Bracketology Thread 2023

[withoutbias]

Yet another non-basketball related post from Scoop's least valuable poster (who also refers to posters as "Dweebs.")  I mean at least get more current with your dis, you douche.

Oh the irony. Also, it had as much to do about basketball as the post I responded to. Clown.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Joe Lunardi ESPN has Marquette as a #4 Seed playing #13 Seed Seattle

[PGsHeroes32]

Joe Lunardi ESPN has Marquette as a #4 Seed playing #13 Seed Seattle

And in typical lundardi fashion

VCU is the 12 seed

[Oldgym]

Shaka vs VCU in rd 2. Fun.

[MU82]

The four #4 seeds on bracketmatrix in the latest update:

Xavier
UConn
Marquette
Baylor

[The Thing]

That would be crazy!

[Its DJOver]

How is Oklahoma still even on the bubble?  Their entire resume consists of decent advanced metrics due to not getting blown out to frequently against the best of the B12 (before last night at least). 1 point to Texas, 3 to Iowa State, 4 to Kansas, 2 to Baylor.  They currently have one win over a tournament team per bracketmatrix (and it's almost equally as mind blowing that WVA currently projects in), and all of their Q1 wins are on the verge or dropping (Home W against #29 WVA cutoff is 30, neutral win over #44 Florida cutoff is 50, Road win @#73 Texas Tech cutoff is 75).  They certainly have a lot of opportunities left to pick up big wins, but they should be no where near an at-large right now IMO.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

How is Oklahoma still even on the bubble?  Their entire resume consists of decent advanced metrics due to not getting blown out to frequently against the best of the B12 (before last night at least). 1 point to Texas, 3 to Iowa State, 4 to Kansas, 2 to Baylor.  They currently have one win over a tournament team per bracketmatrix (and it's almost equally as mind blowing that WVA currently projects in), and all of their Q1 wins are on the verge or dropping (Home W against #29 WVA cutoff is 30, neutral win over #44 Florida cutoff is 50, Road win @#73 Texas Tech cutoff is 75).  They certainly have a lot of opportunities left to pick up big wins, but they should be no where near an at-large right now IMO.

You kind of answered your own question. They have good advanced metrics because they have played well against one of the most difficult schedules in the country (they are 5th in SOS). 6 of their 9 losses are Q1A losses and only one of those have been a true blowout. They have 3 Q1 wins and you are right they are all borderline but that's still better than most bubble teams.

Also, they are currently projected as 4th team out on bracketmatrix and that's before last night's blowout. They'll drop lower once that's taken into account.

You also have to look at their competition on the bubble. There are three teams below them appearing on multiple bracketmatrix brackets:

Utah State: Better NET, 0 Q1 wins, blown out in both of their Q1 games, 0 wins against projected NCAAT at large teams, 2 Q4 losses
Wake Forest: Worse NET, 1 Q1 win, 1 Q3 loss
Oklahoma State: Bettern NET, 2 Q1 wins, most of their Q1 losses are blowouts and 1 of their wins is also borderline, 1 Q3 loss.

Sometimes it's not about having a good resume, it's about everyone else having a worse resume

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Nice not having to discuss whether or not it's a soft bubble this year.

[Its DJOver]

You kind of answered your own question. They have good advanced metrics because they have played well against one of the most difficult schedules in the country (they are 5th in SOS). 6 of their 9 losses are Q1A losses and only one of those have been a true blowout. They have 3 Q1 wins and you are right they are all borderline but that's still better than most bubble teams.

Also, they are currently projected as 4th team out on bracketmatrix and that's before last night's blowout. They'll drop lower once that's taken into account.

You also have to look at their competition on the bubble. There are three teams below them appearing on multiple bracketmatrix brackets:

Utah State: Better NET, 0 Q1 wins, blown out in both of their Q1 games, 0 wins against projected NCAAT at large teams, 2 Q4 losses
Wake Forest: Worse NET, 1 Q1 win, 1 Q3 loss
Oklahoma State: Bettern NET, 2 Q1 wins, most of their Q1 losses are blowouts and 1 of their wins is also borderline, 1 Q3 loss.

Sometimes it's not about having a good resume, it's about everyone else having a worse resume

Guess I should have lead with "Is this years bubble historically soft?", because man that resume is weak.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Guess I should have lead with "Is this years bubble historically soft?", because man that resume is weak.

Honestly, every year I hear comments about the bubble being "historically soft" and teams with weak resumes getting in. I'm at the point where I think most people just overestimate what a "Last Four In" or "First Four Out" resume looks like. I think the only year I don't remember this was the last year of the Rowdy/Markus backcourt

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Playing around with the T Rank teamcast feature, Oklahoma would need to go 7-4 to make it as a 9 seed.

6-5 would have them in Dayton for the First Four, albeit very vulnerable to bid thieves and other at large teams.

So they're in the category of "technically still alive but need to get hot down the stretch."

[tower912]

GM not afraid of a Barra market.

[Galway Eagle]

Honestly, every year I hear comments about the bubble being "historically soft" and teams with weak resumes getting in. I'm at the point where I think most people just overestimate what a "Last Four In" or "First Four Out" resume looks like. I think the only year I don't remember this was the last year of the Rowdy/Markus backcourt

Wasn't that Rowsey Markus year the last year of RPI?  It was like if they had used NET we'd have been in over PC or something IIRC.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wasn't that Rowsey Markus year the last year of RPI?  It was like if they had used NET we'd have been in over PC or something IIRC.

I don't think we can say that NET would have gotten us in because we don't know everything that goes into it. What I recall from that season is that teams with similar resumes had made the tournament like 90% of the time in past seasons or something crazy like that.

[Carl]

Playing around on T-Rank. If we win out (including BET) it projects us as a 2-seed, which I agree is probably our seeding ceiling. If we lose @Creighton and @Uconn, run the rest of the table through the BET, we project as a 4 seed.  Thank kind of surprised me, I'd be expecting a 3 in that scenario.

[MU82]

Playing around with the T Rank teamcast feature, Oklahoma would need to go 7-4 to make it as a 9 seed.

6-5 would have them in Dayton for the First Four, albeit very vulnerable to bid thieves and other at large teams.

So they're in the category of "technically still alive but need to get hot down the stretch."

Remaining games: Alabama, Okla St, at WVa, at Baylor, Kansas, K-State, at Texas, Texas Tech, at Iowa St, at K-State, TCU.

Good luck winning 6 or 7 of those 11, Mr. Moser.

[PointWarrior]

Seattle University - Western Athletic Conference potential champs, winners of 8 in a row against nobodies, blown out by any reasonable D1 competition (Oregon State, Washington, Utah State (minus legendary coach Stew Morrill) and even Iona).

Joe Lunardi ESPN has Marquette as a #4 Seed playing #13 Seed Seattle

[brewcity77]

Guess I should have lead with "Is this years bubble historically soft?", because man that resume is weak.

It's strange, but I feel like the top end is weak but the bubble is strong. I find myself thinking "seriously, these are my options for the 3/5/6 lines?" but when I get to the bottom, there are 3-4 teams I really want to put in but there just isn't room.

[Its DJOver]

It's strange, but I feel like the top end is weak but the bubble is strong. I find myself thinking "seriously, these are my options for the 3/5/6 lines?" but when I get to the bottom, there are 3-4 teams I really want to put in but there just isn't room.

If you don't mind me asking, who?  The first four out on your last bracket were Wake Forest with an NET in the 70s, Penn St a sub .500 B10 team (with a down B10 this year) that just got blown out by a good but not great Rutgers team, Kentucky with their one Q1 win (even if it truly is one of the best wins that anyone has this season), and Southern Cal who has an NET in the 60s and only one real quality win. 

I can see the argument for any of them, given this years bubble, but they all have very legitimate reasons that they should be left out. 

[PGsHeroes32]

Lunardi finally has the Baders in last 4 in.

His last team in the field

[Dr. Blackheart]

Lunardi finally has the Baders in last 4 in.

His last team in the field

The only reason they are in?  Road win over MU.

[tower912]

Their Super Bowl.  MU's loss to a mid major.

[Oldgym]

Since we're talking about Lunardi's bracket, probably worth mentioning he has Marquette as a 4 playing Liberty in Orlando.

Ok, now back to the Badgers...

[The Sultan]

Since we're talking about Lunardi's bracket, probably worth mentioning he has Marquette as a 4 playing Liberty in Orlando.

The battle for the Magic Dawson Trophy.