How important is the 2nd weekend to you?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

When people say the second weekend, do they mean the Sweet 16 or the elite 8? Second weekend would imply we won our sweet 16 game.

No it doesnt. "Making the second weekend" means you made it to at least the Sweet 16. If you lose in the Sweet 16, you still made the second weekend

[MUfan12]

In 14 years as a head coach, Shaka has made it to the Sweet 16 once. That was his Final 4 team.

Last season, three Big East teams made the Sweet 16, two the Elite 8.  Its Go Time

If it doesn't happen with this group, this year, I don't know when it will.

That said... roster construction has to change to get MU to the point where we don't fret about second round games. Have to start valuing shooting more and just get bigger across the board. MU has been stuffed in a locker too many times this season.

[Jay Bee]

I'll need to review team GPA before making a decision

[CountryRoads]

In the general case, it doesn't mean much to me in any specific year. Having a good team for 5 months and consistently giving yourself a chance to make a run is more valuable to me as I think eventually the odds favor breaking through to the second weekend here and there.

Though for this specific year, it's very important to make a deep run and anything less would be seen as a failure for this group.

Once MU has had some second weekend success, I'll go back to putting more weight on being a regularly contending team over the course of the season rather than a single elimination crapshoot tournament. Important tournament coming up for the program in a month.

[HowardsWorld]

In the general case, it doesn't mean much to me in any specific year. Having a good team for 5 months and consistently giving yourself a chance to make a run is more valuable to me as I think eventually the odds favor breaking through to the second weekend here and there.

Though for this specific year, it's very important to make a deep run and anything less would be seen as a failure for this group.

Once MU has had some second weekend success, I'll go back to putting more weight on being a regularly contending team over the course of the season rather than a single elimination crapshoot tournament. Important tournament coming up for the program in a month.

I agree with what you are saying however, if not this year its probably going to be a few years. Shaka has shown the inability to play freshman or recruit those who can come in right away. If we lose the players everyone is thinking we are going to lose next year we might be a bubble team at best.

[Elonsmusk]

I would love to make at least the 2nd weekend to silence the casuals who think March is all that matters.

And since Marquette doesn't have to worry about playing in UConn's region, the Final Four is very possible.

But I recognize the tournament is an unforgiving beast. Jay Wright had a 5 year stretch where Villanova was either a 1 or 2 seed.  Three times they lost in the 2nd round.  But those are pretty much forgotten because the other two years were National Champions.

The regular season is more forgiving. Losses to Butler and Seton Hall in conference play are just a blip because the team gets to keep playing.  In the tournament, the party's over.

Until Shaka makes deep tourney runs, 1st weekend exits will always be lamented for what could have been.  But we know this: Shaka can build a BE champ and teams that can earn 2/3 seeds.  We've seen elite offense last year.  This year we've seen very good to great defense.

All of the elements for longterm success are there.  Consistent recruiting and player development will lead to more bites at the apple.  Hopefully this March will be the first of many long tournament runs.  But even if this season ends in disappointment, the longterm outlook remains strong.

This right here.  Yes, the Shaka only has 1 Sweet 16 in his 14 years as a Head Coach is an underwhelming stat for sure, but eventually greatness will overcome some bad luck/performances in the NCAA tournament.  Shaka is brilliant and he will get us to second weekends and beyond consistently, barring any major shift in NIL/pay for play dynamics.

I'll be very disappointed if we don't make the 2nd weekend this year, and will say disappointed if we don't make the Elite 8.  But, even if we don't make the Sweet 16 it won't diminish my belief that Shaka is a star.

I do think that the accelerated success MU has had under Shaka has raised the bar very high for what is "acceptable" and "unacceptable" as far as March success.  Year 1 nobody in their right mind felt MU could be an NCAA team, and we were - and then got matchup up against National Runner Up UNC in the first round.  Last year we get Kolek injured and a second round draw with Michigan State, who I believe Izzo is something like 24-6 in Round of 32 games.  Not an easy draw.

[Elonsmusk]

I agree with what you are saying however, if not this year its probably going to be a few years. Shaka has shown the inability to play freshman or recruit those who can come in right away. If we lose the players everyone is thinking we are going to lose next year we might be a bubble team at best.

I'd disagree with this - we haven't had enough time to really judge this.  Last year Sean, Chase and Ben all added solid value to the team.  This year, the team is deeper and to expect Tre or Zaide to leapfrog Sean or Chase isn't exactly to be expected.  Amadou has a ton of potential.  I'll give you that Ellis and Itjere were misses, however.

Shaka also identified and got Morsell, Kolek and O-Max for Year 1.  Sean, Chase, Tre, Zaide and next year Demarious Owens are all bigger/more physical guards than Kam/Stevie were.  Stevie of course is a true warrior and plays well above his weight, but the general point is it take a little time for the roster to fully shift to Shaka's vision of a Big East caliber talent.

[Galway Eagle]

  Sean, Chase, Tre, Zaide and next year Demarious Owens are all bigger/more physical guards than Kam/Stevie were. 

He's smaller than Markus and Rowsey who were referred to as midgets. I agree with the broader point but Sean has no business on that list of "bigger guards" I guess he's built thicker but he's a small guy in stature.

[4everwarriors]

Can't get to the FF without winning past da first and second weekends, aina?

[Pakuni]

The correct answer is somewhere between the second and third option.
Not making it to the second weekend with this group would be a massive gut punch that no "tourney is a crapshoot" excuse-making can justify.
If Shaka can't get his best team, probably ever, past a likely 7 or 10 seed (or worse, a 15 seed), it's a terrible look. It's not www.fireshaka.com time, nor does his seat heat up very much, but it would lead a reasonable person to wonder whether he's a one-hit wonder when it comes to tourney success, and that hit was more than a decade ago.

[NCMUFan]

I think MUs chances of getting past the first weekend is good.
However, if MU's opposing team has an Edey or sleeping superstar like Stephen Curry or Ja Morant, could be over quickly.

After DePaul, it is a tough final part of conference schedule. 
Will learn more about this team.
I think Marquette will be battle ready for the National Tournament.

[Pakuni]

After DePaul, it is a tough final part of conference schedule. 
Will learn more about this team.
I think Marquette will be battle ready for the National Tournament.

UConn and @Creighton are very tough. Two against Xavier and home vs a Hopkins-less Providence are very winnable games.
Anything less than 4-2 down the stretch would be disappointing.

[wisblue]

I appreciate that you put the metric out there (0-5) - but that's the counterfactual for the 60% "trust the process" folks - what's the magic number of flameouts? 

FWIW I really really really think we'll get it done this year. I can't image there is anything Tyler (and the rest) wants to do more than expunge the taste of MSU.

By the standards set by some here Al McGuire wouldn't have been around long enough to reach the Final Four in 1974. He has his share of flameouts in an era with much less parity before getting to one. In those days they usually only had to win a gimme over a MAC or OVC team to get into the round of 16. But they took several losses against Kentucky and Big 10 teams (some that were significant underdogs) before breaking through.

[The Sultan]

I appreciate that you put the metric out there (0-5) - but that's the counterfactual for the 60% "trust the process" folks - what's the magic number of flameouts? 

FWIW I really really really think we'll get it done this year. I can't image there is anything Tyler (and the rest) wants to do more than expunge the taste of MSU.

There really isn't a magical number of flameouts. As long as the team is competitive, regularly makes the tournament, and sells a lot of tickets, Marquette will keep Shaka around for as long as he wants.

[Uncle Rico]

By the standards set by some here Al McGuire wouldn't have been around long enough to reach the Final Four in 1974. He has his share of flameouts in an era with much less parity before getting to one. In those days they usually only had to win a gimme over a MAC or OVC team to get into the round of 16. But they took several losses against Kentucky and Big 10 teams before breaking through.

The Sweet 16 wasn't a thing until the tournament expanded.  Maybe you can make an argument it started to matter after they expanded to 32 teams in '74.

Being an independent didn't hurt, either

[wadesworld]

There really isn't a magical number of flameouts. As long as the team is competitive, regularly makes the tournament, and sells a lot of tickets, Marquette will keep Shaka around for as long as he wants.

As they should.  If you're consistently a 7-10 seed and never advancing to the second weekend, then maybe it's a problem.

But if you're consistently a top 10 team and a 2-3 seed, you keep rolling with that, even if you have disappointing March results.  Just keep taking bites at the apple and eventually you'll break through.  Jay Wright couldn't win in March until he could.  Tony Bennett same story.  Scott Drew same story (although he was at a historically difficult school to win at, unlike the other 2).

Shaka will break through if he keeps having teams like the last 2 years.  He's proven he can exceed lower expectations, and meet higher expectations.

[MU82]

I will be disappointed if we don't get to the Final Four ... just as I was last year. And when we get to the Final Four, I'll be disappointed if we don't win the title.

Like all fans, I always want more.

I'm also realistic and I understand the nature of the NCAA Tournament. I won't like a first-weekend exit (or a second-weekend exit, for that matter).  I'll be grumpy for a day or 3. But as is the case with most here (I hope), my happiness in life isn't defined by what my alma mater's basketball team does. I'll get over it, I'll have a great summer with my family and friends, and I'll be psyched for next season to begin.

[Uncle Rico]

National title or bust

[MUbiz]

National title or bust

Rico gets it.

[DoctorV]

In 14 years as a head coach, Shaka has made it to the Sweet 16 once. That was his Final 4 team.

Last season, three Big East teams made the Sweet 16, two the Elite 8.  Its Go Time

Exactly. Shaka, more than anyone, knows that this is the year to get that monkey off his back.

He doesn't need the extra pressure, but rest assured he knows this.
I'm counting on TyKo/Oso/ and maybe even Kam to give not only themselves and their teammates, the entire fanbase, and especially their Coach this gift.

It would be a great parting gift for all that Shaka has helped give them

[Zog from Margo]

We have short memories and get greedy quickly. Shaka inherited a program that, in the seven years prior to his arrival, had two winning seasons in conference, two NCAA tournament bids, no NCAA wins, no BE titles, and no BE tournament titles. In his three seasons at MU, Shaka will have three winning conference seasons, both a BE conference title and a BE tournament title, three NCAA bids, and an NCAA tournament win. Makes complete sense that fans will start to have doubts about Shaka if he doesn't make it to the Elite 8 this year, but we had fans still wanting to hang on to Wojo.

[Newsdreams]

If Shaka fails to make the second weekend, it's very likely Willie will call him and/or his players dung or refer to genitalia or other orifices to describe them.

He will also likely give Shaka a nickname from which he will never recover from leading him to take the Michigan job and Marquette will hire Brian Wardle

I'm ready for Wardle to come home and get rid of all the dung

[Newsdreams]

I'll need to review team GPA before making a decision

Well Kolek can't read

[brewcity77]

I'm a bit surprised Brew given your normally measured takes. Are you honestly saying you wouldn't be thrilled with a FF run this year? This is a very good team - but arguably last year's team was as good and we certainly aren't a UCONN (or even Purdue or UH). In my book, a FF would be fantastic - a title of course would be amazing beyond words.

I want a title before I shed this mortal coil. Considering how rare opportunities like this are, when these seasons come along, until we get one, I'm title or bust. Last year was all house money because while I thought we were good, we exceeded my expectations. Next year, with likely a lesser roster, I'll have lower expectations so S16 would probably blow me away. But any year we're in that NC mix (until we win one) I'm going to sadly be looking at that as the only success. Which sucks, because even when you're the best team in the country, winning a 6-game single-elimination tournament is incredibly unlikely.

[MochaJoe]

Ultimately success is determined from post season accomplishments. Last season was fun but it will always be a "what if" for me. If TKO was healthy, we could've accomplished so much more.

This season is no different. It's a fun journey during the regular season, but losing during the first weekend would be a massive disappointment. I would even consider losing in the s16 a disappointment this year.