2024 Mock Drafts

[brewcity77]

Does anyone have stats showing the number of borderline draft picks who stay at school versus those who stay in the draft, in terms of percentage who make the NBA?

Going strictly by anecdotal evidence, Dominic James was perceived as a possible draft pick after his freshman year, but stayed and didn't get drafted, so staying is a mistake and hurts your draft stock. Vander Blue was perceived as unlikely be be drafted, and wasn't drafted after leaving early, so leaving early is a mistake and hurts your draft stock.

Ultimately, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[MuggsyB]

Going strictly by anecdotal evidence, Dominic James was perceived as a possible draft pick after his freshman year, but stayed and didn't get drafted, so staying is a mistake and hurts your draft stock. Vander Blue was perceived as unlikely be be drafted, and wasn't drafted after leaving early, so leaving early is a mistake and hurts your draft stock.

Ultimately, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't.

I think each situation is entirely different.

[PGsHeroes32]

I doubt it's going to happen, but I will be exceedingly angry if Tyko does not go 15-30 tonight and has to wait until tomorrow to be picked.

If it happens, go cow tipping. Great anger release

[brewcity77]

I think each situation is entirely different.

I disagree. Every situation is the same and can be boiled down to those two anecdotal incidents. No matter what you do, you're wrong.

[The Sultan]

I actually think Oso being forced to take over as the #1 guy at MU could have been helpful in his development.

How?

[StillAWarrior]

How?

Everyone knows that being the #1 guy causes your arms to grow.

[wadesworld]

1) money in the table. I honestly don't know (as I mentioned opportune cost) but highly doubt a late second round pick is making what he could have in NIL returning.

2) general fan environment, there isn't a g league team that's competing with our atmosphere and amenities

3) long distance relationship. I'm team Liza Karlen and Oso having a super baby that brings Marquette to glory some day.

But essentially if pitch ask me "for minimal money and to play in front of nobody, you get to be away from the girl you dated for three years of college, and be coached by subpar coaches. But you may get called up to the NBA!" I'd personally pass but that's just me.

His girlfriend no longer attends Marquette anyway.

[brewcity77]

His girlfriend no longer attends Marquette anyway.

He should've come back to school, but transferred to Notre Dame. That would make the critics happy, I'm sure.

[Pakuni]

Never mentioned anything about development? I agree for the most part that being last man on an NBA bench is better for development. I'm not sold on that being true in the GLeague as there's at least one subpar coach coaching an MU guy (again) in that league.

Which is why I didn't directly respond to your post.
But I could easily find a dozen and more posts here over the years about how players should stay in college to develop.
And development is a lot more than coaching.

[Pakuni]

1) money in the table. I honestly don't know (as I mentioned opportune cost) but highly doubt a late second round pick is making what he could have in NIL returning.

2) general fan environment, there isn't a g league team that's competing with our atmosphere and amenities

3) long distance relationship. I'm team Liza Karlen and Oso having a super baby that brings Marquette to glory some day.

But essentially if pitch ask me "for minimal money and to play in front of nobody, you get to be away from the girl you dated for three years of college, and be coached by subpar coaches. But you may get called up to the NBA!" I'd personally pass but that's just me.

Of the 26 second-round picks that signed a contract last year (i.e. didn't stay overseas), 16 of them got guaranteed money. Twelve of those 16 got multiple years guaranteed.
I'd be very surprised if a Marquette NIL deal matches one, much less 2+, years of NBA salary.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Of the 26 second-round picks that signed a contract last year (i.e. didn't stay overseas), 16 of them got guaranteed money. Twelve of those 16 got multiple years guaranteed.
I'd be very surprised if a Marquette NIL deal matches one, much less 2+, years of NBA salary.

NIL can't compete with real NBA salaries but blows the G-League salaries out of the water.

[jficke13]

NIL can't compete with real NBA salaries but blows the G-League salaries out of the water.

Since I'm not a big NBA contract knower, what happens when a player is drafted but spends time down in the G-League? Does he get paid NBA money, or G-League money? For example, Omax played like 24 games in the G-League, was he paid his NBA salary for that time?

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Since I'm not a big NBA contract knower, what happens when a player is drafted but spends time down in the G-League? Does he get paid NBA money, or G-League money? For example, Omax played like 24 games in the G-League, was he paid his NBA salary for that time?

As a first round pick, O-Max is paid his NBA salary no matter what.

It's different for 2 way contracts.  They get paid a lower rate for G-League and a prorated amount of the NBA league minimum when they are "called up" to the NBA roster.

If they surpass a certain amount of games, they have to either be converted to an NBA contract or released.  (I forget the exact number but the limit is about 40 or so games.)

[jficke13]

As a first round pick, O-Max is paid his NBA salary no matter what.

It's different for 2 way contracts.  They get paid a lower rate for G-League and a prorated amount of the NBA league minimum when they are "called up" to the NBA roster.

If they surpass a certain amount of games, they have to either be converted to an NBA contract or released.  (I forget the exact number but the limit is about 40 or so games.)

Is a guy who's picked, say 45th, and spends the majority of the season in the G-league considred on a 2-way contract?

[Goose]

I think Oso made the right decision and hope he is drafted earlier than some are expecting. That said, I think Oso might have had a very, very nice NIL deal if he stayed at MU this year.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Is a guy who's picked, say 45th, and spends the majority of the season in the G-league considred on a 2-way contract?

It depends on the contract.  But it's not uncommon for 2nd round picks to get 2 way contracts, especially someone picked 45th or later.

Usually the top 40 get an NBA contract with some guaranteed money. 

[Pakuni]

NIL can't compete with real NBA salaries but blows the G-League salaries out of the water.

If you're playing on a G-League contract or two-way deal and spend most of your season in the G-League, sure.
But if you're on a guaranteed NBA deal, you get paid either way.

[Pakuni]

Is a guy who's picked, say 45th, and spends the majority of the season in the G-league considred on a 2-way contract?

There are contracts specifically designated as two-way deals. But, unless I'm mistaken (which never happens), if you sign a guaranteed NBA deal, you get paid either way.

[The Sultan]

And Oso wasn't going to improve his draft stock staying in school. May as well get started on his pro career, even if it comes with a one time dip in earnings compared to what he would get with NIL. It just seemed like he was ready to move on regardless.

[Galway Eagle]

His girlfriend no longer attends Marquette anyway.

Well yeah her BF and coach left her. I'd leave too... not to ND but somewhere.

Of the 26 second-round picks that signed a contract last year (i.e. didn't stay overseas), 16 of them got guaranteed money. Twelve of those 16 got multiple years guaranteed.
I'd be very surprised if a Marquette NIL deal matches one, much less 2+, years of NBA salary.

Well yeah of course 1 yr doesn't match 2 years lol. The question would be would 1 yr NIL > yr 1 in salary then would the theoretical year 1 rookie salary + NIL > 2 years rookie salary.

Here are theoretical numbers: if he makes 300k over the next two years from GLeague, but yr one is 100k. because rookie salary, If he can get >100k in NIL then he beats that in yr 1, so staying is more financially prudent in the near term. Then the next comp would be could he still hit that same 100k rookie salary after next year (I'd guess he could), then could he hit >200k this year with NIL so ultimately after 2 years he's still making the same or more. if he could then it'd be more financially prudent to have stayed over 2 years. Given what numbers were coming out last year I'd guess he would've been able to hit that >200 mark.

[cheebs09]

I think Oso getting drafted is going to depend on a team's confidence in improving his shot. Based on his measurements, he won't be a big rim protector. Maybe a team sees a potential Brook Lopez improvement in shooting.

One thing is I don't think anyone questions that Oso has the work ethic to improve.

[jficke13]

There are contracts specifically designated as two-way deals. But, unless I'm mistaken (which never happens), if you sign a guaranteed NBA deal, you get paid either way.

Affirmative. Thanks.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

There are contracts specifically designated as two-way deals. But, unless I'm mistaken (which never happens), if you sign a guaranteed NBA deal, you get paid either way.

Correct. It depends on the contract structure, which can vary quite a bit.

Some examples from last year:

40th pick
Maxwell Lewis
4 year, $7.6 million ($3.1 million guaranteed)

41st pick
Amari Bailey
1 year, just shy of $560k

45th pick
GG Jackson
2-way contract (performed well and earned a new contract: 4 yr, $8.5 million with 3 yrs guaranteed)

[Jay Bee]

Any improvement Oso sees with one additional year at Marquette would be marginal at best. He's not suddenly going to start dropping threes.

That's not what I was told one year ago!

[MU82]

How?

Not sure if you're just trying to troll Muggsy a little, but ...

At Marquette, he'd be playing major minutes for an NCAA tournament team whose coach trusted Oso so much that he was largely building both the offense and defense around Oso.

I am close to 100% certain that staying at Marquette for his junior year was beneficial to Oso's development. And I'm pretty sure it helped his further development last season, but maybe being in the G-League would have helped him in other ways. We'll never know.

I'm also certain that going pro now was the "right" decision for him, no matter where (or if) he's drafted. He declared early on that he was ready for the next challenge, he'd be leaving Marquette with 2 degrees, and he almost certainly wouldn't have helped his draft stock by staying. There really was no reason to return to MU except to make some Scoopers happy.