Grade Non-Con

[The Sultan]

Why is that? Maryland, Dayton, Georgia, Purdue, Wisconsin, those are all games that considering the location we were supposed to win. We did nothing to overachieve, so I'm not sure how you get to a B, much less B+.

An average grade is a C. Going 10-1 against this schedule would merit a C. But 9-2 with a required return game that never should be played other than as a buy game? That's below average.

But maybe I just had higher standards coming in.

I think your expectations are simply too high.  Even if they were 90% favorites going to every non conference game, the chances of them going undefeated were only 30%.

You get too wrapped up in numbers as absolute predictors without understanding that any human activity is going to have variables. Especially 18-22 year olds playing in stressful environment.

The "big" home non-con games are there not just to build a resume but to promote the program nationally and to STHs & fans. Dayton won't do that. Better to take a buy game and schedule a H/H with a program that's more of a peer next year. ND, Purdue, Bucky, Texas, those move the dial. Dayton is not that.

Marquette is going to sell season tickets and generate interest if Marquette is successful no matter the non-conference opponents. Claiming that ND is a peer, when they were significantly worse the last two seasons than Dayton was yesterday and likely will be next year, is interesting though.

[brewcity77]

MU has home and homes with Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin. You may know off the top of your head, but who in the country even comes close to that? Sorry, but season ticket holders are pretty spoiled to be expecting anything more than that in the non-conference. Replace Dayton with Arkansas Pine Bluff as a buy game and that's still miles better than what the schedule used to be. Having 4 quality home and homes going on concurrently seems pretty insane to me. Even if you don't like 1 of them, 3 still probably tops almost every program in the country.

Every year we have two marquee matchups at home:

• 2024: Purdue & Wisconsin
• 2023: Texas & Notre Dame
• 2022: Baylor & Wisconsin
• 2021: Illinois & UCLA
• 2020: Oklahoma St & Wisconsin (in a 7-game non-con schedule with COVID)

Dayton does not belong on that list. If you're going to break with the "we only give up home games for high majors" plan you must win both legs to consider it a success.

Maybe I'm just a harsher grader, but when you do (at best) what was expected of you, that's a C. When you do that while degrading your future STH schedule, that knocks it a letter down.

They can still have a solid season, go to a Final Four, but as of December 15, they've come up short of my personal expectations. If you personally disagree, then I guess I just had higher expectations of this team.

[Uncle Rico]

You're a f uckin troll moron

What grade did you vote for?

[HutchwasClutch]

I think your expectations are simply too high.  Even if they were 90% favorites going to every non conference game, the chances of them going undefeated were only 30%.

You get too wrapped up in numbers as absolute predictors without understanding that any human activity is going to have variables. Especially 18-22 year olds playing in stressful environment.


Marquette is going to sell season tickets and generate interest if Marquette is successful no matter the non-conference opponents. Claiming that ND is a peer, when they were significantly worse the last two seasons than Dayton was yesterday and likely will be next year, is interesting though.

Bingo.  This and blowing off Wisconsin and Purdue that they were both at home and expected to win any home game...they didn't just win those, they dismantled each of them in the 2nd half.  Go beyond simply W or L and where it was played. 

They had a great non con. Last night was disappointing, but doesn't take away from on the whole some very impressive performances against good programs. 

[wadesworld]

Every year we have two marquee matchups at home:

• 2024: Purdue & Wisconsin
• 2023: Texas & Notre Dame
• 2022: Baylor & Wisconsin
• 2021: Illinois & UCLA
• 2020: Oklahoma St & Wisconsin (in a 7-game non-con schedule with COVID)

Dayton does not belong on that list. If you're going to break with the "we only give up home games for high majors" plan you must win both legs to consider it a success.

Maybe I'm just a harsher grader, but when you do (at best) what was expected of you, that's a C. When you do that while degrading your future STH schedule, that knocks it a letter down.

They can still have a solid season, go to a Final Four, but as of December 15, they've come up short of my personal expectations. If you personally disagree, then I guess I just had higher expectations of this team.

You have expectations that are going to always lead to you being disappointed. Which is your right, certainly. But this was objectively a very good non conference performance.

And we don't know Marquette's full schedule for next year.

[HutchwasClutch]

Every year we have two marquee matchups at home:

• 2024: Purdue & Wisconsin
• 2023: Texas & Notre Dame
• 2022: Baylor & Wisconsin
• 2021: Illinois & UCLA
• 2020: Oklahoma St & Wisconsin (in a 7-game non-con schedule with COVID)

Dayton does not belong on that list. If you're going to break with the "we only give up home games for high majors" plan you must win both legs to consider it a success.

Maybe I'm just a harsher grader, but when you do (at best) what was expected of you, that's a C. When you do that while degrading your future STH schedule, that knocks it a letter down.

They can still have a solid season, go to a Final Four, but as of December 15, they've come up short of my personal expectations. If you personally disagree, then I guess I just had higher expectations of this team.

Not higher, unrealistic and ignoring the performances that made up the wins.

Also, irrelevant argument about scheduling that belongs in a whole other topic.  So I guess applying that and all home games are simply a W they started at about a B+ before tipping off against Stony Brook and could only go down from there.

[brewcity77]

I think your expectations are simply too high.  Even if they were 90% favorites going to every non conference game, the chances of them going undefeated were only 30%.

My expectations were not undefeated. They were 10-1. If we don't choke away a 13-point second half lead, we would be meeting those expectations.

You get too wrapped up in numbers as absolute predictors without understanding that any human activity is going to have variables. Especially 18-22 year olds playing in stressful environment.

If expecting a 13-point second half lead to result in a win when we are the bigger, stronger, more talented team, then I guess my expectations really are too high.

Marquette is going to sell season tickets and generate interest if Marquette is successful no matter the non-conference opponents. Claiming that ND is a peer, when they were significantly worse the last two seasons than Dayton was yesterday and likely will be next year, is interesting though.

If you don't understand the Marquette fan perception difference between Notre Dame and Dayton, I really don't know what to tell you. Most out-of-state Marquette fans I talk to consider them our biggest non-con rival.

I never considered ND a huge add from a quadrant perspective, but from a fan interest perspective, it was huge getting them back on the schedule.

[The Sultan]

We do know that they are hosting Maryland and Dayton, and going on the road to UW and Purdue. It would be nice to get another high major series started with the loss of the Big 12 challenge, but we will see if that happens. We also don't know about any MTEs, or neutral site games. But that's where they got the Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State games. (And Oklahoma State moves the needle a lot less than Dayton.)

But again, Marquette is going to sell season tickets because they are Marquette. They play in the Big East and have a great home court atmosphere.

[Uncle Rico]

We do know that they are hosting Maryland and Dayton, and going on the road to UW and Purdue. It would be nice to get another high major series started with the loss of the Big 12 challenge, but we will see if that happens. We also don't know about any MTEs, or neutral site games. But that's where they got the Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State games. (And Oklahoma State moves the needle a lot less than Dayton.)

But again, Marquette is going to sell season tickets because they are Marquette. They play in the Big East and have a great home court atmosphere.

I get what people are saying about Dayton not "moving the needle" but let's not act like the arena won't be hopping next year. 

I'd be a lot more concerned about something like that if Marquette was mediocre and they aren't.  They're one of the elite teams in the nation this year.

Brew is one of our smarter fans and posters but on this I'll disagree with him.

[The Sultan]

If expecting a 13-point second half lead to result in a win when we are the bigger, stronger, more talented team, then I guess my expectations really are too high.

I wasn't talking about yesterday. I was talking about the topic. You seem to think that performing 10-1 is only worth a C, and anything less than that is a D, because they were favored in ten games. But that's not how probabilities work.

If Marquette played 11 games and was 51% favorites in each one, I guess you would expect 11-0, but simple math suggests that a near impossibility.

If you don't understand the Marquette fan perception difference between Notre Dame and Dayton, I really don't know what to tell you. Most out-of-state Marquette fans I talk to consider them our biggest non-con rival.

I never considered ND a huge add from a quadrant perspective, but from a fan interest perspective, it was huge getting them back on the schedule.

You used the word "peer." Notre Dame was not a peer in any way.

[brewcity77]

Glad everyone is so obsessed with my grading. I wrote in preseason that I felt this team could be as good or better than the last two years.

If you thought this team would fall off without TK & Oso and are pleasantly surprised they didn't, then I understand your easier grading curve. I personally expected a top-10 team that would be neck and neck with UConn. Suffice to say, that requires a bit more accomplishment to exceed expectations.

Scheduling Dayton, just like scheduling Georgia on a football Saturday with no TV plan in place, was always going to put a cap on the grade. The team slightly underperformed, but part of my estimation of the non-con is how well it was planned and how well it sets us up for the future. The 9-2 record, FloHoops, and Dayton in 2025 are all knocks on this non-con.

[Uncle Rico]

Glad everyone is so obsessed with my grading. I wrote in preseason that I felt this team could be as good or better than the last two years.

If you thought this team would fall off without TK & Oso and are pleasantly surprised they didn't, then I understand your easier grading curve. I personally expected a top-10 team that would be neck and neck with UConn. Suffice to say, that requires a bit more accomplishment to exceed expectations.

Scheduling Dayton, just like scheduling Georgia on a football Saturday with no TV plan in place, was always going to put a cap on the grade. The team slightly underperformed, but part of my estimation of the non-con is how well it was planned and how well it sets us up for the future. The 9-2 record, FloHoops, and Dayton in 2025 are all knocks on this non-con.

Fair.  I get it. 

[ATL MU Warrior]

Glad everyone is so obsessed with my grading. I wrote in preseason that I felt this team could be as good or better than the last two years.

If you thought this team would fall off without TK & Oso and are pleasantly surprised they didn't, then I understand your easier grading curve. I personally expected a top-10 team that would be neck and neck with UConn. Suffice to say, that requires a bit more accomplishment to exceed expectations.

Scheduling Dayton, just like scheduling Georgia on a football Saturday with no TV plan in place, was always going to put a cap on the grade. The team slightly underperformed, but part of my estimation of the non-con is how well it was planned and how well it sets us up for the future. The 9-2 record, FloHoops, and Dayton in 2025 are all knocks on this non-con.

The fact that you are including a game on NEXT year's schedule to judge the performance of this year's team is a bridge waaaayyy too far for me. 

[brewcity77]

I wasn't talking about yesterday. I was talking about the topic. You seem to think that performing 10-1 is only worth a C, and anything less than that is a D, because they were favored in ten games. But that's not how probabilities work.

And you are only focused on performance. The record is one of multiple failings with this non-con.

If Marquette played 11 games and was 51% favorites in each one, I guess you would expect 11-0, but simple math suggests that a near impossibility.

Everyone else is asserting I'm using kenpom probabilities for my expectations. I'm not. Please stop with that assumption.

You used the word "peer." Notre Dame was not a peer in any way.

On the court, they were not. In terms of program, conference, and historical relevance, yes, they were.

[brewcity77]

The fact that you are including a game on NEXT year's schedule to judge the performance of this year's team is a bridge waaaayyy too far for me. 

Non-con performance is both the team performance and Athletic Department performance, IMO.

[The Sultan]

If you thought this team would fall off without TK & Oso and are pleasantly surprised they didn't, then I understand your easier grading curve. I personally expected a top-10 team that would be neck and neck with UConn. Suffice to say, that requires a bit more accomplishment to exceed expectations.

I had similar expectations. But they still have to play up to those expectations, so its hard for me to say 9-2 is a D.

[tower912]

So you are basing your grade not just on the court (one bad half of basketball with a healthy roster in 11 games), but on scheduling a home and home with Dayton in the first place and the Georgia fiasco.  I have to assume, unspoken, the scrimmage food issue.

If I understand correctly, your grade is for the whole program, opportunities missed or poorly managed, and one additional loss than forecast.

[HutchwasClutch]

All of Brew's arguments for his grade would not have required watching one minute of any game.

[Elonsmusk]

Are you using your own odds too? What you're saying is objectively false since Maryland and Dayton were both favored according to the point spreads.

And you said it yourself — what you're talking about isn't even related to the loss or purpose of this thread. You're just frustrated about Dayton being a home-and-home (to a bizarrely extreme extent, for some reason).

Clearly you misread the title. It was asking about your grade for Marquette's non-con performance, not the non-con scheduling. I recommend posting a new discussion thread if it bothers you that badly, rather than hijacking this one with an irrelevant diatribe.

We are in a golden era of Marquette hoops, best since Al McGuire, and you could argue better than Al's glory days - and BrewCity77 calls a 10-2 Non-Con record/schedule that featured a Top 5 Ken Pom team on the road, 4 Top 25 Ken Pom games, and 2 more in Ken Pom Top 40, a "C" or "D"?  C'mon man.  Perhaps BrewCity is rolling in his frustration over no tube steak available during the open scrimmage?

Dayton is a legit Top 25 team and obviously a tough place to win, and certainly a higher value strength of schedule opponent than Notre Dame.  I'm glad we scheduled Dayton.  The loss will give the team and staff some good film to study, learn from, and improve.

My grade btw is an "A," and I too had high expectations coming into this year - thought this was a Top 15ish type of team.  We are exceeding that.  Love this team and staff.

[brewcity77]

I had similar expectations. But they still have to play up to those expectations, so its hard for me to say 9-2 is a D.

Which is your prerogative. But coupling not meeting on court expectations with FloHoops. Dayton next year, and a run of 4 straight games that had us on Flo/FS2/FS2/ESPN+, meaning many fans couldn't watch any of those are all negatives that also impact the grade.

For me...

A - Blows away expectations (undefeated, #1 ranking, top-3 kenpom, getting Georgia & ISU on broadcast TV)

B - Exceeds expectations, accomplishing at least two of the above

C - Meets expectations, 10-1, top-10 in both AP & Kenpom, all games easily accessible to the casual fan.

D - Fails to meet expectations, 9-2, games difficult to find

Every time we have these grading things, I'm typically a harsh grader. I think y'all take my grades way too seriously, but if you put Dayton on the schedule, you absolutely have to sweep that, and even then it's still a half letter grade knock for me.

[The Sultan]

Yeah, I can't mix in the off court stuff with the on court performance. It leaves a bad taste in ones mouth for sure, but is completely independent of the team's actual performance.

[brewcity77]

So you are basing your grade not just on the court (one bad half of basketball with a healthy roster in 11 games), but on scheduling a home and home with Dayton in the first place and the Georgia fiasco.  I have to assume, unspoken, the scrimmage food issue.

If I understand correctly, your grade is for the whole program, opportunities missed or poorly managed, and one additional loss than forecast.

Yes. The record is just one part of the grade, but no, the scrimmage and other preseason failures are not factored in. My grade starts with Stony Brook, the team performance since, the non-con schedule construction this year and how it impacts the future, and game accessibility.

Georgia & Iowa State being streaming only are another big knock. That didn't impact me personally, but from a program perspective, those are a massive failure, IMO (which is the only thing that matters to my grade).

[Lennys Tap]

Glad everyone is so obsessed with my grading. I wrote in preseason that I felt this team could be as good or better than the last two years.

Nobody is obsessed with your grading. Pointing out that it is based on unrealistic mathematical and scientific data doesn't indicate obsession. Defending provably unrealistic expectations is where obsession enters the discussion.

[MUfan12]

The ISU TV situation was beyond MU's control. That was a Big 12 call.

I'll back you up on that Dayton series all day. Should we schedule SLU because there's history there? VCU because of Shaka? Davidson so they can avenge the first round loss?

I don't want to hear "Good for Marquette, a lot of high majors wouldn't play at Dayton." That's because a lot of high majors are smarter than MU.

[brewcity77]

Yeah, I can't mix in the off court stuff with the on court performance. It leaves a bad taste in ones mouth for sure, but is completely independent of the team's actual performance.

But the question was Marquette's non-con performance. For me those two are linked.

I'm sorry, but you fly to the Bahamas with no broadcast plan and get a top-6 matchup relegated to a streaming platform and can't get it moved to somewhere more accessible, that's a failure. No, not an on-court failure, but a Marquette failure.

And I mostly kept my Dayton thoughts in private conversations because, from a bracketologist perspective, it could be an okay addition if (but only if) you sweep that series. We basically handed them an at-large bid at our expense, and I mean expense literally because having Dayton on next year's schedule instead of a high major actively hurts the program.

We are Marquette. We aspire to again be the Champs of a league that has seen their best NCAA teams win 4 of the last 8 national championships. We should act like it.