2025 MLB Season

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

    After you said "not enough data yet." So which is it?

?

Saying you would not be surprised something is true and saying there isn't enough data are not logically inconsistent statements.

[The Sultan]

?

Saying you would not be surprised something is true and saying there isn't enough data are not logically inconsistent statements.

But then it's an utterly meaningless statement.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

But then it's an utterly meaningless statement.

Making an educated guess but waiting on more data to make a definitive statement is utterly meaningless? I don't know about that. I know we reject science now but I think the scientific method is still a thing

[The Sultan]

Making an educated guess but waiting on more data to make a definitive statement is utterly meaningless? I don't know about that. I know we reject science now but I think the scientific method is still a thing

So 16 out of 32 instances isn't enough to make the statement "there may be some slight advantage" to winning the wild card round? C'mon...I don't expect much from MU82, but you're smarter than that.

[The Sultan]

He's not worth it.

Huh. Yet you responded.

Maybe next time you should respond with something smart and substantive. You make it too easy for me otherwise.

[MU82]

Huh. Yet you responded.

Maybe next time you should respond with something smart and substantive. You make it too easy for me otherwise.

Thanks.

I don't expect much from you.

[The Sultan]

Thanks.

I don't expect much from you.

Easy to say after I punched a hole in your "logic."

Next time come at me with something better. Otherwise it's like a cat playing with a mouse.

Honestly, we both know you don't have the ability though.

[Shaka Shart]

All this fighting. I miss when Charlie had just died when we were united in prayer

[MU82]

Easy to say after I punched a hole in your "logic."

Next time come at me with something better. Otherwise it's like a cat playing with a mouse.

Honestly, we both know you don't have the ability though.

Thanks.

I don't expect much from you.

[tower912]

Melton has good enough stuff.  He got torched in Cleveland, leading to the Guardians one good inning.  That was on Wednesday.  So I am a little surprised he gets the start on Saturday. However, he didn't throw that many pitches while getting lit up, so maybe they are treating it like a bullpen session.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So 16 out of 32 instances isn't enough to make the statement "there may be some slight advantage" to winning the wild card round? C'mon...I don't expect much from MU82, but you're smarter than that.

So first it was MU82's post was logically inconsistent, then it was that it was meaningless, and now is that you think he should think the sample size is large enough. If you have to keep changing your argument...

To answer your question, no, 16 out of 32 is not enough data to definitively state there is an advantage for the wild card winner. If the wild card teams go 0-4 or 1-3 this year, would you still say there is a slight advantage? No. 16 out of 36 you probably say a slight advantage for the team with the bye and and 17 out of 36 the best you can say is that it is a wash. If one year's worth of results can tip it from "slight advantage to one" to "slight advantage to the other" it is not a statistically significant sample.

Further, 16 out of 32 isn't even the correct sample. You're trying to rope in the wild card games when a wild card series is materially different. The bye is longer, the winner has to use more pitchers, there's a possibility of 2 win or go home games where the winner may have had to empty their bullpen to secure the win. The real sample is 6 out of 12. Same %, but even more statistically insignificant.

This also made me curious. Since the Cubs needed all three games, I wanted to see what the history is there. So far, only two wild card series have needed all three games. Both times, the winner won their divisional series (22 Padres, 24 Mets). If you're curious, I don't consider 2 examples statistically significant either.

[The Sultan]

So first it was MU82's post was logically inconsistent, then it was that it was meaningless, and now is that you think he should think the sample size is large enough. If you have to keep changing your argument...

To answer your question, no, 16 out of 32 is not enough data to definitively state there is an advantage for the wild card winner. If the wild card teams go 0-4 or 1-3 this year, would you still say there is a slight advantage? No. 16 out of 36 you probably say a slight advantage for the team with the bye and and 17 out of 36 the best you can say is that it is a wash. If one year's worth of results can tip it from "slight advantage to one" to "slight advantage to the other" it is not a statistically significant sample.

Further, 16 out of 32 isn't even the correct sample. You're trying to rope in the wild card games when a wild card series is materially different. The bye is longer, the winner has to use more pitchers, there's a possibility of 2 win or go home games where the winner may have had to empty their bullpen to secure the win. The real sample is 6 out of 12. Same %, but even more statistically insignificant.

This also made me curious. Since the Cubs needed all three games, I wanted to see what the history is there. So far, only two wild card series have needed all three games. Both times, the winner won their divisional series (22 Padres, 24 Mets). If you're curious, I don't consider 2 examples statistically significant either.

I have never changed my argument - that results show that there "may be a slight advantage" to playing in the Wild Card round. And my argument wouldn't change if it were 15/32 or 17/32 instead of 16/32. And it doesn't change if it is a series versus one game.

[HutchwasClutch]

I have never changed my argument - that results show that there "may be a slight advantage" to playing in the Wild Card round. And my argument wouldn't change if it were 15/32 or 17/32 instead of 16/32. And it doesn't change if it is a series versus one game.

Only you could be this self righteous with a maybe and slight as the premise of your argument. 

[TallTitan34]

Just grabbed a ticket in 422 for today's game.

Will be interesting.

[The Sultan]

Only you could be this self righteous with a maybe and slight as the premise of your argument. 

Thank you.

[#UnleashSean]

Maybe Sultan should go back to commenting on national marquette day drinking.

[The Sultan]

Maybe Sultan should go back to commenting on national marquette day drinking.

My suggestion is that you can start a different topic of all the things I've been undoubtedly right about.

[CreightonWarrior]

All this fighting. I miss when Charlie had just died when we were united in prayer

I think he goes by his formal name St. Charlie now.

[GB Warrior]

I think he goes by his formal name St. Charlie now.

I don't think he should get to choose his titles.

[cheebs09]

Cubs fans, what do you make of Boyd starting on short rest? Only 60 pitches on Tuesday and lines him up for Game 4.

Would be nice if the Brewers get to him early.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Maybe Sultan should go back to commenting on national marquette day drinking.

That's everyday in our house

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I have never changed my argument - that results show that there "may be a slight advantage" to playing in the Wild Card round. And my argument wouldn't change if it were 15/32 or 17/32 instead of 16/32. And it doesn't change if it is a series versus one game.

I'm not talking about that argument. I'm talking about your various arguments against MU82's post. At first it was the post was logically inconsistent (it wasn't). Then it was utterly meaningless (or at least more meaningless than any thing else posted on scoop). Then it was you had an issue with him saying the sample size wasn't big enough (which you can feel that way. It's bad math but again we reject science now so why not math too).

But saying you believe that "there may be a slight advantage to playing in the wild card round" and criticizing someone else for saying "I wouldn't be surprised if there is a slight advantage to having played in the WC round" is an impressive work. I personally can't find a meaningful difference between "may be" and "wouldn't be surprised if" but if you can, congrats.

[tower912]

Woo left off the Seattle playoff roster for this round.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Woo left off the Seattle playoff roster for this round.

Is What on second?

[tower912]

Is What on second?

No, Watt is a linebacker for the Steelers.