[Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Bid Thieves in the Night

[brewcity77]

Conference tournaments started last night, so we break down three leagues that will be playing their tournaments this week with bubble indications, including one league that could feature not just one but two bid thieves if things break right for them. We also have an updated S-Curve and bracket.

Bid Thieves in the Night

[Uncle Rico]

Conference tournaments started last night, so we break down three leagues that will be playing their tournaments this week with bubble indications, including one league that could feature not just one but two bid thieves if things break right for them. We also have an updated S-Curve and bracket.

Bid Thieves in the Night

Put App State and JMU in the tournament you cowards

[FairWeatherEagle]

So I see STJ and SH are on thin ice in your bracket. Let's say 2 thieves of the ones you describe. Barring great things from them in the BET, do you think one or both are gone?

[Its DJOver]

Who are the teams that you think can realistically take a 2 from us?

I really don't see Duke doing it, unless they both beat UNC and win the ACC tourney and get the trophy bump.  Only 5 Q1 wins right now and 3 Q2 loses, plus GT can still slip to Q3. Baylor picked up their 8th Q1 win last night, and Iowa State can grab their 7th tomorrow. Think Kansas' only chance is to win @Houston, but they do have 7 Q1 wins already.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, and maybe Creighton are the only three that could possibly pass us without winning their conference tourneys (and at least 2 would have to pass us for us to lose the 2 seed). I think Duke and maybe Bama could pass us by winning out through their conference tourneys combined with us losing our next two and not making the BET final

[Its DJOver]

I think Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, and maybe Creighton are the only three that could possibly pass us without winning their conference tourneys (and at least 2 would have to pass us for us to lose the 2 seed). I think Duke and maybe Bama could pass us by winning out through their conference tourneys combined with us losing our next two and not making the BET final

That's about the list I came up with too (although I think it'd be a stretch for Bama, only 3 Q1 wins to date). 

As weird as it may sound, we should be rooting for a Kansas blow out tonight right?  Push K-State down to a Q2 loss for Kansas and Baylor and take away the opportunity for Iowa State to grab another Q1 win.

[DoctorV]

I think Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, and maybe Creighton are the only three that could possibly pass us without winning their conference tourneys (and at least 2 would have to pass us for us to lose the 2 seed). I think Duke and maybe Bama could pass us by winning out through their conference tourneys combined with us losing our next two and not making the BET final

What is worse-
Dropping from a 2 to a 3, or losing Indy to Creighton?

Dropping to a 3 AND losing Indy to Creighton would obviously be the double whammy. We all need to become big Villanova fans on Saturday. If Creighton loses at Nova and Marquette beats X I think it'll be hard for them to pass us, even though they still could if they beat Marquette again at the Gahden

[lawdog77]

Who's is worse-
Dropping from a 2 to a 3, or losing Indy to Creighton?

Dropping to a 3 AND losing Indy to Creighton would obviously be the double whammy. We all need to become big Villanova fans on Saturday. If Creighton loses at Nova and Marquette beats X I think it'll be hard for them to pass us, even though they still could if they beat Marquette again at the Gahden

I keep seeing people want the Indy region. Is that purely from a fan's perspective? I just want to stay out of Houston's region.

[MU82]

Tomorrow at Seton Hall, Saturday vs Creighton ... I'm a BIG Villanova fan this week!

Nova's playing well and definitely could win both. Obviously, just flawed enough to lose both, too.

[DoctorV]

I keep seeing people want the Indy region. Is that purely from a fan's perspective? I just want to stay out of Houston's region.

Partly but not purely.

Selfishly, I've already booked my hotel.

More importantly, I really think there will be a HEAVY MU fan showing giving our guys a big advantage for the first two games, UNLESS we draw a big midwestern state school with a rabid fanbase like MSU or Kentucky.

This team has shown time and time again to really feast off its fans and I think it'll be a massive boost that helps Marquette make the S16

[wadesworld]

I keep seeing people want the Indy region. Is that purely from a fan's perspective? I just want to stay out of Houston's region.

Houston has some injuries piling up, and they struggle to score.  If you're playing a 1 seed, it's going to be a tough game. Whether that's Arizona/Tennessee, UCONN, Purdue, or Houston.  Honestly, I think Tennessee might be the tougher matchup than Houston, because they have a big, physical, defensive minded team, but also have a guy who can go get a bucket on the other end when they need it.

[lawdog77]

Houston has some injuries piling up, and they struggle to score.  If you're playing a 1 seed, it's going to be a tough game. Whether that's Arizona/Tennessee, UCONN, Purdue, or Houston.  Honestly, I think Tennessee might be the tougher matchup than Houston, because they have a big, physical, defensive minded team, but also have a guy who can go get a bucket on the other end when they need it.

We won't be in UConn's region and I am not fearful of Purdue. I dont think Arizona will even make it that far. Tennessee does not have the physical guards that Houston has. I see Houston as a MSU type team with much better players.

[FairWeatherEagle]

Who are the teams that you think can realistically take a 2 from us?

I really don't see Duke doing it, unless they both beat UNC and win the ACC tourney and get the trophy bump.  Only 5 Q1 wins right now and 3 Q2 loses, plus GT can still slip to Q3. Baylor picked up their 8th Q1 win last night, and Iowa State can grab their 7th tomorrow. Think Kansas' only chance is to win @Houston, but they do have 7 Q1 wins already.

Oops misunderstanding....I meant (2) two as in the number of bid thieves... the article addressed bid theives from lower conferences....and I was wondering if STJ and SH are at risk. They were like 46,47 on the Cracked Bracket prediction.  So not the 2 seed. Sorry, I could have worded it different.   I would be disappointed if the BE got only 4.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Oops misunderstanding....I meant (2) two as in the number of bid thieves... the article addressed bid theives from lower conferences....and I was wondering if STJ and SH are at risk. They were like 46,47 on the Cracked Bracket prediction.  So not the 2 seed. Sorry, I could have worded it different.   I would be disappointed if the BE got only 4.

Get enough bid thieves and we could see the Big East with only 3 teams in the tournament. The current Bracket Matrix has UConn/MU/CREI as 1/2/3 seed and then Villanova, Seton Hall, and St. John's all in Dayton as three of the last four in.

[wisblue]

What is worse-
Dropping from a 2 to a 3, or losing Indy to Creighton?

Dropping to a 3 AND losing Indy to Creighton would obviously be the double whammy. We all need to become big Villanova fans on Saturday. If Creighton loses at Nova and Marquette beats X I think it'll be hard for them to pass us, even though they still could if they beat Marquette again at the Gahden

Losing Indy to Creighton would pretty much guarantee that MU has fallen to a 3.

I think it's really close now between Baylor, Iowa State, and MU for the 7,8, and 9 spots on the seed list and Duke isn't that far back. MU is already starting to appear as a 3 seed on some brackets that I follow. Games like Kansas at Houston, UNC at Duke, Baylor at Tex Tech, and Iowa State vs BYU could vault a few teams ahead of MU even before the conference tournaments, especially if MU loses at Xavier.

I know my opinion isn't very popular, but I don't think MU falling to a 3 seed by itself would have a significant impact on their ability to advance in the tournament. The specific teams in their path would be much more important.

I'll probably have more to say about this as we get closer to Selection Sunday.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I know my opinion isn't very popular, but I don't think MU falling to a 3 seed by itself would have a significant impact on their ability to advance in the tournament. The specific teams in their path would be much more important.

This is a perfectly fine opinion. It was when your opinion that it had no impact that it was unpopular.

[Carl]

Question for Brew or any other bracketologist out there. If creighton passes Marquette and grabs Indy, (likely MU is on the 3 line here) does that put them in Omaha?

[DoctorV]

Question for Brew or any other bracketologist out there. If creighton passes Marquette and grabs Indy, (likely MU is on the 3 line here) does that put them in Omaha?

Brew has said that in that scenario it would more than likely mean that Marquette has also fallen behind 2 B12 teams that lock up Omaha, and then the next most likely spot is Pittsburgh.

So, I would guess the next most likely destination, if not Indy, is Pittsburgh. I'm cool with that since I've never been and have always wanted to go, but prefer Indy by a wide margin for reasons I've already stated