2018 NBA Offseason Thread

[Silkk the Shaka]

A lot of stretches in your post, but I think this is the biggest.  If the Sixers or Celtics were truly one personnel move away from being a serious contender, they would be making that move.  They're probably the two favorites to come out of the East, but I can't see a scenario where either would win more than one game in the Finals.

How do you know they aren't currently in the works?

[Its DJOver]

How do you know they aren't currently in the works?

Well, Philly has been signing everyone to one year deals, which sets them up to have 40+ mil in cap space next summer.  That indicates that they'll be targeting some of the big name FA's then. 

I doubt Ainge will be willing to give up Brown or Tatum, which is what it will take to lure a big name trade.  Ainge is one of the best in the business so he might be able to work something, but considering the Kyrie Hayward combo hasn't even been given a chance I don't think he'll shake the roster up too much.  The price for both Kawhi or Jimmy will be too high, so the most likely scenario where Kyrie and Jimmy team up will be in 2019 in a different city.

[MU82]

Lebron will be 35 with over 1500 games played by that point.  Yes, he's a physical freak, but he can no longer take off chunks of the regular season and/or coast through the first rounds of the playoffs in the West.

LeBron played in all 82 regular-season games this season. And he hardly was able to take off the first round, averaging 34-10-8 over 41 mpg during the 7-game series against Indiana in which he made big play after big play after big play.

He went on to put together one of the great postseasons of all time. And he still had enough left in the tank to score 51 points in G1 of the Finals as the badly undermanned Cavs were in position to beat one of the greatest teams ever before Hill's missed FT and JR's brain-fart.

LeBron will be fine.

[wadesworld]

Okay, but Javale McGee was a fairly important piece for them in the finals and he left before they had Cousins. The Celtics are adding back Kyrie and Hayward to a team that went to game 7 of the ECF. That's not nothing. That's pretty big. A lineup of Irving/Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Horford would have given GSW a run for their money without Cousins. May have even been favored. And Jimmy wants to join Kyrie so he might force a trade there. If they can add Jimmy at a reasonable price they could contend even with Cousins at GSW. The Sixers could make a play for Kawhi at a reasonable price since they'd only be getting one year in theory and SAS would get to ship him out East. Assuming Fultz can approach his #1 overall status with a year to heal an work on the J, a Simmons/Fultz/Kawhi/Saric/Embiid lineup (6'10"/6'4"/6'7"/6'10"/7" with shooting at 2-4) is a scary proposition on defense and in the paint.

I just don't think they were untouchable prior to Cousins, and don't necessarily think they're untouchable even with Cousins. All it takes is chemistry to be off, a minor injury, Celtics or Sixers making one personnel move, etc.

They are definitely the favorite. If I had to bet, I would surely bet on them, especially if Cousins can reach even 80% of his prior level like you said. But they can get beat! Looking forward to seeing the challengers.

I will give you the field and take the Warriors to not get to a game 7 in any Playoff series and win the NBA Title.  Winner can pick a charity to have the loser donate $50 to.

Losing JaVale McGee is nothing at all.  He averaged 9.5 mpg for them last season.  The Warriors also swept the NBA Finals.  I don't think it's going out on a limb to say that the Warriors would not have been in any real danger to lose to the Cavs if they didn't have JaVale McGee available, and I think the fact that that is even brought up as a "loss" for the Warriors just proves my point here.

[JWags85]

LeBron played in all 82 regular-season games this season. And he hardly was able to take off the first round, averaging 34-10-8 over 41 mpg during the 7-game series against Indiana in which he made big play after big play after big play.

He went on to put together one of the great postseasons of all time. And he still had enough left in the tank to score 51 points in G1 of the Finals as the badly undermanned Cavs were in position to beat one of the greatest teams ever before Hill's missed FT and JR's brain-fart.

LeBron will be fine.

This was the first season Lebron played 82 games in his career and thats with never really having a semi serious injury issue.  Its a widely known fact that he took a week or so off, mid season, the past couple of seasons.  Nobody is denying his performance in the playoffs this year, it was incredible.  But to doubt that he will continue to do that isn't some Lebron hating, its biological expectancy.  Not to mention the competition in the West.  2017 was an anomaly, but sure expect that to continue. But hey, im just a hater 

[wadesworld]

This was the first season Lebron played 82 games in his career and thats with never really having a semi serious injury issue.  Its a widely known fact that he took a week or so off, mid season, the past couple of seasons.  Nobody is denying his performance in the playoffs this year, it was incredible.  But to doubt that he will continue to do that isn't some Lebron hating, its biological expectancy.  Not to mention the competition in the West.  2017 was an anomaly, but sure expect that to continue. But hey, im just a hater 

He also simply took off playing defense this season.

Unless all that matters is the chase down block, then he was All NBA Defense.

[MU82]

This was the first season Lebron played 82 games in his career and thats with never really having a semi serious injury issue.  Its a widely known fact that he took a week or so off, mid season, the past couple of seasons.  Nobody is denying his performance in the playoffs this year, it was incredible.  But to doubt that he will continue to do that isn't some Lebron hating, its biological expectancy.  Not to mention the competition in the West.  2017 was an anomaly, but sure expect that to continue. But hey, im just a hater 

Fair enough about your "biological expectancy" insight.

I didn't say you were a hater, though. I was just pointing out that this past season he neither took off a bunch of games nor cruised through the playoffs, and he still was able to get 51 against GS.

He also simply took off playing defense this season.

Serious question: Do you have statistical evidence to back this up? I didn't see nearly enough Cavs games during the regular season to know if this is true or not. LeBron hasn't been All-Defensive since 2013-14 and hasn't been a first-team selection since the season before that.

[wadesworld]

Fair enough about your "biological expectancy" insight.

I didn't say you were a hater, though. I was just pointing out that this past season he neither took off a bunch of games nor cruised through the playoffs, and he still was able to get 51 against GS.

Serious question: Do you have statistical evidence to back this up? I didn't see nearly enough Cavs games during the regular season to know if this is true or not. LeBron hasn't been All-Defensive since 2013-14 and hasn't been a first-team selection since the season before that.

I’m sure I could find some statistical evidence if I wanted to, but I saw just about every Cavs Playoffs game and he was guarding guys like Fred Van Vleet and Bojab Bogdonovic.

I listen to the podcast The Lowe Post and not only did Zach Lowe talk about how LeBron simply doesn’t play defense and gets his rest at that end of the court, even LeBron’s personal ESPN PR guy Windhorst talked about it, and that guy literally only has a job to follow LeBron from one place to the next and tell the world what LeBron wants the world to hear.

[MU82]

I’m sure I could find some statistical evidence if I wanted to, but I saw just about every Cavs Playoffs game and he was guarding guys like Fred Van Vleet and Bojab Bogdonovic.

I listen to the podcast The Lowe Post and not only did Zach Lowe talk about how LeBron simply doesn’t play defense and gets his rest at that end of the court, even LeBron’s personal ESPN PR guy Windhorst talked about it, and that guy literally only has a job to follow LeBron from one place to the next and tell the world what LeBron wants the world to hear.

OK, thanks.

Maybe it's just me, but I'd still accept him on my team.

[JWags85]

Fair enough about your "biological expectancy" insight.

I didn't say you were a hater, though. I was just pointing out that this past season he neither took off a bunch of games nor cruised through the playoffs, and he still was able to get 51 against GS.

I know, you're far more sensible than that.  But I feel the prevailing sentiment if you don't bow at the alter of Lebron is that you're just a hater.  I do think Wades has a good point though.  He got hid on that end of the floor most of the season.

And again, none of this is to say he's a scrub or washed up.  He's still a freak, but I don't think he could take on the best teams on his own at his peak (hey Kyrie), and can't now as he's aging.  But some people still think he's going to rampage through them somehow.

[Lennys Tap]

He also simply took off playing defense this season.

I thought defense (good, bad or indifferent) was a "team" thing. LOL

[wadesworld]

I thought defense (good, bad or indifferent) was a "team" thing. LOL

Let me know what the Cavs team defense was ranked this year...

[GGGG]

LBJ came out eight years ago and absolutely shut down Derrick Rose when he was MVP. He wouldn’t do that now. Whether it’s because he can’t, or because he’s preserving energy, I don’t know. It’s probably a bit of both.

[MU82]

I know, you're far more sensible than that.  But I feel the prevailing sentiment if you don't bow at the alter of Lebron is that you're just a hater.  I do think Wades has a good point though.  He got hid on that end of the floor most of the season.

And again, none of this is to say he's a scrub or washed up.  He's still a freak, but I don't think he could take on the best teams on his own at his peak (hey Kyrie), and can't now as he's aging.  But some people still think he's going to rampage through them somehow.

The beautiful thing about sports is that we don't have to speculate long about anything ... because the games take place and we get actual results.

A year from now, two years from now, three years from now, we'll know about all these things.

Thanks for the conversation.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I will give you the field and take the Warriors to not get to a game 7 in any Playoff series and win the NBA Title.  Winner can pick a charity to have the loser donate $50 to.

Losing JaVale McGee is nothing at all.  He averaged 9.5 mpg for them last season.  The Warriors also swept the NBA Finals.  I don't think it's going out on a limb to say that the Warriors would not have been in any real danger to lose to the Cavs if they didn't have JaVale McGee available, and I think the fact that that is even brought up as a "loss" for the Warriors just proves my point here.

I was taking issue with the statement that they were going to win the finals this year with OR WITHOUT Cousins. They lost McGee before getting Cousins. They were significantly better with him on the court in the finals than without. He's a rim protector and switched well onto LeBron, and you saw how easily they can be picked apart without a rim protector after Bogut went down in 2016. Games 1 & 3 easily could have gone the other way, small margins make the difference. The Cavs got lucky the East was so weak last year, it will improve this year, as will the competition for whoever comes out of the West. Ergo, without Cousins, it was not a foregone conclusion that they would win this year.

If Cousins and the rest are healthy, agreed, I give them a ~85% chance of winning it all. But without him, there were certainly not a guarantee this coming season by any means.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Unless a team makes a terrible decision, Zach Lavine is going to be terribly disappointed this offseason.

The turd thinks it's funny the Bulls may think he's "only" worth about $15 million a year. The potential is obvious but his shot selection, lack of defense, and inability to move the ball are glaring.

I'm fine if the Bulls are able to retain him for something reasonable but otherwise I have no issue with him leaving.

Meet GarPax:  Dumb and Dumber.  Four years, $78 million.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.chicagotribune.com/sports/basketball/bulls/ct-spt-bulls-zach-lavine-free-agency-20180706-story,amp.html

[GGGG]

Meet GarPax:  Dumb and Dumber.  Four years, $78 million.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.chicagotribune.com/sports/basketball/bulls/ct-spt-bulls-zach-lavine-free-agency-20180706-story,amp.html

I honestly think they matched only to show that they got something from the Butler trade.

[DegenerateDish]

I honestly think they matched only to show that they got something from the Butler trade.

Agreed. Terrible way to do business, bad money chasing bad decisions. I’d rather they say “we got Markkanen, and preserved future cap space” as a result of the Butler trade.

[forgetful]

Serious question: Do you have statistical evidence to back this up? I didn't see nearly enough Cavs games during the regular season to know if this is true or not. LeBron hasn't been All-Defensive since 2013-14 and hasn't been a first-team selection since the season before that.

Take this for what you will, I'm no stats expert so can't say what are the best metrics.

But this year Lebron was ranked 155th in defensive win shares (Henry Ellenson was 146), amongst NBA forwards.  He was ranked 231st in DRTG amongst NBA forwards.

There is a reason why the plan decided by Magic and Lebron to build the Lakers is focusing on surrounding him with tough defenders.

Harden who is maligned for his defense is substantially better in both statistics.  He's a guard so can't do direct comparison, but his values would rank him in the 90's for DRTG and top 20 for defensive win shares compared to forwards.

[wadesworld]

I like what the Bucks have done this offseason. It will be interesting to see what happens with Jabari. If he’s confident in his ability to stay healthy his best option might be to sign the QO, play on a discount this season, and be an UFA next offseason when all the stupid money teams spent 3 years ago comes off the books.

[4everwarriors]

Knot feelin' it four Ersan. And, reely knot at 7 big wons/year, hey?

[wadesworld]

Knot feelin' it four Ersan. And, reely knot at 7 big wons/year, hey?

It’s not great but it’s okay. Third year isn’t guaranteed so that’s nice. I’ll take Ers at 7 over Delly at 10 or Henson at 11.

[4everwarriors]

No a dude hoo sold his Quon house ta Illyasova wen he played in town beefour. Big sellin' point wuz he could play video games on da big screen in da theater room, hey?

[MU82]

Take this for what you will, I'm no stats expert so can't say what are the best metrics.

But this year Lebron was ranked 155th in defensive win shares (Henry Ellenson was 146), amongst NBA forwards.  He was ranked 231st in DRTG amongst NBA forwards.

There is a reason why the plan decided by Magic and Lebron to build the Lakers is focusing on surrounding him with tough defenders.

Harden who is maligned for his defense is substantially better in both statistics.  He's a guard so can't do direct comparison, but his values would rank him in the 90's for DRTG and top 20 for defensive win shares compared to forwards.

Thanks for the stats, forgetful.

[MUBurrow]

It’s not great but it’s okay. Third year isn’t guaranteed so that’s nice. I’ll take Ers at 7 over Delly at 10 or Henson at 11.

Agreed, there's only so much damage you can do giving out two year contracts. Chances are that its fine the first year and then even if it doesn't work out, is something of an asset as an expiring the second year.