The Future of Cities

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

On what planet? Or, how how do you define growth?

Since 1970, the country has added about 130 million citizens. In that time, the City of Chicago has at best flattened out at between 2.8 million and 3.0 million residents and the Metro Area at between 7.5 million and 8.0 million. The comparative lack of growth has cost Illinois dearly in terms of Congressional delegation and political influence.

On this planet.

In 1970, the Chicago Metro Area had ~7,106,000 people

In 2010, the Chicago Metro Area had ~8,616,000 people (net gain of ~1,490,000 people from 1970)

In 2020, the Chicago Metro Area had ~8,865,000 people (net gain of ~249,000 people from 2010)

This was all Sultan stated. No one has disputed that the city of Chicago has lost population or that the metro area is growing at a slower rate than most other metropolitan areas. What is disputed is how much of a problem this is for MU.

[jesmu84]

What Nashville has is an accommodating government, low taxes and a right to work state.

Any sources to back up your assertion that the above is what's driving Nashville's population growth?

[Not A Serious Person]

It is factually correct that the Chicago Metropolitan Area had more people in 2020 than it did in 2010. That's not "arguing statistics." That's a fact.

And according to ABCTV data team, it has lost 300,000 people since.

The population was the slowest growing in the country, now it is reversing.

So to quote you... Take the L so that everyone will stop dunking on you.

[Not A Serious Person]

On this planet.

In 1970, the Chicago Metro Area had ~7,106,000 people

In 2010, the Chicago Metro Area had ~8,616,000 people (net gain of ~1,490,000 people from 1970)

In 2020, the Chicago Metro Area had ~8,865,000 people (net gain of ~249,000 people from 2010)

This was all Sultan stated. No one has disputed that the city of Chicago has lost population or that the metro area is growing at a slower rate than most other metropolitan areas. What is disputed is how much of a problem this is for MU.

You do realize their was an event called a pandemic in 2020 and it changed a lot of things. Including working from home, crime and population migration.

Sultan is using historical stats that no longer apply. He is doing it on purpose.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

And according to ABCTV data team, it has lost 300,000 people since.

The population was the slowest growing in the country, now it is reversing.

So to quote you... Take the L so that everyone will stop dunking on you.

You do realize their was an event called a pandemic in 2020 and it changed a lot of things. Including working from home, crime and population migration.

Sultan is using historical stats that no longer apply. He is doing it on purpose.

2020: ~8,865,000
2021: ~8,877,000 (~increase of 12,000)
2022: ~8,901,000 (~increase of 24,000)
2023: ~8,937,000 (~increase of 36,000)

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22956/chicago/population#:~:text=The%20current%20metro%20area%20population,a%200.14%25%20increase%20from%202020.

You've brought up the ABC article before. I'd need to see how exactly they collected their data. Examining change of address forms doesn't seem like the most accurate method for determining actual growth (For example this only accounts for people moving in and out of the metro area, not new people being born/dying inside the metro).

If the Chicago metro area has actually lost close to 300K people in 5 years (that start actually predates the start of the pandemic and the 2020 census) than that could be a problem for MU if that trend continues. I'm skeptical that this is a true figure.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

And according to ABCTV data team, it has lost 300,000 people since.

The population was the slowest growing in the country, now it is reversing.

So to quote you... Take the L so that everyone will stop dunking on you.

Lol. I’m quoting facts. You make sh*t up.

Sorry the truth is difficult for you to manage.

[dgies9156]

Any sources to back up your assertion that the above is what's driving Nashville's population growth?

Look it up dude.

I know the answer because I lived there. Maybe you will learn something!

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Look it up dude.

I know the answer because I lived there. Maybe you will learn something!

Lol.

[Jockey]

Look it up dude.

I know the answer because I lived there. Maybe you will learn something!

A liberal city in the South? A perfect recipe for growth. And yes, the city government is accommodating, as opposed to state gov't.

[Uncle Rico]

A liberal city in the South? A perfect recipe for growth. And yes, the city government is accommodating, as opposed to state gov't.

Don’t worry, the state government of Tennessee is doing everything they can to slow that growth down in Nashville

[jesmu84]

A liberal city in the South? A perfect recipe for growth. And yes, the city government is accommodating, as opposed to state gov't.

I'm making the assumption his reference to "accommodating government" is not about the city since he says right to work "state" in the same statement.

[jesmu84]

Look it up dude.

I know the answer because I lived there. Maybe you will learn something!

You made the claim. Just looking for some data or source behind the claim.

If it's your opinion or anecdotal, no problem.

[tower912]

I appreciate Heisy's challenge to our thinking about cities.   I think he omits climate change from his factoring.  Where is all the fresh water?  Who will control it?  When the sea level impacts New York, DC, Florida, NOLA, Houston, where will they go?  When Phoenix is uninhabitable, where will they go?
Those traditional rust belt cities will look pretty good.

Also, demographics are about to change.  The boomers are going to die.  What do Y,Z, and Millenials want?  What are they going to do about their debt?

So, thanks, Heisie.  I don't think your analysis factors everything.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I appreciate Heisy's challenge to our thinking about cities.   I think he omits climate change from his factoring.  Where is all the fresh water?  Who will control it?  When the sea level impacts New York, DC, Florida, NOLA, Houston, where will they go?  When Phoenix is uninhabitable, where will they go?
Those traditional rust belt cities will look pretty good.

Also, demographics are about to change.  The boomers are going to die.  What do Y,Z, and Millenials want?  What are they going to do about their debt?

So, thanks, Heisie.  I don't think your analysis factors everything.

Shocking.

[Jockey]

I'm making the assumption his reference to "accommodating government" is not about the city since he says right to work "state" in the same statement.

I figured he was praising the state when he talked about government. That is why I specifically mentioned Nashville politics.

Good to see I read the post the same way as you and Unc.

[Not A Serious Person]

2020: ~8,865,000
2021: ~8,877,000 (~increase of 12,000)
2022: ~8,901,000 (~increase of 24,000)
2023: ~8,937,000 (~increase of 36,000)

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22956/chicago/population#:~:text=The%20current%20metro%20area%20population,a%200.14%25%20increase%20from%202020.

You've brought up the ABC article before. I'd need to see how exactly they collected their data. Examining change of address forms doesn't seem like the most accurate method for determining actual growth (For example this only accounts for people moving in and out of the metro area, not new people being born/dying inside the metro).

If the Chicago metro area has actually lost close to 300K people in 5 years (that start actually predates the start of the pandemic and the 2020 census) than that could be a problem for MU if that trend continues. I'm skeptical that this is a true figure.

Macrotrends uses UN population projections.

https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf

They base this on a model of birth/death and known migration patterns for 1758 population units.

At the top level, it is very accurate, that is, world or country-level population. After that, it can miss badly on the subsets (such as Chicago metro data) and can be missed by as much as 6%.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2011/01/how-accurate-are-population-forecasts.html

And this is key; these estimates are made using pre-covid data.

And they already have the estimate out to 2037, as your link shows. So, if that is to be believed as accurate, we already have the next 15 years done now.

So, no one was counted for these estimates. It was just apportioning the world estimate down to country and metro areas.

--------

Regarding the ABC Data ...

https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/

The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.

"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.

Florida and Texas are top destinations. Black residents are mostly heading to Georgia.

"The rent burden of the Black community is, for example, very high. They are paying a lot more than 30% of their income on rent," Arenas said.

Moore's former Auburn Gresham neighborhood was hit particularly hard, losing the most residents in recent years: 17,000 Black residents from 1990 to 2020. About one-third have left in the last 10 years.

Another study shows that Cook County lost 68,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, according to recent US Census estimates. Only Los Angeles County in California saw a bigger population decline.

----

Sultan mocked the idea that people leave the city when they get married and start having kids. He is correct that has been the case for 50 years.

But what has changed is the highlighted part. They are not leaving for the suburbs; they are leaving the state.

And this is the key., It is middle-class and poor minorities that are leaving.

[Uncle Rico]

Macrotrends uses UN population projections.

https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf

They base this on a model of birth/death and known migration patterns for 1758 population units.

At the top level, it is very accurate, that is, world or country-level population. After that, it can miss badly on the subsets (such as Chicago metro data) and can be missed by as much as 6%.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2011/01/how-accurate-are-population-forecasts.html

And this is key; these estimates are made using pre-covid data.

And they already have the estimate out to 2037, as your link shows. So, if that is to be believed as accurate, we already have the next 15 years done now.

So, no one was counted for these estimates. It was just apportioning the world estimate down to country and metro areas.

--------

Regarding the ABC Data ...

https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/

The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.

"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.

Florida and Texas are top destinations. Black residents are mostly heading to Georgia.

"The rent burden of the Black community is, for example, very high. They are paying a lot more than 30% of their income on rent," Arenas said.

Moore's former Auburn Gresham neighborhood was hit particularly hard, losing the most residents in recent years: 17,000 Black residents from 1990 to 2020. About one-third have left in the last 10 years.

Another study shows that Cook County lost 68,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, according to recent US Census estimates. Only Los Angeles County in California saw a bigger population decline.

----

Sultan mocked the idea that people leave the city when they get married and start having kids. He is correct that has been the case for 50 years.

But what has changed is the highlighted part. They are not leaving for the suburbs; they are leaving the state.

And this is the key., It is middle-class and poor minorities that are leaving.

Cool

[Not A Serious Person]

President Lovell has already stated that MU is being hurt by the de-population of the Midwest.

It is a serious problem and thankfully those is charge are taking it seriously.

=======


https://eu.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2020/12/01/marquette-layoffs-enrollment-declines-raise-questions-diversity/6180047002/

Many universities had a broken business model — raising tuition with one hand, then slashing it through financial aid discounts with the other. Schools facing enrollment declines and other challenges were merging or closing entirely. Students were taking on more debt while questioning if college was worth the cost. In April 2019, the polling firm Gallup declared "a crisis in confidence in higher ed."

"Higher ed was ripe for disruption," said Michael Lovell, president of Marquette University.

This fall, Lovell announced that the financial strains caused by the pandemic combined with projected future enrollment declines had left the university with a $45 million budget hole beginning in 2022 and beyond.

The university needed to "right-size" for a future in which, experts predict, there will be fewer high school graduates to recruit.

Marquette would need to be smaller, Lovell said. The university would need to invest more in online education, high-demand programs like health sciences, data and computer science and some business programs, and partnerships with local employers and other universities.

The estimated loss translated to the potential layoffs of 225 to 300-plus employees — numbers that rattled the school's 2,811-person workforce.

The debate over Marquette's future is a case study on the difficult questions universities face in today's environment.

----

Marquette — which as Wisconsin's largest private college enrolls 11,550 students — this fall saw its smallest freshman class in more than two decades, according to university data. The class has 1,647 students, 350 students fewer than the university had expected. The decline is in line with a 16% decline among first-year students nationwide.

"To think that there is an easy way to get out of this, other than structurally changing, I believe is not realistic," Lovell said. "We are going to do everything we can to preserve who we are and what we do, but we also have to deal with the realities of what's happening in our industry."

---

Much of the debate over future enrollment declines at Marquette has centered around a 2018 book called "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education" by Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe.

The book predicts regional enrollment declines by analyzing birth rates, migration patterns and other factors that might determine if people will attend college, such as gender, race, family income and whether students' parents went to college.

Grawe predicts the Midwest could see a 15% enrollment decline starting around 2026. That's because, beginning around 2008, many families who would have sent their children to college delayed having kids, resulting in a decline in high school graduates in the near future.

At Marquette, the debate is less around the reality of Grawe's predictions than it is about what to do in response. Should the university expand its reach? Shrink in size? Or some combination of the two?

"These are really challenging questions," Grawe said. "Neither of them have obvious answers, certainly not answers that are going to be true for every institution."

At Marquette, faculty are raising fundamental questions about what it really means to say there will be fewer "traditional" college students to recruit from. Many point out that — despite recent diversification — most of Marquette's student body is white and the university recruits heavily from middle- and upper-class Chicago suburbs.


----

No easy answers

Much of the debate at Marquette comes back to questions of what type of institution the university can and should aim to be.

Who are the students it should recruit? What types of programs and majors should it offer? How should it embody its Jesuit, Catholic mission?

Marquette's Jesuit community weighed in recently on the last question, encouraging Lovell's team and the board of trustees to consider the university's mission alongside the need to reduce costs.

In an open letter, the Rev. Gregory O'Meara, rector of the university's Jesuit community, described the university's mission through the type of graduate Marquette should aim to produce: Those with a holistic education of the physical and spiritual subjects, who pose big, difficult questions the the wider world and who "have a heart for those who suffer in this world."

Key to all of this, O'Meara wrote, is a grounding in the humanities — subjects like philosophy, literature, law, history and cultural studies — that teach them about human society and culture.

"At its fundamental level Marquette cannot simply figure out how much money it has and then decide where to spend it," he wrote. "Rather, it must articulate robust values rooted in the history of the Society of Jesus and in Marquette's own founding documents."

Lovell and his team say maintaining that mission is at the forefront of their deliberations, and a commitment to the university's Catholic, Jesuit roots is critical to efforts to distinguish the university among other choices for prospective students.

On the question of improving the diversity of the student body, Lovell noted that even with this fall's enrollment decline, Marquette has seen strong numbers of students of color and first-generation students enroll. They made up 30% and 22% of this fall's freshman class, respectively.

In fall 2019, 14% of Marquette's undergraduate student body was Hispanic/Latino, 4% was Black, 7% Asian and 68% white, according to data from the U.S. Department of Education.

The university gave out $33 million in scholarships to Hispanic students this year, Lovell said, as it works toward achieving the threshold — 25% of the student body — that is necessary to qualify as a "Hispanic-Serving Institution," a federal designation that unlocks additional grants for the university and its students.

Lovell said Marquette must raise more funding for scholarships and invest in support services that help students of color and first-generation students thrive in college and graduate within four years.

The current financial challenges, he said, are slowing progress down.

"It's easy for people to say that maybe you're backing away from (diversity efforts), but I can tell you that when you're in a crisis, there are a lot of things that you're worrying about," Lovell said. "Those things are still important to us, but sometimes you have to react to the things that are right in front of you."

Sergio González, who came to Marquette three years ago as the school's first professor of Latinx studies, said the basis of the argument for downsizing doesn't match up with the commitment to expand the university's reach into underserved communities.

"There's this cognitive dissonance that we're saying we can't reach the students that we need to make Marquette what it needs to be, while at the same time the university is talking about how it wants to diversify its student population to be more representative of the community in which we live," he said.

[Uncle Rico]

President Lovell has already stated that MU is being hurt by the de-population of the Midwest.

It is a serious problem and thankfully those is charge are taking it seriously.

=======


https://eu.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2020/12/01/marquette-layoffs-enrollment-declines-raise-questions-diversity/6180047002/

Many universities had a broken business model — raising tuition with one hand, then slashing it through financial aid discounts with the other. Schools facing enrollment declines and other challenges were merging or closing entirely. Students were taking on more debt while questioning if college was worth the cost. In April 2019, the polling firm Gallup declared "a crisis in confidence in higher ed."

"Higher ed was ripe for disruption," said Michael Lovell, president of Marquette University.

This fall, Lovell announced that the financial strains caused by the pandemic combined with projected future enrollment declines had left the university with a $45 million budget hole beginning in 2022 and beyond.

The university needed to "right-size" for a future in which, experts predict, there will be fewer high school graduates to recruit.

Marquette would need to be smaller, Lovell said. The university would need to invest more in online education, high-demand programs like health sciences, data and computer science and some business programs, and partnerships with local employers and other universities.

The estimated loss translated to the potential layoffs of 225 to 300-plus employees — numbers that rattled the school's 2,811-person workforce.

The debate over Marquette's future is a case study on the difficult questions universities face in today's environment.

----

Marquette — which as Wisconsin's largest private college enrolls 11,550 students — this fall saw its smallest freshman class in more than two decades, according to university data. The class has 1,647 students, 350 students fewer than the university had expected. The decline is in line with a 16% decline among first-year students nationwide.

"To think that there is an easy way to get out of this, other than structurally changing, I believe is not realistic," Lovell said. "We are going to do everything we can to preserve who we are and what we do, but we also have to deal with the realities of what's happening in our industry."

---

Much of the debate over future enrollment declines at Marquette has centered around a 2018 book called "Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education" by Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe.

The book predicts regional enrollment declines by analyzing birth rates, migration patterns and other factors that might determine if people will attend college, such as gender, race, family income and whether students' parents went to college.

Grawe predicts the Midwest could see a 15% enrollment decline starting around 2026. That's because, beginning around 2008, many families who would have sent their children to college delayed having kids, resulting in a decline in high school graduates in the near future.

At Marquette, the debate is less around the reality of Grawe's predictions than it is about what to do in response. Should the university expand its reach? Shrink in size? Or some combination of the two?

"These are really challenging questions," Grawe said. "Neither of them have obvious answers, certainly not answers that are going to be true for every institution."

At Marquette, faculty are raising fundamental questions about what it really means to say there will be fewer "traditional" college students to recruit from. Many point out that — despite recent diversification — most of Marquette's student body is white and the university recruits heavily from middle- and upper-class Chicago suburbs.


----

No easy answers

Much of the debate at Marquette comes back to questions of what type of institution the university can and should aim to be.

Who are the students it should recruit? What types of programs and majors should it offer? How should it embody its Jesuit, Catholic mission?

Marquette's Jesuit community weighed in recently on the last question, encouraging Lovell's team and the board of trustees to consider the university's mission alongside the need to reduce costs.

In an open letter, the Rev. Gregory O'Meara, rector of the university's Jesuit community, described the university's mission through the type of graduate Marquette should aim to produce: Those with a holistic education of the physical and spiritual subjects, who pose big, difficult questions the the wider world and who "have a heart for those who suffer in this world."

Key to all of this, O'Meara wrote, is a grounding in the humanities — subjects like philosophy, literature, law, history and cultural studies — that teach them about human society and culture.

"At its fundamental level Marquette cannot simply figure out how much money it has and then decide where to spend it," he wrote. "Rather, it must articulate robust values rooted in the history of the Society of Jesus and in Marquette's own founding documents."

Lovell and his team say maintaining that mission is at the forefront of their deliberations, and a commitment to the university's Catholic, Jesuit roots is critical to efforts to distinguish the university among other choices for prospective students.

On the question of improving the diversity of the student body, Lovell noted that even with this fall's enrollment decline, Marquette has seen strong numbers of students of color and first-generation students enroll. They made up 30% and 22% of this fall's freshman class, respectively.

In fall 2019, 14% of Marquette's undergraduate student body was Hispanic/Latino, 4% was Black, 7% Asian and 68% white, according to data from the U.S. Department of Education.

The university gave out $33 million in scholarships to Hispanic students this year, Lovell said, as it works toward achieving the threshold — 25% of the student body — that is necessary to qualify as a "Hispanic-Serving Institution," a federal designation that unlocks additional grants for the university and its students.

Lovell said Marquette must raise more funding for scholarships and invest in support services that help students of color and first-generation students thrive in college and graduate within four years.

The current financial challenges, he said, are slowing progress down.

"It's easy for people to say that maybe you're backing away from (diversity efforts), but I can tell you that when you're in a crisis, there are a lot of things that you're worrying about," Lovell said. "Those things are still important to us, but sometimes you have to react to the things that are right in front of you."

Sergio González, who came to Marquette three years ago as the school's first professor of Latinx studies, said the basis of the argument for downsizing doesn't match up with the commitment to expand the university's reach into underserved communities.

"There's this cognitive dissonance that we're saying we can't reach the students that we need to make Marquette what it needs to be, while at the same time the university is talking about how it wants to diversify its student population to be more representative of the community in which we live," he said.

Cool

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Macrotrends uses UN population projections.

https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf

They base this on a model of birth/death and known migration patterns for 1758 population units.

At the top level, it is very accurate, that is, world or country-level population. After that, it can miss badly on the subsets (such as Chicago metro data) and can be missed by as much as 6%.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2011/01/how-accurate-are-population-forecasts.html

And this is key; these estimates are made using pre-covid data.

And they already have the estimate out to 2037, as your link shows. So, if that is to be believed as accurate, we already have the next 15 years done now.

So, no one was counted for these estimates. It was just apportioning the world estimate down to country and metro areas.

--------

Regarding the ABC Data ...

https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-metropolitan-area-population-illinois-growth/13208464/

The ABC Data Team looked at relocation trends by analyzing United States Postal Service change-of-address forms. They found that over the last five years, more people left the Chicago metro area, which includes suburban Naperville and Elgin, than moved in, a net loss of at least 294,000 people. Only New York City and San Francisco saw bigger population declines.

"A lot of these decisions to move aren't being made willfully. Chicago is losing a lot of the working class and blue collar jobs," said Iván Arenas of UIC's Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy.

Florida and Texas are top destinations. Black residents are mostly heading to Georgia.

"The rent burden of the Black community is, for example, very high. They are paying a lot more than 30% of their income on rent," Arenas said.

Moore's former Auburn Gresham neighborhood was hit particularly hard, losing the most residents in recent years: 17,000 Black residents from 1990 to 2020. About one-third have left in the last 10 years.

Another study shows that Cook County lost 68,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, according to recent US Census estimates. Only Los Angeles County in California saw a bigger population decline.

----

Sultan mocked the idea that people leave the city when they get married and start having kids. He is correct that has been the case for 50 years.

But what has changed is the highlighted part. They are not leaving for the suburbs; they are leaving the state.

And this is the key., It is middle-class and poor minorities that are leaving.

To be clear, Macrotrends uses UN Projections for future years. It uses UN estimates for current and past years. Those are two different processes, and as you can imagine, estimates are more accurate than projections.

As for the ABC study again I would need to analyze their method before drawing any conclusions. Looking at post office change of address forms is an incomplete way of measuring population change. If a net of 300,000 people moved away but a net of 300,001 people were added via birth/death rate within the metro, the metro area grew and that's just one limitation of that methodology.

I am very familiar with Grawe's work, he's actually been talking about this a lot longer than his 2018 book. I was hearing about him back in grad school in 2013. He is very focused on demographic changes but also speaks a lot about how cost of college has far outpaced wages and that being a driving factor for less people going to universities, specifically private ones. Pay more to earn less. If you had titled your thread "the future of the Midwest" we probably would have had a lot more common ground. I think Marquette is well aware of future challenges and has taken appropriate steps to mitigate them. All without moving their campus to another city.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

On what planet? Or, how how do you define growth?

Since 1970, the country has added about 130 million citizens. In that time, the City of Chicago has at best flattened out at between 2.8 million and 3.0 million residents and the Metro Area at between 7.5 million and 8.0 million. The comparative lack of growth has cost Illinois dearly in terms of Congressional delegation and political influence.

The fact that Chicago and Illinois no longer have a viable Republican party also is killing it whenever the GOP takes control of the federal government.

Ya'll can sit there an argue statistics. While you do, Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas-Ft.Worth, Houston, Charlotte, Miami and Orlando are all increasing in population at levels at or above the national average. When I was young and in Nashville, for example, Davidson County ahd 444,600 people and the MSA had about 650,000. There's about 2.4 million people living in the Nashville-Davidson MSA now. Chicago hasn't grown like that in more than 100-years despite having better transportation, more natural resources, far more water and strong corporate citizens.

What Nashville has that Chicago and Illinois don't is an accommodating government, low taxes and a right to work state.

It was either the Atlantic or Rolling Stone that had a related article on Sun Belt growth a decade or so ago.  Three key things were air conditioning and space and cars plus inexpensive gas.  The Sun Belt has space to keep expanding the suburbs which keeps prices down on the outer ring because there is competition with new housing being built growing into the open space and so on.  Inexpensive gas means people will live farther away from the city center for less expensive newer housing.

The other part was it's cheaper to build infrastructure new.  Roads, sidewalks, sewer, water.  It doesn't need major maintenance and overhaul for 30 years+.  Builders prefer to build new because it's less expensive for them to put in as part of a development rather than refurbishing to construct. 
The Northeast, for example, has no space left for large developments and the infrastructure is often a century plus old so more expensive to repair and replace.  Less competition with new housing so prices go up.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Marquette has already been planning for the demographic decreases.  It is smaller, and more focused on high net tuition programs like engineering, nursing and business. The size of your enrollment class isn't the only thing that matters. Any college or university can be smaller, but if those who are enrolled pay pretty well and/or you have the endowment to fund financial aid considerably, they can actually be in better fiscal shape then when they were larger.

Smaller enrollment means less pressure on your infrastructure, your academic and student services, instruction, etc. A lot of schools are resetting their fiscal expectations at a smaller enrollment figure and getting their costs in line to match it. 

That's probably a way better route for Marquette to follow than trying to become more of a national university to retain enrollment size. That's an expensive proposition. Not only do you have to recruit more nationally, but you are going to have to get way more competitive on the financial aid side. I'm not sure that's a sustainable model - and I think Marquette agrees.

Marquette, as well as any college or university with any sort of long-range plan, has been preparing for this for years now. Certainly long before Heisey started posting on the topic here.

[Not A Serious Person]

Marquette has already been planning for the demographic decreases.  It is smaller, and more focused on high net tuition programs like engineering, nursing and business. The size of your enrollment class isn't the only thing that matters. Any college or university can be smaller, but if those who are enrolled pay pretty well and/or you have the endowment to fund financial aid considerably, they can actually be in better fiscal shape then when they were larger.

Smaller enrollment means less pressure on your infrastructure, your academic and student services, instruction, etc. A lot of schools are resetting their fiscal expectations at a smaller enrollment figure and getting their costs in line to match it. 

That's probably a way better route for Marquette to follow than trying to become more of a national university to retain enrollment size. That's an expensive proposition. Not only do you have to recruit more nationally, but you are going to have to get way more competitive on the financial aid side. I'm not sure that's a sustainable model - and I think Marquette agrees.

Marquette, as well as any college or university with any sort of long-range plan, has been preparing for this for years now. Certainly long before Heisey started posting on the topic here.

But you spent 18 pages telling us there was no demographic decrease.

gaslighting

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

But you spent 18 pages telling us there was no demographic decrease.

gaslighting

I absolutely did NOT do that.  I stated the fact that there was no decrease in the Chicago metropolitan area between 2010-20.

Illiterate.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

But you spent 18 pages telling us there was no demographic decrease.

gaslighting

Heisey, you are trying to conflate two separate issues. One is the future of cities which you seem to believe is bleak. The other is a demographic shift specifically in high school graduates likely to go to college in the midwest and northeast.