Seashells and Balloons

[jesmu84]

I have myriad opinions on offshoring that have crystallized even further in the last 18-24 months, but that’s a topic to another thread.

You point out an interesting nuance to the China military discussion, which is finances, and I think the HUGE unknown in all of this. I don’t think anyone in the West truly knows what sort of financial state China is in.  For all their great advances forward, they got way over their skis in many regards and the depth to which that is affecting them negatively is so hard to gauge due to their lack of transparency and false reporting.

Their military is concern due to sheer size.  They have very good tech, I imagine a good aerial attack, and many MANY bodies to throw forward.  But can they afford to do anything of note? That is a big unknown that very few people truly can speak to, especially not any civilian

I’m REALLY curious to speak to some of my Chinese associates in the coming year, face to face where they are more open, and see how they really felt about everything COVID related.  Cause that’s an interesting stress test for a populous gobbling up what is spoon fed by the CCP as it would pertain to something like sizable military action.

Would you mind expanding?

[4everwarriors]

Show your work, hey?

[JWags85]

Be good to have you follow up on this after talking to your contacts.

Absolutely

Would you mind expanding?

I’ll put together a bigger post in the COVID Economy thread, but it’s beyond the “find factories to do work for super cheap” mentality of the last few decades.  I’ve understood it, but after doing contract manufacturing in China and India and few other countries, and speaking to my friends who did similar in Mexico, Vietnam, and Turkey, I’d much prefer domestic if ANYWHERE close (within even 20-25% of cost) for a bunch of reasons.

But for skilled white collar office work, the dynamic has changed completely.  It’s an unintended consequence of a strong push for remote and WFH situations.  And it’s not penny pinching, it’s cost efficiency.  If they won’t be in the office and zooming in anyways, why pay the price premium for domestic? 

In 20 plus years of business, we never outsourced and offshored anything, other than local techs and customer service at foreign offices.  But we have a software engineer retiring.  She’s been mostly remote since just before COVID and fully remote for the last 2 years.  Replacing her, for about 60% of the price of a 20-30 hour US contractor, much less a full time employee, we can get someone with her same skill set, speaking great English, and have room to incentivize/“promote”/bonus going forward and still improve the fixed cost of that role.

 We actually got connected to a talent pool and the process through a partner company in the EU who completely reshaped their software development and database teams this way, saved a bunch of money while growing their team by 25-30%, improving a bunch of delivery and customer satisfaction metrics, and diversified their employee pool from various spots in Asia and Latin America, bringing extra perspective to a company with a global customer base

[muwarrior69]

jesmu

I definitely believe they are a major threat and became one when we surrendered our supply chain to China. We can go back 25 years and say every administration and corporate America ignored the threat.

I believe that the USA, both parties, either ignored or miscalculated the emergence of China. I have been a zealot on this topic for a very long time.

I can remember the argument for allowing them into the WTO that they would become more like us, more democratic. Actually I think we have become more like them. Congress passed a quarter trillion dollar bill so we can manufacture computer chips here. Once that money runs out will we still be able to manufacture computer chips at a profit here or will we have to establish a state run computer industry. 

[Hards Alumni]

I can remember the argument for allowing them into the WTO that they would become more like us, more democratic. Actually I think we have become more like them. Congress passed a quarter trillion dollar bill so we can manufacture computer chips here. Once that money runs out will we still be able to manufacture computer chips at a profit here or will we have to establish a state run computer industry.

I rarely agree with what you say, but I agree here. 

Further, a quarter trillion dollars isn't enough.  We will end up manufacturing the chips that we can produce here, but Taiwan has cornered the market on the high end stuff.  And we need it.  For national security reasons.  I don't have a solution, and the island of Taiwan itself is of massive geopolitical importance even without the chip manufacturing.

Absolutely

I’ll put together a bigger post in the COVID Economy thread, but it’s beyond the “find factories to do work for super cheap” mentality of the last few decades.  I’ve understood it, but after doing contract manufacturing in China and India and few other countries, and speaking to my friends who did similar in Mexico, Vietnam, and Turkey, I’d much prefer domestic if ANYWHERE close (within even 20-25% of cost) for a bunch of reasons.

But for skilled white collar office work, the dynamic has changed completely.  It’s an unintended consequence of a strong push for remote and WFH situations.  And it’s not penny pinching, it’s cost efficiency.  If they won’t be in the office and zooming in anyways, why pay the price premium for domestic? 

In 20 plus years of business, we never outsourced and offshored anything, other than local techs and customer service at foreign offices.  But we have a software engineer retiring.  She’s been mostly remote since just before COVID and fully remote for the last 2 years.  Replacing her, for about 60% of the price of a 20-30 hour US contractor, much less a full time employee, we can get someone with her same skill set, speaking great English, and have room to incentivize/“promote”/bonus going forward and still improve the fixed cost of that role.

 We actually got connected to a talent pool and the process through a partner company in the EU who completely reshaped their software development and database teams this way, saved a bunch of money while growing their team by 25-30%, improving a bunch of delivery and customer satisfaction metrics, and diversified their employee pool from various spots in Asia and Latin America, bringing extra perspective to a company with a global customer base

Yep, this is correct.  And since we have no strong labor unions, capital will continue to move production and now service overseas.  There is no counterbalance for what the market has decided.  The battle is one sided and essentially over in the US.

[tower912]

I think that computer industry infusion is critical.   It has to be viewed as infrastructure.    Supply chain issues with computer chips have hamstrung the auto industry.    Also, with all of the weapons we have sold to Ukraine, the US need to be able to produce chips for the military.     Imagine, for a moment, that China decides that US support for Ukraine means that they will enact a trade embargo with the US, specifically on computer chips.     
    So, I understand your argument strictly from a free market perspective.    I think in the modern era, it can be argued that a country being able to produce their own computer chips falls under national security.   

[tower912]

.... defense officials said that three such balloons entered American airspace three times during the Trump administration and once earlier in the Biden administration...





Yup, next time, going outside, flipping it off and mooning it.

[jesmu84]

Thanks wags

[jesmu84]

Yep, this is correct.  And since we have no strong labor unions, capital will continue to move production and now service overseas.  There is no counterbalance for what the market has decided.  The battle is one sided and essentially over in the US.

What do you think this mean long-term for the US economy and for US workers?

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

.... defense officials said that three such balloons entered American airspace three times during the Trump administration and once earlier in the Biden administration...





Yup, next time, going outside, flipping it off and mooning it.

I mean if we didn’t have a short memory you could point out the weird drone incidents during the trump years that we never got answers on. But folks are looking for any reason to raise their hackles. Just the way things are now. Trump could sneeze and a couple people here would have an aneurism and Biden could pause and others would call him DOA.

That being said, the balloon is a non issue and would have been shot down well before our airspace if it posed a true threat. NORAD saluted you.

[Jockey]

The Americans were able to collect intelligence on the balloon as it flew over the U.S., giving them a number of days to analyze it and learn how it moved and what it was capable of surveilling, according to two senior defense officials said. The officials briefed reporters on condition of anonymity.

The officials said the U.S. military was constantly assessing the threat, and concluded that the technology on the balloon didn’t give the Chinese significant intelligence beyond what it could already obtain from satellites, though the U.S. took steps to mitigate what information it could gather as it moved along.

[wadesworld]

The Americans were able to collect intelligence on the balloon as it flew over the U.S., giving them a number of days to analyze it and learn how it moved and what it was capable of surveilling, according to two senior defense officials said. The officials briefed reporters on condition of anonymity.

The officials said the U.S. military was constantly assessing the threat, and concluded that the technology on the balloon didn’t give the Chinese significant intelligence beyond what it could already obtain from satellites, though the U.S. took steps to mitigate what information it could gather as it moved along.

Shocking.

But what do I know?

[Uncle Rico]

😂

[Hards Alumni]

What do you think this mean long-term for the US economy and for US workers?

As long as we are all comfortable and not starving we will accept the status quo.

[rocket surgeon]

"Yes, Tucker is easy to figure out after five minutes.  He plays to your most base instincts.  Everything he has an interest in is based in fear.  Fear of the unknown.  Fear of the other.  Fear of exile.  Fear of death.  Fear of insignificance."


   ok, i'll admit i watch tucker and he never brought you up once hardy, but you sound like one angry depressed dude.  and oh yeah, the projection from you and your peeps is absolutely amazing

[Hards Alumni]

"Yes, Tucker is easy to figure out after five minutes.  He plays to your most base instincts.  Everything he has an interest in is based in fear.  Fear of the unknown.  Fear of the other.  Fear of exile.  Fear of death.  Fear of insignificance."


   ok, i'll admit i watch tucker and he never brought you up once hardy, but you sound like one angry depressed dude.  and oh yeah, the projection from you and your peeps is absolutely amazing

You didn't need to admit that, it's pretty obvious to everyone.  Much like your many, many insecurities.

You're so cute.  Stupid as hell, but cute.  I salute you, for being so entertaining.

[Jockey]

As long as we are all comfortable and not starving we will accept the status quo.

And those in power, know it.

[Babybluejeans]

Guys, geez. The dentists from suburban Milwaukee may be old and creepy and lack grammar, but they are definitely experts in international relations.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So reading through this thread....do you guys actually disagree about anything? It seems like everyone agrees that the balloon should have been shot down once it was in a safe location to do so...which is that happened.

[HouWarrior]

So reading through this thread....do you guys actually disagree about anything? It seems like everyone agrees that the balloon should have been shot down once it was in a safe location to do so...which is that happened.

Thanks Jockey for noting: ..."The Americans were able to collect intelligence on the balloon as it flew over the U.S., giving them a number of days to analyze it and learn how it moved and what it was capable of surveilling, according to two senior defense officials said. The officials briefed reporters on condition of anonymity.The officials said the U.S. military was constantly assessing the threat, and concluded that the technology on the balloon didn’t give the Chinese significant intelligence beyond what it could already obtain from satellites, though the U.S. took steps to mitigate what information it could gather as it moved along...." Then....

We waited until the balloon was over Myrtle Beach gathering super-secret intelligence on the miniature golf course scene there...then...
 boom ...great planning/great shot.
The falling debris avoided hitting any person or property on land and kerplunked in :
1) US territorial waters ;
2) in water less than 50 ft deep..(when its that shallow we can use Navy salvage divers to fetch it all-- think Men of Honor movie);  and
3) instead of a protracted recovery effort, we will fully collect all the leftovers and be gone in a few days...(to learn fully of its workings/functions/capabilities).

WOW!
When those tasked with handling perform to near perfection they get my atta boy
Great shot Maverick!

[#UnleashSean]

When those tasked with handling perform to near perfection they get my atta boy
Great shot Maverick!

For as inept and backwards as our Healthcare system and political leaders are, the US military is one pristine machine.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

SNL had funny open on the balloon last night.
 "Americans think a balloon is doing surveillance on them but yet all have an Alexa in their house."

I saw a meme floating around that said "A balloon is floating over the USA and this is how the media is covering it.". It showed a picture of an alien ship from the movie Independence Day.

[Uncle Rico]

So reading through this thread....do you guys actually disagree about anything? It seems like everyone agrees that the balloon should have been shot down once it was in a safe location to do so...which is that happened.

Fascinating, aina?

[Lennys Tap]

So reading through this thread....do you guys actually disagree about anything? It seems like everyone agrees that the balloon should have been shot down once it was in a safe location to do so...which is that happened.

That was my suggestion from the beginning. For that I was mocked for making a mountain out of a molehill, told my opinion (which the “experts” agreed with from the jump as we all know) was presumptuous and called a right wing, Tucker loving extremist. Now I guess I’m a Biden apologist. Gotta love Scoop.

[tower912]

Yet, here we all are.