Looking Ahead

[Its DJOver]

Maybe, but you should watch the video the NCAA put out last year describing the selection process. There is a lot of voting and discussion over a few days to select at large teams, develop the seed list, scrub the seed list and  place the teams in the bracket. It would not be out of the question for Marquette to be involved in a discussion about the impact of Kolek's injury on past and future games.

Point of discussion sure, but there are not enough hours in a day or days in a week to have the in depth dive on each team that you were talking about, there are just too many variables. 

[MU82]

Good news is to date, we still have more Q1 wins than ISU, and have an opportunity to grab another Saturday.  The committee has also not been happy with teams that have weak non-conference SOS.  We're at 17, ISU is down at 329.  We had a decent cushion built up between us and the 3's.  Right now, we'd still be a 2, but the margins have narrowed.  3 is still the floor though.

Thanks for that SOS info. Very useful.

[wadesworld]

If Kolek is out through the BET and we lose to Xavier and then our first BET game, we better hope the CFP committee isn't doing the NCAA Tournament selection or we may be playing another game at Fiserv for Kolek and Oso.

[PGsHeroes32]

If Kolek is out through the BET and we lose to Xavier and then our first BET game, we better hope the CFP committee isn't doing the NCAA Tournament selection or we may be playing another game at Fiserv for Kolek and Oso.

That would only be if TK was also out for ncaa in CFP logic

[wadesworld]

That would only be if TK was also out for ncaa in CFP logic

Yeah, but if he doesn't play Saturday or in the Garden, can you really just take MU at its word that he'll be playing in the NCAA Tournament?

[Goose]

Wades

It is not that I do not trust Shaka regarding TK return, but I feel much better when I actually seeing him play. Until that happens my concern level will remain high. This team had one goal this season and we all bought in and fingers crossed they have a chance to accomplish that goal.

[MUfan12]

FWIW Tyler was telling people last night he's ahead of where he thought he'd be in the recovery.

IF, and the way this year has gone, it's a big if, they are healthy for the tournament this stretch will help them win at least one game. Someone's gonna have foul trouble, they're gonna need their depth to step up, and they have been tested big time without their floor general.

[wisblue]

Point of discussion sure, but there are not enough hours in a day or days in a week to have the in depth dive on each team that you were talking about, there are just too many variables.

That discussion would take no more than a couple of minutes while they are discussing and voting on teams to put on the 2 seed line.

[wadesworld]

It was a tongue in cheek line.

I do hope the committee sees that we competed hard against two top 10 teams without our All American point guard, and I hope they get to see that Kolek is healthy and playing next week.

Like Goose, until I do see Kolek on the court looking like himself, I will be anxious about the end of this year.  Would be a real bummer not to see this group of guys get a true run at it.  If it results in a disappointing loss earlier than hoped for, it is what it is.  But the true disappointment for me would be not seeing them get a real shot at a run with a fully healthy roster.

[Its DJOver]

That discussion would take no more than a couple of minutes while they are discussing and voting on teams to put on the 2 seed line.

Hard disagree.  If they're "giving reports to the committee on significant items affecting that team", and having "a lot of voting and discussion" (your words), there would not be sufficient time to do that for every of the 50ish teams in contention for an at large, as well as the 20ish single bid conference tourney champions that also need to be placed on the s-curve.  How do they compare MU games with no TKO to Kansas games with no McCuller, to Houston games with no Tugler to all of the other teams?  It would make an already difficult task impossible. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It might help compared to MU losing those games at full strength, but it isn't going to help hold off teams like Baylor and Iowa State, who are picking up big wins in the meantime.

I think a three seed is the most likely at this point.

I think we're still on the 2 seed line.  Iowa state is right there with us but we have a step on Baylor, Kansas, and Creighton. 2 steps on Duke.

We are completely capable of beating X without Tyler and that would be another Q1 win. That would keep us at a 2 no matter what IAST, CREI, or BAY do this weekend. If KU wins at Houston,  that might boost them above us.

After that, unless one of them win their conference tournament and we dont, we should stay a 2.

All assuming that TKO is coming back

[MU82]

FWIW Tyler was telling people last night he's ahead of where he thought he'd be in the recovery.

IF, and the way this year has gone, it's a big if, they are healthy for the tournament this stretch will help them win at least one game. Someone's gonna have foul trouble, they're gonna need their depth to step up, and they have been tested big time without their floor general.

First, not to go all "Source?" on you, but I'd love to know where and when and to whom was Tyler saying that stuff.

Otherwise, I totally agree with your second point - my son made the exact same point in a text this morning. Norman looked like he belonged yesterday. Stevie did some studly stuff. Gold played well. Those experiences can only help when we get to the tourney. The missing pieces are Ross being himself and obviously a guy named Kolek.

[wisblue]

Hard disagree.  If they're "giving reports to the committee on significant items affecting that team", and having "a lot of voting and discussion" (your words), there would not be sufficient time to do that for every of the 50ish teams in contention for an at large, as well as the 20ish single bid conference tourney champions that also need to be placed on the s-curve.  How do they compare MU games with no TKO to Kansas games with no McCuller, to Houston games with no Tugler to all of the other teams?  It would make an already difficult task impossible.

According to the video the NCAA put out relating to the process they use for voting on teams to be placed tentatively on the seed lines, each vote can take up to 30 minutes. I would assume that during that 30 minutes there is some discussion about the teams that are under consideration.

There can also be discussion when the seed list is "scrubbed" to see if any two teams should swap spots.

If there is no discussion during any of this process, what the heck do they do for 3 or 4 days before finalizing the bracket on Sunday.

If Brewcity has participated in a mock selection session maybe he can shed some light on this.

[brewcity77]

I haven't done a mock selection, but I have watched some of them to get an idea of the process. What they'll generally do is pull up resumes and discuss as a group. Typically, once teams are ordered, it's going to be harder for them to switch spots and they'll need a compelling reason to do so. That's why I don't put much stock in games after Thursday, because by then the order is mostly set and it takes something significant to move teams.

Right now, we're likely right on that 2/3 edge and it will depend on how they judge Kolek missing games coupled with his healthy return. I think if we beat Xavier and Tyler is back on Thursday and at least marginally effective, we'll be evaluated based on our play with him rather than without.

[Its DJOver]

According to the video the NCAA put out relating to the process they use for voting on teams to be placed tentatively on the seed lines, each vote can take up to 30 minutes. I would assume that during that 30 minutes there is some discussion about the teams that are under consideration.

There can also be discussion when the seed list is "scrubbed" to see if any two teams should swap spots.

If there is no discussion during any of this process, what the heck do they do for 3 or 4 days before finalizing the bracket on Sunday.

If Brewcity has participated in a mock selection session maybe he can shed some light on this.

You do realize how this is significantly different than how you started this discussion right?

I also understand that each team has an assigned committee member who is supposed to follow that team more closely, and report to the committee on significant items affecting that team.

If each team had an assigned committee member that was following the team more closely to provide a report, I would certainly hope that it would be more in depth than TKO missed two games. They would also have Oso missing CU, Stevie missing time, Chase missing time, Sean missing time. That's five different players spanning over half of our games. That's not a

That discussion would take no more than a couple of minutes while they are discussing and voting on teams to put on the 2 seed line.

couple minute discussion. Then you go and do that for every team among the 70ish team sheets, all while filling out the s-curve based on all the other rules in place (locations/avoiding rematches etc.) All while conference tournament games are still going on and throwing even more variables at you.  That is a weeks long process, not a 3-4 day long process.  You are reading way to much into a few off hand comments made by committee members.  They by and large are just looking at team sheets, which do not include injuries.  If you try to start going down that path, it becomes way to convoluted.

I'll also note that you again failed to answer my question on how MU with TKO would be compared to KU/UH without their respective players.  It's just an impossible task.

[wisblue]

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/ncaa-provides-a-glimpse-into-the-process-of-choosing-the-teams-for-march-madness

This article sums up the things I'm talking about.

Note in particular the following items:

"The process consists of multiple votes, discussions, side by side comparisons, scrubbing, team sheets, holding lists..."

"The process starts before the season, when committee members are assigned conferences to monitor during the season. Each conference has primary and secondary monitors who have monthly calls with the leagues for updates on statistics, injuries, suspensions- anything that could impact a school's performance."

To answer your question about injuries, I would expect that it would only come up in connection with "side by side comparisons". So, there would be no need to compare the Kolek and Houston injuries because the teams aren't close to each other. But with MU and Kansas the teams' respective injuries (and the teams' head to head game) might be considered in connection with which team should be placed ahead of the other.

If you have first hand knowledge that my understanding of the process is incorrect I would love to hear it. But, Brewcity's comments about observing a mock selection seem to confirm that discussions comparing teams that might be close to each other on the seed list do take place.

BTW, it is my understanding that all of the rules relating to placing teams in the bracket are not addressed until Sunday and after the seed list has been finalized.Your comment about all of the new variables brought in by conference tournaments going on is why conference tournaments do not have as much impact as many fans think they will.

[Its DJOver]

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-basketball/ncaa-provides-a-glimpse-into-the-process-of-choosing-the-teams-for-march-madness

This article sums up the things I'm talking about.

Note in particular the following items:

"The process consists of multiple votes, discussions, side by side comparisons, scrubbing, team sheets, holding lists..."

"The process starts before the season, when committee members are assigned conferences to monitor during the season. Each conference has primary and secondary monitors who have monthly calls with the leagues for updates on statistics, injuries, suspensions- anything that could impact a school's performance."

To answer your question about injuries, I would expect that it would only come up in connection with "side by side comparisons". So, there would be no need to compare the Kolek and Houston injuries because the teams aren't close to each other. But with MU and Kansas the teams' respective injuries (and the teams' head to head game) might be considered in connection with which team should be placed ahead of the other.

If you have first hand knowledge that my understanding of the process is incorrect I would love to hear it. But, Brewcity's comments about observing a mock selection seem to confirm that discussions comparing teams that might be close to each other on the seed list do take place.

The only time injuries are mentioned in the entire article is during the paragraph about the conversations that occur months before hand.

When they get to the actual process: "Throughout the process are discussions about the teams — facts only, no opinions — and occasional comparisons of team sheets, which have everything from overall record to strength of schedule. The NCAA Evaluation Tool breaks down teams' records in four quadrants based on opponents' NET ranking and where a game is played." they only mention team sheets, which do not include injuries.

Discussions happen, yes.  Scrubbing happens, yes. Can I conclusively say that the topic of injuries has never been brought up, no. However, nothing in the article makes me think that they will have an impact on our seeding.

[Its DJOver]

Of course discussion happens, I never said otherwise.  I said that the primary tool used to build the bracket is the teamsheeets, and the teamsheets do not include injuries. 

I also said that the amount of discussion required to include all the injuries throughout the entire season for all teams in contention for a bid would be far to large of an effort.  I think this is where the confusion lies.

[wisblue]

Lunardi now has MU at #10 on his seed list behind Iowa State, Duke, and Baylor.

[Uncle Rico]

Lunardi now has MU at #10 on his seed list behind Iowa State, Duke, and Baylor.

Lunardi is an idiot

[Newsdreams]

Lunardi is an idiot

Dung Lunardi

[wisblue]

I think we're still on the 2 seed line.  Iowa state is right there with us but we have a step on Baylor, Kansas, and Creighton. 2 steps on Duke.

We are completely capable of beating X without Tyler and that would be another Q1 win. That would keep us at a 2 no matter what IAST, CREI, or BAY do this weekend. If KU wins at Houston,  that might boost them above us.

After that, unless one of them win their conference tournament and we dont, we should stay a 2.

All assuming that TKO is coming back

I'm curious exactly what parts of MU's resume compared to the other teams you mention give them 1 or 2 steps up on them.

I would hope that MU is capable of beating Xavier even without Kolek. But it's far from a given. Pomeroy has MU as a 3 point favorite and a 61% chance of winning and that probably doesn't factor in injuries.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm curious exactly what parts of MU's resume compared to the other teams you mention give them 1 or 2 steps up on them.

I would hope that MU is capable of beating Xavier even without Kolek. But it's far from a given. Pomeroy has MU as a 3 point favorite and a 61% chance of winning and that probably doesn't factor in injuries.

We lost a Q1 win over night so its closer now,  but we had more Q1 wins, less Q2/Q3 losses and a much better SOS then those were in competition with. Plus the Kolek injury works in our favor.

KenPom doesnt factor for injuries, including Xaviers top two bench players being out. It also doesnt factor in how teams have been playing recently. In the past month,  Xavier has been the 150th best team in the country per BartTorvik. I think that's a more accurate rating for their current team than the 53rd ranking KenPom gives them for the whole season. Of course we could still lose but I'm very optimistic

[wisblue]

KenPom doesnt factor for injuries, including Xaviers top two bench players being out. It also doesnt factor in how teams have been playing recently. In the past month,  Xavier has been the 150th best team in the country per BartTorvik. I think that's a more accurate rating for their current team than the 53rd ranking KenPom gives them for the whole season. Of course we could still lose but I'm very optimistic

But it's Xavier's Senior Day. How is MU going to deal with all of that emotion on the other side?

[PointWarrior]

and those omni-powerful corsages they trot out for the seniors' mothers...

But it's Xavier's Senior Day. How is MU going to deal with all of that emotion on the other side?