New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB

[brewcity77]

Can someone explain to me why Saban's comments on TA&M 'buying every player' is news worthy? That seems as news worthy as saying TA&M runs screen plays. Is there a DI school that doesn't? I'm serious, what's next, coach's complaining about the three point shot in basketball?

The idea that Alabama, which is in the only state that actually repealed its NIL legislation because it was more restrictive than what the NCAA allowed, isn't buying players the same way is ridiculous.

[Its DJOver]

Can someone explain to me why Saban's comments on TA&M 'buying every player' is news worthy? That seems as news worthy as saying TA&M runs screen plays. Is there a DI school that doesn't? I'm serious, what's next, coach's complaining about the three point shot in basketball?

It's Saban sending a message to his boosters that they're going to have to start writing more and larger checks. 

[The Sultan]

Saban makes $9.5 million a year.  Cry me a river.

[WhiteTrash]

It's Saban sending a message to his boosters that they're going to have to start writing more and larger checks.

I think you hit the nail on the head.

Still not national news worthy, but well played by Saban.

IMO, this NIL thing is silly. The writing is on the wall, the players (who are not students) will be paid and have insurance, etc. along with endorsement deals. I think a HS draft would be unwieldy, so the highest bidder wins.  We will all be cheering for the "Golden Eagles brought to you by Marquette University" within 10 years. Players, coaches, sponsors and the IRS will be happy. Just one man's opinion.

[MU82]

It's Saban sending a message to his boosters that they're going to have to start writing more and larger checks.

Yessir. Here's The Athletic's take:

Alabama's Nick Saban is the best coach college football has ever seen. If you listen to him, though, you'd think the game was passing him by at each mile marker.

If you haven't been through this cycle, welcome. This is classic Saban-speak. It goes something like this:

Saban: "This new trend in the sport is worrisome, and I don't know if it's the direction we want to go."

Saban: Adapts to trend, becomes the best at said trend, pummels the entire sport into submission.

Saban complained to a crowd in Birmingham, Alabama, about Texas A&M "buying players" as opposed to Alabama's NIL efforts, which have been done "the right way," according to Saban. He specifically railed against the concept of NIL collectives instead of relying on players to create their own opportunities.

Let's circle back on who he complained to: a group of business leaders in Alabama's second-largest city. People who could form a NIL collective to benefit Alabama.

This is pitch-perfect Saban. He probably does believe what collectives do is unfair. But this was more a signal to local boosters who should get with the times, as well as a warning to competing schools that their "advantage" with collectives could be short-lived.

[The Sultan]

https://twitter.com/edsbs/status/1527309735078207489?s=20&t=EIPeCosB1otNeJn04XhSNQ

Oh my.

October 8 - A&M @ Alabama. 

[The Equalizer]

I don't really care about either of your arguments, but

1/3 = 0.3333333333333333

72/154 = 0.4675324675324675

0.4675324675324675 / 0.3333333333333333 = 1.40...

So your 1/3 number is only off by 40%.  No big deal right?  Rounding error. Except the first-four plus the first-round games are closer to 50% of the viewership.

I don't care much about your argument either, but . . .

First four + first round audience = 72 million
Subsequent rounds = 154 million
Total audience = 72 + 154 or 226 million

72 million / 226 million = 31.8%

The first four + the first round is nowhere near 50% of the viewership.  It's 31.8%, which is a LOT closer to 1/3 I said than the 50% you claim.

All this to show the idiocy of your argument that rights payments would decline by more than 50% if you gave up the first four and first round--rights payments are based on audience size, and if you gave up 72 million of 226 million, your rights payments would decline by about 1/3--not, as you claimed "more than half."

[The Equalizer]

Edit: It was poorly presented, but it was 72 million first round, 154 after the first round, so 226 million total.

But again, doing the math, it's about 6-8 million at a time first round, 10 million second round, 9 million at a time Sweet 16, 10 million at a time Elite 8. So the weekday games draw 6-9 million viewers at a time, weekend draw 10 million at a time, then there's a big jump for the F4.

All that said, there's not some precipitous jump, and people ramping up interest as the tournament progresses doesn't exactly seem like revelatory information.

Whether you consider the jump precipitous or not, the bottom line is that the first round (including the first four) only accounts for 1/3 of the total audience.  Since rights payments are based on audience size, it's hard to reconcile TAMU's statement that rights for a hypothetical P5 32 team tournament would decline by more than half. 

And the point of the whole exercise is to point out that with the current size of the revenue involved, the increasing concentration of power and influence in the P5, the fecklessness of the NCAA leadership, and the economic changes that NIL is bringing to the table, a breakaway P5 is not outside the realm of possibility.   

I'm not saying it's likely.  If I were to predict today, I would say that NCAA will probably keep the P5 as part of the organization, but at the cost of a significant shift of men's basketball tournament revenues to the P5.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't care much about your argument either, but . . .

First four + first round audience = 72 million
Subsequent rounds = 154 million
Total audience = 72 + 154 or 226 million

72 million / 226 million = 31.8%

The first four + the first round is nowhere near 50% of the viewership.  It's 31.8%, which is a LOT closer to 1/3 I said than the 50% you claim.

All this to show the idiocy of your argument that rights payments would decline by more than 50% if you gave up the first four and first round--rights payments are based on audience size, and if you gave up 72 million of 226 million, your rights payments would decline by about 1/3--not, as you claimed "more than half."

You're mixing up your posters. Rocky did some bad math but he clearly stated that he didn't have a dog in this fight.

I was the one who argued that the rights would decrease by more than half and still hold that to be true. You are trying to do an apples to apples comparison when that clearly won't be what happens. First, there are many thousands of viewers who will not tune into the tournament anymore if the P5 were to split. Second, you can't copy/paste the current round of 32 numbers into the first round of your 32 team tournament and say they will be the same. The numbers will be a lot more similar to the current first round numbers. And the second round numbers will be more similar to the Round of 32 numbers. And even if you disagree, you have to admit that is a risk and universities are not known for taking big risks when they are currently thriving in the status quo.

I'm not saying it's likely.  If I were to predict today, I would say that NCAA will probably keep the P5 as part of the organization, but at the cost of a significant shift of men's basketball tournament revenues to the P5.

So we disagree on the why but agree on what the ultimate result will be.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

https://twitter.com/edsbs/status/1527309735078207489?s=20&t=EIPeCosB1otNeJn04XhSNQ

Oh my.

October 8 - A&M @ Alabama.

TAMU signed 4 of the top 5 defensive linemen in the 2022 class (and 5 out of the top 10). I hope Saban got himself some offensive linemen.

[Hards Alumni]

TAMU signed 4 of the top 5 defensive linemen in the 2022 class (and 5 out of the top 10). I hope Saban got himself some offensive linemen.

I hope not.

[The Sultan]

TAMU signed 4 of the top 5 defensive linemen in the 2022 class (and 5 out of the top 10). I hope Saban got himself some offensive linemen.

I believe in Saban's ability to coach way more than I believe in Jimbo's.

[WhiteTrash]

I believe in Saban's ability to coach way more than I believe in Jimbo's.

I 100% agree but with oil at $100+ per barrel, I like Jimbo's chances to make it close.

[The Sultan]

I 100% agree but with oil at $100+ per barrel, I like Jimbo's chances to make it close.

LOL, good point.

[Jockey]

It's Saban sending a message to his boosters that they're going to have to start writing more and larger checks.

Ding! Ding!

[Jockey]

I believe in Saban's ability to coach way more than I believe in Jimbo's.

I don't know why. Now if you said you believe in Saban's ability to coach more than Jimbo when Saban has better players, I would agree.

What makes Saban's teams win more - the players or Saban's coaching? When Saban rarely runs into a team with better players, like Georgia this year, why can't his coaching overcome that?

[The Sultan]

I don't know why. Now if you said you believe in Saban's ability to coach more than Jimbo when Saban has better players, I would agree.

What makes Saban's teams win more - the players or Saban's coaching? When Saban rarely runs into a team with better players, like Georgia this year, why can't his coaching overcome that?

No one is perfect.  But cmon...the guy can coach obviously.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I believe in Saban's ability to coach way more than I believe in Jimbo's.

1000%, which is why I laughed when Jimbo got his latest contract. But the man can pull in talent. We'll see if he can outtalent everyone to a playoff appearance (and likely thrashing)

[WhiteTrash]

Boy, things are getting testy in SEC land. Kinda like if Bezo and Musk got into it.

Is all of this taking the luster off college sports? I've found myself gravitating more to pro sports in the past couple of years. Maybe that's just me. (maybe the Wojo effect  )

[PBRme]

I believe in Saban's ability to coach way more than I believe in Jimbo's.

He did not do very well with paid players in the NFL, maybe that is why he is worried.

[The Sultan]

Is all of this taking the luster off college sports?

Are you kidding?  This stuff is awesome!  Now the A&M AD called the Bama AD to complain that Saban's comments violate the SEC bylaws. (lol)

Nothing better than a nice feud.

[WhiteTrash]

He did not do very well with paid players in the NFL, maybe that is why he is worried.

Did you mean with "the other teams having paid players also"? (see Pitino, Calipari, Urban Myer)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Boy, things are getting testy in SEC land. Kinda like if Bezo and Musk got into it.

Is all of this taking the luster off college sports? I've found myself gravitating more to pro sports in the past couple of years. Maybe that's just me. (maybe the Wojo effect  )

Personally, the athletes being poor had zero impact on my interest in college sports.

[WhiteTrash]

Are you kidding?  This stuff is awesome!  Now the A&M AD called the Bama AD to complain that Saban's comments violate the SEC bylaws. (lol)

Nothing better than a nice feud.

The SEC Bylaws:

1. If you ain't cheating, you ain't trying.
2. If someone asks about 'Student' athletes, talk about Vanderbilt.
3. Payday is on Friday. 

[Uncle Rico]

Are you kidding?  This stuff is awesome!  Now the A&M AD called the Bama AD to complain that Saban's comments violate the SEC bylaws. (lol)

Nothing better than a nice feud.

College sports need coaches feuding.  It's awesome.  Would love Shaka telling Sean Miller he cheats and then Miller and X get mad and have some bad blood