Big East 2024 Offseason

[Scoop Snoop]

Kind of depends on how the “bubble” teams of StJ, Providence, SH, X, Butler do against UConn, Creighton, and Marquette.

Many have 6-7 Q1 games left, most against the 3 front runners. They will also canibalize each other some.

So, I know conference record no matta, but a .500 or sub .500 BE team is gonna have a heckuva time getting in, especially in a season with pretty much 4 guaranteed wins.

It’ll work itself out, and the team(s) that beats those top 3 will slide in, but plenty of work to do for them all, even StJ.

5 is way more likely than 4, but I’d be willing to bet that the 5th is a first 4 squad.

If I had to handicap right now I’d say SH gets in and StJ is in the play in game.
X, Providence, Nova and Butler will have a lot to say in it though.

Should be pretty exciting to watch, a nice conference battle for the end of the season.

Some of our BE brethren were, umm, unimpressive in the OOC games early in the season. It may have been a case of getting high level transfers melded into a team rather than just a bunch of guys with the same unis, but they hurt themselves and, because we play them, Marquette as well since their value as opponents will be weighed by the entire season by the Selection Committee.

[wadesworld]

Kind of depends on how the “bubble” teams of StJ, Providence, SH, X, Butler do against UConn, Creighton, and Marquette.

Many have 6-7 Q1 games left, most against the 3 front runners. They will also canibalize each other some.

So, I know conference record no matta, but a .500 or sub .500 BE team is gonna have a heckuva time getting in, especially in a season with pretty much 4 guaranteed wins.

It’ll work itself out, and the team(s) that beats those top 3 will slide in, but plenty of work to do for them all, even StJ.

5 is way more likely than 4, but I’d be willing to bet that the 5th is a first 4 squad.

If I had to handicap right now I’d say SH gets in and StJ is in the play in game.
X, Providence, Nova and Butler will have a lot to say in it though.

Should be pretty exciting to watch, a nice conference battle for the end of the season.

Bracket Matrix last updated on 1/30.  St. John's was the 3rd 8 seed.  Going from there to an 11 seed is a pretty steep price to pay for a Q1 road loss.

[HowardsWorld]

Bracket Matrix last updated on 1/30.  St. John's was the 3rd 8 seed.  Going from there to an 11 seed is a pretty steep price to pay for a Q1 road loss.

If they win saturday vs Uconn which I believe they will then it wont matter. If they lose they will drop to 5-6 in conference and at best will finish .500 and there best win will be @nova who is also .500. I said three weeks ago that they blew their opportunity for the dance when they lost at UConn in a game they should have won. Regardless. 500 in the Big East this year is not worth of a spot and their resume shows it. Even if they go .500 in conference its all q3 wins. 

[Herman Cain]

https://nypost.com/2024/02/01/sports/rj-luis-struggles-in-st-johns-loss-to-xavier-with-practice-limited/amp/

[wadesworld]

If they win saturday vs Uconn which I believe they will then it wont matter. If they lose they will drop to 5-6 in conference and at best will finish .500 and there best win will be @nova who is also .500. I said three weeks ago that they blew their opportunity for the dance when they lost at UConn in a game they should have won. Regardless. 500 in the Big East this year is not worth of a spot and their resume shows it. Even if they go .500 in conference its all q3 wins.

I think people forget that you need to put 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.

St. John's is currently 22nd at Torvik, 36th at KenPom.  Torvik has them at 7-7 in Q1/2 games, projected to be 10-10 by year end.  He projects them to finish 12-8 in the BE, with 5 of the 6 games they're favored in being by 7 or more points.  So even if they lose every game they're projected to (under 1 point dogs at Butler and at Providence) and lose the one somewhat (though not really) tossup (2.8 point favorites against Creighton), they'll still finish 11-9.  They have 4 games against Georgetown and DePaul remaining and a home game against Seton Hall.  Is it possible for them to finish below .500?  Sure.  But it'd be a bad collapse.  As of right now, they're in very good shape.

Pick 16 teams (the number of spots above the at large cutoff they are in Bracket Matrix right now) from the list below and tell me why all 16 of those teams deserve to be ahead of SJU:

- Northwestern (currently 43rd at KenPom, 37th at Torvik, 6-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 9-8)
- Memphis (currently 70th at KenPom, 90th at Torvik, 6-4 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-6)
- Mississippi State (currently 33rd at KenPom, 28th at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-9)
- Michigan State (currently 17th at KenPom, 15th at Torvik, 4-8 in Q1/2, projected to finish 9-11)
- Ole Miss (currently 61st at KenPom, 48th at Torvik, 4-3 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-7)
- Texas A&M (currently 47th at KenPom, 62nd at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-11)
- Nebraska (currently 55th at KenPom, 55th at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-10)
- Villanova (currently 42nd at KenPom, 46th at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 9-12)
- Seton Hall (currently 57th at KenPom, 52nd at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-10)
- Colorado (currently 25th at KenPom, 30th at Torvik, 6-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-8)
- Texas (currently 35th at KenPom, 29th at Torvik, 4-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-9)
- Boise State (currently 51st at KenPom, 39th at Torvik, 7-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 11-7)
- Providence (currently 48th at KenPom, 47th at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-12)
- Cincinnati (currently 34th at KenPom, 42nd at Torvik, 3-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 3-12)
- Kansas State (currently 72nd at KenPom, 71st at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-12)
- Washington State (currently 44th at KenPom, 44th at Torvik, 6-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-7)
- Richmond (currently 76th at KenPom, 63rd at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-5, although just 1-2 in Q1)
- Florida (currently 31st at KenPom, 27th at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-9)
- Gonzaga (currently 19th at KenPom, 25th at Torvik, 3-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 5-7)
- Oregon (currently 50th at KenPom, 61st at Torvik, 3-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-8)
- Nevada (currently 59th at KenPom, 67th at Torvik, 3-4 in Q1/2, projected to finish 5-8)
- Virginia (currently 58th at KenPom, 60th at Torvik, 5-4 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-9)
- Virginia Tech (currently 56th at KenPom, 56th at Torvik, 4-8 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-11)
- Wake Forrest (currently 41st at KenPom, 45th at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-9)
- Butler (currently 53rd at KenPom, 53rd at Torvik, 4-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-12)
- Drake (currently 54th at KenPom, 57th at Torvik, 4-2 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-2)
- Xavier (currently 39th at KenPom, 41st at Torvik, 6-8 in Q1/2, projected to finish 9-12)

[HowardsWorld]

I think people forget that you need to put 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.

St. John's is currently 22nd at Torvik, 36th at KenPom.  Torvik has them at 7-7 in Q1/2 games, projected to be 10-10 by year end.  He projects them to finish 12-8 in the BE, with 5 of the 6 games they're favored in being by 7 or more points.  So even if they lose every game they're projected to (under 1 point dogs at Butler and at Providence) and lose the one somewhat (though not really) tossup (2.8 point favorites against Creighton), they'll still finish 11-9.  They have 4 games against Georgetown and DePaul remaining and a home game against Seton Hall.  Is it possible for them to finish below .500?  Sure.  But it'd be a bad collapse.  As of right now, they're in very good shape.

Pick 16 teams (the number of spots above the at large cutoff they are in Bracket Matrix right now) from the list below and tell me why all 16 of those teams deserve to be ahead of SJU:

- Northwestern (currently 43rd at KenPom, 37th at Torvik, 6-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 9-8)
- Memphis (currently 70th at KenPom, 90th at Torvik, 6-4 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-6)
- Mississippi State (currently 33rd at KenPom, 28th at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-9)
- Michigan State (currently 17th at KenPom, 15th at Torvik, 4-8 in Q1/2, projected to finish 9-11)
- Ole Miss (currently 61st at KenPom, 48th at Torvik, 4-3 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-7)
- Texas A&M (currently 47th at KenPom, 62nd at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-11)
- Nebraska (currently 55th at KenPom, 55th at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-10)
- Villanova (currently 42nd at KenPom, 46th at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 9-12)
- Seton Hall (currently 57th at KenPom, 52nd at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-10)
- Colorado (currently 25th at KenPom, 30th at Torvik, 6-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-8)
- Texas (currently 35th at KenPom, 29th at Torvik, 4-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-9)
- Boise State (currently 51st at KenPom, 39th at Torvik, 7-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 11-7)
- Providence (currently 48th at KenPom, 47th at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-12)
- Cincinnati (currently 34th at KenPom, 42nd at Torvik, 3-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 3-12)
- Kansas State (currently 72nd at KenPom, 71st at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-12)
- Washington State (currently 44th at KenPom, 44th at Torvik, 6-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-7)
- Richmond (currently 76th at KenPom, 63rd at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-5, although just 1-2 in Q1)
- Florida (currently 31st at KenPom, 27th at Torvik, 5-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-9)
- Gonzaga (currently 19th at KenPom, 25th at Torvik, 3-5 in Q1/2, projected to finish 5-7)
- Oregon (currently 50th at KenPom, 61st at Torvik, 3-6 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-8)
- Nevada (currently 59th at KenPom, 67th at Torvik, 3-4 in Q1/2, projected to finish 5-8)
- Virginia (currently 58th at KenPom, 60th at Torvik, 5-4 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-9)
- Virginia Tech (currently 56th at KenPom, 56th at Torvik, 4-8 in Q1/2, projected to finish 7-11)
- Wake Forrest (currently 41st at KenPom, 45th at Torvik, 5-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-9)
- Butler (currently 53rd at KenPom, 53rd at Torvik, 4-7 in Q1/2, projected to finish 8-12)
- Drake (currently 54th at KenPom, 57th at Torvik, 4-2 in Q1/2, projected to finish 6-2)
- Xavier (currently 39th at KenPom, 41st at Torvik, 6-8 in Q1/2, projected to finish 9-12)

You are right, I am not disagreeing. The only explanation in my opinion is that college basketball is down as a whole this year. You need 68 teams, 32 are auto bids. Then the top 36 best which comes to roughly 5 per power conference on avg. When you look at the Big Ten, Big East Pac 12. Truly there are probably 9 teams that are tournament worthy. Pac 12 has 2 at best with Arizona and Oregon. Big 10 with Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois. Big east with Uconn, Marquette, Creighton and Seton Hall. The tournament committee just from those 3 conferences has to choose 5 teams that truly aren't deserving and thats if none of the top 3 teams from each conference get auto bids.

Just look at Gonzaga. They have a horrible resume that would not normally get them in. If they don't win their conference tournamnent they should not get in. But given how poor the 9-11 seeds are going to be this year they will take a name like Gonzaga over a 5-6 team from a power 5 conference.

[GoldenEagles03]

I kinda chuckle at where the "National Media" views Marquette right now.

A lot of "Ya they are good, but something seems to be missing. When Kolek and Jones are off they are toast" takes.

Marquette beat Kansas with subpar Kolek and Jones, beat Seton Hall by 18 with non existent Kam and Kolek. I can tell you what's missing...it's continuity. Since Conference play started there has been a new injury every week.

To me, the ceiling on this team remains higher than last year. Joplin and Gold are knocking down shots. The defense is improved and one of the best in the Country per KenPom. Offense has been CLICKING the past few weeks.

If we get a healthy Kam and Tuesday's version of Chase Ross back for good, this team is as scary as there is in America 🤷‍♂️.

[wadesworld]

You are right, I am not disagreeing. The only explanation in my opinion is that college basketball is down as a whole this year. You need 68 teams, 32 are auto bids. Then the top 36 best which comes to roughly 5 per power conference on avg. When you look at the Big Ten, Big East Pac 12. Truly there are probably 9 teams that are tournament worthy. Pac 12 has 2 at best with Arizona and Oregon. Big 10 with Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois. Big east with Uconn, Marquette, Creighton and Seton Hall. The tournament committee just from those 3 conferences has to choose 5 teams that truly aren't deserving and thats if none of the top 3 teams from each conference get auto bids.

Just look at Gonzaga. They have a horrible resume that would not normally get them in. If they don't win their conference tournamnent they should not get in. But given how poor the 9-11 seeds are going to be this year they will take a name like Gonzaga over a 5-6 team from a power 5 conference.

That's not how it works at all.  They don't need to give any conference any number of bids.  If only 2 deserve to be in from the Pac 12, only 2 will get in.

Also, being below .500 in conference doesn't disqualify a team.  West Virginia went 7-11 in the Big 12 last year and was a 9 seed.

[SaveOD238]

You are right, I am not disagreeing. The only explanation in my opinion is that college basketball is down as a whole this year. You need 68 teams, 32 are auto bids. Then the top 36 best which comes to roughly 5 per power conference on avg. When you look at the Big Ten, Big East Pac 12. Truly there are probably 9 teams that are tournament worthy. Pac 12 has 2 at best with Arizona and Oregon. Big 10 with Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois. Big east with Uconn, Marquette, Creighton and Seton Hall. The tournament committee just from those 3 conferences has to choose 5 teams that truly aren't deserving and thats if none of the top 3 teams from each conference get auto bids.

Just look at Gonzaga. They have a horrible resume that would not normally get them in. If they don't win their conference tournamnent they should not get in. But given how poor the 9-11 seeds are going to be this year they will take a name like Gonzaga over a 5-6 team from a power 5 conference.

I don't think Gonzaga gets in without the auto-bid.  It's gonna be close.

I think you might need to recalibrate your expectations of who deserves to be in.  With how competitive the top conferences (Big 12, SEC, Big 10, Big East) are, it's a reasonable expectation that AT LEAST 40-50% of the teams from those conferences deserve to dance, sometimes more.  The next tier down (ACC, Pac 12, MWC) will get about 30% of their squads in on average.   

50% of Big 12: 7 teams
40-50% of Big East: 5 teams
40-50% of SEC: 6-7 teams
40-50% of Big 10: 6-7 teams

30% of ACC: 4-5 teams
30% of MWC: 4-5 teams
20-30% of Pac12: 3-4 teams

That gets you to between 35 and 38 teams in the dance.  Add the auto bids and the occasional at large from a mid major conference (Dayton this year would probably qualify, for example) and there's your field of 68.

[Its DJOver]

Gonzaga most likely has to win 2 out of SMC, @SMC, @UK to get an at-large.  Teams just don't get in when their best win is Syracuse.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I kinda chuckle at where the "National Media" views Marquette right now.

A lot of "Ya they are good, but something seems to be missing. When Kolek and Jones are off they are toast" takes.

Marquette beat Kansas with subpar Kolek and Jones, beat Seton Hall by 18 with non existent Kam and Kolek. I can tell you what's missing...it's continuity. Since Conference play started there has been a new injury every week.

To me, the ceiling on this team remains higher than last year. Joplin and Gold are knocking down shots. The defense is improved and one of the best in the Country per KenPom. Offense has been CLICKING the past few weeks.

If we get a healthy Kam and Tuesday's version of Chase Ross back for good, this team is as scary as there is in America 🤷‍♂️.

To be fair, the average game eFG% for MU's first five BE games was 43.7%.  For the last five, it's 61.9%. The media remembers the first five as that was similar to OOC.

The reality as we discussed here is that in either window, MU had wide open shots. However, MU went from "can't shoot" to "can shoot".

[tower912]

Without the home loss to Butler, nobody would have blinked.    Road losses to decent teams that play well at home are essentially shrugged off as the price of doing business.    Losing at home to Butler made all of the naysayers sit up and start sniffing.   

[GoldenEagles03]

To be fair, the average game eFG% for MU's first five BE games was 43.7%.  For the last five, it's 61.9%. The media remembers the first five as that was similar to OOC.

The reality as we discussed here is that in either window, MU had wide open shots. However, MU went from "can't shoot" to "can shoot".

But also came into the season as a "can shoot". I'd like to think the past 5 are more like the team we are.

[Jay Bee]

"Sounds like" and "maybe" far from guarantees. Chase is back, we are all happy. At least I am!

But that’s not all you said.

He'll be out a few weeks at minimum yet.

You made a stupid claim. Just own it - no one believed you in the first place any way.

[Goose]

tower

When it is all said and done, the Butler loss might have been the best thing to happen to the guys. They definitely learned they can be beat by a much less talented team, took some of the positive national narrative down a couple of notches and they likely heard there were naysayers in the MU fanbase. IMO, it might have been exactly what they needed at the time.
 

[Dr. Blackheart]

But also came into the season as a "can shoot". I'd like to think the past 5 are more like the team we are.

A few well-informed posters here had questions preseason, including me. MU has a tough stretch to end the season upcoming so let's hope the building blocks continue. Consistency is what I look for with the goal being peaking in March.

[GoldenEagles03]

But that’s not all you said.

You made a stupid claim. Just own it - no one believed you in the first place any way.

I didn't realize getting cleared for contact in practice would also clear him for game activity immediately.

I already owned it. I was wrong and I'm fine with it. You're happier I was wrong than Chase being back and that is also fine!

[tower912]

tower

When it is all said and done, the Butler loss might have been the best thing to happen to the guys. They definitely learned they can be beat by a much less talented team, took some of the positive national narrative down a couple of notches and they likely heard there were naysayers in the MU fanbase. IMO, it might have been exactly what they needed at the time.

It stunk.   As you say, it may have had the effect of focusing the team.

Get everybody healthy and finish strong.

[Scoop Snoop]

tower

When it is all said and done, the Butler loss might have been the best thing to happen to the guys. They definitely learned they can be beat by a much less talented team, took some of the positive national narrative down a couple of notches and they likely heard there were naysayers in the MU fanbase. IMO, it might have been exactly what they needed at the time.

Disagree. A last second, come-from-behind win? Sure. I think it would have accomplished pretty much what the loss did. Not exactly, but close enough.

[MDMU04]

Disagree. A last second, come-from-behind win? Sure. I think it would have accomplished pretty much what the loss did. Not exactly, but close enough.

I was hoping they would take their medicine after that pretty embarrassing showing against St Thomas.  I don't think the message was fully delivered and received until losing that Butler game.

I also think that playing shorthanded has helped focus the team over this recent stretch.  The margin of error is much smaller and the guys have been playing with a desperation that was missing for a few weeks in December/early January.

[Scoop Snoop]

I was hoping they would take their medicine after that pretty embarrassing showing against St Thomas.  I don't think the message was fully delivered and received until losing that Butler game.

I also think that playing shorthanded has helped focus the team over this recent stretch.  The margin of error is much smaller and the guys have been playing with a desperation that was missing for a few weeks in December/early January.

Good points regarding St Thomas and playing shorthanded. At the risk of sounding like a wacko conspiracy theorist, I think there was some tension between Kolek and the rest of the team that may have contributed to (but not necessarily caused) the poor performances. He seemed to have briefly lost the ability to focus his enormous energy on playing and, to me, seemed somewhat out of control and venting his anger. Strictly a judhement call on my part by its very nature admittedly.

[Herman Cain]

Good points regarding St Thomas and playing shorthanded. At the risk of sounding like a wacko conspiracy theorist, I think there was some tension between Kolek and the rest of the team that may have contributed to (but not necessarily caused) the poor performances. He seemed to have briefly lost the ability to focus his enormous energy on playing and, to me, seemed somewhat out of control and venting his anger. Strictly a judhement call on my part by its very nature admittedly.

SS:
Can you provide examples of what you think were the tensions? I am not sure that was evident.

It seems to me what happened in the losses was that defenses heavily overplayed TyKo's left hand , and used aggressive  body contact to push him off his spots, because he has not developed an ability to easily go to the right. 

Seems to me that TyKo made the necessary adjustments and moved back to pass first  (49 assists in 5 games) with opportunistic scoring and the result is a nice winning streak .

[Scoop Snoop]

SS:
Can you provide examples of what you think were the tensions? I am not sure that was evident.

It seems to me what happened in the losses was that defenses heavily overplayed TyKo's left hand , and used aggressive  body contact to push him off his spots, because he has not developed an ability to easily go to the right. 

Seems to me that TyKo made the necessary adjustments and moved back to pass first  (49 assists in 5 games) with opportunistic scoring and the result is a nice winning streak .

The one thing that comes to mind is when Kolek seemed to throw the ball at rather than to a teammate-I think it was Joplin- in a game. As I said, my comments are highly subjective and based upon the much ridiculed "body language" observations that are, to put it mildly, unwelcome on Scoop. I have nothing to offer that is concrete.

[tower912]

Go back listen to Shaka's presser after the losses.   Listen to what he says about attitude.   Listen to who he praises and who he name checks.    Listening to Shaka, I wouldn't say there was 'tension'.   There was frustration, and perhaps not all pulling in the same direction and not enough EGBs.

[Galway Eagle]

There was frustration, and perhaps not all pulling in the same direction and not enough EGBs.

Shaka should've done the Gordon Bombay drill where you tie everyone in a circle and yell "move together!"