Buzz and MU's "Ceiling"

[GGGG]

I posted this in the "Buzz to UK" thread...and then realized it was in the Superbar.  So I thought I would recreate a portion of it here...

I've been thinking a lot lately about ceilings.  What is Buzz's ceiling?  What is Marquette's ceiling?  Is Buzz ever going to be able to get those top recruits?  Is he "slick" enough?  Is he too brutally honest about breaking player's balls?  Top players don't needs to get their balls broken, at least in their eyes.  They need to showcase their talents enough to go to the NBA in a year or two.

And what about Marquette's?  Does the everyday recruit view us as a more glorified version of Gonzaga?  About the same as a Georgetown?  Clearly not in the same class as the blue-bloods, but are we even seen in the same light as that next level down?

And if that is the case, are Sweet 16 appearances pretty much the highest level we hope we can consistently achieve?  We caught lightning in a bottle with one of the best players in basketball history, and that lead us to the Final Four in 2003.  Is that replicable?

[Skatastrophy]

I think you absolutely have to catch lightning in a bottle to have *any* success in the NCAA tournament, but that's the nature of single-elimination tournaments.

In my mind, it's silly to measure the strength of your program by NCAA tournament success because it's so reliant on luck. 
On the other hand, the only measure that anyone cares about is NCAA tournament success.

[nyg]

The recruiting answers will come in the next two years with Looney and Stone.  Two recruits who have the potential of being ranked in the top 10.  If MU is going to be "glorified" in the next few years, these two potential recruits, along with Taylor, Burton, D.Wilson and McKay onboard, will put MU way over in the "glorified" aspect.  MU needs to get one of them.  Get both, along with the new recruits and now you are talking program changes.  

Recruits have to view MU over Gonzaga and probably under Georgetown in your example, and agree with the next level down comparison.  George Mason and VCU make Final Four, yet they are not considered even being close to MU   in college b-ball status. 

[GGGG]

I think we comfort ourselves by saying it is relying on luck, but honestly is that the case?  There are programs that get to the Sweet 16, the Elite 8 and the Final Four on a regular basis.  And yeah, you occasionally have other schools that crash the party, but look at last year....UK, Kansas, Louisville, Ohio State.

All of those schools have been to at least four Final Fours in the last 20 years.  

The question is are we one of those "other schools?"

[GGGG]

The recruiting answers will come in the next two years with Looney and Stone.  Two recruits who have the potential of being ranked in the top 10.  If MU is going to be "glorified" in the next few years, these two potential recruits, along with Taylor, Burton, D.Wilson and McKay onboard, will put MU way over in the "glorified" aspect.  MU needs to get one of them.  Get both, along with the new recruits and now you are talking program changes. 

Yeah, OK.  I get that.  We have to take advantage of pretty much an unprecedented level of talent coming out of Milwaukee.

We have to land one or both of those guys.  Ride them far.  And build off of that.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Frankly, we had a golden opportunity to get to the Final Four last year with a great bracket and two Marquette greats playing pivotal roles. Unfortunately, we picked a bad time to go ice cold from the field. A lot of advancing is luck. I think if we can keep Buzz we will break through at least once in the next 4-5 years.

[jsglow]

I suspect that MU will never be a regular Elite 8 participant along the lines of the 'blue bloods'.  That said, we've become a permanent fixture in the NCAA with nearly weekly exposure on national TV.  Not bad for a midwest Jesuit school of 12,000.  Frankly, when one judges the Buzz era the only point in our history that surpasses it would be the mid '70s Al era.  Enjoy the ride folks.

[nyg]

Yeah, OK.  I get that.  We have to take advantage of pretty much an unprecedented level of talent coming out of Milwaukee.

We have to land one or both of those guys.  Ride them far.  And build off of that.

Thats correct.  If MU lands one of those two, then MU shows the "blue bloods", they can keep the most highly ranked recruits out of Milwaukee in the last 25 years, from moving on. 

[MerrittsMustache]

The FF was within reach last season. The Florida game was very winnable and the next would have been a rubber game with Louisville. Granted, I think L'ville was playing better than MU at the time but in a winner-take-all game, anything can happen. Getting back to the "ceiling" topic...

The difference in that Florida game was Brad Beal - a lottery pick and one of the top players in his class. Marquette doesn't have anyone who fits that description. Even when they did have a lottery pick on the team, he more or less came out of no where. It's one thing to find the "diamond in the rough" like Butler, Crowder, DJO, Gardner, etc but none of those guys were/are the type of player who could put his team on his back and carry them deep into the NCAA Tournament. Marquette has had some very good players come through the program, especially recently, but aside from the obvious, none of those guys have been nearly as talented as the sixth man on some of the so-called bluebloods. In the end, talent typically wins out.

Consistently being in the upper half of the Big East and reaching Sweet 16s is probably the ceiling for MU basketball. That doesn't mean MU will never win the BE or will never reach the Elite 8, Final Four or even win a National Championship. It means that having the expectation that Marquette will be a perennial power and national title contender is not realistic (as much as we'd all like it to be). If Marquette were to win a National Championship, it would likely be because at least one player like a Juan Anderson or a Steve Taylor or a Deonte Burton suddenly had the light go on and became an All-American/lottery pick. It's not going to be because McDonald's All-American have started begging to play in Milwaukee.

[Dr. Blackheart]

First is consistency.  If you look at the elite coaches, they stay in place and build a reputation and program.  And even those who jumped around a bit gained NBA blood/connections (Cal, Pitino, Montgomery).  Stability breeds success due to continuity, network, reputation.  MU is close to landing some local blue bloods, will this bring on the other Burger Boys?  Will the new admin allow the Top 25's one and dones?  We know statistically from Statsheet that to win a national championship, you need these recruits.  Is this within the "win the right way" guidelines?

[BCHoopster]

In Basketball recruiting you have to take the next step, you can see what Al did.  First George Thompson, got Dean with Ric Cobb, but the next step was Jim Chones, after that and
being in the Top 5 every year it got easier, then came McNeal, Lucas, Bo Eliis, Butch, Whitehead, you need that one stud that takes you to the next level.  Stone might be the player,
but right now the Top 20 kids are not looking at MU.  Being in the Top 20 every year helps, Buzz is taking the next step in recruiting for the following year, but if they are going to take
the next step he has to beat out Alabama or Miami for a top kid, and Emblid.  If he gets both, I think he is on his way to the next level.

[Lennys Tap]

Certainly there are "blue bloods" and just as certainly Marquette isn't one of them. That said the UNC "Dohretys" look a lot different than the UNC "Smiths" and the UK "Caliparis" easily outshine the UK "Gillespies". Is UCLA a blue blood without the Wooden era? Indiana without Knight? (maybe). The last 10 years of Al's tenure we were better than every program in the country except UCLA. So even if you're not a "blue blood" the right coach can put you (temporarily) at that level. MSU/Izzo is an example of that. Buzz is our best (only real) chance in the last 35 years to do it. He's got us within striking distance, but we're not there yet.

[Goose]

When it comes to Buzz I believe 100% he has ability to get the highest recruits in the nation. That said, I am not certain that can happen at MU for many reasons. MU can and should be a top 20 program year in and year out. My fear is that the school does not understand what it takes to accomplish that. Being top in any walk of life is hard and college athletics is tougher because you are dealing with kids.

Buzz is unique guy and I think he relates extremely well with 18-22 kids, much in the same way Al did. KO was similar in that regard. Knowing the culture they come from and getting their personal stories is big part of it. Buzz was not overnight success and relates to people's struggles very well IMO. All I know is that coaches that get it can recruit anywhere they work. Hate Huggins or not, the guy recruiting studs to KSU and I think Buzz has same skill set.

If MU want to compete for national championships we have a coach for the first time since 1977 capable of doing it. I am not stroking Buzz off or bashing MU in any way. Just saying that I have seen a lot of MU ball over the years and this is the closest we have been to elite in three plus decades.

[4everwarriors]

Buzz is the guy who can and will do it, IF he's here long enough.

[bilsu]

I think Buzz's ceiling is higher than MU's. By that I mean, if he was coaching at Kentucky, North Carolina or Kansas I would expect him to win a National title. While it is possible, he is not likely to win one at MU. To win with players ranked in the 50-100 range you have to have experienced players and luck. At the top three schools you will have multiple McDonald's all-americans, which just makes it easier to get to final 4 to have a chance to win the title.

[MUfan12]

Buzz is the guy who can and will do it, IF he's here long enough.

Agree with this. Just not sure he'll do it here.

[MerrittsMustache]

I think Buzz's ceiling is higher than MU's. By that I mean, if he was coaching at Kentucky, North Carolina or Kansas I would expect him to win a National title. While it is possible, he is not likely to win one at MU. To win with players ranked in the 50-100 range you have to have experienced players and luck. At the top three schools you will have multiple McDonald's all-americans, which just makes it easier to get to final 4 to have a chance to win the title.

This is a really good point. I believe that Buzz would be willing to take a chance on a lot of talented players that the Marquette administration (both current and former) would not admit into the university. That's not meant to be a knock on Buzz or the MU admin. I just think that there are quite a few high-level D1 coaches with a lot more leeway on questionable recruits.

[Tugg Speedman]

I'm not sure what the question is.  Are you asking if Buzz can start regularly getting top 10 guys?  Because we are now getting top 50 guys (30 to 70) with regularity.  We are ranked every year and playing into the second week of the tourney.  We have up to 8 guys that may log minutes in the NBA this year.

Add the above up and we are among maybe 5 to 10 schools that can all say the above.  The only other small private institutions on that list are also in the Big East.

Now to go to the next level, we have to get one or two and done players.  Their are only three or four schools they go to (UK, UNC, Duke, UCLA and maybe Mich State).  At that point, it becomes a zero sum game.  To get a top 10 recruit, you have to take him away from another school.

MU has as good a chance as anyone breaking into the one and two and done group.  Especially with the Milwaukee talent coming.

That said, we could start with Embiid.

 

[Tugg Speedman]

MU can and should be a top 20 program year in and year out. My fear is that the school does not understand what it takes to accomplish that. Being top in any walk of life is hard and college athletics is tougher because you are dealing with kids.

Goose, you're Nowcasting (taking an event that just occurred and predict it is about to occur).

MU has been a top 20 team year-in and year out for many years.  It has played in the second week of the tourney for two years running and has one of its best recruiting classes ever coming in.

So let me correct your statement ... MU can and should be a is an established top 20 program year in and year out.  My  fear is that the school does not understand what it takes to accomplish that this because they made it happen. Being top in any walk of life is hard and college athletics is tougher because you are dealing with kids.

[Benny B]

Part of me believes that the reality of D-I hoops is that recruiting and coaching alone won't make you a "blue blood."  The only way to be a blue blood today is to swim around in slime -- and no, this doesn't mean over-signing, signing JUCO's or sending a player home every summer.  I'm talking the things that - if uncovered - would earn you a multi-year post-season ban, something which Marquette cannot afford.

Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse, Kansas, Ohio State, Louisville, etc. have all mastered the system to the point where they can get caught with their hands in the cookie jar yet skirt responsibility (see: North Carolina AFAM courses and/or Lance Thomas' bling).  Yet even if they were sanctioned, they are all publicly-funded institutions who can afford to pay a few fines or miss out on the tournament in a given year.

Marquette's pockets simply aren't that deep, and so while MU can be a perennial competitor and occasional contender, it can't afford the risks associated with becoming a perennial blue blood.  That's MU's ceiling.  

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

This is a really good point. I believe that Buzz would be willing to take a chance on a lot of talented players that the Marquette administration (both current and former) would not admit into the university. That's not meant to be a knock on Buzz or the MU admin. I just think that there are quite a few high-level D1 coaches with a lot more leeway on questionable recruits.

Do we know if Buzz has wanted to recruit a player but was told "no" by the admin?

It wouldn't shock me if it's happened, but I don't remember hearing anything like that (yet).

[Pakuni]

This is a really good point. I believe that Buzz would be willing to take a chance on a lot of talented players that the Marquette administration (both current and former) would not admit into the university. That's not meant to be a knock on Buzz or the MU admin. I just think that there are quite a few high-level D1 coaches with a lot more leeway on questionable recruits.

Maybe, but there's no real evidence of this.
In fact, MU seemingly has admitted several players, both for Crean and Buzz (and even Mike Deane, for that matter), who would not have met the school's academic standards for non athletes. The last time I can recall recruits being denied admission was under Bob Dukiet.

[4everwarriors]

You cats shouldn't bank on a campionship run with just MKE talent. Adding Looney and Stone to the mix could be just the right combination, but I'd be shocked if MU landed one of them. I have no knowledge of what Stone is thinkin'. Far too early for anyone to get hot and bothered over him now. Suffice it to say, he will write his own ticket.
Looney, on the other hand, I feel, will likely go out of state. In fact, I know firsthand, both he and his camp feel he is ready to do so and actually see merit in leaving the area. BTW, he wasn't at Madness, aina?

[Rubie Q]

Do we know if Buzz has wanted to recruit a player but was told "no" by the admin?

It wouldn't shock me if it's happened, but I don't remember hearing anything like that (yet).

In fact: being allowed to bring Mayo on board would seem to be some evidence to the contrary.

[Goose]

4ever

Agree completely on the chances on landing Looney and Stone. With or without Buzz I think both might be a reach. Going away from home is big for kids and do not fault them a bit. That said, us landing Chicago kids should work in our favor. I am not banking on Looney and Stone and not because of Buzz or MU. Personally I am hoping that Buzz, Burton and Wilson are all here next year before I get amped up over Looney and Stone.