2013 NFC North/NFL Thread

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Getting a top-notch QB is REALLY hard to do.

However, you have to really put things in the context of value.

If you can trade Cutler and get a lot of value, you might be able to draft or trade for a young QB, and ride with McCown until he sucks. (maybe next year? maybe 2 years)

This isn't to say that he's as good as Jay (he's not), but if you can have McCown, and decent young QB, and a couple of young free agents instead of Jay, then that might be worth it.

But, you have to get enough in return for Jay. If you can't get much, then they might have to suck it up and sign him. QB purgatory is a tough place to escape.

[Dish]

Getting a top-notch QB is REALLY hard to do.

However, you have to really put things in the context of value.

If you can trade Cutler and get a lot of value, you might be able to draft or trade for a young QB, and ride with McCown until he sucks. (maybe next year? maybe 2 years)

This isn't to say that he's as good as Jay (he's not), but if you can have McCown, and decent young QB, and a couple of young free agents instead of Jay, then that might be worth it.

But, you have to get enough in return for Jay. If you can't get much, then they might have to suck it up and sign him. QB purgatory is a tough place to escape.

Totally agree. I think what needs to be figured out though is if Trestman's system, with those WR's and Forte, is that system capable of sustaining McCown (or someone similar)? Cutler will be on the wrong side of 30 with this next contract. Is your short term window to win better with McCown and cash to spend? Possibly.

[MU B2002]

Per Emery - he did an outstanding job building the O-Line, but this off-season will tell us everything about him. Obviously, he has to decide about cutler (I'd be shocked at a long-term contract), but he also has to re-build a brutally awful defense that could lose Peppers, Tillman and Jenkins.

He was put in an awful place by the previous regime. Tillman is 33 and injury prone. Jenkins is 30 - they need him but is he worth a big contract at that age. And while Briggs is under contract, approaching his mid-30s, we will start to see a decline.

Other than O-Line and receivers, the entire team needs to be re-built. Even RB as Forte approaches 30 and it's easy to look at history and see when RBs start to decline.

Facts:

Tim Jennings.  Not Jenkins.

And your injury prone line about Tillman is wrong. He has been in the league 11 years and has 2 seasons where he didn't play at least 14 games: 16, 8, 15, 14, 15, 15, 15, 16, 16, 16, 8(This season).

[ChicosBailBonds]

How 'bout them 'Boys?

Same as it ever was.  .500 record over the last 17 years.  An owner that won't fire himself as GM.  It's a lot of fun.  The days of me working as a kid at Cowboys training camp in Thousand Oaks with Tom Landry, Staubach, Dorsett, White, Too Tall, Martin, etc.....long long time ago. 

[SaintPaulWarrior]

Sorry if it was posted already.  Bears Eagles flexed to Sunday night Dec. 22nd.

[MerrittsMustache]

Same as it ever was.  .500 record over the last 17 years.  An owner that won't fire himself as GM.  It's a lot of fun.  The days of me working as a kid at Cowboys training camp in Thousand Oaks with Tom Landry, Staubach, Dorsett, White, Too Tall, Martin, etc.....long long time ago. 

It's always about Chicos.

[MerrittsMustache]

Totally agree. I think what needs to be figured out though is if Trestman's system, with those WR's and Forte, is that system capable of sustaining McCown (or someone similar)? Cutler will be on the wrong side of 30 with this next contract. Is your short term window to win better with McCown and cash to spend? Possibly.

There are high IQ, "system" QBs out there to be had in the draft (McCarron, Fales, etc), that will likely be available in the late 1st who could fit into Trestman's system. The Bears could also potentially add a higher pick in a Cutler trade.

What would the Titans give up for Cutler? A 1st and 3rd this season plus a 2nd next year? Possibly a young DE or CB thrown in place of a pick? Too much? Not enough?

[muarmy81]

There are high IQ, "system" QBs out there to be had in the draft (McCarron, Fales, etc), that will likely be available in the late 1st who could fit into Trestman's system. The Bears could also potentially add a higher pick in a Cutler trade.

What would the Titans give up for Cutler? A 1st and 3rd this season plus a 2nd next year? Possibly a young DE or CB thrown in place of a pick? Too much? Not enough?

Maybe I'm way off base here but I don't get the feeling that Cutler is going to hold out for a huge, Flacco-type contract.  If the Bears can sign him for 4-5 years for less than $10 million per year, I think they'll do it.  I don't think the Bears are going to offer $16 million + per year to keep him and I may be crazy but I don't get the feeling Jay is positioning himself for that big a number.   I guess the question becomes is he worth $8 million per year?  $9 million?  We'll see... I'm thrilled with McCown keeping the Bears in the playoff discussion but he isn't the long term solution and as we've seen if they resign Cutler and he does perform in this offense we still need to sign 11 FA starters coming out of contract next year and fix some major holes on defense.

[ChicosBailBonds]

It's always about Chicos.

LOL. I was a kid, carrying helmets, shoulder pads, throwing dirty clothes in the washer, etc....trying not to have to look at Rafael Septien's junk.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1987-01-24/sports/8701070066_1_finne-sexual-assault-mossy-cade

 

[wadesworld]

There are high IQ, "system" QBs out there to be had in the draft (McCarron, Fales, etc), that will likely be available in the late 1st who could fit into Trestman's system. The Bears could also potentially add a higher pick in a Cutler trade.

What would the Titans give up for Cutler? A 1st and 3rd this season plus a 2nd next year? Possibly a young DE or CB thrown in place of a pick? Too much? Not enough?

Way, way too much.  1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft picks for an aging middle of the pack quarterback?  No.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Way, way too much.  1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft picks for an aging middle of the pack quarterback?  No.

You really, really, hate Cutler.

[wadesworld]

You really, really, hate Cutler.

Find me examples of trades in the NFL that sent a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick for 1 player...

You see very productive players who are still very near their prime traded for a 4th round draft pick. People don't give away 1st and 2nd round draft picks.

[brandx]

What would the Titans give up for Cutler? A 1st and 3rd this season plus a 2nd next year? Possibly a young DE or CB thrown in place of a pick? Too much? Not enough?

A 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for a 30 year old QB who has been in the playoffs once in his career and has never reached a 90 QB rating? And who will want $15-$18 mil a year? I don't think so.

Might be worth a 2nd and 3rd, but it would have to be a sign and trade which adds more complexity to the deal.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Gotta agree- -this is the worst defense I have ever seen in the NFL.

If you can believe it, the Saints were actually worse last year.  Staggering to believe.

[MerrittsMustache]

Find me examples of trades in the NFL that sent a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick for 1 player...

You see very productive players who are still very near their prime traded for a 4th round draft pick. People don't give away 1st and 2nd round draft picks.

Um...Jay Cutler to the Bears. RGIII to Washington. There's 2 off the top of my head.

Give me an example of a productive QB near his prime who was traded for only a 4th Round pick.

[NavinRJohnson]

Um...Jay Cutler to the Bears. RGIII to Washington. There's 2 off the top of my head.

Give me an example of a productive QB near his prime who was traded for only a 4th Round pick.

Cutler was much younger, healthier and full of potential then, and RGIII? Seriously? He was the second pick in the draft. IIRC, the Packers got the 83rd overall pick for Favre, which may be a better comparison, even though he was older, and Jay Cutler is no Brett Favre. Carson Palmer netted Oakland a 6th round pick I believe, which is probably the best comparison considering all factors, age, contract, etc.

Anyway, bears aren't getting anything close to a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for Cutler, particularly with the QB class, and the draft in general, being as deep as it appears to be.

[mu03eng]

There are high IQ, "system" QBs out there to be had in the draft (McCarron, Fales, etc), that will likely be available in the late 1st who could fit into Trestman's system. The Bears could also potentially add a higher pick in a Cutler trade.

What would the Titans give up for Cutler? A 1st and 3rd this season plus a 2nd next year? Possibly a young DE or CB thrown in place of a pick? Too much? Not enough?

What did I miss here, why would the Titans want Cutler when they have Jake Locker?

[MerrittsMustache]

What did I miss here, why would the Titans want Cutler when they have Jake Locker?

The Titans are reportedly turning down the option on the oft-injured Jake Locker and moving on.

[MerrittsMustache]

Cutler was much younger, healthier and full of potential then, and RGIII? Seriously? He was the second pick in the draft. IIRC, the Packers got the 83rd overall pick for Favre, which may be a better comparison, even though he was older, and Jay Cutler is no Brett Favre. Carson Palmer netted Oakland a 6th round pick I believe, which is probably the best comparison considering all factors, age, contract, etc.

Anyway, bears aren't getting anything close to a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for Cutler, particularly with the QB class, and the draft in general, being as deep as it appears to be.

Cutler's #1 fan asked for trade examples. I gave them.

Favre was 39-years-old when he got traded. Hardly a fair comparison.

Cincy got a 1st and 2nd for Palmer from Oakland. That's likely the closest comparison (Palmer was 32), although the Bengals had no leverage (Palmer was prepared to retire) and the Raiders were involved so take it for what it's worth.

[NavinRJohnson]

What did I miss here, why would the Titans want Cutler when they have Jake Locker?

This brings up another pretty good point, the doesn't appear to be a huge market for Cutler. You've got to be a team that feels like you're in pretty good shape everywhere else to trade for him, vs. just getting a guy in the draft. Texans, Titans, Rams, maybe the Browns might fit that description, but those teams will all be gpdrafting fairly high with a good crop of QBs sitting there. Chicago still looks like the likely option next year.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

This brings up another pretty good point, the doesn't appear to be a huge market for Cutler. You've got to be a team that feels like you're in pretty good shape everywhere else to trade for him, vs. just getting a guy in the draft. Texans, Titans, Rams, maybe the Browns might fit that description, but those teams will all be gpdrafting fairly high with a good crop of QBs sitting there. Chicago still looks like the likely option next year.

It's just a question of value.

A lot of teams would LOVE to have Jay Cutler.

The question is just cost ($) and cost (trade).

If the Bears can get a lot of value, then they should consider it. If they can only get a 4th rd, then they are probably better off keeping him.

[Lennys Tap]

Cutler's #1 fan asked for trade examples. I gave them.

Favre was 39-years-old when he got traded. Hardly a fair comparison.

Cincy got a 1st and 2nd for Palmer from Oakland. That's likely the closest comparison (Palmer was 32), although the Bengals had no leverage (Palmer was prepared to retire) and the Raiders were involved so take it for what it's worth.

If the Bears can find an organization as brain dead as Oakland to overpay, trade him in a minute, draft a QB and spend the $ you save repairing an old, bad defense. If not, franchise him and at least be entertaining for a couple of years trying to out score people.

[brandx]

What did I miss here, why would the Titans want Cutler when they have Jake Locker?

Everyone wants a franchise QB 

[MarsupialMadness]

Jay Cutler is a top 15 QB in the league.  The chances of drafting a QB who ends up being that good are very slim.  It would be a huge gamble to not resign him or to trade him away.  The Bears have had a loooooooong history of horrible QBs up until Jay came to Chicago.  The Bears aren't going to get a guy like Andrew Luck in the draft position they are.  What are the chances of landing a guy like Russell Wilson in the 3rd round?  Very slim.  

Tony Romo was undrafted, Tom Brady in the 6th round.  Obviously that's not something you can count on.  Mike Glennon and Matt Schaub were drafted in the 3rd round (and I wouldn't say they are great NFL QBs, might not even have a job next year).  All other current starting NFL QBs were drafted in the first two rounds, most of then in the top half of the 1st round.  

So if you want to draft a QB to replace the starter, you do it in the first 2 rounds. But what are the odds?

I read these stats somewhere, I didn't compile them myself:

38 QBs have been drafted in the 1st round since 2000.

16/38 first round QBs since 2000 failed:

Chad Pennington, David Carr,Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow

And honestly, it's 19, because Ponder, Weeden, and Gabbert are all on their way out. That puts it at an even 50%, 19/38.

11/15 second round QBs since 2000 failed. (excluding Brock Osweiler here because he is being "groomed" by Manning supposedly)
Jimmy Clausen, Pat White, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo

And of those 1st round picks that have "succeeded", Cutler is still a much better QB than most of them: Manuel, Tannehill, Weeden, Ponder, Locker, Gabbert, Palmer, Bradford, Alex Smith.

The overwhelming point is:  you are taking a huge gamble to use your first or second round pick on a QB flyer that may never end up being as good as Cutler, and odds show that he won't be as good as Cutler.  To not bring him back next year would be a mistake, IMO.

[brandx]

Jay Cutler is a top 15 QB in the league.  The chances of drafting a QB who ends up being that good are very slim.  It would be a huge gamble to not resign him or to trade him away.  The Bears have had a loooooooong history of horrible QBs up until Jay came to Chicago.  The Bears aren't going to get a guy like Andrew Luck in the draft position they are.  What are the chances of landing a guy like Russell Wilson in the 3rd round?  Very slim.  

The National Football Post's Jason Cole reports the Bears are likely to let free-agent-to-be Jay Cutler walk in the offseason unless he's willing to sign a team-friendly deal.

Cole is just the latest member of the media to report this, so it doesn't come as a shock. "(The Bears) believe in (coach Marc) Trestman after what they've seen from (backup quarterback Josh) McCown," a source told Cole. "Between his system and the two big receivers (Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery), you have a system where a quarterback can flourish. I don't know if McCown is going to be the starter (next season), but I think the team would be fine letting Cutler test the market and then go draft someone if he left." The Bears could re-sign McCown to a cheap, short-term deal and let a draft pick sit and learn.