Futbol Talk

[JWags85]

REALLLY appreciate not having to sweat this match for even a second

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

The USMNT really came through.  It would take the biggest blunder in WCQ history to not qualify now.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The USMNT really came through.  It would take the biggest blunder in WCQ history to not qualify now.

So you're saying there's a chance?

[MUBBau]

A 5 goal lead going into the final game is nice

[panda]

The USMNT really came through.  It would take the biggest blunder in WCQ history to not qualify now.

Lol like what ? A mathematical error?

[Its DJOver]

Lol like what ? A mathematical error?

Someone feel free to check my math, but we cannot be eliminated on Wednesday, and they only way we go to the inter-continental playoff rather than getting one of the automatic qualification spots is if we lose by 6 or more.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Someone feel free to check my math, but we cannot be eliminated on Wednesday, and they only way we go to the inter-continental playoff rather than getting one of the automatic qualification spots is if we lose by 6 or more.

Correct.  Losing by 6 goals and then losing the intercontinental playoff would be what I referred to in my other post as "the biggest blunder in WCQ history."

[panda]

Our goal difference w Costa Rica is 10. We have qualified. There are zero concerns.

Most probable “outsiders” outcome is Costa Rica jumping Mexico on the final day.

Edit - 6 or more is correct :-/ my bad

[brewcity77]

The USMNT really came through.  It would take the biggest blunder in WCQ history to not qualify now.

In 2018, I remember saying "I can see Russia from my couch" after we drilled Panama 4-0 to basically lock in qualification. The only way we could possibly get left out was if Honduras beat Mexico, Panama beat Costa Rica, and we lost at Trinidad and Tobago.

Well, Mexico opened the scoring and went on to lose, Costa Rica opened the scoring and went on to lose, and we obviously lost at T&T when even a single point would've guaranteed direct qualification to Russia. In addition, the last qualifier we played at Costa Rica was a humbling 4-0 loss. The hypothetical 6-0 loss might be the biggest blunder in WCQ history, but it's not that far a cry of the events that took place in the last qualification cycle.

[Its DJOver]

The biggest difference though is that we can’t be eliminated tomorrow, we would not only have to get destroyed by Costa Rica but then also lose to (likely) New Zealand, currently ranked 111 by FIFA, ten spots lower than where T&T is right now, who didn’t even qualify for the CONCACAF “octagonal”(FIFA rankings can be taken fwiw).

[brewcity77]

The biggest difference though is that we can’t be eliminated tomorrow, we would not only have to get destroyed by Costa Rica but then also lose to (likely) New Zealand, currently ranked 111 by FIFA, ten spots lower than where T&T is right now, who didn’t even qualify for the CONCACAF “octagonal”(FIFA rankings can be taken fwiw).

Yeah, I definitely feel better after what we did to Panama this time than I did before the match, but I'm not going to rest easy until they blow that final whistle tomorrow and we're in. 2018 was seriously traumatic for me watching all those results. We went behind, but so did everyone else. Then Pulisic gave us a chance, then Honduras and Panama went ahead...the definition of "we're through" changed rapidly.

Though if you really want something to cheer for...

• If Portugal loses today, and...
• If Holland fails to win today, and...
• Mexico loses tomorrow, and...
• USA wins at Costa Rica, then...
• USA would move up to 9th in the FIFA rankings and be the final Pot 1 team in the World Cup.

It's not likely, but no more unlikely than what went against us in 2018.

[Its DJOver]

Yeah, I definitely feel better after what we did to Panama this time than I did before the match, but I'm not going to rest easy until they blow that final whistle tomorrow and we're in. 2018 was seriously traumatic for me watching all those results. We went behind, but so did everyone else. Then Pulisic gave us a chance, then Honduras and Panama went ahead...the definition of "we're through" changed rapidly.

Though if you really want something to cheer for...

• If Portugal loses today, and...
• If Holland fails to win today, and...
• Mexico loses tomorrow, and...
• USA wins at Costa Rica, then...
• USA would move up to 9th in the FIFA rankings and be the final Pot 1 team in the World Cup.

It's not likely, but no more unlikely than what went against us in 2018.

Totally understand the mindset of “we’re not in until we’re in”, and am glad that the players seem to have a similar one. Postgame Sunday everyone was talking about Costa Rica, not Qatar.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

The biggest difference between 2018 and 2022, is how much the USMNT controls things.

Forget about outside help for a second.  Needing a draw on the road compared to a 5-0 loss is huge.  There's a reason "getting CONCACAFed" is part of US soccer vernacular.  And that's exactly what happened in 2018.
 
In 2022, there is no need to worry about a 1 goal loss, or even a draw.  All the USMNT has to do is park the bus, kill 90 minutes, and not concede 6 goals.

[MUfan12]

City and Bayern playing a friendly at Lambeau in July.

[JWags85]

The biggest difference between 2018 and 2022, is how much the USMNT controls things.

Forget about outside help for a second.  Needing a draw on the road compared to a 5-0 loss is huge.  There's a reason "getting CONCACAFed" is part of US soccer vernacular.  And that's exactly what happened in 2018.
 
In 2022, there is no need to worry about a 1 goal loss, or even a draw.  All the USMNT has to do is park the bus, kill 90 minutes, and not concede 6 goals.

Id frankly be kind of embarrassed if the US parked the bus.  Costa Rica hasn't scored 2 goals in a match in 3 years.  This isn't Brazil or Germany who can ignite and fire them in.  Its an inferior squad who the US has handled well the last few meetings.  Play your normal match, maybe don't be ultra attacking, and you'll comfortably get the result you want.  This is a pretty good USMNT, not North Macedonia against Italy.

[brewcity77]

The biggest difference between 2018 and 2022, is how much the USMNT controls things.

Forget about outside help for a second.  Needing a draw on the road compared to a 5-0 loss is huge.  There's a reason "getting CONCACAFed" is part of US soccer vernacular.  And that's exactly what happened in 2018.
 
In 2022, there is no need to worry about a 1 goal loss, or even a draw.  All the USMNT has to do is park the bus, kill 90 minutes, and not concede 6 goals.

So interesting wrinkle to all this...Grant Wahl reported that yellow cards from the Octagonal WILL carry over to the intercontinental playoff in Qatar. Right now, Francisco Calvo, Bryan Oviedo, Celso Borges, and Joel Campbell, all Costa Rican starters, would miss the playoff if they took a yellow on Wednesday. So would reserves Bryan Ruiz, Jewisson Bennett, Keysher Fuller, and Johan Venegas. There's a very real possibility the Ticos roll out a B team on Wednesday since needing a 6-goal victory to advance is fairly unlikely and their worst case scenario is going to that playoff.

[Its DJOver]

Crazy final day in the CAF qualifying.  Nigeria fails to qualify, their fans storm and subsequently vandalize the field.  Senegal beats Egypt in a shootout only a few months after beating them in a shootout AFCON, might not even be the biggest story of that game considering the dozens? hundreds? of lasers that were being shined in the eyes of the Egyptian penalty takers. Then, to cap it all off, Algeria thinks that they have a 118 minute winner, only to concede a 124th minute goal and go out on away goals.  Every continent formats their qualifying differently, but in terms of pure last day value, I don't think you're going to be able to beat that.

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Crazy final day in the CAF qualifying.  Nigeria fails to qualify, their fans storm and subsequently vandalize the field.  Senegal beats Egypt in a shootout only a few months after beating them in a shootout AFCON, might not even be the biggest story of that game considering the dozens? hundreds? of lasers that were being shined in the eyes of the Egyptian penalty takers. Then, to cap it all off, Algeria thinks that they have a 118 minute winner, only to concede a 124th minute goal and go out on away goals.  Every continent formats their qualifying differently, but in terms of pure last day value, I don't think you're going to be able to beat that.

The Algeria Cameroon game was awesome

[brewcity77]

Things are basically set for the World Cup draw on Friday:

Pot 1: Qatar, Brazil, Belgium, France, Argentina, England, Spain, Portugal

Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Mexico*, USA*, Switzerland, Croatia, Uruguay

Pot 3: Senegal, Iran, Japan, Morocco, Serbia, Poland, South Korea, Canada/Tunisia**

Pot 4: Canada/Tunisia**, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, Ghana, Cameroon, AFC/CONMEBOL playoff winner, Oceania/CONCACAF playoff winner, UEFA playoff winner

*USA or Mexico go to Pot 2 if qualified, but could fall to Pot 4 if they do not advance automatically
**Canada is Pot 3 with a win tonight and Tunisia goes to Pot 4, a Canada loss/draw flips them.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The Nigeria/Ghana game hashing was a little something....

[JWags85]

The Nigeria/Ghana game hashing was a little something....

The CAF is an absolute joke.  I find it hard to put too much blame on individual national teams and fans when the federation just allows garbage to run rampant.  From safety to officiating to corruption, its pathetic.

[brewcity77]

The CAF is an absolute joke.  I find it hard to put too much blame on individual national teams and fans when the federation just allows garbage to run rampant.  From safety to officiating to corruption, its pathetic.

Those Egyptian PKs yesterday were ridiculous. I couldn't believe the ref allowed that to continue.

[JWags85]

Those Egyptian PKs yesterday were ridiculous. I couldn't believe the ref allowed that to continue.

Saw people justifying like "oh its just retaliation for the Egyptian fans doing it in the previous leg".  But there is a difference between it being shined during a match (which unfortunately happens a lot) and an entire player's face being covered during a pen shootout

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The CAF is an absolute joke.  I find it hard to put too much blame on individual national teams and fans when the federation just allows garbage to run rampant.  From safety to officiating to corruption, its pathetic.

Opps, autocorrected hashtag.

#Nig/Gha but remove the slash....

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Gotta admire New Zealand.  Ever since Australia left for Asia, they have been the easy Oceania qualifier.  This year for the fourth straight time.  They still have to win a playoff, which would be likely against Costa Rica, but this year it is just one game and not two legs.  (They are 1-2 in those playoffs previously.)

But reducing your chances for qualification to a playoff, when there is no way they would get in through the Asian qualification, is best option available.

Australia OTOH probably thought going to Asia would be easier but they now have to win two playoffs - the first v. UAE and the second v. Peru.