Next 5 Games 2/15-3/4 (Final Edition)

[HowardsWorld]

Wed, Feb 15 vs Xavier
Tue, Feb 21 @ Creighton
Sat, Feb 25 vs DePaul
Tue, Feb 28 @Butler
Sat, Mar 4   vs St. John's

Final 5 game set of conference play, and certainly the most important. The next two games will more or less dictate how the season as a whole is viewed whether or not it's a successful season to this point. I'm going 4-1 to remain consistent with how they have done all year in the first 3 set of 5 games. I believe Marquette will kill Xavier much like Baylor. A close loss to Creighton and win the remaining 3 games. Winning 4 of the final 5 will put us in contention to win a share of the Big East. Winning out will guarantee an outright title. I don't see Creighton losing to anyone the rest of the way if they beat us, which would give them the Big East Crown.

[Newsdreams]

Wed, Feb 15 vs Xavier
Tue, Feb 21 @ Creighton
Sat, Feb 25 vs DePaul
Tue, Feb 28 @Butler
Sat, Mar 4   vs St. John's

Final 5 game set of conference play, and certainly the most important. The next two games will more or less dictate how the season as a whole is viewed whether or not it's a successful season to this point. I'm going 4-1 to remain consistent with how they have done all year in the first 3 set of 5 games. I believe Marquette will kill Xavier much like Baylor. A close loss to Creighton and win the remaining 3 games. Winning 4 of the final 5 will put us in contention to win a share of the Big East. Winning out will guarantee an outright title. I don't see Creighton losing to anyone the rest of the way if they beat us, which would give them the Big East Crown.

1-5 is an interesting choice

[MU82]

Wed, Feb 15 vs Xavier
Tue, Feb 21 @ Creighton
Sat, Feb 25 vs DePaul
Tue, Feb 28 @Butler
Sat, Mar 4   vs St. John's

Final 5 game set of conference play, and certainly the most important. The next two games will more or less dictate how the season as a whole is viewed whether or not it's a successful season to this point. I'm going 4-1 to remain consistent with how they have done all year in the first 3 set of 5 games. I believe Marquette will kill Xavier much like Baylor. A close loss to Creighton and win the remaining 3 games. Winning 4 of the final 5 will put us in contention to win a share of the Big East. Winning out will guarantee an outright title. I don't see Creighton losing to anyone the rest of the way if they beat us, which would give them the Big East Crown.

Creighton has a very tough game to play before they meet us.

And why is this the final "Next 5 games"? You should do another after we win our NCAA tournament opener!

[Scoop Snoop]

I surprised myself by going with 5-0. I think we take Creighton down. Just do not ask me to explain that, OK?.

One scary thought is Butler at Hinkle being an unwelcome surprise for Marquette. They, or more accurately Bates, nailed Xavier.

Still good with my 5-0 though.

[mileskishnish72]

I like that one of the choices for the next five games is 1-5 and it got votes. Not from any math majors, I presume.

[rocket surgeon]

1-5 is an interesting choice

probably that farley dude trying to cheer himself up since his masked rats are leaking oil

[Goose]

I say 4-1 without a decent chance of 5-0. Truthfully, I would take 4-1 and see the big boys get extra rest over going 5-0. I am far less interested in the next five game success and very interested in success in mid March and beyond.

[bilsu]

I voted 4-1. 3-2 is more likely than 5-0.

[Judge Smails]

I voted 3-2. I think we'll lose a game we are supposed to win. Scoop will go into huge meltdown mode. But I think we'll perform well come tourney time.

[PointWarrior]

1-5 is an interesting choice

NoLonger voted three times

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

No 0-5 option. Clearly a biased poll

[muwarrior69]

I say 4-1 without a decent chance of 5-0. Truthfully, I would take 4-1 and see the big boys get extra rest over going 5-0. I am far less interested in the next five game success and very interested in success in mid March and beyond.

Hear! Hear!

[1SE]

These next two are the most important two game stretch of the season.

I'm sure Brew's crunched the numbers, but my layman's hunch is win both and our floor is a 4 with a very good chance at a 3 (or even a two if we cut down the nets in NYC?)

Lose both and it would seem our ceiling is most likely a 5.

Split and it seems we're still on track for a 4 but of course we can't have any slip-ups then in the last three.

But TRULY the most important game of the season is the next one.

[94Warrior]

The 2 games that concern me most are obviously X at home and Creighton on the road.
If we go 2-0 in those games, I believe we win the Big East outright, 1-1 we share it, and 0-2 we don't get a piece. 

Cheer for Providence to knock off Creighton tonight and us to roll X on Wed.  Let's GO!

[brewcity77]

These next two are the most important two game stretch of the season.

I'm sure Brew's crunched the numbers, but my layman's hunch is win both and our floor is a 4 with a very good chance at a 3 (or even a two if we cut down the nets in NYC?)

Lose both and it would seem our ceiling is most likely a 5.

Split and it seems we're still on track for a 4 but of course we can't have any slip-ups then in the last three.

But TRULY the most important game of the season is the next one.

If we win the next two, barring an unexpected collapse, I think we sneak up to the 3 line. Lose both and we probably end up as a 5 (maybe even still a 4) if we get the three after. At this point, a total collapse (0-5 or 1-4) probably puts us in the 7-9 range. 3-2 or better and we're no worse than a 5.

I don't put much stock in postseason tournaments. If we cut nets at MSG along with an outright title, maybe we get to a 2-seed, but my guess is wherever our seed is when we come into the BET will be where it is when we leave, whether we lose in our first MSG game or cut nets on Saturday.

[PGsHeroes32]

If we win the next two, barring an unexpected collapse, I think we sneak up to the 3 line. Lose both and we probably end up as a 5 (maybe even still a 4) if we get the three after. At this point, a total collapse (0-5 or 1-4) probably puts us in the 7-9 range. 3-2 or better and we're no worse than a 5.

I don't put much stock in postseason tournaments. If we cut nets at MSG along with an outright title, maybe we get to a 2-seed, but my guess is wherever our seed is when we come into the BET will be where it is when we leave, whether we lose in our first MSG game or cut nets on Saturday.

I think an outright BE title of 16-4 or better with winning the BET is possible for a 2 if the BET match ups are like the best possible match ups. Would have to beat two of X/Uconn/Creighton.

[Scoop Snoop]

If we win the next two, barring an unexpected collapse, I think we sneak up to the 3 line. Lose both and we probably end up as a 5 (maybe even still a 4) if we get the three after. At this point, a total collapse (0-5 or 1-4) probably puts us in the 7-9 range. 3-2 or better and we're no worse than a 5.

I don't put much stock in postseason tournaments. If we cut nets at MSG along with an outright title, maybe we get to a 2-seed, but my guess is wherever our seed is when we come into the BET will be where it is when we leave, whether we lose in our first MSG game or cut nets on Saturday.

This dovetails with much of what I have read and learned in recent years- the conference tourney results are not as high on the Selection Committee's mind as they may be on ours.

[SaveOD238]

A couple things in our favor as the season wraps up:

We only have 5 games remaining, but our top-of-conference foes have 6.  So there's more rest and time to prepare.

Of our 5 remaining games, only two are on the road (@Creighton and @Butler), while Xavier has 3 of 6 (@Marq, @ SH, @Prov) and Creighton has FOUR of 6 (@Prov, @StJ, @Nova, @DePaul).  Providence only has 2 remaining road games as well, @UConn and @Georgetown, but they have a tough home slate (Creighton, Nova, Xaver, SH) and are trailing by 1.5 games already.

[MU82]

A couple things in our favor as the season wraps up:

We only have 5 games remaining, but our top-of-conference foes have 6.  So there's more rest and time to prepare.

Of our 5 remaining games, only two are on the road (@Creighton and @Butler), while Xavier has 3 of 6 (@Marq, @ SH, @Prov) and Creighton has FOUR of 6 (@Prov, @StJ, @Nova, @DePaul).  Providence only has 2 remaining road games as well, @UConn and @Georgetown, but they have a tough home slate (Creighton, Nova, Xaver, SH) and are trailing by 1.5 games already.

The 2 that will determine the conference title are tonight's Creighton-Providence game and tomorrow's Marquette-Xavier game. If both of those go our favor, we will get at least a share of the championship -- and probably the outright title, because I see X losing at Providence and Providence losing at UConn. All just my opinion, of course.

[bilsu]

The way I see it.
Providence is going to finish fourth.
The loser of the Xavier/MU game finishes third.
The winner of the Creighton/MU game finishes first. Of course, I am assuming MU beats Xavier.

[brewcity77]

What's interesting about Marquette and Creighton is they currently have the exact same losses. Both lost at Providence, UConn, and Xavier. Creighton has one more loss because they lost here. If Creighton wins out and Marquette wins every game except Creighton, per Big East rules, the 1-seed at MSG would come down to a coin flip.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/4086343/Big_East_tiebreaker-procedure.pdf

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What's interesting about Marquette and Xavier is they currently have the exact same losses. Both lost at Providence, UConn, and Xavier. Creighton has one more loss because they lost here. If Creighton wins out and Marquette wins every game except Creighton, per Big East rules, the 1-seed at MSG would come down to a coin flip.

http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/4086343/Big_East_tiebreaker-procedure.pdf

That must have been a helluva game

[brewcity77]

Dammit 

[Scoop Snoop]

That must have been a helluva game

Classic example of beating yourself.

[BallBoy]

The 2 that will determine the conference title are tonight's Creighton-Providence game and tomorrow's Marquette-Xavier game. If both of those go our favor, we will get at least a share of the championship -- and probably the outright title, because I see X losing at Providence and Providence losing at UConn. All just my opinion, of course.

The two games that will determine the Big East Champion are MU-Xavier and MU-Creighton. The Providence-Creighton game just gave us some margin of error.  If we win both games we win the Big East regardless of how the Providence - Creighton game ended so it couldn't determine the Big East champion. if we win both it is likely we could lose one against the bottom three and still win outright. If we lose both, Creighton would win the BE regardless of Providence game outcome.

In order for MU to win the title outright they need to win both games and hold serve. Go 1-1 and we would be either tied with Creighton and Providence or 1 behind X and needing some help. 

I think providence and x both lose 1 more after our game with X. I think Creighton doesn't lose again after MU game so if MU goes 4-1 we end up tied for the title with whoever beat us.