2022 Transfer Portal Thread

[The Sultan]

Coaches have to be active in the portal because it's likely that their players will be too.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I think the wise coaches will go all in on the transfer rules. I think the wiser coaches will go all in on the 4/5 star high school players that were out of their reach two years ago.

Only so many rooms at the inn. When coaches at UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas are raiding the portal as their farm team, that's also a strong (anti) message to Grassroots AAU. It will be interesting where the equilibrium ends up.

[Tha Hound]

I think the wise coaches will go all in on the transfer rules. I think the wiser coaches will go all in on the 4/5 star high school players that were out of their reach two years ago.

Only so many rooms at the inn. When coaches at UNC, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas are raiding the portal as their farm team, that's also a strong (anti) message to Grassroots AAU. It will be interesting where the equilibrium ends up.

There are typically like 25 5 star recruits in any given class. I don't think there's an "only so many rooms at the inn" problem.

[Dr. Blackheart]

There are typically like 25 5 star recruits in any given class. I don't think there's an "only so many rooms at the inn" problem.

Of course I said 4/5 star recruits which are well over 100...but whatever.

[Tha Hound]

Of course I said 4/5 star recruits which are well over 100...but whatever.

Ok and how many high major teams with how many spots on each roster? I just don't see roster space ever being an issue for a top 100 recruit

[rgoode57]

I understand the pressure coaches are under to win, especially given the money they are paid now, but I am not sure anyone envisioned the transfer portal working the way it has turned out. It just seems weird that Iowa State, for example, can go to the portal and basically re-make their entire team in a single year. I heard one coach say that he does not intend to recruit hs kids at all anymore - just going to work the portal. Thinks there is less risk and more immediate results.

One thing I cannot help but wonder is how the transfer portal affects kids who have no chance of playing professionally. When the run-of-the-mill student transfers they have to think about how many credits will transfer, etc. Do these players even think about that or is just all about basketball. If, at the end of the day, you end up with no pro career of any kind and no degree, what did you accomplish?

[MU82]

The transfer portal is working out exactly the way I envisioned once they gave basketball players the same kind of free agency that most other student-athletes have enjoyed forever.

A coach at a P6 school has the same pressure he always has - to win. The grace period is gone, as evidenced by the various degrees of disappointment many Scoopers have expressed about the final 6 weeks of Shaka's first season, so that amps up the pressure even more.

Shaka's like any other coach. Ultimately, if he wants to keep his job, he needs to get to the NCAAT and win games in the tourney. If that means recruiting over players, so be it. Some of that has always gone on, anyway. It will happen more now.

What's Kolek supposed to think if Shaka brings in the best PG transfer? He's supposed to think that he has to get better ... or go elsewhere. He'll be one of hundreds of kids who will have to think similar thoughts.

The players got free agency, and they got a way to earn money while in college. Both things are long overdue IMHO, but it's early in the game and it will take some time for it to feel "normal."

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Ok and how many high major teams with how many spots on each roster? I just don't see roster space ever being an issue for a top 100 recruit

I don't think Dr. B said anything about there not being enough room on high major rosters. What I think he said was that teams (high major not) have increased opportunity to grab higher rated high school recruits than they previously did.

In the past, Kentucky/Duke may have taken on 6 man recruiting classes with the 5th and 6th guys being ranked in the 20s or 30s. Now they may only take 3 freshmen and 3 of the top transfers, meaning the 4th, 5th, and 6th freshmen that they would have taken in previous years are now free to be scooped up by the next tier down...and when those schools pick up those three freshmen, that frees up three other freshmen that they likely would have picked up to be picked up by another school the next tier down...and so on and so forth.

I think Dr. B is right and that's why I've said relationship focused coaches who can keep their kids from transferring will be at a premium moving forward. Of course, so will expert transfer recruiters. Different ways to skin a cat.

I think the thing really wise coaches will do is recruit a lot of players transferring after their freshmen years. You still get three years with them and they've burned their free transfer so they are unlikely to leave.

[rgoode57]

Can players only get one free transfer or can they do it multiple times?

[Goose]

TAMU

I would build a team around top transfers with 2-3 years of eligibility left. It takes a lot of pressure off of being right with true freshmen and gives freshmen time to develop.

[Tha Hound]

TAMU

I would build a team around top transfers with 2-3 years of eligibility left. It takes a lot of pressure off of being right with true freshmen and gives freshmen time to develop.

Think that's a solid philosophy and one that Shaka has at least partly adopted with guys like Omax and TK

[Pakuni]

Bryce Golden to Loyola.
Should be a good fit for the Ramblers.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Can players only get one free transfer or can they do it multiple times?

One free transfer. Though I believe that grad transfers are still a thing so theoretically 2 free transfers if they can graduate before exhausting their eligibility.

Think that's a solid philosophy and one that Shaka has at least partly adopted with guys like Omax and TK

Yep. I'm positive that was very much on Shaka's mind when he went after them. Guys to build around for multiple years.

[The Equalizer]

I don't think Dr. B said anything about there not being enough room on high major rosters. What I think he said was that teams (high major not) have increased opportunity to grab higher rated high school recruits than they previously did.

In the past, Kentucky/Duke may have taken on 6 man recruiting classes with the 5th and 6th guys being ranked in the 20s or 30s. Now they may only take 3 freshmen and 3 of the top transfers, meaning the 4th, 5th, and 6th freshmen that they would have taken in previous years are now free to be scooped up by the next tier down...and when those schools pick up those three freshmen, that frees up three other freshmen that they likely would have picked up to be picked up by another school the next tier down...and so on and so forth.

I think Dr. B is right and that's why I've said relationship focused coaches who can keep their kids from transferring will be at a premium moving forward. Of course, so will expert transfer recruiters. Different ways to skin a cat.

I think the thing really wise coaches will do is recruit a lot of players transferring after their freshmen years. You still get three years with them and they've burned their free transfer so they are unlikely to leave.

One small issue that I think you and the Dr. might be overlooking. 

The top 100 recruits are almost all long committed by the time transfers start to show up in the portal.

The early signing period for 2023 HS players takes place in November of 2022. 13 top 50 players are already vebally committed--most to the likes of Duke, Michigan State, Kentucky, UNC, Arizona. I cannot imagine these teams limiting their recruitment of a top 100 prospect in order to hold that scholarship for a potential transfer that won't be announced until March or April of 2023.

I think they'll continue to recruit and sign any HS players they want, and If a transfer they want happens to become available, they'll find a way to clear space -- most likely by announcing the player 11th through 13th on the depth chart has decided to transfer, or perhaps they need to backfill a player that just declared early for the NBA. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

One small issue that I think you and the Dr. might be overlooking. 

The top 100 recruits are almost all long committed by the time transfers start to show up in the portal.

The early signing period for 2023 HS players takes place in November of 2022. 13 top 50 players are already vebally committed--most to the likes of Duke, Michigan State, Kentucky, UNC, Arizona. I cannot imagine these teams limiting their recruitment of a top 100 prospect in order to hold that scholarship for a potential transfer that won't be announced until March or April of 2023.

I think they'll continue to recruit and sign any HS players they want, and If a transfer they want happens to become available, they'll find a way to clear space -- most likely by announcing the player 11th through 13th on the depth chart has decided to transfer, or perhaps they need to backfill a player that just declared early for the NBA. 

I think they will be holding spots for transfers more than they used to.  Plus those that get recruited over by transfers can decommit or transfer themselves, see transfer from Kentucky we contacted yesterday.

[MU82]

If a guy signs a letter of intent and then decides he wants to go elsewhere, does that count as his free transfer?

[The Sultan]

If a guy signs a letter of intent and then decides he wants to go elsewhere, does that count as his free transfer?

I don't believe so. 

[The Equalizer]

I think they will be holding spots for transfers more than they used to.  Plus those that get recruited over by transfers can decommit or transfer themselves, see transfer from Kentucky we contacted yesterday.

Your second sentence explains why the first won't happen.

The fact that teams have other ways to find space on the roster for an incoming transfer--either by releasing an incoming freshman or having an upperclassman transfer out--means that there is absolutely no reason to hold a scholarship open.

Let's put it another way.  Can you imagine UNC going through all the time and effort to evaluate and recruit Seth Trimble so that by June of 2021, when Trimble is ready to commit, UNC tells him they're withdrawing their offer because they want to hold the scholarship open for a potential transfer ten months in the future?  And I used the example of Trimble specifically because he's not a five star, McDonald's AA.   At the time he committed he was ranked 54th--Solid 4-star prospect.

What you're saying is that teams like UNC will intentionally not sign players like Seth Trimble and instead hold scholarships open for a possible transfer.  I think that's crazy. 

[lawdog77]

If a guy signs a letter of intent and then decides he wants to go elsewhere, does that count as his free transfer?

Here's what I found:
The NLI is a one year binding contract. If you signed an NLI and want to transfer before finishing your freshman year, then you will need a release from the NLI in addition to permission to contact other schools and/or permission to use the one-time transfer exception.

While the NLI is in effect, it can impact a transfer in two ways. First, the NLI includes a recruiting ban, so other schools may not recruit you until you are released from that ban. Second, the NLI includes a penalty if you do not attend the school you signed with for one academic year. If you do not fulfill the NLI and enroll in another NLI school, you may not compete for one year and you lose one season of eligibility in all sports.

To get a release from the National Letter of Intent, you must use the release form on the NLI website. After you fill out your section of the form, you send a copy of the form to two places: your school's athletic department offices and to the NLI offices at the NCAA Eligibility Center. Once you send the form, the athletic department must respond within 30 days. There are three options for them to respond:

No release – This means you are not released from the NLI and all of its provisions are still in effect.
Complete release – This means you are released from all of the NLI's provisions.
Removal of the recruiting ban – This means the recruiting ban is lifted, but the NLI penalty is still in effect if you do not fulfill the NLI.
NLI releases cannot be school-specific, like permission to contact. So you cannot be released to one school but not another. Because of this, many schools will first remove the recruiting ban, but may not grant a complete release until the school knows where an athlete plans to transfer.

If a release is not granted, a student-athlete has 30 days to appeal to the NLI Policy and Review Committee (rather than to a group at the school). If the student-athlete losses that appeal, there is a second appeal to the NLI Appeals Committee. Each appeal takes approximately six to eight weeks to get a decision.

[MU82]

Here's what I found:
The NLI is a one year binding contract. If you signed an NLI and want to transfer before finishing your freshman year, then you will need a release from the NLI in addition to permission to contact other schools and/or permission to use the one-time transfer exception.

While the NLI is in effect, it can impact a transfer in two ways. First, the NLI includes a recruiting ban, so other schools may not recruit you until you are released from that ban. Second, the NLI includes a penalty if you do not attend the school you signed with for one academic year. If you do not fulfill the NLI and enroll in another NLI school, you may not compete for one year and you lose one season of eligibility in all sports.

To get a release from the National Letter of Intent, you must use the release form on the NLI website. After you fill out your section of the form, you send a copy of the form to two places: your school's athletic department offices and to the NLI offices at the NCAA Eligibility Center. Once you send the form, the athletic department must respond within 30 days. There are three options for them to respond:

No release – This means you are not released from the NLI and all of its provisions are still in effect.
Complete release – This means you are released from all of the NLI's provisions.
Removal of the recruiting ban – This means the recruiting ban is lifted, but the NLI penalty is still in effect if you do not fulfill the NLI.
NLI releases cannot be school-specific, like permission to contact. So you cannot be released to one school but not another. Because of this, many schools will first remove the recruiting ban, but may not grant a complete release until the school knows where an athlete plans to transfer.

If a release is not granted, a student-athlete has 30 days to appeal to the NLI Policy and Review Committee (rather than to a group at the school). If the student-athlete losses that appeal, there is a second appeal to the NLI Appeals Committee. Each appeal takes approximately six to eight weeks to get a decision.

Thanks for that very thorough answer, lawdog.

[Herman Cain]

It is official now, Bowman to Oakland University . Nice pick up for the Golden Grizzlies. I wonder if they sign Greg now? 

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/2022/04/10/oakland-basketball-transfer-lorne-bowman-ii-wisconsin/9535957002/

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Your second sentence explains why the first won't happen.

The fact that teams have other ways to find space on the roster for an incoming transfer--either by releasing an incoming freshman or having an upperclassman transfer out--means that there is absolutely no reason to hold a scholarship open.

Let's put it another way.  Can you imagine UNC going through all the time and effort to evaluate and recruit Seth Trimble so that by June of 2021, when Trimble is ready to commit, UNC tells him they're withdrawing their offer because they want to hold the scholarship open for a potential transfer ten months in the future?  And I used the example of Trimble specifically because he's not a five star, McDonald's AA.   At the time he committed he was ranked 54th--Solid 4-star prospect.

What you're saying is that teams like UNC will intentionally not sign players like Seth Trimble and instead hold scholarships open for a possible transfer.  I think that's crazy.

You can call it crazy but it's happening. Coaches have limited time,  resources, and energy to dedicate to recruiting and with the changes to the transfer portal,  many of them are shifting their focus from high school recruits towards the transfer portal. That doesn't mean that the are abandoning high school recruiting,  it's just a smaller part of the puzzle than it used to be

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Marquette not listed with Manny Bates.  Looks like Warren Washington is the focus at C.


https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1513558970027241473?t=oVLbjloBPxiNCX1VHlUS0A&s=19

[PointWarrior]

Do we expect a "414" announcement?

[Tha Hound]

Marquette not listed with Manny Bates.  Looks like Warren Washington is the focus at C.


https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1513558970027241473?t=oVLbjloBPxiNCX1VHlUS0A&s=19

Too bad but Washington would be a huge get, and him along with Justin staying would set us up for a great year.