Looking Ahead

[1SE]

Oooff - D was there but just couldn't hit FTs or big shots down the stretch - too bad - but no point dwelling

Since these last two went how we expected sans Tyler, the next games take on some added significance. 0-2 might very well put us on the 4 line. Win 1 and we're probably a 3 (although I'd rather than win be @X then first round BET to be sure). Probably need to win 3 more to be comfortable with our chances at a 2.

Heaven forbid we lose @X, but would that chance the calculus about putting a not-100% Tyler in for the 1st round BET to ensure we don't drop to a 4? The first weekend results aren't widely different historically for a 3 vs a 4, but I would certainly rather play a 6 in the 2nd round (a Utah or Washington State) than a 5 (a BYU)

[TallTitan34]

We won’t be a 4.

[PGsHeroes32]

People gotta stop thinking we are dropping to a 4 seed.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

People gotta stop thinking we are dropping to a 4 seed.

There was an outside shot last week but it really would have needed everything too go wrong for MU. With Bama, Illinois, and San Diego St all losing, i think we are firmly locked into a 2/3 seed

[1SE]

There was an outside shot last week but it really would have needed everything too go wrong for MU. With Bama, Illinois, and San Diego St all losing, i think we are firmly locked into a 2/3 seed

I'll defer to the knowers of the S, but it seems reasonable to me that we could drop to 13

Projected Seed   Current Record & Projected Finish   NCAA Tournament Bid Odds   Seed Projection Detail
Seed   S-Curve   Team   Proj W/L   Bid   Auto Bid   At Large Bid   Avg Seed   1-4 Seed   1 Seed
1   1   
Purdue (27-3)   28-3   100%   53%   47%   1.0   100%   99%
1   2   
Houston (27-3)   28-3   100%   41%   59%   1.0   100%   98%
1   3   
Connecticut (27-3)   28-3   100%   44%   56%   1.1   100%   88%
1   4   
Tennessee (24-6)   25-6   100%   34%   66%   1.4   100%   60%
2   5   
Arizona (23-6)   25-6   100%   65%   35%   1.8   100%   28%
2   6   
Iowa St (24-6)   25-6   100%   17%   83%   2.3   98%   10%
2   7   
Baylor (22-8)   23-8   100%   12%   88%   2.6   96%   5%
2   8   
Kansas (22-8)   22-9   100%   9%   91%   2.7   96%   5%
3   9   
N Carolina (24-6)   24-7   100%   32%   68%   2.8   94%   4%
3   10   
Auburn (23-7)   24-7   100%   27%   73%   3.3   87%   1%
3   11   
Duke (24-6)   25-6   100%   38%   62%   3.5   82%   1%
3   12   
Creighton (22-8)   23-8   100%   21%   79%   3.7   78%   1%
4   13   
Marquette (22-8)   23-8   100%   17%   83%   4.0   71%   0%

[wisblue]

If MU falls behind a team like Auburn that has 1 Quad 1 win I will be appalled.

At this point I think MU’s chances of a 2 seed are pretty low, but it would be pretty disappointing if they dropped to a 4.

[MuggsyB]

Not dropping to a 4.  But we desperately need a healthy Tyko for rd 1 in the tournament. 

[HowardsWorld]

I think Marquette is in danger of dropping off the 2 to the 3 line. They need to win at Xavier and probably the 1st round of the BET to hold onto the 2 at this point.

[Its DJOver]

8 Q1 wins wins is tied for 4th in the country only behind UConn, Houston and Purdue.  People need to look at the resumes of other teams, not just be like an AP voter and move us down based on a loss.  Two Q1A losses don't hurt us very much if it all.

[HowardsWorld]

8 Q1 wins wins is tied for 4th in the country only behind UConn, Houston and Purdue.  People need to look at the resumes of other teams, not just be like an AP voter and move us down based on a loss.  Two Q1A losses don't hurt us very much if it all.

I think the Kolek injury will have more to do with a seed drop than the 2 q1a losses.

[tower912]

Are you implying (crime mystery music as the villain is revealed)......Florida State? (lightning flashes and thunder rumbles)

[Its DJOver]

I think the Kolek injury will have more to do with a seed drop than the 2 q1a losses.

I must have missed where injuries shows up on team sheets.

[MU82]

I like the way Oso is looking ahead:

"I know we lost tonight, but our goal for the season wasn't to beat UConn at home. Our goal for the season was to win a national championship. We still haven't done that, and that's what I want my legacy to be. ... Hopefully, we get Tyler back soon and get even more healthy. Everyone's bodies start to recover a little bit. And we're the best us in the tournament. That's the plan."

BTW, Shaka called Oso the best leader he's ever coached and the most unselfish great player he's ever coached.

Man, I really have loved watching Oso play basketball for Marquette.

[tower912]

I remember Oso throwing his arm around Ben's shoulders as they walked off the floor after a bad game from Ben.   You could see the leadership, the mentorship, the emotional intelligence.

[21Jumpstreet]

I like the way Oso is looking ahead:

"I know we lost tonight, but our goal for the season wasn't to beat UConn at home. Our goal for the season was to win a national championship. We still haven't done that, and that's what I want my legacy to be. ... Hopefully, we get Tyler back soon and get even more healthy. Everyone's bodies start to recover a little bit. And we're the best us in the tournament. That's the plan."

BTW, Shaka called Oso the best leader he's ever coached and the most unselfish great player he's ever coached.

Man, I really have loved watching Oso play basketball for Marquette.

Loved when Shaka talked about Oso and added that he was one of the best, not just athlete, to come through the university. Also said something like Oso doesn’t know how good/successful he is going to be, in life. High praise for a high character young man.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the Kolek injury will have more to do with a seed drop than the 2 q1a losses.

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

[Uncle Rico]

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

The committee is bias against Marquette because Al played in the NIT a century ago

[Goose]

I agree that TK's injury will help with seeding, probably more than most think. With a healthy TK I had Creighton and UConn as probable losses. Thought they might win one, but no promises. Not having him in those two games is going to payoff on selection Sunday, imo. That said, they need to win on Saturday and BET win is not needed.

[MuggsyB]

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

How so?  I feel like we'll wind up a #3. 

[wisblue]

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

It might help compared to MU losing those games at full strength, but it isn’t going to help hold off teams like Baylor and Iowa State, who are picking up big wins in the meantime.

I think a three seed is the most likely at this point.

[wisblue]

I must have missed where injuries shows up on team sheets.

They don’t show up on the team sheets, but the NCAA selection guidelines do refer to taking things like injuries and coaching absences into account when evaluating a team

I also understand that each team has an assigned committee member who is supposed to follow that team more closely, and report to the committee on significant items affecting that team.

Especially given the publicity it has received I’m sure the committee members are aware of the Marquette situation. But, there are teams that were already nipping at their heels who have won big games in the meantime, who probably would be rated ahead of them today. Baylor and Iowa State are the obvious ones.

[Its DJOver]

They don’t show up on the team sheets, but the NCAA selection guidelines do refer to taking things like injuries and coaching absences into account when evaluating a team

I also understand that each team has an assigned committee member who is supposed to follow that team more closely, and report to the committee on significant items affecting that team.

Especially given the publicity it has received I’m sure the committee members are aware of the Marquette situation. But, there are teams that were already nipping at their heels who have won big games in the meantime, who probably would be rated ahead of them today. Baylor and Iowa State are the obvious ones.

I think you're reading way to much into it.  It would make a difficult job impossible if they dove as deep as you are implying.

[MU82]

Actually,  i think the Kolek injury will help with seeding.

I was thinking the same. Unless the committee is convinced that Kolek won't make it back for the NCAAT, it makes sense to not penalize Marquette as much for the losses without him.

I do also agree with wisblue, though, that this can only "help" so much. Iowa State is actually winning actual games against actual Q1 opponents; one would thing that helps them more in the committee's view than the fact Marquette is playing without Kolek, no?

[Its DJOver]

I was thinking the same. Unless the committee is convinced that Kolek won't make it back for the NCAAT, it makes sense to not penalize Marquette as much for the losses without him.

I do also agree with wisblue, though, that this can only "help" so much. Iowa State is actually winning actual games against actual Q1 opponents; one would thing that helps them more in the committee's view than the fact Marquette is playing without Kolek, no?

Good news is to date, we still have more Q1 wins than ISU, and have an opportunity to grab another Saturday.  The committee has also not been happy with teams that have weak non-conference SOS.  We're at 17, ISU is down at 329.  We had a decent cushion built up between us and the 3's.  Right now, we'd still be a 2, but the margins have narrowed.  3 is still the floor though.

[wisblue]

I think you're reading way to much into it.  It would make a difficult job impossible if they dove as deep as you are implying.

Maybe, but you should watch the video the NCAA put out last year describing the selection process. There is a lot of voting and discussion over a few days to select at large teams, develop the seed list, scrub the seed list and  place the teams in the bracket. It would not be out of the question for Marquette to be involved in a discussion about the impact of Kolek’s injury on past and future games.