The End of Cable TV?

[Heisenberg]

How do networks make money?  If you answer advertising, you need to update your understanding.

The majority of their revenues are cable fees. Your $100 or so bill includes the payment to every cable station in your bundle. They supplement it with advertising, but advertising alone is not enough to make them viable.

At the top of the heap is ESPN and Disney stations (including ABC). ESPN gets about $9/month per subscriber. They are considered the most important cable station.

This is why Disney has not offered it as a separate streaming service. Ditto ABC. (they offer ESPN+ but that is tons of stuff NOT offered on the networks of ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, etc).

Now that Disney is really struggling, it is desperate enough to abandon its defense of the cable model and go it alone by offering its content in streaming only.

May 19, 2023
Disney is reportedly laying the groundwork for its standalone ESPN streaming service
Unlike ESPN+, this service would include access to TV networks.
https://www.engadget.com/disney-is-reportedly-laying-the-groundwork-for-its-standalone-espn-streaming-service-172721356.html

If Disney does this, expect dozens of stories like this ....

May 9, 2023
MTV News to shut down as Paramount Media Networks slashes US workforce
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/media/mtv-news/index.html
A major Paramount division announced Tuesday it will shutter MTV News and slash its US workforce by 25%, bringing to an end the iconic music video network's news division that once covered a range of issues from pop culture to politics and became a household name for Generation X and Millennial adolescents.

And two days later, we got this.

May 11, 2023
Did Tucker Carlson Just Kill Cable News?
https://www.dailysignal.com/2023/05/11/tucker-carlson-kill-cable-news/
Cable television has long been on the decline, but Carlson's announcement may be the beginning of the end for cable news as viewers ditch expensive cable packages for streaming services and social media-hosted content.

On today's edition of the "Problematic Women" podcast, we discuss what Carlson's announcement means for cable news and whether Carlson's older fan base will follow him to Twitter.

Some here have argued that the older crowd will not follow him on Twitter. Maybe so. But if they do, Cable news is going to the way of MTV News. Everyone in the industry will be holding their breath.

[tower912]

Let Chicos know.

[withoutbias]

Haven't you started this topic a couple times already?  Maybe just starting this every couple years?  You'll be right eventually!

[Heisenberg]

New news on this front. See the date of the links in my post.

Also, you should mute me

[Jockey]

ESPN was always going to offer standalone service eventually. The holdups were their contracts with the cable companies.

[MU82]

From what I've read today, Disney has absolutely no date in mind to pull the plug on cable and go exclusively with streaming for ESPN. Cable/satellite is still a cash cow for the network, and about half of U.S. households still get their TV that way.

The switch will happen eventually, but it looks like it will be many, many years away -- Disney (and other major corporations with a piece of the action) will need to be convinced that will be the best way to make the most money.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Oh great. Another "Heisy-predicts-the-future" thread that will probably be laughably wrong.

[Jockey]

From what I've read today, Disney has absolutely no date in mind to pull the plug on cable and go exclusively with streaming for ESPN. Cable/satellite is still a cash cow for the network, and about half of U.S. households still get their TV that way.

The switch will happen eventually, but it looks like it will be many, many years away -- Disney (and other major corporations with a piece of the action) will need to be convinced that will be the best way to make the most money.

I have never read that Disney wants to pull the plug on cable. I think they would prefer to have cable and standalone. I think cable is demise-ing about as much as cities are.

Disney and ESPN have begun laying the groundwork to begin selling the premium sports network as a standalone, direct-to-consumer option. ESPN would continue to offer its channel through cable providers, but they have been negotiating contacts with carriers to allow for the streaming spin-off. Right now, those contracts prevent ESPN from a full streaming service. This could really help decrease cable's share as consumers are tired of paying for TV bundles. But an awful lot of people would still like to get cable w/out ESPN and its almost $10 a month cost. For people where sports is the main attraction, though, this would be game over, as the price of ESPN as a standalone service (or bundles with Disney # HULU) would be way cheaper than cable.

[NCMUFan]

As long as I can watch MUMBB from home by some method I will be happy.

[MU82]

I have never read that Disney wants to pull the plug on cable. I think they would prefer to have cable and standalone. I think cable is demise-ing about as much as cities are.

Disney and ESPN have begun laying the groundwork to begin selling the premium sports network as a standalone, direct-to-consumer option. ESPN would continue to offer its channel through cable providers, but they have been negotiating contacts with carriers to allow for the streaming spin-off. Right now, those contracts prevent ESPN from a full streaming service. This could really help decrease cable's share as consumers are tired of paying for TV bundles. But an awful lot of people would still like to get cable w/out ESPN and its almost $10 a month cost. For people where sports is the main attraction, though, this would be game over, as the price of ESPN as a standalone service (or bundles with Disney # HULU) would be way cheaper than cable.

Good post.

[MUEng92]

As long as I can watch MUMBB from home by some method I will be happy.

Over the last couple months, I've finally admitted to myself that the main thing keeping me paying a ridiculous amount of money for cable is being able to watch every MU basketball game.  What "legal" non-cable ways do people use to watch MU games?

[rocky_warrior]

Over the last couple months, I've finally admitted to myself that the main thing keeping me paying a ridiculous amount of money for cable is being able to watch every MU basketball game.  What "legal" non-cable ways do people use to watch MU games?

YouTube TV (or any other live TV streaming service).  No contract, drop in April, start back up again in Nov.  Of course, their pricing is now pretty much like cable, but since I don't pay for it 6 months of the year, it is a better value (for me).

I guess you also need a smart TV, or streaming stick.  But if you don't already, you should really get one of those

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

YouTube TV (or any other live TV streaming service).  No contract, drop in April, start back up again in Nov.  Of course, their pricing is now pretty much like cable, but since I don't pay for it 6 months of the year, it is a better value (for me).

I guess you also need a smart TV, or streaming stick.  But if you don't already, you should really get one of those

This is the way

[Heisenberg]

As long as I can watch MUMBB from home by some method I will be happy.

How much a month are you willing to pay for MUMBB?

[panda]

How much a month are you willing to pay for MUMBB?

*mubb

[Uncle Rico]

*mubb

*mubb - *muwbb = broads where they belong

[panda]

*mubb - *muwbb = broads where they belong

Only racists would call a woman a broad

[Uncle Rico]

Only racists would call a woman a broad

I hate white people

[panda]

I hate white people

Classic lib

[Uncle Rico]

Classic lib

Pure commie

[Porky's Butthole]

SVOD revenue is on pace to equal pay TV by 2027.    It's not possible for ESPN to survive in its current form with a DTC model.   The numbers don't add up.  They'd have to charge each subscriber at least $50 a month to even think about the possibility of profitability, and there aren't enough advertising $$ out there to make up the difference.  Even in a great year for advertising, it's at most, 40% of most cable network's revenue.  The majority of the $$ comes from subscriber fees.  Typically it's about a 65/35 ratio.

The bundle was one of the greatest business models ever created in the history of business.  It was great while it lasted, but it's dying a slow death and by 2030 at the latest it will be history. 

Some speculate that the bundle will live on in streaming much like You Tube TV.   Depending on the degree of subscriber fatigue, that's a possibility, but Porky doesn't think it's all that likely.   The domino effect that this will have on sports rights will be significant.   

Even with tech players like Apple and Amazon vying for rights, they can't make any money on them either.   What they can do (at least for now) is absorb the losses much more easily than traditional media companies can, since TV for the AMZ's and Apple's of the world is not their primary business......just a hobby subsidized by their other much more lucrative businesses.

Porky works in the cable TV business and has provided some trade articles about this for scoopers that are interested.

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/385778/svod-revenue-will-nearly-match-pay-tv-by-2027-but.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline&utm_campaign=130418&hashid=Oj7wpu1qSguBYxQSF9-O4w

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/385566/wbds-zaslav-rival-streamers-must-bundle-or-be-tr.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline&utm_campaign=130418&hashid=Oj7wpu1qSguBYxQSF9-O4w

[Jockey]

The bundle will be diminished, but it will continue for a long time yet.

I also dispute your numbers. While $$$ will go down significantly in the 5-10 years on bundles, it will be made up on the standalone streaming for the most part.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The bundle will be diminished, but it will continue for a long time yet.

I also dispute your numbers. While $$$ will go down significantly in the 5-10 years on bundles, it will be made up on the standalone streaming for the most part.

Retired underwear guy tells guy in the cable TV industry that he's wrong based on the undies guy's feelings.

[Jockey]

Retired underwear guy tells guy in the cable TV industry that he's wrong based on the undies guy's feelings.

Well, when ESPN redoes all their expiring contracts in the next few years, we'll see who is right.

[dgies9156]

Ditched cable in November and have mixed reviews.

Positive: No wiring for TVs. As long as I have an outlet, I have a fully functioning TV. No rental cable boxes. High-speed internet and streaming (YouTubeTV), about 2/3rds of my Comcast bill. Oh, and I'll get the entire NFL package this fall. Also get the Palm Beach television stations. Still get almost every Marquette game (most important of all!). Also get the Milwaukee and Chicago TV station news, which I didn't get before.

Negatives: No regional sports channels. Channels are not numbered for easy access. No MeTV. Fear this rate I pay now is the bottom of a very large valley soon to climb a mountain. By the time I add all the apps I want, I may end up paying more than I did for cable. Sticking to what I need for now.

There is a convenience factor to cable that streaming can't match. My suspicion is that Comact will drop prices at some point and stream their service. In effect, cable-free cable. I would expect this would take the local regulatory requirement out of my television (YEAHHHH!) but will alow me to build the television package I want for what I would pay for cable -- or less!