ESPN Team Preview: Marquette

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9682763/2013-14-college-basketball-preview-marquette-golden-eagles

2013-14 Big East Projected Standings
1. Creighton | 2. Georgetown | 3. Marquette | 4. Villanova | 5. St. John's | 6. Butler | 7. Providence | 8. Xavier | 9. Seton Hall | 10. DePaul
Links to every conference

Marquette Golden Eagles
2012-13: 26-9 (14-4)
In-conference offense: 1.07 points per possession (1st)
In-conference defense: 0.99 points allowed per possession (8th)

Coming off an Elite Eight run and a share of the regular season conference title, there are many who favor the Golden Eagles to claim the crown in the reborn Big East. Those who do must be banking on the acumen of head coach Buzz Williams to extract every ounce of ability from a roster that doesn't feature any obvious NBA-level talent. How else can you explain such optimism around a team that loses Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Trent Lockett -- Marquette's top three players in terms of minutes per game last season and team leaders in scoring (Blue, 14.8 points per game), playmaking (Cadougan, 3.8 assists) and rebounding (Lockett, 5.1). The trio also accounted for 47.8 percent of Marquette's points in 2012-13, with Blue contributing over 21 percent on his own.


Projected starting lineup
Pos.   Name   Year
C Chris Otule Sr.
F Jamil Wilson Sr.
F Steve Taylor Jr.
G Todd Mayo Jr.
G Derrick Wilson Jr.

All of that isn't to say the Golden Eagles' departures form some kind of irreplaceable trio, but it's a high bar that Williams' crew will need to clear in order to compete for the conference title.

The expectation is that junior Todd Mayo will slide into the starting lineup to replace Blue, but the 6-foot-3 guard will need to refine his game if he wants to improve his offensive rating of 99.9 and earn more than the 22.9 percent of available minutes he saw in 2012-13. (That's certainly possible; Blue himself jumped from an ORtg of 95.6 in 2011-12 to 104.2 last season.)

Point guard is another concern. Turnovers were a problem last season (20.9 TO percentage, by far Marquette's worst mark under Williams), and there doesn't seem to be an obvious replacement for Cadougan. If you're going to bet on a name, though, bet on the Wilson exacta. Junior Derrick Wilson flaunted an assist rate of 22.3 in relief of Cadougan a season ago (though he muted that mark with a 23.7 TO percentage and shot under 30 percent from inside -- yes, inside -- the arc). That leaves a lot of upward mobility for freshman Duane Wilson, who could grow into the role over time -- especially if he can continue his ludicrous 55 percent clip from beyond the arc (not a typo) posted in his final high school season.

Production lost to college basketball's roster churn is seldom made up for in a one-to-one exchange, though. It's far more likely that the minutes and offensive contributions of the departed trio will be spread around and primarily picked up by an increased role for senior Jamil Wilson (110.4 ORtg in 2012-13; 36.0 3-point percentage) and the free throw manufacturing line that is Davante Gardner. Gardner drew 6.7 fouls per 40 minutes a season ago, and converted 83.5 percent of his 176 foul shots. It's a combination that should make Gardner the nation's most potent foul line force in the season ahead.

But Gardner must push beyond some limitations. First and foremost, Marquette will need its big man to improve his endurance -- and defense -- so he can see more than the 52.9 percent of available minutes he played in 2012-13. Part of that stemmed from the positional split with Chris Otule, who will return for a sixth season of eligibility after being granted a waiver by the NCAA. Otule is the quicker and more formidable defender of the two (6.7 block percentage in 2012-13) and at a minimum will provide effective minutes while Gardner takes a blow. If the two can somehow play in conjunction, however, it would give the Golden Eagles one of the more effective tandems in the conference.

The big men could become even more potent with the ball if they're given some more room to operate. The Golden Eagles are in serious need of a floor spacer. The team collectively shot a dismal 29.6 percent from behind the arc last season (323rd in the nation) and return just one player (Jamil Wilson) who shot over 30 percent from deep. Aforementioned sniper Duane Wilson should help in this regard, however.

Fellow freshman JaJuan Johnson (No. 27, ESPN 100) could also give the Golden Eagles a lift, as he helps headline a recruiting class that ranked No. 11 according to ESPN's RecruitingNation. Meanwhile, 2012 top recruit Steve Taylor could build on a freshman season that saw him brought along slowly.

The cupboard is far from bare in Milwaukee, but it could take master chef Williams a few months to properly mix his ingredients. If this team matures in time for March, though, Marquette figures to once again be an NCAA tournament team no one will want to face.

Projected 2013-14 conference finish: 3rd

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

I automatically disregard this article for two reasons. One its ESPN and two, they have Steve Taylor listed as a junior. Quality reporting there...

[GGGG]

Not sure why the ESPN thing should matter - I thought it was a pretty balanced article that hits on that MU has a lot of talent, but it needs to find a way to mesh together.  We have been saying that for awhile. 

And I bet they screwed up Taylor because he is literally "Steve Taylor, Jr."

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I automatically disregard this article for two reasons. One its ESPN and two, they have Steve Taylor listed as a junior. Quality reporting there...

I didn't even notice the Steve Taylor thing, good call.

I'm surprised we are picked below Georgetown, even with Whittington going down. I think an argument can be made for Creighton being the favorite. None of the things the article said were false, but they certainly put a certain tone on things.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I automatically disregard this article for two reasons. One its ESPN and two, they have Steve Taylor listed as a junior. Quality reporting there...

Well he is a Jr., just not a Junior.

[warriorchick]

And they obviously haven't seen our new lean, mean version of Davante, either.

[Galway Eagle]

Finally something to get riled up about!!!

[MerrittsMustache]

I automatically disregard this article for two reasons. One its ESPN and two, they have Steve Taylor listed as a junior. Quality reporting there...

Sultan nailed the response to this. Besides, they mention him being a soph later in the piece. Clearly just a misprint.

[Chicos' Buzz Scandal Countdown]

"a roster that doesn't feature any obvious NBA-level talent"?

Are you kidding me? Jamil & JJJ at least (from raw talent level)... I don't understand how even a non-MU fan wouldn't see them as being NBA-level talent.

Agree that JJJ is unproven (obviously)

[Badgerhater]

Losing Crowder and DJO impacted the team far more than will the loss of Cadougan, Blue and Lockett.  The team had to completely revamp its style and pace of play.

One thing has been proven, Buzz will find a style that maximizes the talents and minimizes the inefficiencies of his team.

[tower912]

MU is going into the season with unknown quantities in the backcourt.    If DeWilson and Mayo have improved quite a bit, MU is solid.    If DuWilson or Dawson is ready to be a D1 starter from day 1, MU is solid.    If neither of these are the case, MU is going to struggle, especially early.    I disagree with ESPN's team preview, but I understand their reasoning.  

[GGGG]

"a roster that doesn't feature any obvious NBA-level talent"?

Are you kidding me? Jamil & JJJ at least (from raw talent level)... I don't understand how even a non-MU fan wouldn't see them as being NBA-level talent.

Agree that JJJ is unproven (obviously)

I don't think Jamil has "obvious" NBA talent.  He has an NBA body, but he doesn't have the foot-speed or outside shot of most small forwards.  

[Galway Eagle]

Losing Crowder and DJO impacted the team far more than will the loss of Cadougan, Blue and Lockett.  The team had to completely revamp its style and pace of play.

One thing has been proven, Buzz will find a style that maximizes the talents and minimizes the inefficiencies of his team.

couldn't agree more the loss of the Big 3 and the Dynamic Duo was wayyy tougher than this loss.  I love Lockett but the dude was on the team for a year, not like he was a guy who grew up with the team and year in year out was an impact player. 

[Aughnanure]

Not sure why the ESPN thing should matter - I thought it was a pretty balanced article that hits on that MU has a lot of talent, but it needs to find a way to mesh together.  We have been saying that for awhile.  

This great analysis can apply to nearly every college basketball team. OMG, a college team has new players and lost some players? They're going to have to find a way "to play together" and "as a team".

EDIT: This article at least goes in-depth detail at least about this, but this kind of transition is normal.

[willie warrior]

"a roster that doesn't feature any obvious NBA-level talent"?

Are you kidding me? Jamil & JJJ at least (from raw talent level)... I don't understand how even a non-MU fan wouldn't see them as being NBA-level talent.

Agree that JJJ is unproven (obviously)

And don't forget that Otule is the next Roy Hibbert.

[Aughnanure]

couldn't agree more the loss of the Big 3 and the Dynamic Duo was wayyy tougher than this loss.  I love Lockett but the dude was on the team for a year, not like he was a guy who grew up with the team and year in year out was an impact player. 

This. Plus the numbers that Juan and DeWilson put up bear striking resemblance to those of Lockett and Cadougan if you increase minutes and keep their averages/minute. Wilson loses slightly on offense, but much better on D (and Cadougan scored, what, 6 pts a game coming into a last year?). Juan defense is poor inside but on the perimiter I think he can do some damage.

Just annoys me that in reality, we really on lost Blue, but now every other loss is treated as significant. And everyone forgets Lockett was frustrating in the beginning-mid part of the year. Amazing what additional playing time can yield.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

They talk about our losses (Blue, Junior and Trent) and then talk about our turnover problems. Not sure of the exact stats, but it seems our biggest turnover transgressors are gone.

Whatever...previews mean nothing. We are going to be good.

[MerrittsMustache]

couldn't agree more the loss of the Big 3 and the Dynamic Duo was wayyy tougher than this loss.  I love Lockett but the dude was on the team for a year, not like he was a guy who grew up with the team and year in year out was an impact player.  

One-year players? Who needs 'em? I mean, Marquette was able to replace one-year wonder Robert Jackson with Davante Gardner just 8 short years later.

[boyonthedock]

Meh. I don't see a reason to get up in arms about one of the few previews that DON'T pick MU to win conference. There is plenty of MU kool-aid drinking out there in the media, and I just like reading anybody thats writing about Marquette.

[Skitch]

"a roster that doesn't feature any obvious NBA-level talent"?

Are you kidding me? Jamil & JJJ at least (from raw talent level)... I don't understand how even a non-MU fan wouldn't see them as being NBA-level talent.

Agree that JJJ is unproven (obviously)

Was Vander considered an "obvious" NBA talent at the start of last season?  If not, how is this year any different from the last?

[GooooMarquette]

Was Vander considered an "obvious" NBA talent at the start of last season?  If not, how is this year any different from the last?

No, and it isn't.

We weren't expected to share the BE title and get to the Elite Eight last year...so it's fine by me if ESPN doesn't expect that from us this year either....

[bilsu]

How many teams lost their leading rebounder that only averaged 5.1 rebounds? How many teams lost their starting point guard who only average 3.8 assists? Even 14.8 points per game for a leading scorer is not great.
We did lose a lot of experience. Each of these players brought toughness and made important contributions to the team, but how hard can it be to replace 5.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 14.8 points. How good this team is in March will depend a lot on how the new players develop and having the luck to stay away from injuries. However, I believe this team at the start of the season is better than last year's team at the start of the season. Remember last year at the start Mayo was suspended, Lockett was learning a new system and Otule basically was dragging his leg up and down the court.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Losing Crowder and DJO impacted the team far more than will the loss of Cadougan, Blue and Lockett.  The team had to completely revamp its style and pace of play.

One thing has been proven, Buzz will find a style that maximizes the talents and minimizes the inefficiencies of his team.

It's a guards game, never underestimate the impact of solid guards.  The current crop is unproven.  Lots of upside, lots of unknowns.  That being said, our guards last year at times were not very consistent for my taste.  Fair article IMO.

[raul]

I thought Buzz was planning a 3 guard offense? McKay or Anderson would be my guess to start instead of Taylor if they do go the 2 guard route. 

[Jay Bee]

I don't usually read previews like this, but... let's see if I can be as picky as some of you. At first glance it looks like the writer may be a stat-grabber (can pull stats... but does he understand them?).

The expectation is that junior Todd Mayo will slide into the starting lineup to replace Blue, but the 6-foot-3 guard will need to refine his game if he wants to improve his offensive rating of 99.9 and earn more than the 22.9 percent of available minutes he saw in 2012-13.

Mayo played around 32% of available minutes when you exclude the 10 games he was suspended for. Relative to his ORtg, consideration of the opponents missed (some real clunkers, but also excellent defenses like uw-madison & Florida) would also be worthwhile. Mayo did very well against weaker teams (below .500 teams = Mayo with a 115 ORtg; same for RPI < 100 teams). Significant upside to Mayo's numbers is achievable.

Point guard is another concern. Turnovers were a problem last season (20.9 TO percentage, by far Marquette's worst mark under Williams), and there doesn't seem to be an obvious replacement for Cadougan.

Point guard is certainly a concern for this team; however, PG performance relative to team TO% isn't the primary performance indicator I'll be looking at.

Buzz has brought in JUCO's who have valued the ball. Jae Crowder, DJO, Jimmy Butler.. they all played major minutes and had relatively low TO%'s (with Jimmy and Jae being remarkable). Turnovers at PG have been a problem with Cadougan, plain and simple. His best year of his 3 full seasons was last year and it was still brutal (26%).

The uptick in TO% last year was more a function replacing tons of Jae's minutes (10% TO%) with some from Lockett (24-25%).

With Cadougan and Lockett now gone, MU could withstand a "normal" freshman year from a Duane Wilson so long as normal progression (improvement) is seen from others. I'd be more worried about guys like Mayo, Anderson and some of the other wings being strong with the ball than the PG position. There is plenty of room to improve at the point with regard to TO%.

The big men could become even more potent with the ball if they're given some more room to operate. The Golden Eagles are in serious need of a floor spacer. The team collectively shot a dismal 29.6 percent from behind the arc last season (323rd in the nation) and return just one player (Jamil Wilson) who shot over 30 percent from deep. Aforementioned sniper Duane Wilson should help in this regard, however.

When projecting 2013-14, I see 3FG shooting as a plus. First, the percentage should improve with the weak comparable. Top 3FGA man a year ago was Van. He made some amazing shots (prayers) at very important times, but was still only 30.3% on the year. Will MU be able to hit an NCAA average ~34% of their 3FGA's? I don't think you can feel comfortable with that type of expectation, but a moderate to significant improvement from a year ago seems likely.

Duane - in EYBL play he wasn't nearly as good as 55%. That number still seems awfully high to me, but perhaps it's accurate. Nonetheless, I think if he's at 34% or better I'm happy.

MU should shoot 3FG's more often than we've seen in the past 3 seasons. That will add volatility to game outcomes (can assist with winning tough games... also can result in losing "easy" games if there's an off night shooting). With some opponents expected to shoot a ton of 3's against MU, fans have to be ready for both some rough nights and some sizable wins... "new day begins at midnight" thinking will be as important as ever.

I like Marquette's chances to improve on their eFG% in 2013-14. Shot selection but the youngsters will be important. Nothing wrong with working to get Davante, Jamil & Chris good opportunities vs. launching difficult FGA's... but it's fun to shoot, especially for young cats.

I need dudes to rebound and play defense like crazy, opponents to not shoot well from 3FG range... and then I think things will come together nicely. Just may take some time to get the minute distribution situated. Lots of guys who have a chance to play - hopefully it remains healthy competition that results in improvement by all.

Haven't seen John Daw play much since the summer of 2012, but at that time he certainly stood out. Curious as to what Buzz and staff are able to do with him. Hopeful that he's a kid who surprises people over the next few years.

Golden Eagles

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