NFL playoffs.

[The Sultan]

Well he kicked a FG on 4th and goal from the 3 (smart move). Then he (dumb move) didn't take 6 free points in the 2nd half and lost by 3.

I don't think you can call 40+ yard field goals "free."

[Lennys Tap]

Nice

? 50/50 is average but with the vig you're a loser.

[tower912]

I don't think you can call 40+ yard field goals "free."

Not the way the kickers have kicked in the postseason.

[jesmu84]

Well he kicked a FG on 4th and goal from the 3 (smart move). Then he (dumb move) didn't take 6 free points in the 2nd half and lost by 3.

Free?

[GB Warrior]

I would like to petition for all NFL games (and really all sporting events, but I can't be greedy) to conclude by 9pm CST

[tower912]

Tell me you are old without telling me you are old.


But I will make my nearly annual proposal to move the Super Bowl to Saturday.

[Lennys Tap]

Free?

Nothing is 100%. Guys can choke. But this wasn't cold, windy Buffalo. Good conditions, almost no wind. Those kicks in the NFL are VERY HIGH %. If the guy who would make around 90% hits 1of 2 you've likely got OT. Makes both and the Lions are probably in the Super Bowl. Too bad. They were a great story and, for this year anyway, America's team.

[Dish]

The first Lions drive in the second half was ultimately the turning point. Detroit's up 14, third quarter is already more than halfway over during that drive.

Reynolds had to catch that ball, and not kicking there are both troubling. But not running it on 4th & 2 is probably going to be overlooked. Montgomery had three runs on that drive, for 6, 7, and 5. For some reason on 3rd & 4 they ran with St. Brown instead of Gibbs or Montgomery, and gained two yards to set up 4th & 2.

That won't be discussed tomorrow by all the talking heads, but that playcalling definitely impacted the outcome of this game.

[MU82]

Nothing is 100%. Guys can choke. But this wasn't cold, windy Buffalo. Good conditions, almost no wind. Those kicks in the NFL are VERY HIGH %. If the guy who would make around 90% hits 1of 2 you've likely got OT. Makes both and the Lions are probably in the Super Bowl. Too bad. They were a great story and, for this year anyway, America's team.

This is a leap. The entire game might have been played differently if one or both of those kicks had been made, and even if one or both had missed.

For example, San Fran likely would have played different defense if they were up only 4 or 7 vs being up 10. Maybe the pressure would have gotten to Detroit. Or not. We'll never know.

Assuming a 48-yard FG attempt would be more likely to succeed than the kind of short 4th-down play the Lions have succeeded on all season is also a leap.

One thing is certain: Had Campbell opted for the FGs instead of going for it on 4th down, and had the FGs missed or been blocked, he would have never heard the end of, "Why go away from something that worked all season?!?!?"

[Dr. Blackheart]

This is a leap. The entire game might have been played differently if one or both of those kicks had been made, and even if one or both had missed.

For example, San Fran likely would have played different defense if they were up only 4 or 7 vs being up 10. Maybe the pressure would have gotten to Detroit. Or not. We'll never know.

Assuming a 48-yard FG attempt would be more likely to succeed than the kind of short 4th-down play the Lions have succeeded on all season is also a leap.

One thing is certain: Had Campbell opted for the FGs instead of going for it on 4th down, and had the FGs missed or been blocked, he would have never heard the end of, "Why go away from something that worked all season?!?!?"

That said, the cumulative effect of his decisions were all bad. He got every one wrong. Game theory fail.

[jesmu84]

That said, the cumulative effect of his decisions were all bad. He got every one wrong. Game theory fail.

The decision that likely most impacted win % was the timeout after the run play down 10. Way more than any of the 4th downs

[MU82]

That said, the cumulative effect of his decisions were all bad. He got every one wrong. Game theory fail.

Yes, if one takes advantage of hindsight to focus on results, it certainly was a failure.

If Reynolds catches the 4th-down pass that hits him right in the hands - a catch NFL receivers have to make - Detroit probably wins the game. If he catches the incredibly easy 3rd-down pass that went right through his hands and off his body - a catch NFL receivers make 99.7% of the time - Detroit quite possibly wins the game.

But if folks want to put the blame on Campbell for making the exact same kind of decisions he has made all season - decisions that got the Lions to the NFC Championship Game - that's certainly their right. The decisions didn't work this time, and the Lions lost.

[Lennys Tap]

The first Lions drive in the second half was ultimately the turning point. Detroit's up 14, third quarter is already more than halfway over during that drive.

And a FG gives them a 3 score lead with 22 minutes to play. Sure, a TD is better, but it's still only a 3 score lead. In that situation you have to take the points.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yes, if one takes advantage of hindsight to focus on results, it certainly was a failure.

If Reynolds catches the 4th-down pass that hits him right in the hands - a catch NFL receivers have to make - Detroit probably wins the game. If he catches the incredibly easy 3rd-down pass that went right through his hands and off his body - a catch NFL receivers make 99.7% of the time - Detroit quite possibly wins the game.

But if folks want to put the blame on Campbell for making the exact same kind of decisions he has made all season - decisions that got the Lions to the NFC Championship Game - that's certainly their right. The decisions didn't work this time, and the Lions lost.

Again, it wasn't just one play or drop. It's lack of considering the element of time and the lead. Go for it on one occasion, kick the FG on the other. Or better yet, punt the ball on the first possession which may have been the best odds with that lead. The goal line run was idiotic use of time. Again, gut versus game theory but the ego won this time. The buck stops with the coach.

And btw, the biggest drop was Kindle Vildor's.

[MU82]

Again, it wasn't just one play or drop. It's lack of considering the element of time and the lead. Go for it on one occasion, kick the FG on the other. Or better yet, punt the ball on the first possession which may have been the best odds with that lead. The goal line run was idiotic use of time. Again, gut versus game theory but the ego won this time. The buck stops with the coach.

And btw, the biggest drop was Kindle Vildor's.

Reasonable post, even though we disagree on some of the particulars. Have a good one.

[Dish]

One other thing that's interesting for the criticism Campbell is receiving. The one time tonight he went conservative tonight, possibly may have backfired on him.

End of the first half, 4th & goal from the SF three, and the Lions kick the FG there. I don't necessarily blame Campbell for doing that, but going up 21 instead of 17 is significant.

[#UnleashSean]

Tell me you are old without telling me you are old.


But I will make my nearly annual proposal to move the Super Bowl to Saturday.

I don't understand why this isn't a thing.

[Pakuni]

But if folks want to put the blame on Campbell for making the exact same kind of decisions he has made all season - decisions that got the Lions to the NFC Championship Game - that's certainly their right. The decisions didn't work this time, and the Lions lost.

Is there any way of knowing this to be true, i.e. that the Lions got to the NFC Championship game because they were aggressive on 4th down?

[MU82]

One other thing that's interesting for the criticism Campbell is receiving. The one time tonight he went conservative tonight, possibly may have backfired on him.

End of the first half, 4th & goal from the SF three, and the Lions kick the FG there. I don't necessarily blame Campbell for doing that, but going up 21 instead of 17 is significant.

It was a chip-shot FG and it was 3 full yards. I wouldn't have blamed him for going for it, but it's a lot easier decision to kick the chip shot when you're already up two scores than to assume your kicker is gonna make a 48-yarder later. IMHO, anyway (and obviously in Campbell's honest opinion, too).

I seriously agreed with all 3 decisions in real time, Dish. I guess that makes me as bad an NFL coach as Campbell!

Is there any way of knowing this to be true, i.e. that the Lions got to the NFC Championship game because they were aggressive on 4th down?

I suppose not, but it did become the coach's credo and part of the team's identity. It's a "dance with the one who brung ya" thing. Is that better?

[Pakuni]

I suppose not, but it did become the coach's credo and part of the team's identity. It's a "dance with the one who brung ya" thing. Is that better?

No,, that's actually much worse. If the argument is "It was the right call to go for it for it because that's what they do" then that would be a foolish.
A coach has to consider the circumstances - the score, time on the clock, how his team is playing, how the other team is playing, etc. - when making those calls and adjust accordingly. And all the circumstances tonight seemed to point toward taking the points.
I wouldn't go as far as to say it cost the Lions the game - there were plenty of other key plays that just as easily could have turned the game the other way - but they weren't great decisions.

FWIW, my question wasn't intended as rhetorical or snarky. I just wondered if there was any evidence the Lions won more because of their fourth down aggressiveness or it that's more correlation than causation.

[MU82]

I have no idea if such stats exist, Pak.

Otherwise, we'll agree to disagree on the decisions. Have a good night.

[JustinLewisFanClubPres]

And a FG gives them a 3 score lead with 22 minutes to play. Sure, a TD is better, but it's still only a 3 score lead. In that situation you have to take the points.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. You are playing against the clock as much as anything (especially in a playoff game). 49ers opening drive in the second half netted 3 points and the Lions had the opportunity to neutralize that with their own field goal and still have a 3 score lead. That keeps a lot of pressure on the 49ers. That was a terrible decision and the game unraveled from there. It was doubly surprising since Campbell was smart to take the 3 points at the end of the half.

[Uncle Rico]

Nice

Thanks.  Luckily, as a Christian, I don't gamble and just pick scores for fun. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

I don't understand why this isn't a thing.

Sponsor hype extended, Sunday ratings devotion.

[The Sultan]

People are way more likely to be busy with other things on a Saturday than they would be late afternoon on Sunday.