Dear, David Joplin

[avid1010]

Jop is a poor man's Carmelo Anthony.

His last two games have been good on the defensive end.

He's going to take an O-Max jump over the summer in regards to putting the ball on the floor, and he's going to be an impossible guy to guard.

[Jockey]

Jop is a poor man's Carmelo Anthony.

His last two games have been good on the defensive end.

He's going to take an O-Max jump over the summer in regards to putting the ball on the floor, and he's going to be an impossible guy to guard.

Make that a beggar's Carmelo Anthony.  You are talking about a Hof'er.

[DoctorV]

If Jop can do to other college teams what Carmelo did to them I'd be elated.

If Jop can do to other NBA teams anywhere close to what Carmelo did to them I'd be shocked.

Still, a decent comp on style of play

[panda]

Jop ain't 6'8".

Wanna bet

[noblewarrior]

you mean the 6'8 dead eye shooter with an nba body playing very well in his first full season of action is shtick?

You just don't know ball

Chef's kiss 💋

[BLWarrior91]

At some point, Mitchell's minutes will probably go to both Jop and Ross.  Mitchell is a great glue guy but you can't consistently miss open shots and expect to play significant minutes. 

[brewcity77]

At some point, Mitchell's minutes will probably go to both Jop and Ross.  Mitchell is a great glue guy but you can't consistently miss open shots and expect to play significant minutes.

Hard disagree. Mitchell is part of the best lineup in the country. You don't mess with that. His defense is just as important as Jop's offense, if not more so, when it comes to making a March run.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

At some point, Mitchell's minutes will probably go to both Jop and Ross.  Mitchell is a great glue guy but you can't consistently miss open shots and expect to play significant minutes.

Our number one rated offense really needs some tweaking.

[BLWarrior91]

Hard disagree. Mitchell is part of the best lineup in the country. You don't mess with that. His defense is just as important as Jop's offense, if not more so, when it comes to making a March run.

I am referring to the future, not this year. 

[panda]

Hard disagree. Mitchell is part of the best lineup in the country. You don't mess with that. His defense is just as important as Jop's offense, if not more so, when it comes to making a March run.

Mitchell isn't integral. Lineups with Kolek and oso will naturally be more metrically efficient. Just because there is zero data supporting the jop for mitchel sub, doesn't automatically disqualify the option.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Jop - You've driven some of us Scoopers crazy this season.  I owe you (and Shaka) an apology for questioning the PT you've gotten.  I'm sorry.  Great game.  That is all.

Thanks for owning it. David has a very high ceiling which is why he may be frustrating to watch at times. Still a work in progress but that performance wasn't new to the staff as they have seen it before. In 2-3 years, we'll know whether he is indeed better than Baldwin as a few of us felt.

[brewcity77]

Mitchell isn't integral. Lineups with Kolek and oso will naturally be more metrically efficient. Just because there is zero data supporting the jop for mitchel sub, doesn't automatically disqualify the option.

Again, hard disagree. Mitchell doesn't stuff the box score, but he does all the little things that make this team so good. We know he's our best perimeter defender, but as a team we shoot 64.3% from 2 when he's on compared to 56.5% when he's off. That's not because of Stevie's personal shooting (55.1% from 2) or because he's creating those looks (9.0% assist rate) but because he knows how to make the right cut, how to draw attention, how to create space, and how to work off his teammates.

Compare that to Jop. When he's off our 2PFG% is at 63.3% but when he comes in it drops to 58.1%. And obviously the defense craters when he's on the floor. I really like Jop, and he certainly raises our 3PFG% ceiling when he's out there, but the staff knows what they're doing when it comes to Stevie starting and Jop coming off the bench.

If Jop is the comparison, using hoop-explorer...

Mitchell ON Offense: 119.4
Mitchell OFF Offense: 115.0
Mitchell ON Defense: 101.0
Mitchell OFF Defense: 100.9

Joplin ON Offense: 117.3
Joplin OFF Offense: 117.4
Joplin ON Defense: 104.4
Joplin OFF Defense: 98.1

Jop is earning his minutes. He's reasserting the sixth man role that Chase Ross was coming hard for. But before yesterday, in conference play he was averaging 9.0 ppg with a 44.8 eFG% and shooting just 28.9% from three. Yesterday was awesome and put some real shine on his numbers, but that was one game. Don't let your idea of who should be starting hinge on one hot shooting night.

As far as subbing Jop ahead of Mitchell in the lineup, that absolutely, 100%, no question should be automatically disqualified.

[Milkshakes]

Thanks for the analysis. I'd love to see Ross' numbers in that mix. Not suggesting Ross should jump Mitchell just genuinely curious.

[avid1010]

Brew...those numbers count for who else is in the rotation? 

The eye test was unfriendly to Stevie yesterday...they didn't pretend to guard him...and his guy chased the ball all over the court.  Teams aren't worried about his ability to drive and dish...and they had a rim protector and length that made it impossible for Stevie. 

Love the kid...but if he can't be a 3 and D guy...I would expect his minutes to shrink.

[Newsdreams]

Brew...those numbers count for who else is in the rotation? 

The eye test was unfriendly to Stevie yesterday...they didn't pretend to guard him...and his guy chased the ball all over the court.  Teams aren't worried about his ability to drive and dish...and they had a rim protector and length that made it impossible for Stevie. 

Love the kid...but if he can't be a 3 and D guy...I would expect his minutes to shrink.

In Shaka's system they won't

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Brew...those numbers count for who else is in the rotation? 

The eye test was unfriendly to Stevie yesterday...they didn't pretend to guard him...and his guy chased the ball all over the court.  Teams aren't worried about his ability to drive and dish...and they had a rim protector and length that made it impossible for Stevie. 

Love the kid...but if he can't be a 3 and D guy...I would expect his minutes to shrink.

We're #1 in offense. #70 in defense.  You want to take minutes from our best defender and give them to our worst defender (though he has improved a bit the past few games)?

Stevie had a bad shooting game. Veggie yesterday he was shooting 35% from 3 in Big East play.  His offense had been fine and his defense has been elite

[The Sultan]

Guys just watch Stevie on defense.  Look how, when he is on the top of the key, he is pushing the PG to one side or the other. He is effectively taking away a large portion of the opponents floor.  Stevie is not losing significant minutes. He is fifth on the team in minutes and IMO that is about where he will end up.

[panda]

Again, hard disagree. Mitchell doesn't stuff the box score, but he does all the little things that make this team so good. We know he's our best perimeter defender, but as a team we shoot 64.3% from 2 when he's on compared to 56.5% when he's off. That's not because of Stevie's personal shooting (55.1% from 2) or because he's creating those looks (9.0% assist rate) but because he knows how to make the right cut, how to draw attention, how to create space, and how to work off his teammates.

Compare that to Jop. When he's off our 2PFG% is at 63.3% but when he comes in it drops to 58.1%. And obviously the defense craters when he's on the floor. I really like Jop, and he certainly raises our 3PFG% ceiling when he's out there, but the staff knows what they're doing when it comes to Stevie starting and Jop coming off the bench.

If Jop is the comparison, using hoop-explorer...

Mitchell ON Offense: 119.4
Mitchell OFF Offense: 115.0
Mitchell ON Defense: 101.0
Mitchell OFF Defense: 100.9

Joplin ON Offense: 117.3
Joplin OFF Offense: 117.4
Joplin ON Defense: 104.4
Joplin OFF Defense: 98.1

Jop is earning his minutes. He's reasserting the sixth man role that Chase Ross was coming hard for. But before yesterday, in conference play he was averaging 9.0 ppg with a 44.8 eFG% and shooting just 28.9% from three. Yesterday was awesome and put some real shine on his numbers, but that was one game. Don't let your idea of who should be starting hinge on one hot shooting night.

As far as subbing Jop ahead of Mitchell in the lineup, that absolutely, 100%, no question should be automatically disqualified.

With jop's improvement on the defensive end, it's not as cut and dry to use past stats for your stance.

because both are really good in their role and make the team better in very different ways but for the sake of discussion. The spacing would only improve if Joplin was on the floor with our other four best players for longer stretches. It's not a coincidence jop has his best game while playing in kam's role with oso, omax and Kolek spacing and doing what they do best.

[The Sultan]

Or maybe he just got hot. Let's not read too much into one game.

[brewcity77]

Thanks for the analysis. I'd love to see Ross' numbers in that mix. Not suggesting Ross should jump Mitchell just genuinely curious.

Here's Ross' on/off splits:

Ross ON Offense: 111.3
Ross OFF Offense: 121.6
Ross ON Defense: 96.3
Ross OFF Defense: 104.4

The aforementioned 2PFG% drops from 63.0% to 57.9% when he comes on the floor. Similar to Joplin, this is less about his personal production (Ross is awesome inside the arc) and more about how his movement impacts the team as a whole.

If you go to Hoop Explorer and look at all lineups that have played 300+ possessions (15+ per game, based on 20 games so far) Marquette's is a narrow second (+37.0) to Purdue's starting five (+37.8). Stevie is part of that. Take him out and we get worse. For years, we've talked about how disappointing it was when the whole was not greater than the sum of the parts. This team NEEDS Stevie Mitchell out there in order to reach that "greater than the sum of the parts" plateau. Just because you can't quantify it in a box score doesn't mean his impact on this team isn't just as essential as the more statistically prolific Tyler Kolek or Kam Jones types.

I like our bench. I'm glad Jop can provide instant offense and Ross can come in as the lockdown guy. I'm glad Gold is earning minutes and Sean gives us a viable backup point guard. But none of them do as much to make the team as a whole better than Stevie does.

[MU82]

If you go to Hoop Explorer and look at all lineups that have played 300+ possessions (15+ per game, based on 20 games so far) Marquette's is a narrow second (+37.0) to Purdue's starting five (+37.8). Stevie is part of that. Take him out and we get worse. For years, we've talked about how disappointing it was when the whole was not greater than the sum of the parts. This team NEEDS Stevie Mitchell out there in order to reach that "greater than the sum of the parts" plateau. Just because you can't quantify it in a box score doesn't mean his impact on this team isn't just as essential as the more statistically prolific Tyler Kolek or Kam Jones types.

I like our bench. I'm glad Jop can provide instant offense and Ross can come in as the lockdown guy. I'm glad Gold is earning minutes and Sean gives us a viable backup point guard. But none of them do as much to make the team as a whole better than Stevie does.

Yessir. A consistent theme here was the whole "sum of parts" thing. And another was about our team being lousy on D. And now some of the same folks who were complaining about those things want to change a starting lineup whose sum of the parts has been elite and take minutes away from our best perimeter defender.

David has a very high ceiling which is why he may be frustrating to watch at times. Still a work in progress but that performance wasn't new to the staff as they have seen it before.

Exactly. Let's try to trust the coach -- the guy the vast majority of Scoopers believe is doing a hell of a job, and the guy who actually sees these kids working hard every single day.

[Milkshakes]

Here's Ross' on/off splits:

Ross ON Offense: 111.3
Ross OFF Offense: 121.6
Ross ON Defense: 96.3
Ross OFF Defense: 104.4

The aforementioned 2PFG% drops from 63.0% to 57.9% when he comes on the floor. Similar to Joplin, this is less about his personal production (Ross is awesome inside the arc) and more about how his movement impacts the team as a whole.

If you go to Hoop Explorer and look at all lineups that have played 300+ possessions (15+ per game, based on 20 games so far) Marquette's is a narrow second (+37.0) to Purdue's starting five (+37.8). Stevie is part of that. Take him out and we get worse. For years, we've talked about how disappointing it was when the whole was not greater than the sum of the parts. This team NEEDS Stevie Mitchell out there in order to reach that "greater than the sum of the parts" plateau. Just because you can't quantify it in a box score doesn't mean his impact on this team isn't just as essential as the more statistically prolific Tyler Kolek or Kam Jones types.

I like our bench. I'm glad Jop can provide instant offense and Ross can come in as the lockdown guy. I'm glad Gold is earning minutes and Sean gives us a viable backup point guard. But none of them do as much to make the team as a whole better than Stevie does.

Thanks. Love this stuff.  I won't lie my eye test says Stevie should get fewer minutes but this is super interesting.  I will be paying attention to how Stevie's movement and cutting creates offense.

[MU82]

Speaking of cutting ...

I loved the design and execution of the play that resulted in Kam getting a backdoor layup in the first half. It looked like Kam was going to drift to the arc, but he stopped quickly and he sharply cut to the hoop ... and Oso (of course) hit him in stride with a perfect pass for the bunny.

Just beautiful basketball.

[BLWarrior91]

Speaking of cutting ...

I loved the design and execution of the play that resulted in Kam getting a backdoor layup in the first half. It looked like Kam was going to drift to the arc, but he stopped quickly and he sharply cut to the hoop ... and Oso (of course) hit him in stride with a perfect pass for the bunny.

Just beautiful basketball.

That was beautiful.  Oso is such a great passer.

Another thing that stands out for me is how well all nine guys in the rotation can handle the ball.  What other team has its two biggest players be able to do what Oso and Gold can do?  Makes us so dangerous.

[muwarrior69]

Speaking of cutting ...

I loved the design and execution of the play that resulted in Kam getting a backdoor layup in the first half. It looked like Kam was going to drift to the arc, but he stopped quickly and he sharply cut to the hoop ... and Oso (of course) hit him in stride with a perfect pass for the bunny.

Just beautiful basketball.

I miss hero ball.