NFL playoffs.

[Jay Bee]

Thanks.  Luckily, as a Christian, I don't gamble and just pick scores for fun.

Word

[MU82]

Saw this stat posted on X-twit. (I never heard of the person who posted it, nor do I know if it's correct):

Before tonight, the Lions went for it on fourth-and-3 or less in plus territory 20 times in 24 opportunities, and converted on 17 of 20 (15-18 regular season, 2-2 playoffs.)

https://twitter.com/jadubin5/status/1751815428660228135?s=46&t=o_YcooE_NLDk6nCdvDo7Hw&.tsrc=1317

That's 85%.

I then looked up the success rate of Detroit K Michael Badgley from 40-49 yards in his very well-traveled career: 37 of 48.

That's 77.1%.

I obviously get the arguments from both sides, and the results say Campbell was wrong. Had the 4th-down plays succeeded - as they did 85% of the time for Detroit this season - he'd have been right. Had he gone for FGs instead and Badgley missed them, Campbell would have been wrong. Had one of the FG attempts been blocked and returned for a TD, Campbell would have been insane.

It's a results business.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Saw this stat posted on X-twit. (I never heard of the person who posted it, nor do I know if it's correct):

Before tonight, the Lions went for it on fourth-and-3 or less in plus territory 20 times in 24 opportunities, and converted on 17 of 20 (15-18 regular season, 2-2 playoffs.)

https://twitter.com/jadubin5/status/1751815428660228135?s=46&t=o_YcooE_NLDk6nCdvDo7Hw&.tsrc=1317

That's 85%.

I then looked up the success rate of Detroit K Michael Badgley from 40-49 yards in his very well-traveled career: 37 of 48.

That's 77.1%.

I obviously get the arguments from both sides, and the results say Campbell was wrong. Had the 4th-down plays succeeded - as they did 85% of the time for Detroit this season - he'd have been right. Had he gone for FGs instead and Badgley missed them, Campbell would have been wrong. Had one of the FG attempts been blocked and returned for a TD, Campbell would have been insane.

It's a results business.

And a punt inside the 10 would have resulted in a 90%+ success rate for the Lions (no FG or TD for the Niners). With that lead in the 2nd half, that is not much confidence in his defense who helped build that lead.

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/01/drive-results.html?m=1

[MU82]

And a punt inside the 10 would have resulted in a 90%+ success rate for the Lions (no FG or TD for the Niners). With that lead in the 2nd half, that is not much confidence in his defense who helped build that lead.

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/01/drive-results.html?m=1

I doubt he considered punting from the 30-yard line but maybe he should have. However, I think you're right about him not having much confidence in his defense. He mentioned at his press conference that he was afraid that if he kicked the tying FG the 49ers might run out the clock before winning right at the end.

[Jay Bee]

P33 down the leg. Sorry 4 tower

[Pakuni]

People are way more likely to be busy with other things on a Saturday than they would be late afternoon on Sunday.

I imagine the league's long-term goal is to extend the playoffs or regular season another week, moving the Super Bowl back another week and making it a part of the Presidents' Day weekend.

[tower912]

Since the Seattle loss where Campbell played for the tie in regulation and then lost in overtime every single time that it came down to a choice between trusting his offense to make a play (ice the game, play for a win vs a tie) versus trusting his defense to get a stop, Campbell chose his offense.   The analytics and his history were on his side.   Alas.
     He probably regrets kicking the field goal at the end of the half more than he does his fourth down choices.

[JWags85]

This is obviously completely qualitative, but I think a big reason for the Lions success was the culture, indentity, and swagger that Campbell brought and instilled.  A big help in getting past the stigma of being the Lions and their past failures, IMO, was the hard charging aggressive style he brought and cultivated.

So while there may not be specific analytics to suggest their 4th down strategy brought X amount of wins, I think its not crazy to suggest that Campbell's mentality and approach to things like that are a reason for their success and big leap. 

[Jay Bee]

This is obviously completely qualitative, but I think a big reason for the Lions success was the culture, indentity, and swagger that Campbell brought and instilled.  A big help in getting past the stigma of being the Lions and their past failures, IMO, was the hard charging aggressive style he brought and cultivated.

Also, lots of close wins & playing mediocre to weak teams

[Lennys Tap]

Saw this stat posted on X-twit. (I never heard of the person who posted it, nor do I know if it's correct):

Before tonight, the Lions went for it on fourth-and-3 or less in plus territory 20 times in 24 opportunities, and converted on 17 of 20 (15-18 regular season, 2-2 playoffs.)

https://twitter.com/jadubin5/status/1751815428660228135?s=46&t=o_YcooE_NLDk6nCdvDo7Hw&.tsrc=1317

That's 85%.

I then looked up the success rate of Detroit K Michael Badgley from 40-49 yards in his very well-traveled career: 37 of 48.

That's 77.1%.

I obviously get the arguments from both sides, and the results say Campbell was wrong. Had the 4th-down plays succeeded - as they did 85% of the time for Detroit this season - he'd have been right. Had he gone for FGs instead and Badgley missed them, Campbell would have been wrong. Had one of the FG attempts been blocked and returned for a TD, Campbell would have been insane.

It's a results business.

How many of those times was it 4th and less than a yard? 4th and 1? 4th and 1 and a half? Etc. Those are very much different than 4th and 3. And going up against Atlanta or San Diego or whoever in a regular season game is much different than going up against SF on the road in a win or go home game.

Badgley's success rate 5 or 6 years ago from 40-49 yards is immaterial- how's he been lately? And nobody says Campbell's an idiot if a FG is blocked and returned for a TD - that's no more his fault than a fumble or a pick 6.


Bottom line - Campbell faced 4th and 3 in the scoring zone 3 times yesterday.once he kicked and got 3 points. Twice he went for it and got zero. And he lost the game by 3.

[tower912]

Also, lots of close wins & playing mediocre to weak teams

Yes.  I enjoyed the season.   A lot of fun.  But there were several things Detroit managed to paper over that came home to roost at a bad time.
1.  Their secondary. 
2.  Inability to contain scrambling QBs. 
3.  Their third quarter swoons.   
4.  Jared Goff doesn't make plays on the move.
5.  Ben Johnson, for his genius, had some odd stretches of play calling.


I see this Lion season as akin to the 22-23 MU hoops season.    A whole lot of things went right to create a very fun season with a disappointing ending.   And, the next season will be tougher.

[MU82]

How many of those times was it 4th and less than a yard? 4th and 1? 4th and 1 and a half? Etc. Those are very much different than 4th and 3. And going up against Atlanta or San Diego or whoever in a regular season game is much different than going up against SF on the road in a win or go home game.

Badgley's success rate 5 or 6 years ago from 40-49 yards is immaterial- how's he been lately? And nobody says Campbell's an idiot if a FG is blocked and returned for a TD - that's no more his fault than a fumble or a pick 6.


Bottom line - Campbell faced 4th and 3 in the scoring zone 3 times yesterday.once he kicked and got 3 points. Twice he went for it and got zero. And he lost the game by 3.

There you go again, assuming 45 and 48 yard FGs were gimmes for a vagabond kicker, and also believing that nothing else would have changed in the game had the Lions made those 2 FGs - that the Niners wouldn't have done anything different offensively or that the Lions wouldn't have done anything different defensively. But that's OK, it helps you make your case, so good on you.

I'll echo what tower and Wags said in their most recent posts. This is who the Lions are, this is how Campbell coaches. You and others thought he should have departed from what brought Detroit success all season ... and hey, in hindsight, you're right. So congrats.

[Pakuni]

Saw this stat posted on X-twit. (I never heard of the person who posted it, nor do I know if it's correct):

Before tonight, the Lions went for it on fourth-and-3 or less in plus territory 20 times in 24 opportunities, and converted on 17 of 20 (15-18 regular season, 2-2 playoffs.)

https://twitter.com/jadubin5/status/1751815428660228135?s=46&t=o_YcooE_NLDk6nCdvDo7Hw&.tsrc=1317

That's 85%.

I then looked up the success rate of Detroit K Michael Badgley from 40-49 yards in his very well-traveled career: 37 of 48.

That's 77.1%.

I obviously get the arguments from both sides, and the results say Campbell was wrong. Had the 4th-down plays succeeded - as they did 85% of the time for Detroit this season - he'd have been right. Had he gone for FGs instead and Badgley missed them, Campbell would have been wrong. Had one of the FG attempts been blocked and returned for a TD, Campbell would have been insane.

It's a results business.

This is the weakness of being a slave to analytics. It fails to take into account game situations (aka the Brandon Staley Effect).
Going for it on 4th and inches at your opponents' 40 yard line when you're down 10 points at home in the fourth quarter is not the same thing as going on 4th and 2 on your opponents' 28 when you're up 14 points in the third quarter of a road playoff game. The figures above fail to take this into account.
A coach needs to be able to make situational judgements, not just do what a computer tells him to do or, worse yet, go for it because they go for it.

For what it's worth, over the past four seasons Badgley is 28/32 from 40-49, which is 87.5%.

[Uncle Rico]

Maybe the players should make the plays?

[lawdog77]

This is the weakness of being a slave to analytics. It fails to take into account game situations (aka the Brandon Staley Effect).
Going for it on 4th and inches at your opponents' 40 yard line when you're down 10 points at home in the fourth quarter is not the same thing as going on 4th and 2 on your opponents' 28 when you're up 14 points in the third quarter of a road playoff game. The figures above fail to take this into account.
A coach needs to be able to make situational judgements, not just do what a computer tells him to do or, worse yet, go for it because they go for it.

For what it's worth, over the past four seasons Badgley is 28/32 from 40-49, which is 87.5%.

Agree 100%. People saying "Campbell did what got him here" or something similar isn't really a compliment in my opinion.Coaches need to adjust.

[Pakuni]

Maybe the players should make the plays?

#coachingnomatta?

[Uncle Rico]

#coachingnomatta?

It does.

However, the coaches didn't fumble, drop multiple passes or have the Niners complete a circus catch to set up another TD.

I'm team FG in both instances.  Make it 27-10 to make it 3 scores and put pressure on each Niner possession to produce points and make them go for it on 4th and medium.  Tie the game because they had started to move the ball on the defense.

However, it's not just those FGs that cost the Lions this game. 

[cheebs09]

I think the mindset of FGs not being able to beat the 49ers played a role. The Packers almost got away with it due to such a slow start from Purdy, but in the end, not getting TDs early on is what did them in.

If Reynolds catches that first 4th down play, then maybe we are talking about how Campbell is smart for not falling into the typical conservative play calling of NFL coaches.

[Uncle Rico]

Anyone concerned this will be the lowest rated Super Bowl ever?  Between all the people that quit watching over Kaepernick and now Taylor Swift's BF playing in the game, a little concerned a lot of people will tune out and all the money spent on commercials will go to waste which will cause massive layoffs and and consumer confidence to crater

[Pakuni]

Anyone concerned this will be the lowest rated Super Bowl ever?  Between all the people that quit watching over Kaepernick and now Taylor Swift's BF playing in the game, a little concerned a lot of people will tune out and all the money spent on commercials will go to waste which will cause massive layoffs and and consumer confidence to crater

Sadly, the game already has been decided.
#nflrigged

On Monday morning, former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy waded into the world of sports commentary by predicting that the upcoming Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers would be rigged for the former in order to set the table for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's endorsement of President Joe Biden this fall.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/vivek-ramaswamy-predicts-super-bowl-will-be-rigged-for-chiefs-to-set-the-table-for-artificially-propped-up-taylor-swifts-endorsement-of-biden/

[MU82]

However, the coaches didn't fumble, drop multiple passes or have the Niners complete a circus catch to set up another TD.

I'm team FG in both instances.  Make it 27-10 to make it 3 scores and put pressure on each Niner possession to produce points and make them go for it on 4th and medium.  Tie the game because they had started to move the ball on the defense.

However, it's not just those FGs that cost the Lions this game.

That's all reasonable, Unk.

I think the mindset of FGs not being able to beat the 49ers played a role. The Packers almost got away with it due to such a slow start from Purdy, but in the end, not getting TDs early on is what did them in.

If Reynolds catches that first 4th down play, then maybe we are talking about how Campbell is smart for not falling into the typical conservative play calling of NFL coaches.

Totally agree.

The game was interesting as it was. But to have all these decisions that had to be made, it really makes it fun to talk about. I totally get both sides of this.

[wadesworld]

Having seen the Packers settle for field goals in Playoff games only to lose heartbreakers because the defense couldn't get the ball back, I wish there was more Dan Campbell style strategy in the Packers postseasons of past.

[jesmu84]

It does.

However, the coaches didn't fumble, drop multiple passes or have the Niners complete a circus catch to set up another TD.

I'm team FG in both instances.  Make it 27-10 to make it 3 scores and put pressure on each Niner possession to produce points and make them go for it on 4th and medium.  Tie the game because they had started to move the ball on the defense.

However, it's not just those FGs that cost the Lions this game.

https://twitter.com/BenjaminSolak/status/1751805288775110954?t=0BLs3777I0nLa0aQB_cQhg&s=19

Expected points lost for DET:

Gibbs fumble: -5.5
Aiyuk reception off Vildor facemask: -3.3
Reynolds 4th down drop: -3.2
Incomplete to St. Brown on 4th and 3: -2.6

Even if we KNOW THE LIONS DIDN'T CONVERT, the failed 4th downs weren't as big of swings as the other plays.

[jesmu84]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1751795308751671490?t=bc0Is0urCtl2gQagL035RA&s=19

This game's gonna set back the Fourth Down Revolution by like 3 years.

Yup

[cheebs09]

I kind of wonder what they would have called if Aiyuk didn't make that catch. I know they picked it up, but wonder if it was incomplete or intercepted, if they would have stuck with the call.