Grade Non-Con

[CountryRoads]

D

My initial thought was B, but that was wrong.

Tonight should've never happened. After Green Bay, I was told we wouldn't schedule a road game that didn't get us a high major in return. This was already a low value game because it likely won't move any STH packages next year.

Winning at home is expected. Go 2-1 on the road, we're talking B/C. But 2 losses, including one that we never should've played, that's subpar.

I think that's a little harsh. The Georgia game was the horrible game to schedule though, not Dayton. We won so it was forgotten but what the hell were they thinking with that. I didn't mind this Dayton home and home. Dayton is a much better program than many high majors. Some who are afraid to play us (ie Notre Dame).

[brewcity77]

Oh god.  This again?  Similar to last year, we aren't the best team in the country.  We were never going undefeated.  We almost certainly aren't winning a national title.  Anything lower than a B+ grade for this non conference is nuts.

Why is that? Maryland, Dayton, Georgia, Purdue, Wisconsin, those are all games that considering the location we were supposed to win. We did nothing to overachieve, so I'm not sure how you get to a B, much less B+.

An average grade is a C. Going 10-1 against this schedule would merit a C. But 9-2 with a required return game that never should be played other than as a buy game? That's below average.

But maybe I just had higher standards coming in.

[MUfan12]

Home and homes should be for power conference opponents only, outside of Gonzaga. The downside to doing this with Dayton far outweighs any upside. There's a reason no HM schools do this with them.

[wadesworld]

Why is that? Maryland, Dayton, Georgia, Purdue, Wisconsin, those are all games that considering the location we were supposed to win. We did nothing to overachieve, so I'm not sure how you get to a B, much less B+.

An average grade is a C. Going 10-1 against this schedule would merit a C. But 9-2 with a required return game that never should be played other than as a buy game? That's below average.

But maybe I just had higher standards coming in.

For one I would've expected 3 losses in the nonconfernece and we finished with two.

For two that's a ridiculous way to grade.  Kansas was the top ranked team in the country in the preseason.  If they had gone undefeated in a non-conference schedule that included UNC, Michigan State, Duke, at Creighton, at Mizzou, and vs. NC State they'd get a C?  That's an A.

Even if Marquette was favored in every non conference game individually (which they weren't), that doesn't mean they were expected to go 11-0 in non-conference games.

We've moved up in every computer and human poll out there from the start of the season to now.

Don't be silly.

[wadesworld]

Home and homes should be for power conference opponents only, outside of Gonzaga. The downside to doing this with Dayton far outweighs any upside. There's a reason no HM schools do this with them.

It's a Q1 road game.  Who cares?

[brewcity77]

I think that's a little harsh. The Georgia game was the horrible game to schedule though, not Dayton. We won so it was forgotten but what the hell were they thinking with that. I didn't mind this Dayton home and home. Dayton is a much better program than many high majors. Some who are afraid to play us (ie Notre Dame).

Notre Dame is afraid, but they would sell season tickets and mini plans. Dayton next year will bring about as much interest as Northern Illinois, barring a massive roster overhaul.

A program like ours does not schedule a home and home with a program like that. If they want to be a buy game, that's fine, but not giving up a home game for.

EDIT: I agree that Georgia shouldn't have been scheduled. Though for the time we spent away from home for UGA & Dayton, might as well have participated in a 2-game MTE.

[K1 Lover]

Why is that? Maryland, Dayton, Georgia, Purdue, Wisconsin, those are all games that considering the location we were supposed to win. We did nothing to overachieve, so I'm not sure how you get to a B, much less B+.

An average grade is a C. Going 10-1 against this schedule would merit a C. But 9-2 with a required return game that never should be played other than as a buy game? That's below average.


But maybe I just had higher standards coming in.

I'm going to borrow your logic for a sec. An average grade is a C, so a C makes sense if we simply win all the games we're favored in and lose the ones we're not. We accomplished the former, and also "overachieved" by winning at Maryland as underdogs. Now we did lose two true road games (neither of which we were favored in), but I think you'd be remiss to treat all road environments as the same. There's obviously a very distinct difference between playing at DePaul and playing at Kansas.

Our two non-con losses both took place in infamously difficult arenas. Iowa State hasn't lost at home this season nor last, and Dayton has also won 23 consecutive games at home.

I personally appreciate your opinions and analyses perhaps more than anyone else on this board, but I gotta say, I have to disagree with your take on this one.

[BM1090]

B. Would have been an A with a win tonight.

The nature of the two road losses, and the fact they nearly pissed away an 8 point lead in 68 seconds at Maryland, have me concerned about their mentality away from Fiserv. They seem easily rattled at times when the crowd is really firing.

Agreed, but they've started out that way the last two years and fixed it each year. I'd expect the same this year.

[wisblue]

I voted B, but closer to a C than an A.

[DoctorV]

D

My initial thought was B, but that was wrong.

Tonight should've never happened. After Green Bay, I was told we wouldn't schedule a road game that didn't get us a high major in return. This was already a low value game because it likely won't move any STH packages next year.

Winning at home is expected. Go 2-1 on the road, we're talking B/C. But 2 losses, including one that we never should've played, that's subpar.

I read a few sentences into this and was convinced that you were pulling a Rico.
I was surprised to see you weren't.

You're a metrics guy so let's talk data.
Marquette has improved from its preseason metrics during this non-con season.
It's also been inside the top 10 in the AP and well on the national radar.
It has several quality wins that will make a difference on March 16th.

You complain about scheduling Dayton, but had Marquette not fallen apart in the 2H it could've gotten a huge win that would have put them in a good position for a 1 seed.
The loss doesn't help the metrics, but it isn't a massive blow.

Additionally, there is something to be said about Shaka not losing sight of his roots, and not forgetting the type of thing that got him here. Marquette is positioning itself amongst the elites, but that doesn't mean that it shouldn't give teams like Dayton a chance. 24 consecutive home wins is an impressive feat, maybe Shaka thought he had a good opportunity of ending that? Or maybe he felt like Anthony Grant and his program earned the opportunity?

Either way, it's hard to see this non-con slate being a near failure, especially after losing TyKo and Oso

[Lennys Tap]

Why is that? Maryland, Dayton, Georgia, Purdue, Wisconsin, those are all games that considering the location we were supposed to win. We did nothing to overachieve, so I'm not sure how you get to a B, much less B+.

An average grade is a C. Going 10-1 against this schedule would merit a C. But 9-2 with a required return game that never should be played other than as a buy game? That's below average.

But maybe I just had higher standards coming in.

Or maybe you don't understand math and probabilities. First, we were slight underdogs vs Dayton. We had (give or take) a 65% chance to beat Purdue, Wisconsin, Georgia and Maryland - which means we had an 17.8% chance to beat all 4. When you accomplish something against 6-1 odds that is not a C. If it were a very small group of Scoopers would have made it through MU.

[WolfganghisKhan]

Solid B. Don't think Wisconsin and Purdue will age that well.

[brewcity77]

Or maybe you don't understand math and probabilities. First, we were slight underdogs vs Dayton. We had (give or take) a 65% chance to beat Purdue, Wisconsin, Georgia and Maryland - which means we had an 17.8% chance to beat all 4. When you accomplish something against 6-1 odds that is not a C. If it were a very small group of Scoopers would have made it through MU.

We were favored in all of them, Dayton included. My expectation at home is to win. Any home loss is underachieving, so I pencilled both Purdue and Wisconsin as wins. And while I acknowledge there were tough games on the slate, my prediction at this point was 10-1. I don't grade on someone else's curve, I grade on mine.

You're a metrics guy so let's talk data.
Marquette has improved from its preseason metrics during this non-con season.
It's also been inside the top 10 in the AP and well on the national radar.
It has several quality wins that will make a difference on March 16th.

Or we were underrated in the preseason, and still haven't played to our potential

You complain about scheduling Dayton, but had Marquette not fallen apart in the 2H it could've gotten a huge win that would have put them in a good position for a 1 seed.
The loss doesn't help the metrics, but it isn't a massive blow.

After losing in Green Bay, Marquette decided not to give up home games for non-HM return games. I'm not complaining about the loss, but rather that this game (and Georgia, though for different reasons) never should've been scheduled.

The "big" home non-con games are there not just to build a resume but to promote the program nationally and to STHs & fans. Dayton won't do that. Better to take a buy game and schedule a H/H with a program that's more of a peer next year. ND, Purdue, Bucky, Texas, those move the dial. Dayton is not that.

Additionally, there is something to be said about Shaka not losing sight of his roots, and not forgetting the type of thing that got him here. Marquette is positioning itself amongst the elites, but that doesn't mean that it shouldn't give teams like Dayton a chance. 24 consecutive home wins is an impressive feat, maybe Shaka thought he had a good opportunity of ending that? Or maybe he felt like Anthony Grant and his program earned the opportunity?

Then someone should've told Shaka that we don't do that. If they wanted to come as a but game, like George Mason, Buffalo, Fresno State, Vermont, and other decent mid-majors have, then fine. But a program of their ilk should not be a home and home candidate.

Either way, it's hard to see this non-con slate being a near failure, especially after losing TyKo and Oso

Two years ago when Justin & Morsell left, people had similar falloff expectations because of what we lost. I focused on what returned and expected us to be better. I felt much the same this year. Maybe just different expectations.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

UConn has won back to back national titles, meanwhile this board gives out A's for losing two out of three road games.  We even tried to give away the Maryland game in the last minute, but barely salvaged the win. 

Not too hard to see why UConn has won six national championships and we've languished at one title and haven't been close since. 

I wish I could Xmas shop for this group as even the cheap, ugly sweaters I buy at the Salvation Army Resale Shop would be greeted as Christian Dior cashmere cardigans in the mind's of this group.🤷�♂️

🤡

[Vander Blue Man Group]

D

My initial thought was B, but that was wrong.

Tonight should've never happened. After Green Bay, I was told we wouldn't schedule a road game that didn't get us a high major in return. This was already a low value game because it likely won't move any STH packages next year.

Winning at home is expected. Go 2-1 on the road, we're talking B/C. But 2 losses, including one that we never should've played, that's subpar.

This is actually a serious post?

[CountryRoads]

The "big" home non-con games are there not just to build a resume but to promote the program nationally and to STHs & fans. Dayton won't do that. Better to take a buy game and schedule a H/H with a program that's more of a peer next year. ND, Purdue, Bucky, Texas, those move the dial. Dayton is not that.

MU has home and homes with Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin. You may know off the top of your head, but who in the country even comes close to that? Sorry, but season ticket holders are pretty spoiled to be expecting anything more than that in the non-conference. Replace Dayton with Arkansas Pine Bluff as a buy game and that's still miles better than what the schedule used to be. Having 4 quality home and homes going on concurrently seems pretty insane to me. Even if you don't like 1 of them, 3 still probably tops almost every program in the country.

[BM1090]

Why is that? Maryland, Dayton, Georgia, Purdue, Wisconsin, those are all games that considering the location we were supposed to win. We did nothing to overachieve, so I'm not sure how you get to a B, much less B+.

An average grade is a C. Going 10-1 against this schedule would merit a C. But 9-2 with a required return game that never should be played other than as a buy game? That's below average.

But maybe I just had higher standards coming in.

We were underdogs in two of those five games. We won four of them.

[K1 Lover]

We were favored in all of them, Dayton included. My expectation at home is to win. Any home loss is underachieving, so I pencilled both Purdue and Wisconsin as wins. And while I acknowledge there were tough games on the slate, my prediction at this point was 10-1. I don't grade on someone else's curve, I grade on mine.

Are you using your own odds too? What you're saying is objectively false since Maryland and Dayton were both favored according to the point spreads.

And you said it yourself — what you're talking about isn't even related to the loss or purpose of this thread. You're just frustrated about Dayton being a home-and-home (to a bizarrely extreme extent, for some reason).

Clearly you misread the title. It was asking about your grade for Marquette's non-con performance, not the non-con scheduling. I recommend posting a new discussion thread if it bothers you that badly, rather than hijacking this one with an irrelevant diatribe.

[PointWarrior]

This is actually a serious post?

He is still pissed at no hot dogs at the scrimmage.

[Johnny B]

You're a f uckin troll moron

[Lennys Tap]

We were favored in all of them, Dayton included. My expectation at home is to win. Any home loss is underachieving, so I pencilled both Purdue and Wisconsin as wins. And while I acknowledge there were tough games on the slate, my prediction at this point was 10-1. I don't grade on someone else's curve, I grade on mine.

Dayton was a 1.5 point favorite where I bet but that's not really the issue. The issue is you evidently don't understand (or don't believe in) laws of probability (math and science) For example, if a team has a 70% chance to win each of their next 10 games your expectations might be that anything less than 10-0 is an underachievement. But your expectations would be factually wrong/unfair. The laws of probability say that 10-0 will happen less than 3 times out of 100. You're free to have whatever expectations you want, I guess but when they are set so high that the chances they'll occur are a high improbability statistically they're not very realistic.

[MUDPT]

I agree that Dayton isn't going to sell tickets, but the margin of them vs. someone like UCLA or Maryland is pretty small to the ticket office.

8th best WAB in the country right now. It's an A for me.

[MUfan12]

I look at this series this way... If there wasn't a history with them there's no way in hell it would have been scheduled. I'm with Brew on this one... this year it doesn't hurt all that much, but they're going to suck next year when their average age drops from 27 to 19.

[brewcity77]

Marquette opened as -1.5 against Dayton and was favored in every advanced metric. I don't care what the closing line was, we were the favorite last night.

[HutchwasClutch]

Why is that? Maryland, Dayton, Georgia, Purdue, Wisconsin, those are all games that considering the location we were supposed to win. We did nothing to overachieve, so I'm not sure how you get to a B, much less B+.

An average grade is a C. Going 10-1 against this schedule would merit a C. But 9-2 with a required return game that never should be played other than as a buy game? That's below average.

But maybe I just had higher standards coming in.

This is an argument for another topic entirely, and irrelevant to the poll question at hand.