RealTimeRPI has MU going 6-12 in BE (L by 8 to Rutgers), Pomeroy still says 9-9

[bamamarquettefan]

Today's win pushed MU up almost 30 spots in the RPI, but even after adjusting for today's game RealTimeRPI projects MU to lose 9 of it's next 11 and go 6-12 in Conference play.  www.kenpom.com still has MU going 9-9 in conference play (basically the win took them from expecting something like 8.7 wins to 9.2.

I don't mind being viewed as the underdog again this year.

Rutgers drilled a pretty good Miami team in their only tough game at home this year by 18 (UNC loss was a semi-home game), and RealTime has Rutgers beating us by 8 while www.kenpom.com has us winning by 5, so pretty big difference in how we are viewed.

I'm glad we scheduled the away games at UWM and Vandy, and believe that will have us prepared to win on the road instead of walking into our first hostile crowd of the game in conference play.

I like that we controlled the defensive rebound more than 67% of the time (the national average), and had 22 more assists (improving on one of the top averages in the country at 18.6) and had 8 steals again (our average in the 6 tough games to date).

5 of 13 is just above average on treys, so I'll take that.

[ChicosBailBonds]

RealtimeRPI, I don't know, not my favorite when it comes to predictions for RPI.  Warrennolan's predictions are jacked up right now, too.  Both have the current RPI correct, but the predictions are way off.


The other sites I use for RPI predictions say MU to finish 9-9, same prediction as KenPom and that was before today's result factored in.

[willie warrior]

And that is why they play the game.
If we go 6-12, that is a big time disaster--15-16 for the season. Hoo boy!
9-9 will not get us into the dance at 18-13, unless 3 or 4 are against the ranked big boys, and then it will be iffy. vCVnderbilt and Wisconsin should have been wins for us, and then we could breathe easier.
It will be a real upward battle, now. We will have to wait and see how we hang in there/or do not in most of these games.

[Eye]

That 9-9 in Pomeroy includes 10-8 when you go game-by-game with a 49 percent chance of winning at Seton Hall, so not too far from 11-7, which I think is the magic number to at the least get in this year.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The RPI predictions I use have MU finishing with a 66 RPI and a 10-8 Big East record.

For you historical buffs, only 3 teams in history have received an at large berth with a 66 RPI or worse.

[Jay Bee]

The RPI predictions I use have MU finishing with a 66 RPI and a 10-8 Big East record.

For you historical buffs, only 3 teams in history have received an at large berth with a 66 RPI or worse.

How many years has the tourney had 68 teams in it?

[ChicosBailBonds]

How many years has the tourney had 68 teams in it?

Zero.

How many years of history with 68 bids available do we know how the committee will reward those final three spots....same answer as above.  Zero.

[MarquetteDano]

Zero.

How many years of history with 68 bids available do we know how the committee will reward those final three spots....same answer as above.  Zero.

I was talking about this to a friend the other day.  It is going to be B.S. if the committee uses those three extra spots all for High Major conferences.  There are too many regular season small conference winners who lose in their conference tournament who don't get a chance to dance.  There are some good teams in there who deserve a shot.

I wonder if one of those mid major/small conference schools could cost us an invitation this year?  It will suck but I would be less pissed than if we lost out to a Big 12/SEC type school.

[brewcity77]

I wonder if one of those mid major/small conference schools could cost us an invitation this year?  It will suck but I would be less pissed than if we lost out to a Big 12/SEC type school.

Honestly, I wouldn't care who we lost out to. I just want Marquette in the Big Dance, hopefully not in a play-in game as a 12 or 13 seed. I want the chance to see this team make the Sweet Sixteen and beyond. And I don't care if we were edging out Wichita State, Virginia Tech, Southern Miss, USC, or even one of our own in St. John's. And five years down the road, I also wouldn't care who beat us out, I'd just be disappointed looking up in the BC rafters and seeing "NIT" next to 2011 considering all the talent we have.

So with that in mind, let's bust what RealTimeRPI is saying and go out and win the 11 or 12 Big East games we need to get into March Madness, starting with giving Rutgers their first home loss of the season.

[79Warrior]

I'm glad we scheduled the away games at UWM and Vandy, and believe that will have us prepared to win on the road instead of walking into our first hostile crowd of the game in conference play.

Now that is funny. UWM was an away game in name only.

[brewcity77]

Now that is funny. UWM was an away game in name only.

I disagree. While we had more of a presence than at other true away games, the crowd was still probably 65-70% UW-M fans, and the volume in the building, especially in the final 5 minutes, was 99.8% UW-M fans. Had the Arena sold out the other tickets to Marquette supporters, we could have made it our building, but the truth is, we didn't.

[mu_hilltopper]

I disagree. While we had more of a presence than at other true away games, the crowd was still probably 65-70% UW-M fans, and the volume in the building, especially in the final 5 minutes, was 99.8% UW-M fans. Had the Arena sold out the other tickets to Marquette supporters, we could have made it our building, but the truth is, we didn't.

Totally agree.  That was UWM's building and crowd.  MU's showing was fractional.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The game didn't sell out and have massive amounts of MU fans there?

Sincerely

Perplexed Mike Hunt, Dale Hoffman, Bud Haidet

[bamamarquettefan]

Good news is ForecastRPI was updated later in the day and had us 10-8 which they say would make us 58th in the RPI and give us 5 wins against RPI top 50 (including 3 against top 25).

However, they project we are a very close call between 9 and 10 wins and only winning 9 would push us down to 69th in RPI, so they are basically saying 9.5 wins gives us 66th in the RPI, but if we actually win teh 10th we shoot up 8 spots.

in other words,
30% we exceed 10 wins
21% we have exactly 10 wins
49% we have fewer than 10 wins

Keeps looking to me like 10 wins gets us in, while 9 does not.

[Coleman]

I was talking about this to a friend the other day.  It is going to be B.S. if the committee uses those three extra spots all for High Major conferences.  There are too many regular season small conference winners who lose in their conference tournament who don't get a chance to dance.  There are some good teams in there who deserve a shot.

I wonder if one of those mid major/small conference schools could cost us an invitation this year?  It will suck but I would be less pissed than if we lost out to a Big 12/SEC type school.

It should be the best at-large teams in the country. High major, mid major, whatever....select the best teams. If they are all high major and they are the best teams, that's not B.S.

I realize its tough to evaluate mid major teams against high major teams when they rarely play each other, but thats why we have people who know a lot about basketball picking the teams. I don't think mid major/high major status should be a consideration, much like the committee says conference affiliation isn't a consideration. Best teams should get in. Period.

[MarquetteDano]

It should be the best at-large teams in the country. High major, mid major, whatever....select the best teams. If they are all high major and they are the best teams, that's not B.S.

I realize its tough to evaluate mid major teams against high major teams when they rarely play each other, but thats why we have people who know a lot about basketball picking the teams. I don't think mid major/high major status should be a consideration, much like the committee says conference affiliation isn't a consideration. Best teams should get in. Period.

Just as you said, though, sometimes it is difficult to compare a low major conference team that went 26-5 and lost in their conference tourney final versus a high major team that goes 17-14.  And if we find that the additional three bids seemed to have gone to high majors I am going to find it very dubious.

[TJ]

Good news is ForecastRPI was updated later in the day and had us 10-8 which they say would make us 58th in the RPI and give us 5 wins against RPI top 50 (including 3 against top 25).

However, they project we are a very close call between 9 and 10 wins and only winning 9 would push us down to 69th in RPI, so they are basically saying 9.5 wins gives us 66th in the RPI, but if we actually win teh 10th we shoot up 8 spots.

in other words,
30% we exceed 10 wins
21% we have exactly 10 wins
49% we have fewer than 10 wins

Keeps looking to me like 10 wins gets us in, while 9 does not.

With our unfortunate lack of a single quality nonconference win this year I think it is going to take more than 10 wins to make it this year, and there has to be a few more quality top 50 wins among those wins (as opposed to just beating up the bottom of the conference like we did last year - not that there was anything wrong with that).

[The Man in Gold]

I disagree. While we had more of a presence than at other true away games, the crowd was still probably 65-70% UW-M fans, and the volume in the building, especially in the final 5 minutes, was 99.8% UW-M fans. Had the Arena sold out the other tickets to Marquette supporters, we could have made it our building, but the truth is, we didn't.

I thought it was Marquette's fault it didn't sell out?

[GGGG]

Rutgers drilled a pretty good Miami team in their only tough game at home this year by 18 (UNC loss was a semi-home game), and RealTime has Rutgers beating us by 8 while www.kenpom.com has us winning by 5, so pretty big difference in how we are viewed.

OK...Mike Rice is a good coach, but who does Rutgers have?  Seriously, this is a game that we can't let slip through our grasp if we expect to be in the Big Dance this year.

[bamamarquettefan]

SULTAIN - Agreed on Rutgers - we can only afford one bad loss this season so if we were to lose at Rutgers we basically have to win at South Florida (where we've daydreamed in recent years) and sweep Seton Hall after Hazell returns.  Agree it would be a disaster to lose and we have the clear talent edge.  Won't say a loss would kill us, but it would be like the loss at DePaul last year, we'd be almost playing elimination games most of the rest of the year.

TJ - I respect your point,but I just disagree that there is a distinction between a non-conference and conference quality win at selection time.  Every time you beat a Top 50 RPI it helps.  Luckily we play a ton of them.  If we were in the SEC or ACC or a mid-major I'd be much more concerned right now because I'd feel like we'd missed our chances and now only had a chance or two left.  However, with where the Big East is this year we have one in WVU and with 2 of the misses projected to be in the Top 10 RPI at th end of the year, I really believe 10 gets it done because to win 10 we'd likely close with 5 Top 50 wins.

Hopefully we win 11 or 12 and don't have to find out though.

[ChicosBailBonds]

OK...Mike Rice is a good coach, but who does Rutgers have?  Seriously, this is a game that we can't let slip through our grasp if we expect to be in the Big Dance this year.

+1.  Will be a tough game.  Could be ugly.  I don't care, just get the win any way possible.

[brewcity77]

+1.  Will be a tough game.  Could be ugly.  I don't care, just get the win any way possible.

Agreed. Good coach, a couple of solid senior starters, and playing away from home is never easy. I really think that Rutgers, South Florida, and our road finale at Seton Hall are all immensely crucial games. They can be nice RPI boosts and are against teams we really should be able to beat. The consensus seems to be we'll need 11-12 BEast wins to get into the Big Dance. We'll have a very hard time getting there without those three games. It may be early, but Wednesday night is must-win.

[TJ]

SULTAIN - Agreed on Rutgers - we can only afford one bad loss this season so if we were to lose at Rutgers we basically have to win at South Florida (where we've daydreamed in recent years) and sweep Seton Hall after Hazell returns.  Agree it would be a disaster to lose and we have the clear talent edge.  Won't say a loss would kill us, but it would be like the loss at DePaul last year, we'd be almost playing elimination games most of the rest of the year.

TJ - I respect your point,but I just disagree that there is a distinction between a non-conference and conference quality win at selection time.  Every time you beat a Top 50 RPI it helps.  Luckily we play a ton of them.  If we were in the SEC or ACC or a mid-major I'd be much more concerned right now because I'd feel like we'd missed our chances and now only had a chance or two left.  However, with where the Big East is this year we have one in WVU and with 2 of the misses projected to be in the Top 10 RPI at th end of the year, I really believe 10 gets it done because to win 10 we'd likely close with 5 Top 50 wins.

Hopefully we win 11 or 12 and don't have to find out though.

In years past we've had a couple good nonconf wins and then won 10 conference games to get in.  This year we have no good nonconf wins, so I believe it will take more than 10 conference wins.  Look at Providence 2 years ago - 10 conf wins and no bid.

Now, if we sneak in a couple really good wins (@PITT, @UCONN, vs SYR, @ND) that might change a little, but just winning 10 against the bottom 9 teams in the conference (again) isn't going to be enough this year with no quality wins under our belt.