Biggest Surprise

[panda]

It changes the results sure. But it doesn't change "who this team is."  That's silly.

Correct - they're a team that has not yet won a close game this year.

[lawdog77]

Correct - they're a team that has not yet won a close game this year.

So would you feel better if we only beat Baylor by 3? Or Radford?

[MuggsyB]

Sure

Help me out Panda.....what is Fluffy talking about?

[panda]

So would you feel better if we only beat Baylor by 3? Or Radford?

As stated previously, I feel very good about this team. However as it was brought up by someone else, it is concerning we're 0-4 against quality teams in close games.

Winning close games is a skill. When I see us handle teams down the stretch when we have a lead, I'll feel better. There are some lofty WL record projections thrown around here. We will need to win close games to get to that 12/13 win total in conference. 0-4 is not an indictment, especially this early in the season, but it was presented as a possible concern and I understand and recognize the possibility that may stop this team from realizing it's true potential.

[Jockey]

It would be a bigger problem if we got blown out in those games.  It would be a bigger problem if more of our wins were closer than they have been.

Agreed.

All one needs to do is look at the close games. We lost 3 close games to top 25 teams this year. Last year we won 3 close games against DePaul, Butler, and St. Johns. Huge difference.

[panda]

Help me out Panda.....what is Fluffy talking about?

He doesn't think our 0-4 record in close games against quality competition is cause for concern. He says it's better to lose a close game than get blown out (no duh). I say it's still early to press the panic button but our record in close games this season is less than stellar. 

[The Sultan]

So would you feel better if we only beat Baylor by 3? Or Radford?

Apparently he'd feel better if we won those two games close and got blown out in our losses. We would then be "2-0 in close games," yet have demonstrably worse results - which tells you how dumb this whole thing is.

[panda]

Apparently he'd feel better if we won those two games close and got blown out in our losses. We would then be "2-0 in close games," yet have demonstrably worse results - which tells you how dumb this whole thing is.

Not even remotely close to what I'm saying.

We played four close games. We're 0-4. I wouldn't be having this conversation if we closed out two of those four close games.

[lawdog77]

As stated previously, I feel very good about this team. However as it was brought up by someone else, it is concerning we're 0-4 against quality teams in close games.

Winning close games is a skill. When I see us handle teams down the stretch when we have a lead, I'll feel better. There are some lofty WL record projections thrown around here. We will need to win close games to get to that 12/13 win total in conference. 0-4 is not an indictment, especially this early in the season, but it was presented as a possible concern and I understand and recognize the possibility that may stop this team from realizing it's true potential.

Its just statistics. Winning "close" games will even itself out. Unless of course we beat everyone else by more than 5. I'm with those that would be more concerned if we got blown out in games. Worrying about being 0-4 in close games at this point is a strange hill to die on, IMO.

[MuggsyB]

He doesn't think our 0-4 record in close games against quality competition is cause for concern. He says it's better to lose a close game than get blown out (no duh). I say it's still early to press the panic button but our record in close games this season is less than stellar.

So hypothetically if we lose to XU twice, UCONN twice, and Creighton, Providence, and Nova once by a combined 10 points with chances to win all 7 games, Fluffy wouldn't be concerned whatsoever?  I'm a bit lost.  Ty. 

[The Sultan]

Not even remotely close to what I'm saying.

We played four close games. We're 0-4. I wouldn't be having this conversation if we closed out two of those four close games.

Wow! Are you saying it's better to win games than lose them???  SHOCKING!!!

Your argument has lost all semblance of logic. 

[panda]

Its just statistics. Winning "close" games will even itself out. Unless of course we beat everyone else by more than 5. I'm with those that would be more concerned if we got blown out in games. Worrying about being 0-4 in close games at this point is a strange hill to die on, IMO.

We're not going to blow everyone out. We've played great games which we dominated end to end for 40 minutes.

It's a different game flow playing in close games and we've struggled to score in the half court for stretches in those matchups.

Not really sure why it's so controversial.

[The Sultan]

So hypothetically if we lose to XU twice, UCONN twice, and Creighton, Providence, and Nova once by a combined 10 points with chances to win all 7 games, Fluffy wouldn't be concerned whatsoever?  I'm a bit lost.  Ty. 

If you think that's what I am saying, not only are you "a bit lost," I would question your ability to comprehend the English language.

[panda]

Wow! Are you saying it's better to win games than lose them???  SHOCKING!!!

Your argument has lost all semblance of logic.

Yes I am saying it's better to win games than lose games. My point of concern is that we've lost all four close games we've played.

[MuggsyB]

You're right Panda that there's no need to hit the panic button right now.  At the same time to think that we aren't going to have to win some close games, against our remaining quality opponents, not to mention in the NCAA tournament (assuming we make it) seems to be rather la-la-landish imo. 

[The Sultan]

Yes I am saying it's better to win games than lose games. My point of concern is that we've lost all four close games we've played.

Again if we would have played eight close games, and gone 4-4 in them, would you feel better about the season because of our record in close games?

[The Sultan]

You're right Panda that there's no need to hit the panic button right now.  At the same time to think that we aren't going to have to win some close games, against our remaining quality opponents, not to mention in the NCAA tournament (assuming we make it) seems to be rather la-la-landish imo. 

Who said we aren't going to have to win some close games in the future?

[MuggsyB]

If you think that's what I am saying, not only are you "a bit lost," I would question your ability to comprehend the English language.

Fluffy, your command of the English language may not be as strong as you believe? 

[MuggsyB]

Again if we would have played eight close games, and gone 4-4 in them, would you feel better about the season because of our record in close games?

You're clearly  missing the point.  Because it's about who we would have beaten in your hypothetical 4-4, not the margin of victory.  The fact is we have not played 8 tournament teams as it stands right now. 

[panda]

Again if we would have played eight close games, and gone 4-4 in them, would you feel better about the season because of our record in close games?

I'd feel better if we won 2 of the 4 close games we've been in this season.

I still feel good about this team. Would be more encouraged if we performed better in the close games we played this season.

Winning close games is a skill. I know some posters brains may explode with this one but look at providence last year. They had multiple guys who could score in various ways in the half court, great OOB sets when they needed buckets out of timeouts, played very organized tough half court defense and rebounded the ball well. Some Kenpom subscribers called that lucky because they "stole" a bunch of close games, but they were built to win those games.

We haven't showed those qualities yet in close games. That's not to say we can't be that team this year, but with younger players in new roles, it isn't a shock we haven't been great at closing out games.

[MuggsyB]

I'd feel better if we won 2 of the 4 close games we've been in this season.

I still feel good about this team. Would be more encouraged if we performed better in the close games we played this season.

Winning close games is a skill. I know some posters brains may explode with this one but look at providence last year. They had multiple guys who could score in various ways in the half court, great OOB sets when they needed buckets out of timeouts, played very organized tough half court defense and rebounded the ball well. Some Kenpom subscribers called that lucky because they "stole" a bunch of close games, but they were built to win those games.

We haven't showed those qualities yet in close games. That's not to say we can't be that team this year, but with younger players in new roles, it isn't a shock we haven't been great at closing out games.

Yes.  But in the most basic analysis it's simpler than that.  What is our record against probable or potential tournament teams?  That's essentially all that matters.  Fluffy prefers to live in an alternate universe and antagonize MU fans. 

[The Sultan]

Lol. Winning close games is not "a skill." You win close games the way you win blowouts.

Read this.

https://statsbywill.com/2021/08/02/college-basketball-close-games-study/

[The Sultan]

Yes.  But in the most basic analysis it's simpler than that.  What is our record against probable or potential tournament teams?  That's essentially all that matters.  Fluffy prefers to live in an alternate universe and antagonize MU fans. 

WTF are you even talking about?

[MuggsyB]

WTF are you even talking about?

We have four freaking close losses Fluffy.  1, 2, 3, 4. All four against potential tournament teams as it stands currently.  We have two wins against potential tournament teams.  1, 2.  That means we are 2-4 in these contests and that is all that matters right now.  The fact that you get unhinged and stuff is a personal issue that hopefully you can solve in the future. 

[PGsHeroes32]

You're clearly  missing the point.  Because it's about who we would have beaten in your hypothetical 4-4, not the margin of victory.  The fact is we have not played 8 tournament teams as it stands right now.

Yeah youre lost on this one. No offense but you cant tell someone they are "missing the point" when 5 posts ago you asked Panda to explain what is even going on haha.

None of this argument is about quality of opponent. Its all about whether close losses matter.

The close losses turned to close wins is not gonna be better than the blow out wins being turned to bad losses in almost any scenario.

Say we win Purdue and Wisconsin in close games. Heck yeah those are two big wins. But now if Baylor and Creighton wax us off the floor that is nullified.

Even more disasterous if we are swapping close losses and blow out wins would be if the blowouts of GT and ND turned into the losses in this scenario.

Our NET is going to be a huge key come tourney time. And one of the reasons we are top 30 right now with just a meh schedule is becaue we are boat racing teams, and losing tight games.