The Future of Cities

[Not A Serious Person]

From the Wall Street Journal:

Homicides Are Falling in Major American Cities

https://www.wsj.com/articles/homicides-are-falling-in-major-american-cities-7b0bd906?mod=djemwhatsnews

Homicides in some of America’s largest cities are falling after soaring during the first two years of the pandemic.

So far this year, killings are down 12% overall in nine of the 10 most populous cities compared with the same time frame last year, according to local government data.

Homicides are down in six of those cities, including 27% in Los Angeles, 22% in Houston, and 16% in Philadelphia. In Texas, the cities of Dallas, San Antonio and Austin reported slight upticks. San Diego didn’t provide data.

The 2023 data available from the cities had different end dates, ranging from April to this week.

Local officials and criminologists say conditions that drove the violence up in 2020 and 2021, such as rise in domestic disputes and a pause in gang-violence prevention programs during the pandemic, as well as a pullback in police enforcement after racial-justice protests over the murder of George Floyd, are receding.

Last year, the number of killings dropped 5% in 70 of the largest U.S. cities from 2021, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association, which represents police chiefs from large cities.

“Obviously, things got so bad, we’re slowly chipping away at it,” said Danielle Outlaw, Philadelphia’s police commissioner.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation isn’t expected to release national crime figures for 2022 until later this year. Murders rose 4% in 2021 after spiking by nearly 30% in 2020, according to the agency’s most recent data.

Some criminologists argue that the reduction in violence is tied most closely to the receding effects of the pandemic.

John Roman, a senior fellow in the Economics, Justice and Society Group at NORC at the University of Chicago, said Americans were disconnected from schools, churches, mentors and counseling, which resulted in more deadly conflicts. He said that any impacts on policing from the protests weren’t widespread.

Crime is up 40% to 50% since the Pandemic. Then guess what? This winter got colder than last winter, so crime dipped a few percent in 1H 2023.  Now that it is getting warmer, crime is getting worse. Crime is still up 30% since the Pandemic.

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The premise of this thread is the upper Midwest's population is declining. What does this mean for MU? How does MU keep applications flowing for future freshman classes and continue to attract students to meet its enrollment goals?

One way is for MU to transcend the plight of the upper Midwest and become a truly national school, like Wash U in St. Louis (St. Louis might be worse than Detriot right now). Interestingly, no one has yet to answer this question. Is this because no one thinks MU can become a national university that can attract from across the country (like ND, NW, or Wash U)? Therefore it is stuck with the same problems as Depaul.

---

The population MU pulls from is shrinking. The second post in this thread quotes the mayor of Milwaukee that notes the future of the City rest on its arresting its downward spiral of population loss.

A few-month dip in crime when it is 10 degrees outside is not fixing this.

And neither is Brandon Johnson.

May 3, 2023
Chicago metropolitan area population decline being addressed through revitalization projects
This Chicago metropolitan area, which includes Naperville and Elgin, saw nearly 300,000 people leave in just the last five years.

https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/

The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.

"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.

The MacArthur Foundation and UIC have studied this and found ...

June 2022
MacArthur Foundation/UIC data report analyzing Chicago Metro population trends
https://uofi.app.box.com/s/rgf5h8oc8bnjq9ua2463oolvdj23qyun/file/970584591836

Excerpts from its conclusion

If individuals vote with their feet, Chicago is losing. As we noted at the beginning of this report, Chicago is the slowest growing major city in the U.S. Thousands of Chicago residents have left the city to seek better opportunities elsewhere. In this report, we’ve documented these trends, starting from the period of massive population growth in 1920 to its dramatic decline a century later.


---

[Not A Serious Person]

Speaking of the Future of Cities ...

June 12, 2023
Hotel Owners Start to Write Off San Francisco as Business Nosedives
City’s lodging business has been squeezed by crime and other quality-of-life issues

https://www.wsj.com/articles/hotel-owners-start-to-write-off-san-francisco-as-business-nosedives-e84c64ef

San Francisco’s once thriving hotel market is suffering its worst stretch in at least 15 years, pummeled by the same forces that have emptied out the city’s office towers and closed many retail stores.

Hotel owners in New York and Los Angeles are filling nearly as many rooms this year as they did in 2019, according to hotel-data firm STR. Their revenue per available room exceeds what it was before the pandemic.

But in San Francisco, hotels are still struggling badly in both occupancy and room rates compared with before the pandemic. Revenue per available room was nearly 23% lower in April compared with the same month in 2019.

The city’s lodging business has been squeezed by crime and other quality-of-life issues that have kept many convention bookers away. Tech companies’ embrace of remote work also undercuts business travel to the city and hotel activity.

Now, a growing number of San Francisco hoteliers are signaling they may be ready to give up. In recent months, the owner of the city’s Huntington Hotel sold the property after facing foreclosure and the Yotel San Francisco hotel sold in a foreclosure auction. Club Quarters San Francisco, which has been in default on its loan since 2020, may also be headed to foreclosure, according to data company Trepp.

----

And this is now one of the largest industries in the US

June 10, 2023
Retail CEOs Signal Rising Alarm as Theft Eats Away Billions in Sales
Executives and analysts discuss shrink at record rate But CEOs fear they’re largely powerless to stop shoplifting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-10/retail-ceos-signal-rising-alarm-as-theft-eats-away-billions-in-sales

Retail executives are sounding the alarm on in-store shoplifting as theft burns a multibillion dollar hole in their balance sheets. While most are vowing to fight back, they’re also expressing fears that they may be largely powerless to stop the problem.

Shoplifting Has Become A $100 Billion Problem For Retailers
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jiawertz/2022/11/20/shoplifting-has-become-a-100-billion-problem-for-retailers/?sh=e1d105f2d624

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Crime is up 40% to 50% since the Pandemic. Then guess what? This winter got colder than last winter, so crime dipped a few percent in 1H 2023.  Now that it is getting warmer, crime is getting worse. Crime is still up 30% since the Pandemic.

---

The premise of this thread is the upper Midwest's population is declining. What does this mean for MU? How does MU keep applications flowing for future freshman classes and continue to attract students to meet its enrollment goals?

One way is for MU to transcend the plight of the upper Midwest and become a truly national school, like Wash U in St. Louis (St. Louis might be worse than Detriot right now). Interestingly, no one has yet to answer this question. Is this because no one thinks MU can become a national university that can attract from across the country (like ND, NW, or Wash U)? Therefore it is stuck with the same problems as Depaul.

---

The population MU pulls from is shrinking. The second post in this thread quotes the mayor of Milwaukee that notes the future of the City rest on its arresting its downward spiral of population loss.

A few-month dip in crime when it is 10 degrees outside is not fixing this.

And neither is Brandon Johnson.

May 3, 2023
Chicago metropolitan area population decline being addressed through revitalization projects
This Chicago metropolitan area, which includes Naperville and Elgin, saw nearly 300,000 people leave in just the last five years.

https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/

The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.

"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.

The MacArthur Foundation and UIC have studied this and found ...

June 2022
MacArthur Foundation/UIC data report analyzing Chicago Metro population trends
https://uofi.app.box.com/s/rgf5h8oc8bnjq9ua2463oolvdj23qyun/file/970584591836

Excerpts from its conclusion

If individuals vote with their feet, Chicago is losing. As we noted at the beginning of this report, Chicago is the slowest growing major city in the U.S. Thousands of Chicago residents have left the city to seek better opportunities elsewhere. In this report, we’ve documented these trends, starting from the period of massive population growth in 1920 to its dramatic decline a century later.


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Nads disagrees just because he loves Chi-town.

[dgies9156]

Nads disagrees just because he loves Chi-town.

I love Chicago too, but you cannot argue with what's happening there. The blue collar growth that fueled the city from the arrival of the railroads until the 1960s is largely gone. The jobs either moved overseas, went south or were replaced with automation (the last option being the most significant factor). Whole plants closed because they simply weren't needed.

Cities are, in many ways, living organisms. They go through cycles of growth, sputtering and decay. Unless they are periodically re-energized, they become Rockford, Flint, Youngstown, Detroit, etc. Even San Francisco which, if you told me 25 years ago would have the issues it is having, I would have laughed, is decaying. It takes innovative political leadership coupled with a firm commitment from the private sector, to make a city grow.

San Francisco's decay, like that of Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and even Milwaukee, begins and ends with corporate commitment. When millions of  square feet of office spaced is empty, corporate commitment wanes. The willingness to do something and participate in civic life gives way because, frankly, corporate leaders don't encounter problems every day if they don't go into an office.

The commitment isn't something that comes from taxation to regulation. It comes from a voluntary commitment to be and do better.

As a final thought, my biggest understanding of the public/private partnership arose from employment in Milwaukee with a firm headquartered there. Our company was a huge supporter of the United Performing Arts Fund ("UPAF") and pushed for both Miller/AmFam Park and the Bradley Center. Their argument was that Milwaukee was competing against Chicago, New York, Minneapolis, Dallas and a host of other major cities for talent. Without an MLB team, without the Bucks or without the civic and cultural opportunities Milwaukee offers, people won't come there to work, build a career and invest in their future.

I could not agree more.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The Chicago metro increased in population between 2010 and 2020. I'm sure it will do the same in 2030.

[Not A Serious Person]

The Chicago metro increased in population between 2010 and 2020. I'm sure it will do the same in 2030.

This is the wrong metric and largely irrelevant.

Every single metro area in the country has increased between 2010 and 2020. But which one grew the slowest? See the MacArthur link/conclusion above ... it was Chicago.

Further, the worry is more about the post-pandemic period, not what happened 13 to 3 years ago.

Chicago lags behind every other metro area in the country. Chicago is falling behind every other metro area in the country.

This is a major problem.

[Uncle Rico]

This is the wrong metric and largely irrelevant.

Every single metro area in the country has increased between 2010 and 2020. But which one grew the slowest? See the MacArthur link/conclusion above ... it was Chicago.

Further, the worry is more about the post-pandemic period, not what happened 13 to 3 years ago.

Chicago lags behind every other metro area in the country. Chicago is falling behind every other metro area in the country.

This is a major problem.

Not really

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

This is the wrong metric and largely irrelevant.

It actually is the right metric and completely relevant. But you don't want to use it because it doesn't support your point. People are acting like the entire area is in some sort of decay. It isn't. It will likely continue to grow because it is a vibrant area with a diverse economy. (Unlike Rockford, Flint and Youngstown.)

Is it growing as fast as others? No. Will it fall behind places like DFW in the next couple of decades? Perhaps.

But these are the same dire predictions people made when LA passed up Chicago a few decades ago - and yet here Chicago remains with nearly 10 million people in the metro.

[Not A Serious Person]

I love Chicago too, but you cannot argue with what's happening there. The blue collar growth that fueled the city from the arrival of the railroads until the 1960s is largely gone. The jobs either moved overseas, went south or were replaced with automation (the last option being the most significant factor). Whole plants closed because they simply weren't needed.

Cities are, in many ways, living organisms. They go through cycles of growth, sputtering and decay. Unless they are periodically re-energized, they become Rockford, Flint, Youngstown, Detroit, etc. Even San Francisco which, if you told me 25 years ago would have the issues it is having, I would have laughed, is decaying. It takes innovative political leadership coupled with a firm commitment from the private sector, to make a city grow.

San Francisco's decay, like that of Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland and even Milwaukee, begins and ends with corporate commitment. When millions of  square feet of office spaced is empty, corporate commitment wanes. The willingness to do something and participate in civic life gives way because, frankly, corporate leaders don't encounter problems every day if they don't go into an office.

The commitment isn't something that comes from taxation to regulation. It comes from a voluntary commitment to be and do better.

As a final thought, my biggest understanding of the public/private partnership arose from employment in Milwaukee with a firm headquartered there. Our company was a huge supporter of the United Performing Arts Fund ("UPAF") and pushed for both Miller/AmFam Park and the Bradley Center. Their argument was that Milwaukee was competing against Chicago, New York, Minneapolis, Dallas and a host of other major cities for talent. Without an MLB team, without the Bucks or without the civic and cultural opportunities Milwaukee offers, people won't come there to work, build a career and invest in their future.

I could not agree more.

I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.

But who is extolling the city's virtues... a bunch of suburbanites who would never consider living or raising their families there.

To them, Chicago is Wrigleyville, Bears games, and neat eateries. They encourage their college graduate children to move to "Disneyland" for a few years after college to "have fun."

But when it is time to get serious, that is, get married and have kids, they move out of the city.

The key is to make the city livable for the middle class. The massive de-population is telling you it is not. The metro Chicago area is growing slower than any place in the country is telling you it is not either.

----

And all of this flows back to MU as a problem.

[Uncle Rico]

I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.

But who is extolling the city's virtues... a bunch of suburbanites who would never consider living or raising their families there.

To them, Chicago is Wrigleyville, Bears games, and neat eateries. They encourage their college graduate children to move to "Disneyland" for a few years after college to "have fun."

But when it is time to get serious, that is, get married and have kids, they move out of the city.

The key is to make the city livable for the middle class. The massive de-population is telling you it is not. The metro Chicago area is growing slower than any place in the country is telling you it is not either.

----

And all of this flows back to MU as a problem.

Not really

[tower912]

Sounds like an opportunity.

[Uncle Rico]

Sounds like an opportunity.

Some people see opportunities, some people dwell in the negative.

Some people see solutions, some people search for more problems

[4everwarriors]

I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.

But who is extolling the city's virtues... a bunch of suburbanites who would never consider living or raising their families there.

To them, Chicago is Wrigleyville, Bears games, and neat eateries. They encourage their college graduate children to move to "Disneyland" for a few years after college to "have fun."

But when it is time to get serious, that is, get married and have kids, they move out of the city.




Nothin's gonna change if those in da city keep votin' in da same weak, lame ass, brainless politicians who are content to ram der sorry agendas up everyone's tuchus, aina?

The key is to make the city livable for the middle class. The massive de-population is telling you it is not. The metro Chicago area is growing slower than any place in the country is telling you it is not either.

----

And all of this flows back to MU as a problem.

[Not A Serious Person]

It actually is the right metric and completely relevant. But you don't want to use it because it doesn't support your point. People are acting like the entire area is in some sort of decay. It isn't. It will likely continue to grow because it is a vibrant area with a diverse economy. (Unlike Rockford, Flint and Youngstown.)

Is it growing as fast as others? No. Will it fall behind places like DFW in the next couple of decades? Perhaps.

But these are the same dire predictions people made when LA passed up Chicago a few decades ago - and yet here Chicago remains with nearly 10 million people in the metro.

empty words

[Not A Serious Person]

Some people see opportunities, some people dwell in the negative.

Some people see solutions, some people search for more problems

not really

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

empty words

"I have no response because of my predetermined point of view."

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.

But who is extolling the city's virtues... a bunch of suburbanites who would never consider living or raising their families there.

To them, Chicago is Wrigleyville, Bears games, and neat eateries. They encourage their college graduate children to move to "Disneyland" for a few years after college to "have fun."

But when it is time to get serious, that is, get married and have kids, they move out of the city.

The key is to make the city livable for the middle class. The massive de-population is telling you it is not. The metro Chicago area is growing slower than any place in the country is telling you it is not either.

----

And all of this flows back to MU as a problem.

Oh my God...people are moving out to the suburbs to buy a house and raise a family?  Since when???  How long has this been happening????

And no...it's hardly a problem for Marquette.

[Uncle Rico]

Cities having problems in 2023.

Rural America having problems in 2023.

Suburbs having problems in 2023.

Stunning developments.

[Jockey]

I live in the city. I raised my kids in the city. And as a resident of the city, I'm disgusted by what is happening.

Move out to Idaho and bunk with Chico. A win/win.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Move out to Idaho and bunk with Chico. A win/win.

No room. Hoopaloop and at least three others are already there

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This is the wrong metric and largely irrelevant.

Every single metro area in the country has increased between 2010 and 2020. But which one grew the slowest? See the MacArthur link/conclusion above ... it was Chicago.

Further, the worry is more about the post-pandemic period, not what happened 13 to 3 years ago.

Chicago lags behind every other metro area in the country. Chicago is falling behind every other metro area in the country.

This is a major problem.

Your supposed premise for this thread is that Chicago is allegedly dying and that will result in MU being hurt because they won't be able to pull as many students from Chicago metro.

If that's the premise, why wouldn't total population growth be the correct method? As far as I am aware, Marquette is not attempting to significantly grow its undergrad population. So if the amount of students Marquette needs to recruit is static, and it's largest recruiting ground is growing (though at a slower rate than other metros), how does that spell doom for Marquette? It sounds like there will be more students to recruit for the same number of spots.

[jesmu84]

I thought the premise was that Chicago wasn't growing at all?

[ATL MU Warrior]

No room. Hoopaloop and at least three others are already there

this is outstanding.  However, they can all co-exist in very limited physical space, so not really a problem.

[dgies9156]

The Chicago metro increased in population between 2010 and 2020. I'm sure it will do the same in 2030.

On what planet? Or, how how do you define growth?

Since 1970, the country has added about 130 million citizens. In that time, the City of Chicago has at best flattened out at between 2.8 million and 3.0 million residents and the Metro Area at between 7.5 million and 8.0 million. The comparative lack of growth has cost Illinois dearly in terms of Congressional delegation and political influence.

The fact that Chicago and Illinois no longer have a viable Republican party also is killing it whenever the GOP takes control of the federal government.

Ya'll can sit there an argue statistics. While you do, Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas-Ft.Worth, Houston, Charlotte, Miami and Orlando are all increasing in population at levels at or above the national average. When I was young and in Nashville, for example, Davidson County ahd 444,600 people and the MSA had about 650,000. There's about 2.4 million people living in the Nashville-Davidson MSA now. Chicago hasn't grown like that in more than 100-years despite having better transportation, more natural resources, far more water and strong corporate citizens.

What Nashville has that Chicago and Illinois don't is an accommodating government, low taxes and a right to work state.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

On what planet? Or, how how do you define growth?

It is factually correct that the Chicago Metropolitan Area had more people in 2020 than it did in 2010. That's not "arguing statistics." That's a fact.