For you RPI fans

[Benny B]

Who you beat/who you play...semantics

As far as the committee is concerned... sure, call it semantics if you'd like.

As far as the calculation of RPI is concerned, there is an important distinction between who you beat and who you schedule/play.

[Benny B]

Chicos is correct in saying that RPI does take into consideration who you play (irrespective of the outcome of those games) but does not weight your wins and losses based on who you play.  The only weight given to your wins and losses is where you play (home, away or neutral).

Holy excrement... I just realized I said Chicos was correct about something.  Evidently the cold we're experiencing here in the MKE/CHI area has permeated hell.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Expected RPI 86.6, today we are 88.

It predicts we win 4 of the next 5, with the one loss very tight at St. John's (definitely a winnable game).  Also has Providence at home as barely a win, at Seton Hall a nail biter and home to Xavier a pick 'em.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Today

RPI of 89, expected RPI of 85

Final record prediction of 16-15 and 8-10 in conference.  Though the numbers to get to 9-9 or 10-8 are extremely close.  As an example, we have a much better chance to finish 17-14 than 15-16.

Expected to beat Butler handily
@ Seton Hall is currently a pick 'em
Very slight favorite to beat Xavier

Could be on a 3 game winning streak here if we can get it together.

[willie warrior]

Just checked ESPN's RPI, by Lunardi. MU is 87, which is 7th in BEast.
Villa. 4
Creighton 7
Prov. 36
Xavier 47
GT 62  What about that Wade'sWorld?
St. John's 72
MU 87

Just about spot on to my thoughtful insight, eh WadesWorld. Both GT and St. John's ahead of MU as I stated and you made a half ass attempt to refute. This is as of right now--not 3 weeks ago. So please Wade, check things out before casting aspersions.

[g0lden3agle]

Just checked ESPN's RPI, by Lunardi. MU is 87, which is 7th in BEast.
Villa. 4
Creighton 7
Prov. 36
Xavier 47
GT 62  What about that Wade'sWorld?
St. John's 72
MU 87

Just about spot on to my thoughtful insight, eh WadesWorld. Both GT and St. John's ahead of MU as I stated and you made a half ass attempt to refute. This is as of right now--not 3 weeks ago. So please Wade, check things out before casting aspersions.

Power rankings != RPI

[willie warrior]

Power rankings or RPI. I stand by what I said. MU is about 8th in BEast.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Current RPI is 73

Projected RPI prior to BET, 77

In the seven remaining games, we are supposed to go 4-3 including beating Xavier at home.


Go 7-0, finish at 39 RPI
Go 6-1, with loss at Nova finish with a 45 RPI
Go 5-2, with losses Nova and Creighton, finish with a 54 RPI
Go 5-2, with losses Nova and Providence, finish at 52 RPI
Go 5-2, with losses Nova and G'Town, finish at 55 RPI

Etc, etc

EDIT:  Update to fix record

[g0lden3agle]

Current RPI is 73

Projected RPI prior to BET, 77

In the six remaining games, we are supposed to go 3-3 including beating Xavier at home.


Go 6-0, finish at 39 RPI
Go 5-1, with loss at Nova finish with a 45 RPI
Go 4-2, with losses Nova and Creighton, finish with a 54 RPI
Go 4-2, with losses Nova and Providence, finish at 52 RPI
Go 4-2, with losses Nova and G'Town, finish at 55 RPI

Etc, etc

I know we've discussed this before but too lazy to look it up.  Historically, where does an rpi in the low to mid 50's put us in terms of statistical chances of making the tourney?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I know we've discussed this before but too lazy to look it up.  Historically, where does an rpi in the low to mid 50's put us in terms of statistical chances of making the tourney?

Last year

Valpo 59, made it as an AQ
Tennessee 58, didn't make it
New Mexico State 57, made it as an AQ
Kentucky had a 56 RPI, didn't make it. 
UMass a 55 RPI, nope. 
LA Tech 54, nope.
Cal was at 53, they made it as a 12 seed. 
Bucknell 52, made it but they were an AQ. 
Nova 51, made it as a 9. 

[MarquetteDano]

Last year

Valpo 59, made it as an AQ
Tennessee 58, didn't make it
New Mexico State 57, made it as an AQ
Kentucky had a 56 RPI, didn't make it. 
UMass a 55 RPI, nope. 
LA Tech 54, nope.
Cal was at 53, they made it as a 12 seed. 
Bucknell 52, made it but they were an AQ. 
Nova 51, made it as a 9. 

Looking at this and prior years, you really need to be under 50.  If we go 5-2, I really think we need to win two games in the BET.  I have to think that would put our RPI under 50.

[copious1218]

Current RPI is 73

Projected RPI prior to BET, 77

In the six remaining games, we are supposed to go 4-3 including beating Xavier at home.


Go 7-0, finish at 39 RPI
Go 6-1, with loss at Nova finish with a 45 RPI
Go 5-2, with losses Nova and Creighton, finish with a 54 RPI
Go 5-2, with losses Nova and Providence, finish at 52 RPI
Go 5-2, with losses Nova and G'Town, finish at 55 RPI

Etc, etc

EDIT:  Update to fix record

Chicos,

If we go 6-1 but our loss is to Providence, how does that shake out.  I'm trying to determine if losing to Nova or Providence would be better for us.  Losing to Prov. means we got the Nova "scalp" for the tourney, but I would think losing to Nova would be better for our RPI?

[Coleman]

Last year

Valpo 59, made it as an AQ
Tennessee 58, didn't make it
New Mexico State 57, made it as an AQ
Kentucky had a 56 RPI, didn't make it. 
UMass a 55 RPI, nope. 
LA Tech 54, nope.
Cal was at 53, they made it as a 12 seed. 
Bucknell 52, made it but they were an AQ. 
Nova 51, made it as a 9. 

So its probably 50/50 AT BEST, but more than likely not in.

Need to get under 50 to feel good

[MerrittsMustache]

Last year

Valpo 59, made it as an AQ
Tennessee 58, didn't make it
New Mexico State 57, made it as an AQ
Kentucky had a 56 RPI, didn't make it. 
UMass a 55 RPI, nope. 
LA Tech 54, nope.
Cal was at 53, they made it as a 12 seed. 
Bucknell 52, made it but they were an AQ. 
Nova 51, made it as a 9. 

What were those teams' best wins and worst losses? Where did they finish in their conference? How good was their conference?*

There's more that goes into selections than just RPI. Getting that RPI into at least the 50s is a good start, but MU needs a big win or two to add to their resume.


(*-All rhetorical questions. Not an attempt to call you out, Chicos)

[jesmu84]

Looking at this and prior years, you really need to be under 50.  If we go 5-2, I really think we need to win two games in the BET.  I have to think that would put our RPI under 50.

Do BET games factor into RPI?

[MerrittsMustache]

Chicos,

If we go 6-1 but our loss is to Providence, how does that shake out.  I'm trying to determine if losing to Nova or Providence would be better for us.  Losing to Prov. means we got the Nova "scalp" for the tourney, but I would think losing to Nova would be better for our RPI?

According to RPI Wizard, 6-1 with a loss to PC also leads to an RPI of 45. However, the win at Nova would be viewed much more positively than a loss at PC would be viewed negatively.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Do BET games factor into RPI?

Yes

[ChicosBailBonds]

What were those teams' best wins and worst losses? Where did they finish in their conference? How good was their conference?*

There's more that goes into selections than just RPI. Getting that RPI into at least the 50s is a good start, but MU needs a big win or two to add to their resume.


(*-All rhetorical questions. Not an attempt to call you out, Chicos)

No problem, I don't feel called out.  To me, the quality of the conference is already factored in because of the strength of schedule.  How good your conference is will pay off by playing better teams and influence your RPI rating accordingly.

I think there is a danger of people talking about where they finish in conference.  Obviously, if you finish 1st or 2nd in the Big East, you're going to get in.  But there are teams in power conferences that have finished in a spot in their conference where a lower finished team has gone and they haven't.  One can always make the argument that team X finished 4th so they should go ahead of team Y that finished 5th in the same conference, but the reality is that doesn't always happen so we need to be careful there. 

Here's an example happening right now in our own league IF selections were today. We're in 4th, Providence is in 5th.  Yet, you look at how they stack up, Providence would get the nod...here's Jerry Palm's comparison tool  http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MARQET/PROV

Providence has wins over Creighton, Xavier...they also beat Georgetown, St. Johns (away), plus they played a much tougher out of conference schedule.

Again, that's if the selection was today, but you get the idea.

[MerrittsMustache]

No problem, I don't feel called out.  To me, the quality of the conference is already factored in because of the strength of schedule.  How good your conference is will pay off by playing better teams and influence your RPI rating accordingly.

I think there is a danger of people talking about where they finish in conference.  Obviously, if you finish 1st or 2nd in the Big East, you're going to get in.  But there are teams in power conferences that have finished in a spot in their conference where a lower finished team has gone and they haven't.  One can always make the argument that team X finished 4th so they should go ahead of team Y that finished 5th in the same conference, but the reality is that doesn't always happen so we need to be careful there. 

Here's an example happening right now in our own league IF selections were today. We're in 4th, Providence is in 5th.  Yet, you look at how they stack up, Providence would get the nod...here's Jerry Palm's comparison tool  http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison/MARQET/PROV

Providence has wins over Creighton, Xavier...they also beat Georgetown, St. Johns (away), plus they played a much tougher out of conference schedule.

Again, that's if the selection was today, but you get the idea.

Good points. I worded that poorly. I should have said, "Did they win their conference but not the conf tournament?" (as was the case with La Tech).

[ChicosBailBonds]

What were those teams' best wins and worst losses? Where did they finish in their conference? How good was their conference?*

Needed some time to look this part up, only did a few...walking into meetings rest of the day.

Kentucky's best wins were Louisville, Tennessee, Missouri, Ole Miss, Providence, Vandy.  Worst losses...none to teams 100+.  Finished 12-6 in conference. 7-9 against top 100.   Finished tied for 2nd in the SEC....Ole Miss also finished 2nd, but they went.  Missouri finished in 5th, they went to the NCAAs. Basically, UK had a better profile than we have as of today, things can change.  UK also had the big injury.

Tennessee best wins were over Xavier and Virginia...also beat LSU, Ole Miss and Wake.  They had one "bad loss" to Texas A&M who was above 100 RPI.  9-10 vs top 100.  Finished tied for 5th in the SEC with Missouri (who went to NCAAs). 

UMass best wins over BYU, New Mexico, Providence, LaSalle, LSU.  No bad losses to a team over 100.  8-9 vs top 100.  Finished 6th in the conference with Xavier.


If you look at our profile right now.  We have an outside shot at the 50's for an RPI.  We're 6-13 vs top 100.  4th place in the conference.  Opportunities ahead

[ChicosBailBonds]

MU at 74 after yesterday. 

[Coleman]

MU at 74 after yesterday. 

What's the predicted final rpi?

[ChicosBailBonds]

What's the predicted final rpi?

72.9

[Coleman]

72.9

Thanks.

That ain't gonna cut it

[ChicosBailBonds]

79 today