COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[WarriorDad]

No it's not.

This I think I understand *way* better than you.  Healthcare workers would love to give people testing and give them the peace of mind that they're either "fine" or need to quarantine.    BUT THEY CAN'T!  Are being told not to test people.  That's causing fear.

The blame lies with the Chinese.  However, they were very successful at squashing it once they realized what was happening.

To all the "it's overreaction" people.  Understand - this spreads *very easily* once it's inside your circle of trust.  Look at the MA Biogen conference.  Look at the NBA.  This is why isolation is important.

You believe the Chinese data?

[BM1090]

You believe the Chinese data?

I don't. But I don't really believe a lot of the "data" our country puts out either.

[rocky_warrior]

As I understand it from CNN, the tests that WHO put out are causing 47% false positives.  The CDC developed their own test which was much more accurate, but had a manufacturing defect.  Are you suggesting we should have pushed a test out that was wrong half the time?  Who would we blame then?

I'm suggesting that 75k tests is inadequate.  I'm also suggesting those 75k tests should already be processed, and 150k more should already be shipped to providers.

And maybe you should up your knowledge from CNN...lol...that was a good line WD.
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-policy/covid-19-testing-delays-shine-light-lab-developed-test-regulation-debate

Some of you have very low expectations for the greatest country in the world...

[forgetful]

I'm suggesting that 75k tests is inadequate.  I'm also suggesting those 75k tests should already be processed, and 150k more should already be shipped to providers.

And maybe you should up your knowledge from CNN...lol...that was a good line WD.
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/politics-policy/covid-19-testing-delays-shine-light-lab-developed-test-regulation-debate

Some of you have very low expectations for the greatest country in the world...

Testing is woefully inadequate, I've seen multiple reports of people only being tested after they are dead. That means they were spreading this in and out of the hospital, and none of their contacts could be traced or warned, until after they died from this.

That is criminally negligent on the testing side.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Using worldinfometers.info to track new cases.  Lots of data footnotes but it's the best available and the caveats are throughout this.

The first places to go to shelter in place have significantly slowed the rate of new cases:  The Bay Area, Washington, Massachusetts, Virginia and North Carolina are slowing this sucker down.  This is very good news to hear and monitor.

MN at national growth rate. The rest of the country get on it quick. IL and WI just updated and spiked.

NY/NJ, Florida:  Wake the eff up!  Way too late with the shut downs.

As to the politics, the USA is a republic. The governors and mayors have most of the power and responsibility. Two on the West Coast have been outstanding. NY is a shyt show. Put the blame down on all sides and get the job done. 

[MU82]

Some of you have very low expectations for the greatest country in the world...

Yeah, but at least we expect Marquette to contend for Big East basketball titles. First things first!

Our county just ordered all gyms, health clubs and theaters to close; that goes along with the state closing all restaurants (except for take-out service) and bars. All big malls have announced they are closing.

County officials are considering enacting a shelter-in-place order similar to what San Fran has. I wouldn't like that, of course, but I'd comply.

I get together with a group of guys most Thursdays to drink craft beer at a local establishment. I was out of town and missed the last few, and we can't go to that place tomorrow because it's closed. So we're gonna get together at my house, BYOB. Social distancing policies will be in place!

[Lennys Tap]

Just because you haven’t seen it doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. I’m white and don’t have any idea what a Chinese person feels like, but I can think about how I would feel if I were an Asian. I would feel like everyone thinks I have Covid-19, and I would be scared to be in public.

I believe in empathy. But I think yo’ve gone off the deep end on this.

[Hards Alumni]

People making $20,000 - $40,000 don’t have the luxury to “budget” their money.

Depends on the person.  I have several employees that pull 50k+ and live alone and have no car payment.  I can't fathom what they are blowing their cash on. 

[reinko]

Depends on the person.  I have several employees that pull 50k+ and live alone and have no car payment.  I can't fathom what they are blowing their cash on.

Boats and hoes?

[DegenerateDish]

This is fluid, but have been told Lightfoot is going to announce Shelter in Place for Chicago tomorrow. To be clear, hearing the announcement is coming tomorrow, no info as to when it would start. To be transparent I where I got the info, my wife works for a community college in Cook County, she's the VP of her union, and she just got off a call that was the directive forthcoming. She also said that the state colleges were going to announce that the next three Friday's are going to be earmarked as holidays, so no work from home those days.

My hunch is that Pritzker will maybe be the one that ends up making the announcement, with broader coverage of the Shelter In Place.

Also to be transparent, my sister (works for state of Arizona) said earlier this week that she was being told a national shutdown was to happen by today, so that did not come to happen. I don't want to share $hitty rumors, and I trust my wife/sister, so you can yell at me if when these things don't happen.

[GooooMarquette]

I saw these ideas stated by Elizabeth Warren on minimum conditions for any industry bailout.
(And for crying out loud, please don't go nuts because it's Elizabeth Warren stating them.)
Sounded like many of the statements mirrored earlier Scoop comments.

We’re not writing blank checks to giant corporations. Any taxpayer dollars that go to help big businesses during the coronavirus crisis should come with the following minimum requirements:
1. Companies must maintain their payrolls and use funds to keep people working or on payroll.
2. Companies must provide a $15 minimum wage within one year of the national emergency declaration ending.
3. Companies are permanently prohibited from engaging in share repurchases.
4. Companies are prohibited from paying out dividends or executive bonuses while they are receiving any relief and for three years thereafter.
5. Companies must set aside at least one seat – but potentially two or more, as the amount of relief increases – on the board of directors for representatives elected by workers.
6. Collective bargaining agreements should remain in place and should not be reopened or renegotiated pursuant to this relief program.
7. Corporations must obtain shareholder and board approval for all political expenditures.
8. CEOs must be required to personally certify a company is in compliance and face criminal penalties for false certifications.
Congress must set up an oversight body, modeled on the Congressional Oversight Panel and the SIGTARP program for the bank bailout, but with real funding & subpoena power. We need real accountability to make sure these conditions are met.

The only one with which I disagree is the prohibition of paying out dividends. For any stock that has a long history of dividend payouts (and especially the "dividend aristocrats"), the expectation of a dividend is priced into the stock. Thus, if that measure is approved, you are going to see strong dividend stocks (AT&T, MSFT and the like) take an additional hit. 

I would agree if they prohibited increasing dividends, but an all out prohibition of even existing levels would essentially be legislating a decrease in stock price, and disproportionately penalize those stockholders that buy dividend stocks.

[skianth16]

I'm working my way through the Imperial College study. A few interesting pieces have stood out so far. Anything not in quotes is my reaction to the quotes.

"Stopping mass gatherings is predicted to have relatively little impact (results not shown) because the contact-time at such events is relatively small compared to the time spent at home, in schools or workplaces and in other community locations such as bars and restaurants."

Please, Lord, let me attend at least 1 sporting event in the next 18 months. Someone put this on a billboard. In all seriousness, though, this does make me feel better about going to the grocery store and running errands. It also gives me hope that there may be a way to allow certain small businesses to remain open if this truly stretches on for more than a year.

"Once interventions are relaxed, infections begin to rise, resulting in a predicted peak epidemic later in the year. The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity."

The reasoning for this is still not clear to me. China seems to be getting back to "normal" but the model here doesn't see that as being likely to be true for long. I would love to get more clarity on this.

"To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more."

"Given local epidemics are not perfectly synchronised, local policies are also more efficient and can achieve comparable levels of suppression to national policies while being in force for a slightly smaller proportion of the time"

This helps support some of what we've seen from individual states lately. We may not need a uniform national plan to slow the spread of infections. I'd take that as relatively good news in the sense that we may not see a full national lockdown like Italy.

"The WHO China Joint Mission Report suggested that 80% of transmission occurred in the household, although this was in a context where interpersonal contacts were drastically reduced by the interventions put in place. Social distancing of high-risk groups is predicted to be particularly effective at reducing severe outcomes given the strong evidence of an increased risk with age though we predict it would have less effect in reducing population transmission."

[lawdog77]

Wuhan flu ain't nothin to f#ck with.

Maybe the Spanish Odonnell's can make a cover version of this. <throwing myself off the roof of my house>

[MU82]

The only one with which I disagree is the prohibition of paying out dividends. For any stock that has a long history of dividend payouts (and especially the "dividend aristocrats"), the expectation of a dividend is priced into the stock. Thus, if that measure is approved, you are going to see strong dividend stocks (AT&T, MSFT and the like) take an additional hit. 

I would agree if they prohibited increasing dividends, but an all out prohibition of even existing levels would essentially be legislating a decrease in stock price, and disproportionately penalize those stockholders that buy dividend stocks.

I had the same thought, Goooooooooooooooooo.

I can maybe see not letting them pay dividends while actually receiving aid, but I don't see why they couldn't resume after that period ends.

Other than that, it's hard for me to argue with any of this from Warren. These shouldn't be gifts, shouldn't be corporate welfare. We taxpayers should get bang for our bucks.

[Goose]

Per our lead China staff, the Chinese government are advising the population to limit big parties, overcrowding bars and restaurants and social distancing as much as possible. Nothing new there, but they are telling citizens to plan on this type of daily restrictions for up to 12-18 months. Like everyone, they are saying this new normal until vaccine is available.
I firmly believe that things are better in China than a month ago and their challenges were bigger than our situation. Large population, tight living space and lack of respect of social space made this difficult. Granted, they made some lockdown conditions but the cat was really out of the bag prior to that decision.
All that said, I am confident that we will return to some sort of normalcy in 4-5 weeks. I am a cynic by nature, but my family is trying our best to follow guidelines. I am keeping eye on China far closer than Europe and believe there are mildly encouraging signs.

[vogue65]

Triage in Bergamo
X-ray to determine condition of lungs.
Then you wait in line.

[StillAWarrior]

Boats and hoes?

Yes, and they probably waste the rest.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Per our lead China staff, the Chinese government are advising the population to limit big parties, overcrowding bars and restaurants and social distancing as much as possible. Nothing new there, but they are telling citizens to plan on this type of daily restrictions for up to 12-18 months. Like everyone, they are saying this new normal until vaccine is available.
I firmly believe that things are better in China than a month ago and their challenges were bigger than our situation. Large population, tight living space and lack of respect of social space made this difficult. Granted, they made some lockdown conditions but the cat was really out of the bag prior to that decision.
All that said, I am confident that we will return to some sort of normalcy in 4-5 weeks. I am a cynic by nature, but my family is trying our best to follow guidelines. I am keeping eye on China far closer than Europe and believe there are mildly encouraging signs.

I am certain they have stopped reporting cases and deaths but this plus the factory utilization’s show these efforts work.  They worked in Singapore and Korea too. 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

As I understand it from CNN, the tests that WHO put out are causing 47% false positives.  The CDC developed their own test which was much more accurate, but had a manufacturing defect.  Are you suggesting we should have pushed a test out that was wrong half the time?  Who would we blame then?

The evil orange man.  Duh.

[mu03eng]

I had the same thought, Goooooooooooooooooo.

I can maybe see not letting them pay dividends while actually receiving aid, but I don't see why they couldn't resume after that period ends.

Other than that, it's hard for me to argue with any of this from Warren. These shouldn't be gifts, shouldn't be corporate welfare. We taxpayers should get bang for our bucks.

I have issues with 2 (backdoor path to national minimum wage increase) and 3(permanent?? I get a moratorium on it for a period but stock repurchasing is a very legitimate practice)

[Pakuni]

This is fluid, but have been told Lightfoot is going to announce Shelter in Place for Chicago tomorrow. To be clear, hearing the announcement is coming tomorrow, no info as to when it would start. To be transparent I where I got the info, my wife works for a community college in Cook County, she's the VP of her union, and she just got off a call that was the directive forthcoming. She also said that the state colleges were going to announce that the next three Friday's are going to be earmarked as holidays, so no work from home those days.

My hunch is that Pritzker will maybe be the one that ends up making the announcement, with broader coverage of the Shelter In Place.

Also to be transparent, my sister (works for state of Arizona) said earlier this week that she was being told a national shutdown was to happen by today, so that did not come to happen. I don't want to share $hitty rumors, and I trust my wife/sister, so you can yell at me if when these things don't happen.

JB at his daily news briefing today said there are no current plans for more restrictive measures.
Assuming JB's not pulling the wool over everyone's eyes so this can happen at the end of the work week, a shelter in place order from the state looks unlikely at the moment.
But as you note, things are fluid and can change quickly.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I have issues with 2 (backdoor path to national minimum wage increase) and 3(permanent?? I get a moratorium on it for a period but stock repurchasing is a very legitimate practice)

I’m torn.  It is a legitimate practice but if you haven’t funded your company to survive through the cycles then you shouldn’t have done it.  Equity is permanent capital. Let’s remember Boeing is in this situation because they let an unsafe plane fly.  Stretched the leverage on the balance sheet (on heels of buybacks before) - then hit maybe the mother of all recessions.  Only the third one wasn’t self inflicted. 

[Pakuni]

The evil orange man.  Duh.

Usual suspect going this route.

[mu_hilltopper]

As for "China getting back to normal..."

https://time.com/5804136/china-coronavirus-quarantine-new-normal/

Life in China Has Not Returned to Normal, Despite What the Government Says

[jesmu84]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/03/17/student-loans-cuomo/amp/

First of many to take this step?