation, which in turn, leads to an increased fan base, more revenue, better facilities, better recruits, etc.

Nobody remembers who wins an NIT much less who's in the "NIT Final Four." Honestly, for the life of me, without the aid of the nets, I can't remember who won the NIT last year. 

[Galway Eagle]

But that's not the question - it's a hypothetical where you DO know what happens.  Sure, nobody remembers the NIT final four but nobody remembers the 11 seed that got bounced on Thursday afternoon either.

The bottom line is that saying we're going for 10 straight ncaa appearances sounds a lot better than saying we ended our streak but had a successful run in the NIT

[PGsHeroes32]

Lol idk how this can even be a debate.

The NCAA tourney is the only answer.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lunardi's latest bracketology looks like this.  He did not issue a "Bracket Math" today, so no other contenders.

Last Four Byes

Colorado (18-6; RPI:24)
Minnesota (15-8; RPI:39)
Tennessee (14-9; RPI:50)
BYU (16-9; RPI:45)

Last Four In

Georgetown (15-9; RPI:57)
Providence (16-9; RPI:55)
Florida State (14-10; RPI:64)
West Virginia (15-10; RPI:66)

First Four Out

LSU (15-8; RPI:65)
Missouri (16-7; RPI:48)
Richmond (16-8; RPI:41)
Saint Joe's (16-7; RPI:44)

Next Four Out

Louisiana Tech (19-5; RPI:72)
Clemson (15-8; RPI:68)
Dayton (17-8; RPI:58)
Ole Miss (16-8; RPI:62)

Others In Contention (*Note this is more my list, since Lunardi did not do a Bracket Math today)

Marquette (14-10; RPI:70)
St. John's (15-9; RPI:61)
Oregon (15-8; RPI:42)
Baylor (13-9; RPI:53)
NC State (16-8; RPI: 51)
Indiana State (17-6; RPI:54)
Boise State (14-9; RPI: 59)
Arkansas (15-8; RPI:69)
St Mary's (17-7; RPI:56)
Indiana (14-10; RPI:91)
Maryland (14-11; RPI:76)
Nebraska (13-10; RPI: 63)
Utah (14-7; RPI: 102)


Bubble Action Tonight:

Arkansas @ Missouri
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
St. Johns @ Seton Hall
Colorado @ UCLA
BYU @ Pacific
Utah @ USC
San Diego @ St. Mary's

[Windyplayer]

I could see Seton Hall tripping up St. Johns tonight in Jersey. The Johnnies are looking forward to some homecooking against Gtown and Butler, and Seton Hall has lost 3 of 4 (oddly their one win came @Xavier by 8), looking to turn things around. The Pirates are not going to crawl in a hole like DePaul--too much talent and let's not forget they have won @Gtown, @Providence, and the aforementioned @Xavier. That's impressive.

[Shack]

I could see Seton Hall tripping up St. Johns tonight in Jersey. The Johnnies are looking forward to some homecooking against Gtown and Butler, and Seton Hall has lost 3 of 4 (oddly their one win came @Xavier by 8), looking to turn things around. The Pirates are not going to crawl in a hole like DePaul--too much talent and let's not forget they have won @Gtown, @Providence, and the aforementioned @Xavier. That's impressive.

I was thinking the same thing.  I could see Seton Hall being the key in knocking off the teams around us and helping us to a 3rd place finish.  That 1-4 record at home will definitely even itself out with the talent they have.  My guess is we will be 11-7 which will probably gives us a 60% of getting in. 

[Coleman]

Last Four In

Georgetown (15-9; RPI:57)
Providence (16-9; RPI:55)
Florida State (14-10; RPI:64)
West Virginia (15-10; RPI:66)

First Four Out

LSU (15-8; RPI:65)
Missouri (16-7; RPI:48)
Richmond (16-8; RPI:41)
Saint Joe's (16-7; RPI:44)

Having a real hard time figuring out what the hell Joey Brackets is thinking here. 3 of his "First Four Out" have significantly better RPI than every single one of his "Last Four In".....  although it does favor the Big East so I guess I shouldn't complain

And West Virginia in the field? Right now? Are you kidding me?

[willie warrior]

Having a real hard time figuring out what the hell Joey Brackets is thinking here. 3 of his "First Four Out" have significantly higher RPI than every single one of his "Last Four In".....

West Virginia in the field? Right now? Are you kidding me?

Hey, somebody cited that Brackets has MU on the bubble, justifying that position. So, he must be gospel. Think we need to wait for several more games to start to sort it out. By then we may have 60 teams on the "soft Bubble"

[Golden Avalanche]

The only thing I hold my hat on is that the Big East is third in the RPI.  

Which is why finishing third above a likely NCAA team in Xavier would at least give MU a fair point to whine about when they're not invited.

[willie warrior]

Having a real hard time figuring out what the hell Joey Brackets is thinking here. 3 of his "First Four Out" have significantly better RPI than every single one of his "Last Four In".....  although it does favor the Big East so I guess I shouldn't complain

And West Virginia in the field? Right now? Are you kidding me?

That last 4 in does look suspect. Especially GT--right Wade'sWorld?

[wardle2wade]

Having a real hard time figuring out what the hell Joey Brackets is thinking here. 3 of his "First Four Out" have significantly better RPI than every single one of his "Last Four In".....  although it does favor the Big East so I guess I shouldn't complain

And West Virginia in the field? Right now? Are you kidding me?

Regarding WVU, they just shellacked Iowa State by 25pts on Monday... since it's so fresh, they probably got a bigger than usual bump from that win.  Same could happen to MU down the stretch if we beat Creighton or win at Nova.

[bilsu]

Sweeping Georgetown and Providence would make it hard for the committee to take them ahead of us.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The only thing I hold my hat on is that the Big East is third in the RPI.  

4th

[MUbaseball]

Lunardi had Marquette as one of the 39 teams in consideration for 30 at large spots in the mock selection committee today. It's all over his twitter. Seems we are closer to the field than most thoughts.