For you RPI fans

[ChicosBailBonds]

Still to early IMO, but I know there are those that like to follow it.

We have a 109 rating right now.

Expected to finish with a 63.6 rating, which would put us in the 60th position if it came true.

18-13 record and a record of 7-12 against top 100 RPI (3-9 against top 100)

Currently picked for 6th in the Big East, but it is very close between 4th, 5th and 6th...all very tightly packed with Xavier and Butler.

Big East is 4th right now and expected to finish 4th.  Villanova is currently tracking to finish 3rd in the country (remember all the he can't coach threads    )


One silver lining, our "over rated vs RPI" number is -45.4 which puts it near the bottom in the bottom of the country.  What that means is that the likihood of our improvement in the RPI is good.  If you have a high over rated number it means it is artificially high and will come back down to earth most likely.  We are on the inverse, which is why we are sitting at 109 right now and expected to finish in the mid 60's.

Hopefully the staff and the team can get this righted quickly. 

[Jay Bee]

What's key to point out is that the projections above assume (among a million other things) that MU goes 10-8 in conference. Finishing 11-7 and they could be around 50 and potentially in "comfortable" (relative to MU some years) shape. I think 11 conference wins in the regular season is what to hope for. Less than that and there's work to do in the conference tourney. I think 11-7 plus a win in the BEast tourney gets 'em in. Very doable.

Nova is playing very well (especially defense). James Bell, Jamail's teammate at Montverde, is now a senior and dealt with injuries early on. Former MU target JayVaughn Pinkston is now a junior and draws contact like no other. Some of it is real.

Hilliard and Hart are playing out of their minds and will trend down as the year progresses.

Small team that's been dominant on the boards. Two impressive wins - Kansas, when Jo Jo Embiid & Tarik Black combined for 20 minutes and KU shot 40.7% eFG.... and then Iowa in OT.. White, Gesell, McCabe all fouling out for the Hawkeyes.

Nova's good... if you want to crown 'em... go ahead.. but... just you wait!

MU has zero bad losses. Disappointing start, but a lot of bball to play.

Hate to throw it out there, but... if* Duane came back and MU played better with him, the committee could and likely would heavily consider who MU is in March vs. who they were without a healthy Duane. That's another factor that could help to forgive some of the team's early sins (i.e., losses).

[ChicosBailBonds]

I agree that Duane is a wild card, but I also don't want to overdue it with him.  Buzz doesn't play freshmen much to begin with and as good as the kid is supposed to be, most kids struggle first year.  I hope he turns out to be the second coming, but we have to be fair to him.

On your other point, you are absolutely correct...11-7 pushes it up a notch (to 54.6), so on and so forth.  Yesterday hurt because it was only the second game this year in the RPI we lost and we weren't supposed to. 

[Jay Bee]

I agree that Duane is a wild card, but I also don't want to overdue it with him.  Buzz doesn't play freshmen much to begin with and as good as the kid is supposed to be, most kids struggle first year.  I hope he turns out to be the second coming, but we have to be fair to him.

On your other point, you are absolutely correct...11-7 pushes it up a notch (to 54.6), so on and so forth.  Yesterday hurt because it was only the second game this year in the RPI we lost and we weren't supposed to. 

1) Duane - I am fine with letting him redshirt this season if he's OK with it. A lot goes into that type of a decision and I am OK either way. I'd expect a bumpy early road for him - more so than most MU fans seem to (that's why in May I said Deonte & JJJ were the newcomers that will make the biggest impact this season) - just pointing out that from a selection committee's point of view it could be a factor that helps MU.

2) Overdo vs. overdue

3) You mention 54.6. Since you're referring to a specific prediction model I think it would be appropriate to include what the 54.6 means (i.e., a projected RPI in the high 40's at the end of the regular season).

[Otule's Glass Eye]

If this team turns things around, outperforms in conference play, and gets to around 20-25 wins, then I think we get in as a low-seeded tourney team, and with the way things have started out this year, I wouldn't be disappointed with at all.

[mu_hilltopper]

25 wins?  Yes, we shall win 18 of our final 19 games!

[keefe]

I agree that Duane is a wild card, but I also don't want to overdue it with him. 

Library books or Netflix?

[ChicosBailBonds]

1) Duane - I am fine with letting him redshirt this season if he's OK with it. A lot goes into that type of a decision and I am OK either way. I'd expect a bumpy early road for him - more so than most MU fans seem to (that's why in May I said Deonte & JJJ were the newcomers that will make the biggest impact this season) - just pointing out that from a selection committee's point of view it could be a factor that helps MU.

2) Overdo vs. overdue

3) You mention 54.6. Since you're referring to a specific prediction model I think it would be appropriate to include what the 54.6 means (i.e., a projected RPI in the high 40's at the end of the regular season).

Thank you for the correction...it was long overdue   

The 54.6 is the rating number predicted, but not the ranking.  For example, today we are predicted to finish with a 63.6 rating but a ranking of 60...meaning the rating of 63.6 would be the 60th best ranking.

If we finish at 54.6, we would be roughly around 48 to 50 ranking....I haven't gone through each scenario, but that's a ballpark number .

[ChicosBailBonds]

Library books or Netflix?

I hit the sauce early...Cowboys game, eggnog and Jack, and I was just being stupid...it happens. 

[barfolomew]

Nova's good... if you want to crown 'em... go ahead.. but... just you wait!

They will be who we think they are.
Hopefully, we don't let 'em off the hook.

[ChicosBailBonds]

We finally passed UW-milwaukee up....so there is a silver lining.

We are 107, they are 108. 

[MarquetteDano]

We finally passed UW-milwaukee up....so there is a silver lining.

We are 107, they are 108. 

Can you imagine if somehow they finish ahead of us?  Cries of us dodging them again, selling out the BMO playing them, and how its good for Wisconsin would not be too far away.

[chapman]

RPI Forecast shows a final prediction of 65.4 on 18-13 (10-8) and 3-9 vs. the top 50.  Would guess that's 2-3 wins shy of what's needed to sneak in.

[MuMark]

Big East is the 3rd rated conference at the end of the non conference season....http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/conferencerpi

[ChicosBailBonds]

Currently sit at 93

Expected RPI finish is 81.2 rating which would be 77th best overall

Obviously that expected RPI will not get us into the tournament so we have to win games we aren't supposed to.


Here is what the RPI predicts for us...those in bold are predicted be losses, but some are very close.  For example, we are given a 47% chance to beat Butler...almost a toss up.


1-18   Butler (104.0)           BE   A   0-0      47%   -0.8
1-20   Georgetown (43.8)   BE   A   0-0      33%   -5.0
1-25   Villanova (7.0)           BE   H   0-0      34%   -4.7
1-30    Providence (80.2)        BE   H   0-0      67%   5.0
2-1   St. John's (89.2)           BE   A   0-0      44%   -1.7
2-4    Butler (104.0)           BE   H   0-0      71%   6.2
2-11    Seton Hall (144.9)   BE   A   0-0      57%   2.1
2-15    Xavier (39.2)           BE   H   0-0      56%   1.6
2-19   Creighton (16.5)           BE   H   0-0      38%   -3.5
2-22    DePaul (147.1)           BE   A   0-0      65%   4.4
2-27    Georgetown (43.8)   BE   H   0-0      57%   1.9
3-2   Villanova (7.0)           BE   A   0-0      15%   -11.6
3-4    Providence (80.2)           BE   A   0-0      43%   -2.0
3-8    St. John's (89.2)           BE   H   0-0      68%   5.2

[Lennys Tap]

Currently sit at 93

Expected RPI finish is 81.2 rating which would be 77th best overall

Obviously that expected RPI will not get us into the tournament so we have to win games we aren't supposed to.


Here is what the RPI predicts for us...those in bold are predicted be losses, but some are very close.  For example, we are given a 47% chance to beat Butler...almost a toss up.


1-18   Butler (104.0)           BE   A   0-0      47%   -0.8
1-20   Georgetown (43.8)   BE   A   0-0      33%   -5.0
1-25   Villanova (7.0)           BE   H   0-0      34%   -4.7
1-30    Providence (80.2)        BE   H   0-0      67%   5.0
2-1   St. John's (89.2)           BE   A   0-0      44%   -1.7
2-4    Butler (104.0)           BE   H   0-0      71%   6.2
2-11    Seton Hall (144.9)   BE   A   0-0      57%   2.1
2-15    Xavier (39.2)           BE   H   0-0      56%   1.6
2-19   Creighton (16.5)           BE   H   0-0      38%   -3.5
2-22    DePaul (147.1)           BE   A   0-0      65%   4.4
2-27    Georgetown (43.8)   BE   H   0-0      57%   1.9
3-2   Villanova (7.0)           BE   A   0-0      15%   -11.6
3-4    Providence (80.2)           BE   A   0-0      43%   -2.0
3-8    St. John's (89.2)           BE   H   0-0      68%   5.2

Have to agree that 9-9, 17-14 doesn't make it. Even 10-8, 18-13 is probably a no go. 11-7, 19-12 is probably on the bubble.

[Coleman]

The conference is still the 3rd best in the nation

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

[willie warrior]

If this team turns things around, outperforms in conference play, and gets to around 20-25 wins, then I think we get in as a low-seeded tourney team, and with the way things have started out this year, I wouldn't be disappointed with at all.

To get to 25 wins, we would have to win all remaining regular season games and one in BE Tourney. Where do you get your weed?

[willie warrior]

We finally passed UW-milwaukee up....so there is a silver lining.

We are 107, they are 108. 

Now that is a stat that just oozes confidence.

[Lennys Tap]

Now that is a stat that just oozes confidence.

It's also a stat that's several weeks old.

[Hards Alumni]

Have to agree that 9-9, 17-14 doesn't make it. Even 10-8, 18-13 is probably a no go. 11-7, 19-12 is probably on the bubble.

Sounds about right.  19-12 is probably NIT.

[jsglow]

We have 3 road games that we'll need to win above and beyond what's predicted.  @Butler, @St.John's, @Providence.  Do that and 12 conference wins is not out of the question.  With a decent performance at the Garden, we'd dance.  It starts this Saturday.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Currently sit at 93

Expected RPI finish is 81.2 rating which would be 77th best overall

Obviously that expected RPI will not get us into the tournament so we have to win games we aren't supposed to.


Here is what the RPI predicts for us...those in bold are predicted be losses, but some are very close.  For example, we are given a 47% chance to beat Butler...almost a toss up.


1-18   Butler (104.0)           BE   A   0-0      47%   -0.8
1-20   Georgetown (43.8)   BE   A   0-0      33%   -5.0
1-25   Villanova (7.0)           BE   H   0-0      34%   -4.7
1-30    Providence (80.2)        BE   H   0-0      67%   5.0
2-1   St. John's (89.2)           BE   A   0-0      44%   -1.7
2-4    Butler (104.0)           BE   H   0-0      71%   6.2
2-11    Seton Hall (144.9)   BE   A   0-0      57%   2.1
2-15    Xavier (39.2)           BE   H   0-0      56%   1.6
2-19   Creighton (16.5)           BE   H   0-0      38%   -3.5
2-22    DePaul (147.1)           BE   A   0-0      65%   4.4
2-27    Georgetown (43.8)   BE   H   0-0      57%   1.9
3-2   Villanova (7.0)           BE   A   0-0      15%   -11.6
3-4    Providence (80.2)           BE   A   0-0      43%   -2.0
3-8    St. John's (89.2)           BE   H   0-0      68%   5.2

Good stuff. I still like our odds. I think winning @But, @SJU, and @PROV are all very doable. Home against Creighton isn't out of the question either. I think we will get better as the season goes on. Others may suffer injuries or lose players for other reasons.

[Mu2323]

There is no reason to think we cant go undefeated at home.

[Wojo'sMojo]

There is no reason to think we cant go undefeated at home.

There are a lot of reasons to think we can't go undefeated at home. We barely squeaked by Seton Hall for crying out loud. I enjoy your optimism but that statement is pure homerism.