Kolek planning to go pro
Wow. They look to be pursuing a challenge trial. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/16/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-team-volunteers-lab-controlled-human-challenge-trial
Skatastrophy already hit some of the main points. The problem with vaccines is that they are not really profitable. If it works properly, you very quickly do not have much of a product to sell. The best case from a revenue perspective would be for this to need to be administered regularly (not a 1-off). But even then, there is so much competition right now, where they are all largely using similar technology, that no one will corner the market.On top of that there are public pushes to minimize profit off these vaccines since they are so heavily financed by the taxpayer. All that combines to leave Moderna few options for long-term growth/profits from these discoveries. So, cashing out now based on a bit of hysteria, makes a lot of sense.It is also interesting to see, again, that right after Moderna releases this data, more promising results come out of other groups. In this case the Oxford studies, where they saw a robust T-cell response. That is promising in relation to other studies saying any long-term immunity will necessitate a robust T-cell response. I'm just excited that we are seeing promising results from multiple efforts. A bit concerned about Moderna's safety profile though, especially when they put this in people over the age of 55 (haven't done so yet).
Not good, Bob.Antibodies appear to be short-lived.https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/With-coronavirus-antibodies-fading-fast-focus-15414533.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral
Everything I’ve read over the last week or so seems to point to this being an attention getting headline, but not exactly how things work. I guess we should not necessarily worry about this and immediately connect it to short lived immunity. More to come I’m sure.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
Links and comment for the vaccine data released today (Oxford & CanSino) https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1285210634032951299?s=21
Right now these are the two vaccines I'm most excited/optimistic about. As I mentioned previously, their T-cell response (absent in the Modern vaccine candidate) is an important aspect of potential utility.
Step 2 is scale upStep 3 is getting people injected (good luck with some folks)
I still have concerns on what we will see in the phase 3 trials in Brazil. What happens when a person is exposed to SARS-CoV2 after getting these vaccines. Some previous SARS candidate vaccines ended up causing more severe illnesses. It seems, at least possibly, Moderna used their strategy to avoid some T-cell responses to avoid such a scenario. We need to see what happens in exposed individuals.
I'm not an anti-vaxxer by any means. But if I think they've rushed something out, I'll wait 6 months before getting an injection. I'll still be cautious about interactions with people in the meantime. I'm not judging anybody that chooses to wait a bit if a vaccine is out late this year/early next. That's a ridiculously fast timeline to be "fully vetted"
Might we see a world where we take the first available vaccine to slow this down significantly, while waiting for a better vaccine to confer better immunity in the long term?
Problem is if everyone makes the same decision we are screwed.
Honestly Rocky the same thought has crossed my mind, specifically with the political desire to announce something successful within a certain timeframe. I am watching the commentary from doctors after phase 3 trials, and if they seem convinced, I'm in.
I'd argue, if everyone makes the exact same decisions as me - we're in great shape. Masks everywhere, social distancing, very little contact with others. But I understand your sentiment.
I'll go first. Someone has to.