MU's NCAA Destination

[wisblue]

Now that MU is safely in the "Lock" category for the NCAA, it isn't too early to start thinking about where MU might be headed for the first weekend of the tournament, especially for anyone who might want to attend.

Selfishly, my hope is for MU to land in Orlando because I will be in the area that weekend and would be able to attend any games there.

Without getting into too much detail, if you start looking at the teams that are in line to claim the top 10-12 spots on the NCAA seed list, and where they would probably be assigned, it looks like most are all of the spots for seeded teams in Columbus, Birmingham, Des Moines, Denver, Sacramento, and Greensboro will be claimed by those teams.

It also looks like there is a good chance that MU will end up with a 4 or 5 seed, with a chance to move up to 3 if they finish strong or drop to 6 if they lose more than 2 of their remaining 5 regular season games.

Recognizing that there are still a lot of games to be played, it is looking like MU's most likely destination is either Albany or Orlando. It is possible that all of the 4 and 5 seeds will be playing in those two locations.

At this point, most of the leading Bracketologists that attempt to create a full bracket following NCAA seeding and placement principles have MU as a 4 seed and place them in either Orlando or Albany. Lunardi is a bit of an outlier with MU as a 3 seed playing in Columbus.

This picture will get somewhat clearer after MU's next two games.

[CountryRoads]

MU usually gets screwed with location so I'm predicating they will be playing far away in the other team's backyard.

[HowardsWorld]

I will be in Pompano Beach, FL the week of march madness but I do not expect MU to be there. If they are a 3 seed or better they are going to Columbus more likely than not. Orlando would be if they are a 4-5 seed imo. Would be awesome to get a 3 seed and play there I would make the 3 hours drive on Thursday and Saturday.

[MU_B]

As a Florida resident, selfishly I'd like to have them land in Orlando.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Kansas will be in Des Moines.  Second protected seed contenders are Iowa State, Kansas State, Marquette, and maybe Crieghton if they finish strong.

Purdue will be in Columbus.  Second protected seed contenders are Xavier, Marquette, and Indiana.

Albany and Orlando are the other likely destinations for Marquette.

[wisblue]

MU usually gets screwed with location so I'm predicating they will be playing far away in the other team's backyard.

Not sure if this is meant to be sarcastic, but MU's NCAA appearances have been few and far between over the last decade and I don't think they have been screwed considering their seeding.

If MU gets a 4 or 5 seed, they will have to be placed in a pod with a 4 or 5 seed, and that location would be dictated by where the higher seeds are placed. MU would have to fall pretty far to land in Sacramento, Birmingham, or Denver, as those spots are likely to be claimed by higher seeded teams.

For example:
Birmingham- Alabama and Houston
Sacramento- UCLA and Arizona
Denver-Texas and Baylor

Other potential landing spots for top teams:

Des Moines- Kansas and another Big 12 team (Baylor or Kansas State)
Greensboro- Tennessee and Virginia
Columbus- Purdue

So, by the time you place the top 11 teams in the current bracket matrix ratings in their most favorable available locations, all that's left for the 12-20 teams is one spot in Columbus and the eight spots in Albany and Orlando.

That's how I conclude that, as things stand now, Albany and Orlando are MU's most likely destinations unless they make a significant move up or down the S curve.

When MU had 3 seeds in 2012 and 2013 they were placed in Louisville and Lexington. Hard to complain about that.

[Galway Eagle]

When MU had 3 seeds in 2012 and 2013 they were placed in Louisville and Lexington. Hard to complain about that.

Except for the fact that we had to play Murray state...

[CountryRoads]

Not sure if this is meant to be sarcastic, but MU's NCAA appearances have been few and far between over the last decade and I don't think they have been screwed considering their seeding.

If MU gets a 4 or 5 seed, they will have to be placed in a pod with a 4 or 5 seed, and that location would be dictated by where the higher seeds are placed. MU would have to fall pretty far to land in Sacramento, Birmingham, or Denver, as those spots are likely to be claimed by higher seeded teams.

For example:
Birmingham- Alabama and Houston
Sacramento- UCLA and Arizona
Denver-Texas and Baylor

Other potential landing spots for top teams:

Des Moines- Kansas and another Big 12 team (Baylor or Kansas State)
Greensboro- Tennessee and Virginia
Columbus- Purdue

So, by the time you place the top 11 teams in the current bracket matrix ratings in their most favorable available locations, all that's left for the 12-20 teams is one spot in Columbus and the eight spots in Albany and Orlando.

That's how I conclude that, as things stand now, Albany and Orlando are MU's most likely destinations unless they make a significant move up or down the S curve.

When MU had 3 seeds in 2012 and 2013 they were placed in Louisville and Lexington. Hard to complain about that.

Somewhat sarcastic. Though, I thought these were all pretty rough draws:

'09 in Boise (Utah State)
'10 in San Jose (Washington)
'12 in Louisville (Murray State)
'17 in Greenville SC (South Carolina)

[SaveOD238]

If Albany and Orlando are the likeliest locations, what other 3-6 seed teams could we face there?

If we're a 4 in Orlando but draw Miami as the 5, I won't be too happy.  But the rest of the southeast is meh.

If we're Albany, at least we won't be matched up with the local schools in that relative area (Uconn, Providence, X) because they are in our conference.  Facing Pitt or Rutgers in Albany would suck, I guess.

[MU82]

That a 7 seed (South Carolina) essentially had home games in 2017 was borderline criminal.

[brewcity77]

All depends on seed. If Marquette is a 3, decent chance they get to Columbus. If they're a four, it's either Albany (13/14 on the S-Curve) or Orlando (15/16).

[wisblue]

If Albany and Orlando are the likeliest locations, what other 3-6 seed teams could we face there?

If we're a 4 in Orlando but draw Miami as the 5, I won't be too happy.  But the rest of the southeast is meh.

If we're Albany, at least we won't be matched up with the local schools in that relative area (Uconn, Providence, X) because they are in our conference.  Facing Pitt or Rutgers in Albany would suck, I guess.

The fact that the southeast is meh is why there aren't high rated teams likely to land in Orlando.

For possible pod mates just look at other teams currently rated around 10-25. Miami is the one that would be closest geographically, but at least that would be a second round game.

Some of the other teams that the Bracketologists currently place in Orlando and Albany (not counting other Big East teams) include Iowa State, TCU, St. Mary's and Indiana.

[withoutbias]

The NCAA hates us too.  So we'll play Ohio State in Columbus when they win the B1G Tourney.

[fjm]

The fact that the southeast is meh is why there aren't high rated teams likely to land in Orlando.

For possible pod mates just look at other teams currently rated around 10-25. Miami is the one that would be closest geographically, but at least that would be a second round game.

Some of the other teams that the Bracketologists currently place in Orlando and Albany (not counting other Big East teams) include Iowa State, TCU, St. Mary's and Indiana.

Orlando vs st Mary's in the second round yes please. As far away from home as possible.

[wisblue]

That a 7 seed (South Carolina) essentially had home games in 2017 was borderline criminal.

I don't agree with that.

It would have been unfair if the number 2 seed came from far away, but the 2 seed was Duke playing at its nearest location, and its fans bought up a lot of tickets there in anticipation of their heroes playing there.

For a 10 seed like Marquette that was flirting with a First Four game they can't complain much about location.

Borderline criminal might describe Pitt as a 3 seed having to play 6 seed Wisconsin at the BC in 2004 (?).I think that abomination might have been an impetus for the NCAA to add to its standards a desire to avoid putting seeded teams at a home court disadvantage. 10 seeds get no such protection.

I was at the MU-Murray State game in Louisville in 2012 and that game did put MU at a significant home crowd disadvantage, largely because all of the Kentucky fans in attendance rooted for Murray State.

[wisblue]

All depends on seed. If Marquette is a 3, decent chance they get to Columbus. If they're a four, it's either Albany (13/14 on the S-Curve) or Orlando (15/16).

That really was my original point.

I just think that MU ending up as a 4 or 5 seed is a lot more likely than a 3. They might have to beat both Xavier and Creighton, or make the BET final, to earn a 3 seed.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

That really was my original point.

I just think that MU ending up as a 4 or 5 seed is a lot more likely than a 3. They might have to beat both Xavier and Creighton, or make the BET final, to earn a 3 seed.

I dunno, it's not like anyone in that range is really sticking out. A lot of losses in that 5-16 range.

Bracket matrix currently has MU as the top 4 seed.

[mubb3434]

All depends on seed. If Marquette is a 3, decent chance they get to Columbus. If they're a four, it's either Albany (13/14 on the S-Curve) or Orlando (15/16).

Columbus or Orlando would get a pretty good draw from MU fans IMO.

[wisblue]

I dunno, it's not like anyone in that range is really sticking out. A lot of losses in that 5-16 range.

Bracket matrix currently has MU as the top 4 seed.

MU is currently 15 in the NET.

There are a lot of losses in the 5-16 teams, but MU is light on the Q1 and Q2 wins compared to a number of them. They don't have any real strong road wins. Beating Xavier and Creighton would be a big boost.

[MU82]

I don't agree with that.

We'll agree to disagree about South Carolina getting home games in the NCAA tournament.

We'll agree about Murray State. Thankfully, MU pulled that one out.

[wisblue]

My main point is that putting South Carolina in Greenville in 2017 is consistent with the NCAA principles for placing teams in the bracket. They try to place teams close to their natural location if possible, but try to avoid putting the top 4 seeds at a home crowd disadvantage in the first round.

[Dr. Blackheart]

My main point is that putting South Carolina in Greenville in 2017 is consistent with the NCAA principles for placing teams in the bracket. They try to place teams close to their natural location if possible, but try to avoid putting the top 4 seeds at a home crowd disadvantage in the first round.

South Carolina was a 7 seed that year.  The game was moved to Greenville due to political reasons.

[wisblue]

South Carolina was a 7 seed that year.  The game was moved to Greenville due to political reasons.

I forgot about the NCAA moving games out of North Carolina that year.

Still, the principle of trying to place teams in their geographic area if possible applies to everyone, not just the top seeds. So having South Carolina play in Greenville (or Greensboro, NC) as a 7 seed is consistent with that principle.

[MU82]

South Carolina was a 7 seed that year.  The game was moved to Greenville due to political reasons.

Yes, but it was moved in plenty of time to avoid giving the 7 seed home-court advantage. The committee even managed to give South Carolina home-court advantage over Duke in the next round.

[wisblue]

Yes, but it was moved in plenty of time to avoid giving the 7 seed home-court advantage. The committee even managed to give South Carolina home-court advantage over Duke in the next round.

It is not the goal of the selection committee to move teams far from their campus locations. In fact, the stated goal is just the opposite. Specifically:

"Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible, as determined by mileage from campus to the venue. A team placed out of its natural area will be placed in the next closest region to the extent possible."

Putting every team close to home is obviously impossible when you take into account seeding, avoiding early round conference matchups, and other factors.

I looked back at the 2017 bracket and saw that North Carolina (a 1 seed) and Duke (a 2) were both placed in pods in Greenville, which is about 250 miles from their campuses, but obviously not as close as Greensboro.

As high rated teams expecting high seeds before the season started I'm sure Duke and NC fans snapped up as many tickets as they could get at that location.

As the building of the bracket got down to SC as a 7 seed, there was a spot for them in Greenville (just 100 miles from their campus) so it was consistent with NCAA principles to put them there. Your disagreement with that placement seems to be a disagreement with the principle, not the decision made by that selection committee.

The team chosen to face South Carolina was probably going to be subject to a home crowd (not court) disadvantage, but no more of one than the teams facing Duke and North Carolina.

If South Carolina had a home crowd advantage against Duke, it probably came as much from NC fans rooting against Duke as SC fans rooting for their own team.

MU got trounced in 2017 by a stronger, more physical veteran team that was good enough to advance to the Final Four, not because they faced a home crowd disadvantage.