collapse

* '23-'24 SOTG Tally


2023-24 Season SoG Tally
Kolek11
Ighodaro6
Jones, K.6
Mitchell2
Jones, S.1
Joplin1

'22-23
'21-22 * '20-21 * '19-20
'18-19 * '17-18 * '16-17
'15-16 * '14-15 * '13-14
'12-13 * '11-12 * '10-11

* Big East Standings

* Recent Posts

2024-25 Roster by TAMU, Knower of Ball
[June 22, 2024, 10:43:50 PM]


2024 Mock Drafts by willie warrior
[June 22, 2024, 08:46:28 PM]


What do Wisconsinites call people from Illinois? by MU82
[June 22, 2024, 08:28:59 PM]


2025 Bracketology by MarquetteMike1977
[June 22, 2024, 06:44:09 PM]


Recruiting as of 6/15/24 by Juan Anderson's Mixtape
[June 22, 2024, 03:08:45 PM]


Oso Article by Herman Cain
[June 22, 2024, 10:31:08 AM]


More conference realignment talk by WhiteTrash
[June 21, 2024, 09:02:22 PM]

Please Register - It's FREE!

The absolute only thing required for this FREE registration is a valid e-mail address.  We keep all your information confidential and will NEVER give or sell it to anyone else.
Login to get rid of this box (and ads) , or register NOW!

* Next up: The long cold summer

Marquette
Marquette

Open Practice

Date/Time: Oct 11, 2024 ???
TV: NA
Schedule for 2023-24
27-10

Poll

Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”

Yes
111 (72.1%)
No
43 (27.9%)

Total Members Voted: 154

Author Topic: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”  (Read 17171 times)

Uncle Rico

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 10202
    • Mazos Hamburgers
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #75 on: March 27, 2023, 06:57:16 PM »
Seriously guys.  I'll allow you each one more reply to each other if you choose.  After that, I've got the banhammer ready.

The tournament is a crapshoot.  Ball knowers know it
Ramsey head thoroughly up his ass.

FartyEightHours

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #76 on: March 27, 2023, 06:58:02 PM »
Those are pretty good odds.  I wish I could find those odds in a game at poto
My adjectives are wise, brilliant, and sexy

5DollarPitcher

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1694
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #77 on: March 27, 2023, 07:06:37 PM »
The tournament is a crapshoot.  Ball knowers know it
No

(My 1 reply token)

Hards Alumni

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6712
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #78 on: March 27, 2023, 07:08:03 PM »

FartyEightHours

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #79 on: March 27, 2023, 07:13:07 PM »
This is boring.  Nobody has even defined what the parameters of “crapshoot” is.  It might mean different things to different people.  This is a giant waste of time
My adjectives are wise, brilliant, and sexy

TAMU, Knower of Ball

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22243
  • Meat Eater certified
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #80 on: March 27, 2023, 07:41:22 PM »
This is boring.  Nobody has even defined what the parameters of “crapshoot” is.  It might mean different things to different people.  This is a giant waste of time

Farty for the win!
TAMU

I do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.


DoctorV

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2580
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #81 on: March 27, 2023, 09:22:54 PM »
Some would argue it’s crapcrap

lostpassword

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 164
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #82 on: March 27, 2023, 09:30:04 PM »
This is boring.  Nobody has even defined what the parameters of “crapshoot” is.  It might mean different things to different people.  This is a giant waste of time

Agreed, but this got my thinking and I did some math.

Scenario:
Team #1 - head and shoulders the best
Teams #2 thru #64 - equally crummy
Head-to-head, Team #1 will takes 9 of 10 games against any of #2 thru #64.

With 6 rounds:
Single-Elimination tourney: Team #1 wins 53% (upset every other year)
Best of 3: Team #1 wins 84.3% (upset once every 6 years)
Best of 7: Team #1 wins 99.2% (upset once a century)

Team #1 is far and away the favorite - Teams 2 thru 64 each have well under a 1% shot - but it's basically a toss up versus the field with lose and go home.  If I change the scenario to Team #1 wins 19 of 20 instead of 9 out of 10, it's still under 75% likely to win it all.


5DollarPitcher

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1694
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #83 on: March 27, 2023, 10:09:27 PM »
Agreed, but this got my thinking and I did some math.

Scenario:
Team #1 - head and shoulders the best
Teams #2 thru #64 - equally crummy
Head-to-head, Team #1 will takes 9 of 10 games against any of #2 thru #64.

With 6 rounds:
Single-Elimination tourney: Team #1 wins 53% (upset every other year)
Best of 3: Team #1 wins 84.3% (upset once every 6 years)
Best of 7: Team #1 wins 99.2% (upset once a century)

Team #1 is far and away the favorite - Teams 2 thru 64 each have well under a 1% shot - but it's basically a toss up versus the field with lose and go home.  If I change the scenario to Team #1 wins 19 of 20 instead of 9 out of 10, it's still under 75% likely to win it all.
Even in this ridiculous scenario, the most probable outcome out of 64 mathematically possible outcomes happens 53% of the time in a single-elimination format.

Now compare this with the most probable outcome out of 12 mathematically possible outcomes happening only 16.67% of the time in a literal crapshoot.

Mathematically, you cannot argue that this tournament is a crapshoot.

You can certainly emotionally call it that if that feels right. Math and facts can't really stop anyone from doing that.

wadesworld

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 17632
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #84 on: March 27, 2023, 10:10:37 PM »
Definite crapshoot or the best team would win every year.
Rocket Trigger Warning (wild that saying this would trigger anyone, but it's the world we live in): Black Lives Matter

5DollarPitcher

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1694
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #85 on: March 27, 2023, 10:12:46 PM »
Definite crapshoot or the best team would win every year.
You need to compare apples to apples.

In craps you have 12 possible outcomes. You need to pool teams by ranking into 12 tiers to create an honest comparison.

Statistically, the champion comes from the top tier (of 12) 86% of the time.

lostpassword

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 164
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #86 on: March 27, 2023, 10:39:22 PM »
You need to compare apples to apples.

In craps you have 12 possible outcomes. You need to pool teams by ranking into 12 tiers to create an honest comparison.

Statistically, the champion comes from the top tier (of 12) 86% of the time.

Ruh roh... I think you have exceeded your post quota in this thread.

5DollarPitcher

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1694
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #87 on: March 27, 2023, 10:42:37 PM »
Ruh roh... I think you have exceeded your post quota in this thread.
I was told we get one more reply *to each other*

Haven’t replied to Rico as far as I know

FartyEightHours

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 168
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #88 on: March 27, 2023, 10:45:17 PM »
Chicos would have loved this thread 10 yrs ago when everyone called him out for saying it was a crapshoot.  P.S.  I believe there is no way in hell your odds for ANY team to win is synonymous with a “crapshoot” of two dice.
My adjectives are wise, brilliant, and sexy

wadesworld

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 17632
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #89 on: March 27, 2023, 11:19:04 PM »
My favorite part is that the original post says definitions will not be provided, answer as you wish. Then when the poll doesn’t go his way he tries to give definitions. Lol.
Rocket Trigger Warning (wild that saying this would trigger anyone, but it's the world we live in): Black Lives Matter

brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 26544
  • Warning-This poster may trigger thin skinned users
    • Cracked Sidewalks
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #90 on: March 28, 2023, 12:26:47 AM »
You need to compare apples to apples.

In craps you have 12 possible outcomes. You need to pool teams by ranking into 12 tiers to create an honest comparison.

Statistically, the champion comes from the top tier (of 12) 86% of the time.

Okay...but effectively, the 12-16 seeds are the equivalent of rolling a 1 or 13 in craps. It never happens. And as I said earlier, you basically have the top-25 as your potential Championship tier. Because the number of permutations in craps are not equal, you need to break those 25 teams into 11 tiers (not 12, there are only 11 different numeric totals you can roll in craps).

7 - #1 team
6/8 - #2-3 teams
5/9 - #4-7 teams
4/10 - #8-13 teams
3/11 - #14-21 teams
2/12 - #22+ teams

Next are the combinations.

7 - 6 combinations
6/8 - 10 combinations
5/9 - 8 combinations
4/10 - 6 combinations
3/11 - 4 combinations
2/12 - 2 combinations

So comparing the permutations to the ratio, here's what we get expectation vs reality (considering that 21 tournaments for 11 outcomes is a very small sample size):

#1 - 14.3% actual vs 16.7% expected
#2-3 - 33.3% actual vs 27.8% expected
#4-7 - 38.1% actual vs 22.2% expected
#8-13 - 0.0% actual vs 16.7% expected
#14-21 - 9.5% actual vs 11.1% expected
#22+ - 4.8% actual vs 5.6% expected

The disparities for 4-13 are stark, but everything else is almost exact. In terms of crapshoot, with the idea that your actual contenders are the top 25 or so teams, with some margin for error given in the 2/12 roll range for the outliers like 2021 UCLA or 2023 Miami or the hypothetical 12-16 winning it all, it sure feels like crapshoot is a pretty accurate depiction. And this is factoring UConn in as the 2023 winners already, so the 4-7 number would come down while the 14-21 or 22+ range would go up if it's anyone but UConn.

But ultimately...it doesn't really matter. It's just a mathematically apropos statement to make.
This space reserved for a 2024 2025 National Championship celebration banner.

Uncle Rico

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 10202
    • Mazos Hamburgers
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #91 on: March 28, 2023, 06:17:36 AM »
Okay...but effectively, the 12-16 seeds are the equivalent of rolling a 1 or 13 in craps. It never happens. And as I said earlier, you basically have the top-25 as your potential Championship tier. Because the number of permutations in craps are not equal, you need to break those 25 teams into 11 tiers (not 12, there are only 11 different numeric totals you can roll in craps).

7 - #1 team
6/8 - #2-3 teams
5/9 - #4-7 teams
4/10 - #8-13 teams
3/11 - #14-21 teams
2/12 - #22+ teams

Next are the combinations.

7 - 6 combinations
6/8 - 10 combinations
5/9 - 8 combinations
4/10 - 6 combinations
3/11 - 4 combinations
2/12 - 2 combinations

So comparing the permutations to the ratio, here's what we get expectation vs reality (considering that 21 tournaments for 11 outcomes is a very small sample size):

#1 - 14.3% actual vs 16.7% expected
#2-3 - 33.3% actual vs 27.8% expected
#4-7 - 38.1% actual vs 22.2% expected
#8-13 - 0.0% actual vs 16.7% expected
#14-21 - 9.5% actual vs 11.1% expected
#22+ - 4.8% actual vs 5.6% expected

The disparities for 4-13 are stark, but everything else is almost exact. In terms of crapshoot, with the idea that your actual contenders are the top 25 or so teams, with some margin for error given in the 2/12 roll range for the outliers like 2021 UCLA or 2023 Miami or the hypothetical 12-16 winning it all, it sure feels like crapshoot is a pretty accurate depiction. And this is factoring UConn in as the 2023 winners already, so the 4-7 number would come down while the 14-21 or 22+ range would go up if it's anyone but UConn.

But ultimately...it doesn't really matter. It's just a mathematically apropos statement to make.

Yup, it’s a crapshoot
Ramsey head thoroughly up his ass.

#UnleashSean

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3561
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #92 on: March 28, 2023, 07:34:54 AM »
You need to compare apples to apples.

In craps you have 12 possible outcomes. You need to pool teams by ranking into 12 tiers to create an honest comparison.

Statistically, the champion comes from the top tier (of 12) 86% of the time.

As already stated in the previous thread, you're taking the definition of crapshoot too literally.


5DollarPitcher

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1694
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #93 on: March 28, 2023, 07:40:16 AM »
As already stated in the previous thread, you're taking the definition of crapshoot too literally.
So what you’re saying is it’s not a crapshoot

5DollarPitcher

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1694
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #94 on: March 28, 2023, 07:43:23 AM »
Okay...but effectively, the 12-16 seeds are the equivalent of rolling a 1 or 13 in craps. It never happens. And as I said earlier, you basically have the top-25 as your potential Championship tier. Because the number of permutations in craps are not equal, you need to break those 25 teams into 11 tiers (not 12, there are only 11 different numeric totals you can roll in craps).

7 - #1 team
6/8 - #2-3 teams
5/9 - #4-7 teams
4/10 - #8-13 teams
3/11 - #14-21 teams
2/12 - #22+ teams

Next are the combinations.

7 - 6 combinations
6/8 - 10 combinations
5/9 - 8 combinations
4/10 - 6 combinations
3/11 - 4 combinations
2/12 - 2 combinations

So comparing the permutations to the ratio, here's what we get expectation vs reality (considering that 21 tournaments for 11 outcomes is a very small sample size):

#1 - 14.3% actual vs 16.7% expected
#2-3 - 33.3% actual vs 27.8% expected
#4-7 - 38.1% actual vs 22.2% expected
#8-13 - 0.0% actual vs 16.7% expected
#14-21 - 9.5% actual vs 11.1% expected
#22+ - 4.8% actual vs 5.6% expected

The disparities for 4-13 are stark, but everything else is almost exact. In terms of crapshoot, with the idea that your actual contenders are the top 25 or so teams, with some margin for error given in the 2/12 roll range for the outliers like 2021 UCLA or 2023 Miami or the hypothetical 12-16 winning it all, it sure feels like crapshoot is a pretty accurate depiction. And this is factoring UConn in as the 2023 winners already, so the 4-7 number would come down while the 14-21 or 22+ range would go up if it's anyone but UConn.

But ultimately...it doesn't really matter. It's just a mathematically apropos statement to make.
What you’re doing here is weighting the dice in the NCAA tournament field to reflect the fact that better teams are much more likely to go far than worse teams. And worse teams have a virtual 0% chance to go far.

This would be equivalent to acknowledging the tournament not a crapshoot, but rather a large field with a very focused group that actually has a chance to win.

If the argument is that the tournament is a crapshoot ONLY amongst the top 20-25 teams - I would actually agree with that. But that’s not the argument people are making. People are saying the NCAA tournament, on the whole, is a crapshoot. Which is neither mathematically or logically true.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2023, 07:45:43 AM by 5DollarPitcher »

Uncle Rico

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 10202
    • Mazos Hamburgers
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #95 on: March 28, 2023, 07:45:56 AM »
As already stated in the previous thread, you're taking the definition of crapshoot too literally.

It’s a crapshoot
Ramsey head thoroughly up his ass.

Uncle Rico

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 10202
    • Mazos Hamburgers
Ramsey head thoroughly up his ass.

Uncle Rico

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 10202
    • Mazos Hamburgers
Ramsey head thoroughly up his ass.

Scoop Snoop

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2539
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #98 on: March 28, 2023, 07:57:53 AM »
I don't give a crap. Just enjoy the tourney.
Wild horses couldn't drag me into either political party, but for very different reasons.

"All of our answers are unencumbered by the thought process." NPR's Click and Clack of Car Talk.

Uncle Rico

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 10202
    • Mazos Hamburgers
Re: Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”
« Reply #99 on: March 28, 2023, 08:03:13 AM »
I don't give a crap. Just enjoy the tourney.

Precisely.  The charm of a single-elimination tournament is the volatility.  It sucks when that volatility hits your team. 

Personally, I’d prefer a Final 4 with the 4 best teams.  Upsets opening weekend are fine but I’d rather see UConn with Houston, Bama, Texas, UCLA, Creighton, Marquette or Kansas but March surprises abound like 2011
Ramsey head thoroughly up his ass.

 

feedback