[Cracked Sidewalks] Top-16 Reveal Preview

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Away wins >> Neutral win >> Home win plus Uconn Q3 loss @ home really hurts.

Virginia's best road win is at 65 Michigan.  They have beaten Baylor and Illinois on a neutral floor, but those are worse than UConn's neutral floor wins against Alabama and Iowa State.

UConn also has a better road win at 53 Florida.  UConn has better metrics across the board.  UConn has better wins than Virginia in all three environments (home, neutral, away.)

One Q3 loss should not drop UConn 7+ spots behind Virginia.  The NCAA is a clown show, per usual.

This is my last comment on seeding.  At this point, I'm expecting Marquette to drop to a 5 or 6 with no logical explanation.  F*ck 'em. Win anyway.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

This is my last comment on seeding.  At this point, I'm expecting Marquette to drop to a 5 or 6 with no logical explanation.  F*ck 'em. Win anyway.

This is my worry it feels like the committee has set the precedent that Marquette is one questionable loss from dropping to the 6 line

[tower912]

So don't have a questionable loss.

[willie warrior]

Virginia's best road win is at 65 Michigan.  They have beaten Baylor and Illinois on a neutral floor, but those are worse than UConn's neutral floor wins against Alabama and Iowa State.

UConn also has a better road win at 53 Florida.  UConn has better metrics across the board.  UConn has better wins than Virginia in all three environments (home, neutral, away.)

One Q3 loss should not drop UConn 7+ spots behind Virginia.  The NCAA is a clown show, per usual.

This is my last comment on seeding.  At this point, I'm expecting Marquette to drop to a 5 or 6 with no logical explanation.  F*ck 'em. Win anyway.

You are right. As Kolek would fondly say, "F#%k em"

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

So don't have a questionable loss.

Kansas State and Indiana have a few, and yet...

[Newsdreams]

Virginia's best road win is at 65 Michigan.  They have beaten Baylor and Illinois on a neutral floor, but those are worse than UConn's neutral floor wins against Alabama and Iowa State.

UConn also has a better road win at 53 Florida.  UConn has better metrics across the board.  UConn has better wins than Virginia in all three environments (home, neutral, away.)

One Q3 loss should not drop UConn 7+ spots behind Virginia.  The NCAA is a clown show, per usual.

This is my last comment on seeding.  At this point, I'm expecting Marquette to drop to a 5 or 6 with no logical explanation.  F*ck 'em. Win anyway.

They hate us

[tower912]

Do they have losses at home to Wisconsin or on a neutral floor to Mississippi State?

To be the best, you have to beat the best.  A 4/5 seed versus a 2/3 seed means you have to do it one round sooner.

[Newsdreams]

Kansas State and Indiana have a few, and yet...

Which ones? No Q3 or Q4 away or at home. So, for seeding no major questionable losses.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Which ones? No Q3 or Q4 away or at home. So, for seeding no major questionable losses.

Butler flies off the page for one thing

[MU82]

I am looking forward to seeing us zoom up to the 3 line after our great road win Tuesday night!

[DoctorV]

Here is a quick summary of the Quad 1 true road wins for MU and the 12 teams I am following as their main competition for the 10-20 spots on the NCAA Seed List.

Marquette: Seton Hall (NET 69), 1-4 overall
Virginia: Miami (31) Michigan (65), Wake Forest (67) 3-2 (also beat Baylor on a neutral court)
Iowa State: TCU (22), Oklahoma (63), 2-7
Kansas State: Texas (9), Baylor (12) 2-5
Indiana: Xavier (26), Illinois (27), Michigan (65) 3-6
Gonzaga: 0-2 (Neutral wins over Alabama, Xavier, and MSU)
Xavier:UConn (8) 1-2
Connecticut: 0-5 (Neutral wins over Alabama and Iowa State)
Miami: North Carolina (44), UCF (56) 2-3
Creighton: Seton Hall (69) 1-5
St. Mary's: None (Will be at Gonzaga this weekend) Best at Santa Clara (83)
TCU: Kansas(6), Baylor (12) 2-6
San Diego State: Utah State (35), 1-1

Especially in the case of Kansas State, those 2 top 10 road wins seem to be what is carrying their seeding. Their overall metrics are not that impressive: NET of 20 and RAP score of 22.8 (compared to 14 and 15.4 for MU). Also, the Selection Committee often says that it rewards teams that "put themselves out there" in OOC games, but KSU doesn't help itself there with an OOC schedule strength rated at 301. MU is at 140, which is worse than average for this set of teams

So, in this case, the Big East is essentially penalized because their elite teams are holding down their home turf and not losing

The Big Twelve benefits because their elite teams aren't holding down their home turf

I mean I get it. At the end of the day you can nitpick any of the metrics or sets of data, in this case "big" road wins, and use that as an argument to benefit one conference over the next in seeding. If you deem that the B12 is the best conference in America, which it is, and want to stuff the top 4 seed lines with B12 teams you will do just that, and then pick the data point that suits you to make your argument.

Most consider the BE as one of the top 3/4 conferences in America, but it seems like this years committee sees it more as a collection of 4/5 seeds at the top.

I still think that if Marquette wins the Big East and gets the 1 seed they will fall on the 3 line, so that's the current goal for multiple reasons.
If they don't, they will fall on the 4/5 line barring a complete meltdown.

[GoldenEagles03]

Joe Lunardi moved Gonzaga ahead of Marquette for beating Pepperdine last night.

17-9 Iowa State remained on his 3 line.

[mugrad_89]

Joe Lunardi moved Gonzaga ahead of Marquette for beating Pepperdine last night.

17-9 Iowa State remained on his 3 line.

Getting rewarded for beating the last place team in the WCC is a bit ridiculous.

[Newsdreams]

Butler flies off the page for one thing

Butler away is a Q2 loss for now, so no. It will be a problem if it becomes Q3, but they have plenty of chances for more Q1 wins unlike MU. We need to win @ Creighton to have a good chance to improve our seeding.

[MU82]

We don't have to like it ... but if Marquette had won even one of at Prov, at X, at Purdue, home vs Madison or neutral vs Miss State, we'd probably have been a 3 in the reveal -- and certainly if we had won any of those three road games.

It's not as if all of this was completely out of our team's control. And now our guys get to have a say in things again Tuesday.

[Newsdreams]

So, in this case, the Big East is essentially penalized because their elite teams are holding down their home turf and not losing

The Big Twelve benefits because their elite teams aren't holding down their home turf

I mean I get it. At the end of the day you can nitpick any of the metrics or sets of data, in this case "big" road wins, and use that as an argument to benefit one conference over the next in seeding. If you deem that the B12 is the best conference in America, which it is, and want to stuff the top 4 seed lines with B12 teams you will do just that, and then pick the data point that suits you to make your argument.

Most consider the BE as one of the top 3/4 conferences in America, but it seems like this years committee sees it more as a collection of 4/5 seeds at the top.

I still think that if Marquette wins the Big East and gets the 1 seed they will fall on the 3 line, so that's the current goal for multiple reasons.
If they don't, they will fall on the 4/5 line barring a complete meltdown.

Also will depend on what those seeded ahead or close behind us do. But MU needs to win out rest of regular BE season to make a statement for better seeding.

[DoctorV]

Also will depend on what those seeded ahead or close behind us do. But MU needs to win out rest of regular BE season to make a statement for better seeding.

If Marquette wins out it won't matter, that would be a 3 seed.

If Marquette loses at Creighton and still wins the BE outright, doesn't bow out of the Garden early I still think they get a 3 seed.

Those teams on the 3 line will lose games, and at the end of the day the committee will likely have the best BE team on the 3 line, especially if it is Marquette who is their highest rated BE team to this point

[Newsdreams]

If Marquette wins out it won't matter, that would be a 3 seed.

If Marquette loses at Creighton and still wins the BE outright, doesn't bow out of the Garden early I still think they get a 3 seed.

Those teams on the 3 line will lose games, and at the end of the day the committee will likely have the best BE team on the 3 line, especially if it is Marquette who is their highest rated BE team to this point

You're assuming they will all lose games, but they also have much better opportunities than MU to improve their resume. Bottom line MU needs to win and do their part.

[MuMark]

https://twitter.com/grahamdoeren/status/1627368129079742465?s=61&t=d1qGuZ08XMZZUIv9juv18A

[GoFastAndWin]

Reveal Shmiveal. As others note, you have to beat great teams sooner or later to win in March. Let's be that team nobody wants to face, whatever the number next to us.

On to more pertinent things, like winning outright the BIG F'n EAST reg season!!

[wisblue]

Maybe it would be better if the NCAA just seeded teams purely on the basis of the NET. If they see teams whose NET seems to be out of whack, they can try to see why the formula they use produces that result and tinker with the formula for the next year. If nothing else that would save a lot of manpower in trying to going through resumes and arguing over whose resume is better.

MU's NET is 14, and most of their metrics are in the neighborhood (RAP score of 15.4) so I find it hard to get too worked up about being 14 on the NCAA seed list.

If we're trying to make a case for bias against the Big East, I think Xavier's placement refutes that. They have an NET of 26 and RAP score of 19.2 but were placed up to 16. Their sweep of UConn and 11 total Q 1 and Q2 wins clearly carried more weight than their ugly loss to DePaul.

In the case of UConn, I think they reached the point where the number of losses in conference play makes it hard to place them above several conference teams that have beaten them and have better conference records.

[Jockey]

They hate us

They're in cahoots with the announcers and ESPN.

[Shooter McGavin]

We don't have to like it ... but if Marquette had won even one of at Prov, at X, at Purdue, home vs Madison or neutral vs Miss State, we'd probably have been a 3 in the reveal -- and certainly if we had won any of those three road games.

It's not as if all of this was completely out of our team's control. And now our guys get to have a say in things again Tuesday.

That's exactly right.  It is what it is.  Win Tuesday and get another quad 1 victory in the Big East tournament and MU will grab a 3 seed.  MU should not complain if they don't get it done. 

[JakeBarnes]

Getting rewarded for beating the last place team in the WCC is a bit ridiculous.

And barely beating them. Was a one possession game with 2 mins left.

[Ardmore Mug]

As I always say, Just WIN Baaaby ! ! ! Winning cures Everything ! ! !  Makes Rankings better, Makes Attendance Better, Makes Marketing better ! ! !