We could’ve won this tournament

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Why? Tournament is a crapshoot crowd is just coping, it's clear.

Marquette had an incredible year but played badly when it mattered. We didn't lose because of luck or something random. We didn't lose because the tourney is a crapshoot.

If you don't think there's absolutely randomness in a lose and go home scenario I'm. It sure what to say.  Sure, over time the higher seeded teams are going to make the most appearances in the final 4 but this year is a perfect example of it being a crapshoot and that has nothing to do with trying to "cope".

Marquette lost because they didn't play well. They are a better team than MSU.

How many times does FDU beat Purdue if they play 50 times? 

All it takes is one bad night to lose to a team you would beat more often than not.

[5DollarPitcher]

If you don't think there's absolutely randomness in a lose and go home scenario I'm. It sure what to say.  Sure, over time the higher seeded teams are going to make the most appearances in the final 4 but this year is a perfect example of it being a crapshoot and that has nothing to do with trying to "cope".

Marquette lost because they didn't play well. They are a better team than MSU.

How many times does FDU beat Purdue if they play 50 times? 

All it takes is one bad night to lose to a team you would beat more often than not.

Every game of sports ever played throughout all of human history has some element of randomness to it. That does not make the entire tournament a crapshoot and it's ignorance to suggest otherwise.

[#UnleashSean]

Are you nuts?



Is the NFL playoffs a crapshoot because Eli Manning can beat Tom Brady? Is the NBA playoffs a crapshoot because the Warriors can lose with the best record of all time? Why even watch sports if it's all just a lucky crapshoot?

NFL playoffs? Yes

Nba Playoffs? No

Look a bit deeper guy.

[jesmu84]

Every game of sports ever played throughout all of human history has some element of randomness to it. That does not make the entire tournament a crapshoot and it's ignorance to suggest otherwise.

Do you not understand statistics/probabilities? Or just refuse to acknowledge them?

[5DollarPitcher]

Do you not understand statistics/probabilities? Or just refuse to acknowledge them?

Any tournament where the statistical favorite does not win outright is a "crapshoot"?

[5DollarPitcher]

NFL playoffs? Yes

Nba Playoffs? No

Look a bit deeper guy.

You are so unaware lol.

[5DollarPitcher]

Any tournament where the statistical favorite does not win outright is a "crapshoot"?

Also isn't there some stat out there where some super specific set of KenPom stats has predicted the National Champion of the last 20 tournaments? And you can basically narrow the field of potential champs to like 7 teams before the tourney even starts?

Creighton and UConn were on the good side of that stat while Marquette and Purdue were not.

Crapshoot, I guess.

[Farley36]

Farley: This team sucks, they are going to fade in February, you just watch!

Also Farley: This team is so awesome, Final Four is the floor!

Trolls gonna troll I guess

Scoop:  how dare you question this team and troll with your low expectations.  This team is a legit winner.

Also Scoop:  how dare you question this team with your high expectations.  They are young and winning is a crapshoot.  This team shouldn't be expected to win yet.

Scoopers gonna scoop.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Every game of sports ever played throughout all of human history has some element of randomness to it. That does not make the entire tournament a crapshoot and it's ignorance to suggest otherwise.

When it's single game elimination that makes a massive difference. So to compare the NBA or NHL playoffs to the tourney is, well, dumb.

[5DollarPitcher]

When it's single game elimination that makes a massive difference. So to compare the NBA or NHL playoffs to the tourney is, well, dumb.

Nobody here even mentioned the NHL playoffs.

The best regular season team loses regularly in the NBA playoffs.

Do you understand that or are you, well, dumb?

[jesmu84]

Any tournament where the statistical favorite does not win outright is a "crapshoot"?

No one calls MLB, NHL or NBA tournaments crapshoots.

People call the NCAA tournament a crapshoot because the probability that the "best" team will win is much lower when it's single elimination vs best of 3/5/7

[#UnleashSean]

Nobody here even mentioned the NHL playoffs.

The best regular season team loses regularly in the NBA playoffs.

Do you understand that or are you, well, dumb?

My man, you are so dense.

in a single game elimination there are a ton of factors of randomness that do not exist in a 7 game series.

[5DollarPitcher]

No one calls MLB, NHL or NBA tournaments crapshoots.

People call the NCAA tournament a crapshoot because the probability that the "best" team will win is much lower when it's single elimination vs best of 3/5/7

People call the NCAA tournament a crapshoot to cope when their team disappoints.

There are simply more teams in the NCAA tournament than the others you mentioned. A top 3 seeded team wins the tournament 90+% of the time.

If you lose - you weren't the best team.

[5DollarPitcher]

My man, you are so dense.

in a single game elimination there are a ton of factors of randomness that do not exist in a 7 game series.

I think this is what you're not comprehending.

Sports are, by definition, somewhat random. The best teams overcome the randomness and seize opportunity. That doesn't make the tournament a crapshoot.

A crapshoot is spinning a ball in a roulette wheel. The tournament is not that.

[jesmu84]

People call the NCAA tournament a crapshoot to cope when their team disappoints.

There are simply more teams in the NCAA tournament than the others you mentioned. A top 3 seeded team wins the tournament 90+% of the time.

If you lose - you weren't the best team.

1. So, whichever team wins the NCAA tournament is the best team that season?

2. If every matchup in the bracket played a best of 5 or 7, would the outcome be the same? Would the same team still win the whole tournament?

[5DollarPitcher]

1. So, whichever team wins the NCAA tournament is the best team that season?

2. If every matchup in the bracket played a best of 5 or 7, would the outcome be the same? Would the same team still win the whole tournament?

1. Definitionally, yes. Are you trying to imply that the very best team, statistically, needs to win the tournament 100% of the time in order for it to NOT be a crapshoot? That's what this line of questioning seems to imply.

2. I'd bet the same team would win the whole thing at the end, yes. Would FDU beat Purdue in a 7 game series? No. But Purdue wouldn't win this tournament, no matter the format. They weren't a good 1 seed.

[SaveOD238]

Also isn't there some stat out there where some super specific set of KenPom stats has predicted the National Champion of the last 20 tournaments? And you can basically narrow the field of potential champs to like 7 teams before the tourney even starts?

Creighton and UConn were on the good side of that stat while Marquette and Purdue were not.

Crapshoot, I guess.

Pretty sure it's "top 25 in offensive AND defensive efficiency"

If Creighton and Texas both win today all four Final Four teams will come from that group.  (Well, almost.  FAU is #29 in defense)

[5DollarPitcher]

Pretty sure it's "top 25 in offensive AND defensive efficiency"

If Creighton and Texas both win today all four Final Four teams will come from that group.  (Well, almost.  FAU is #29 in defense)

Thank you...

Even in the wildest year the tourney has had in more than a decade, the Final Four is not a crapshoot.

[jesmu84]

1. Definitionally, yes. Are you trying to imply that the very best team, statistically, needs to win the tournament 100% of the time in order for it to NOT be a crapshoot? That's what this line of questioning seems to imply.

2. I'd bet the same team would win the whole thing at the end, yes. Would FDU beat Purdue in a 7 game series? No. But Purdue wouldn't win this tournament, no matter the format. They weren't a good 1 seed.

1. No. Crapshoot isn't binary. It's a spectrum.

2. Before this tournament, who did you believe was the best team in the country?

[Uncle Rico]

The fact is that 1 seeds (teams that perform better throughout the year) go to the Final Four and win the National Championship at a much higher rate than any other seed. The same holds true for all top seeds.

83% of all Final Four participants, ever, have been a top 4 seed in their region.

62% of all Final Four participants have been a top 2 seed in their region.

90% of all National Champions have been a top 3 seed in their region.

65% of all National Champions have been a 1 seed.

Do you actually know the facts? Or are you still coping?

Coping over what?  The tournament is a crapshoot.  That's not coping.

[5DollarPitcher]

1. No. Crapshoot isn't binary. It's a spectrum.

2. Before this tournament, who did you believe was the best team in the country?

1. So now it's just kind of a crapshoot? That was easy. Defend your opinion.

2. It doesn't matter who I thought was the best team. That's why they play the games - to find out.

[5DollarPitcher]

Coping over what?  The tournament is a crapshoot.  That's not coping.

It makes it easier to cope with the disappointment if you tell yourself that it's all random anyway.

[Judge Smails]

The team that can win 6 games in a row against strong competition deserves the title of National Champion.

[Uncle Rico]

It makes it easier to cope with the disappointment if you tell yourself that it's all random anyway.

It is random. 

[jesmu84]

The team that can win 6 games in a row against strong competition deserves the title of National Champion.

Does the title of national champion also mean "best team in the country"?