2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

[dgies9156]

We've gotten horrible matchups the past 2 years and immediately recognized both UNC and MSU as tough draws. I hope we don't get tough draws, but I am going into this Selection Sunday with a 'whatever' attitude. Whoever we get, we gotta beat. No excuses. It is go time!

Thank you!

To be the best, you have to beat the best. No excuses.

This team. This tournament. Something I've been waiting for a long, long time. After last year's aborted launch, it's now time to show what We Are Marquette really means!

Onward and upward guys!

[rocket surgeon]

I think Iowa state takes the last #1 seed from North Carolina-they've earned it.  the big 12 is the toughest conference top to bottom.  those games all season long including the conference tourney were wars.


my sleeper sweet 16-GCU 

[The Sultan]

I think Iowa state takes the last #1 seed from North Carolina-they've earned it.  the big 12 is the toughest conference top to bottom.  those games all season long including the conference tourney were wars.


my sleeper sweet 16-GCU 

102 of the 102 brackets on Bracket Matrix don't have ISU as a 1 seed.  It would be very surprising if that happens.

[HowardsWorld]

ISU deserves the 1 seed over North Carolina. They absolutely skull F*cked both Baylor and Houston.

[The Sultan]

Again, that's not how it works. Conference championship games are just another game in a body of work that starts in November.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Athletic sticking with UNC as last #1 seed. Thinks the committee does not want to be seen rewarding such a poor non conference schedule. Also has Saint John's as last team in.

[DoctorV]

102 of the 102 brackets on Bracket Matrix don't have ISU as a 1 seed.  It would be very surprising if that happens.

Graham Doeren, a very respected bracketologist, had a very interesting bracket with Iowa St as the final 1 seed out west with Marquette as the 2, Illinois and Kentucky the 3/4.

He's since said he's still considering.

Most have UNC as the final 1.

That said, if the committee chair did indeed mean that there were 3 teams in play for the final 1 seed and that their resume was still incomplete- and that means UNC, MU, and Iowa State- if follows logic that with UNCs bad loss AND Iowa States massive blowout win that they might have slid up to the 1 line.

I honestly think Marquette was closer to a 1 than we ever expected.
The computer numbers for Marquette and Iowa state are elite- the most elite after the 3 locks on the one line.

That said, UNCs are also very good, but in a much weaker conference.
Marquette is now out because of no titles but Iowa state has one, with an elite conference and a brutal OOC schedule.
UNC has one too, with good metrics and a weaker conference.

Would be odd to get shipped out west, but I would kinda love being the 2 in Iowa States bracket, and having Illinois and UK as the 3/4 doesn't scare me.
Sign me up.

[Elonsmusk]

102 of the 102 brackets on Bracket Matrix don't have ISU as a 1 seed.  It would be very surprising if that happens.

And that right there is proof positive of herd mentality.  ISU 100% deserves a 1 seed over Carolina.  ACC is down big time this year.  Carolina's best wins are Tennessee at home, and 3 wins over Duke - who also plays in the watered down ACC.  Carolina has losses to Ken Pom's 87th ranked Syracuse and 128th ranked Georgia Tech.

Iowa State?  Let's see.  Overall Number 5 in Ken Pom, North Carolina 8.  ISU's worst loss?  K State, ranked 69 in Ken Pom.   Two wins over another lock 1 seed, and Number 2 overall Ken Pom team, Houston.  Further they played in a substantially more difficult conference.

If UNC gets the last 1, then it flies in the face of the committee and Brew City stating that conference tournaments matter.

[The Sultan]

They do matter. No doubt. They just don't matter any more than any other game. And maybe ISU's performance will be enough to get them to the final one seed, but it would be fairly unprecedented from following Bracket Matrix over the years.

That being said, some of the brackets added this morning do have ISU as a #1. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Uncle Rico]

And that right there is proof positive of herd mentality.  ISU 100% deserves a 1 seed over Carolina.  ACC is down big time this year.  Carolina's best wins are Tennessee at home, and 3 wins over Duke - who also plays in the watered down ACC.  Carolina has losses to Ken Pom's 87th ranked Syracuse and 128th ranked Georgia Tech.

Iowa State?  Let's see.  Overall Number 5 in Ken Pom, North Carolina 8.  ISU's worst loss?  K State, ranked 69 in Ken Pom.   Two wins over another lock 1 seed, and Number 2 overall Ken Pom team, Houston.  Further they played in a substantially more difficult conference.

If UNC gets the last 1, then it flies in the face of the committee and Brew City stating that conference tournaments matter.

I think the Clones deserve the 1-seed over UNC but their non-con schedule is the strongest argument against them

[MuggsyB]

Iowa St. based on the eye test deserves a #1 seed.  But that's not how it works. 

[The Sultan]

Back in the day, when recent results were weighted higher, I would think ISU would be a shoo-in for a #1. I just don't think that's the case now.

[WhiteTrash]

Iowa St. based on the eye test deserves a #1 seed.  But that's not how it works.

I'm not sure I believe him, but the head of the selection committee said they do use the eye test and watch a lot of games.

[CountryRoads]

It would suck to only get 3 BE teams in. Hope the committee overlooks some of the metrics given how historically bad DePaul was and how awful Georgetown was. Those two teams absolutely screwed the conference with how pitiful they were. Their embarrassing programs are likely the difference between getting 3 additional teams in.

[Scoop Snoop]

It would suck to only get 3 BE teams in. Hope the committee overlooks some of the metrics given how historically bad DePaul was and how awful Georgetown was. Those two teams absolutely screwed the conference with how pitiful they were. Their embarrassing programs are likely the difference between getting 3 additional teams in.

Playing DePaul has been worse than having another cupcake on the schedule 2 times, and GT has not been much better. Let's hope their coaches can get them up to a "not too bad" level. I know all conferences have some perennially weak teams, but those two are beyond "weak".

[DoctorV]

Yes.
Seton Halls metrics aren't good, others have much better computer numbers.

However, they finished 4th in the BE and have 5 Q1s. 9-11 Q1&2 not great.
Their high end wins are their best asset.
Although at home, they beat BOTH UConn and Marquette, a 1&2 seed.

So, it's obvious they can play and beat elite teams, the types they would face, and the committee has said in the past that matters.
Providence just beat Creighton- 3 seed, the second time this season, and beat MU- and StJ almost took out UConn.

St Johns has the least Q1s and least impressive wins of the 3, yet the best computer numbers.

So, to be completely honest they all likely deserve a bid in a normal year but this one is a bit more challenging.

The computer versus quality wins thing is really coming to a head this year too.
People argued for a while that Indiana state deserved a bid- NET at 29 but literally no good wins.
That team belongs nowhere near this field imo.
You can't justify leaving teams with 5 and 6 Q1 wins out to include someone line Indiana st

[MU82]

My prediction

#2 seed in the Midwest in Indy v. #15 WKU. #7 Washington State v. #10 Oklahoma for the S16.

Melikey!

[MU82]

I'm not sure I believe him, but the head of the selection committee said they do use the eye test and watch a lot of games.

Yep. Also, last year's committee chair said that conference tournament results can and do factor in.

As for bracketmatrix ... it takes a couple days to update, so 102 of 102 doesn't reflect Iowa State's last game (maybe even last 2 games) and UNC's last game in dozens and dozens of brackets.

That said, for years, regardless of committee makeup, they have said repeatedly that out-of-conference strength of schedule matters. They have consistently rewarded teams that play tough OOC skeds and have consistently punished teams that play soft OOC sked's. Iowa State's OOC schedule ranks 312th - 312th! - in the country. Compare that to UNC (26th), Tennessee (16th) and Arizona (13th), and it's hard to claim the OOC matters and then reward the team at #312.

It's gonna be interesting to see where everybody's placed, and interesting to hear what the chair has to say afterward.

[DoctorV]

Yea trash scheduling by TJO- likely saw Houston coming over and realized the conference season would be brutal.

He should change that up in the future.

That said, their conference strength of schedule >>> UNCs and they went 13-5 and UNC 17-3.
Then they beat monstrous Houston in a way no one could EVER imagine while UNC lost to 9-11 in the ACC NCSt.

Could go either way.

[GoldenEagles03]

Thank you!

To be the best, you have to beat the best. No excuses.

This team. This tournament. Something I've been waiting for a long, long time. After last year's aborted launch, it's now time to show what We Are Marquette really means!

Onward and upward guys!

💪

[MU82]

There's no way that Illinois could steal Indy from us by beating the Weasels today, is there?

[The Sultan]

If they move up to a number two seed perhaps. Otherwise I expect them in Omaha or Pittsburgh.

[Uncle Rico]

There's no way that Illinois could steal Indy from us by beating the Weasels today, is there?

No.  They'd jump at least 2-seed lines.  That isn't happening

[MuggsyB]

There's no way that Illinois could steal Indy from us by beating the Weasels today, is there?

Nope. 

[wisblue]

One thing I would say about Iowa State is to look at how you thought about them last Monday after they lost to Kansas State to finish 2 games behind Houston in the conference standings.

Did you see them then as a candidate for a 1 seed? Where would they have been on your seed list?

The few bracketologists that I follow and that post seed lists, not just seed lines, had Marquette, Creighton, Iowa State, and Baylor at 7-10 on their seed lists in some order.

Even if they were listed at number 7, do the results of 2 or 3 games outweigh the results of the 30 or so other games enough to vault ISU over 3 other teams?

You could make a case for Iowa State ahead of any or all of UNC, Tennessee, and Arizona, but there are reasons those teams were considered ahead of ISU before this week. Most of those reasons are still there.

In addition to schedule strength, the Committee has said it looks to see how teams have performed on the road. ISU is 5-5 on the road, compared to 8-2 for UNC, 8-3 for Tennessee, and 7-4 for Arizona.

My prediction for 1-10 on the Committee's Seed List is:

1. UConn
2. Purdue
3. Houston
4. UNC
5. Tennessee
6. Iowa State
7. Arizona
8. Marquette
9. Baylor
10. Creighton