Explosions in Kiev

[Jockey]

Sports world starting to punish Russia.

F1 cancels the Russian Grand Prix.
https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/33367628/russian-grand-prix-cancelled-ukraine-invasion

UEFA moving Champions League Final from St. Petersburg to Paris.
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11945/12551034/champions-league-final-moved-to-paris-from-st-petersburg-after-russian-invasion-of-ukraine 

Man United cancels sponsorship deal with Aeroflot
https://www.si.com/soccer/2022/02/25/manchester-united-sponsorship-rights-russian-aeroflot

International Ski Federation cancels five upcoming World Cup events in Russia
https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/sports/skiing-japan-pulls-out-russia-ski-cross-world-cup-event-2022-02-25/

FC Schalke 04 removing logo of its main sponsor, the Russian oil company Gazprom,from their kits.
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/24/1082794434/russia-gazprom-logo-soccer

I really don't think Putin cares about this any more than he cared that Russian athletes weren't allowed to represent Russia at the Olympics.

[Pakuni]

Adam Kinzinger calls for the US to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

@AdamKinzinger: 1) The fate of #Ukraine is being decided tonight, but also the fate of the west. Declare a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine at the invitation of their sovereign govt. Disrupt Russias air ops to give the heroic Ukrainians a fair fight.  It's now, or later.
@AdamKinzinger: 2) History teaches that taking a stand is inevitable and gets more costly with time.  We own the skies, Russia cannot hold a candle to our Air power.  Do this.  Putin is too dangerous to hope he is satisfied with "just Ukraine."

[Pakuni]

I really don't think Putin cares about this any more than he cared that Russian athletes weren't allowed to represent Russia at the Olympics.

Putin is a huge sports guy and takes a great deal of pride in Russia being on the international sports stage (see: Sochi).
No, this won't cause him to high-tail it out of Ukraine, but the more painful this becomes, and the more isolated Russia becomes, the better.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Adam Kinzinger calls for the US to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

@AdamKinzinger: 1) The fate of #Ukraine is being decided tonight, but also the fate of the west. Declare a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine at the invitation of their sovereign govt. Disrupt Russias air ops to give the heroic Ukrainians a fair fight.  It's now, or later.
@AdamKinzinger: 2) History teaches that taking a stand is inevitable and gets more costly with time.  We own the skies, Russia cannot hold a candle to our Air power.  Do this.  Putin is too dangerous to hope he is satisfied with "just Ukraine."

I got there this afternoon for the same reasons he gives. 
5 NATO countries began flooding Ukraine with anti air and tank missiles today.

[Hards Alumni]

Adam Kinzinger calls for the US to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

@AdamKinzinger: 1) The fate of #Ukraine is being decided tonight, but also the fate of the west. Declare a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine at the invitation of their sovereign govt. Disrupt Russias air ops to give the heroic Ukrainians a fair fight.  It's now, or later.
@AdamKinzinger: 2) History teaches that taking a stand is inevitable and gets more costly with time.  We own the skies, Russia cannot hold a candle to our Air power.  Do this.  Putin is too dangerous to hope he is satisfied with "just Ukraine."

Okay, but how to enforce this.

[Pakuni]

Okay, but how to enforce this.

I think he's pretty explicit in what he's suggesting.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I really don't think Putin cares about this any more than he cared that Russian athletes weren't allowed to represent Russia at the Olympics.

Putin cares a lot about sportswashing.

An easy thing to watch is how the English government handles Abromovic and his ownership of Chelsea.  Abromovic is a big putin crony.

[Dr. Blackheart]

The Wieners Circle (@TheWienerCircle) Tweeted:
Мир в Україні
Peace in Ukraine https://t.co/k1KPzbBGAv

[NolongerWarriors]

Adam Kinzinger calls for the US to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

@AdamKinzinger: 1) The fate of #Ukraine is being decided tonight, but also the fate of the west. Declare a #NoFlyZone over Ukraine at the invitation of their sovereign govt. Disrupt Russias air ops to give the heroic Ukrainians a fair fight.  It's now, or later.
@AdamKinzinger: 2) History teaches that taking a stand is inevitable and gets more costly with time.  We own the skies, Russia cannot hold a candle to our Air power.  Do this.  Putin is too dangerous to hope he is satisfied with "just Ukraine."

Kinzinger is a whiny brat who wants to start WW3.

Russia doesn't seem to have much support for the Ukraine invasion and killing Ukranians from it's citizens, but once the US gets involved militarily, that will drastically change when it becomes Russia vs USA.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Kinzinger jumped the shark on that one.

[Hards Alumni]

I think he's pretty explicit in what he's suggesting.

Not really, he is suggesting a no fly zone, but that would 100% lead to war.

[WarriorFan]

As I was sitting in my hotel room (overlooking the Kremlin) in Moscow Thursday night, I wrote this but then decided not to post.  After a few more discussions with Russian friends and colleagues, I offer the following to this discussion:
- from a Western perspective Putin is not rational however he has played a long game in his own country to make his actions look very rational to the Russian people.
- Most Russians don't want war, but there is strong evidence (to most Russians) that life in Russia is far better than life in the former Soviet republics outside of Russia.  The huge amount of Ukranian migrant labor (about 1.5m people) in Russia is one point of concrete evidence of this.
- Part of Putin's game is claiming that Ukraine is a USA puppet state, so when Russia overtakes Ukraine (and they will) and installs their own puppet government they will have - by Putin's definition - "beaten the USA".  Russian people buy into this argument.
-  Russians are the 2nd most patriotic people I've ever met (after Americans, of course).  They believe in a "big, strong" Russia.
- Most Russians know exactly how messed up their system and leadership is... just like Americans (to be fair this is not a Trump/Biden comment), and are pretty honest about it in private.  It's still much better in Russia now than it was in the 90's, so all who remember the 90's tolerate the situation today because you can live, work, earn, travel, and even enjoy life.

As for the western actions:
- Sanctions don't work because money is like water, it finds a path and reaches its level.  I have read the entire text of all of the sanctions (job requirement) and most of them are narrowly focused so they will not significantly alter the major avenues of trade and foreign exchange for Russia.  They "look good" but are mostly a political act with little substance.
- As for military support I have no expertise, but refer to previous comments... Russians view Ukraine as a US proxy fighting with US weapons and US training.  Victory would be a huge morale boost.
- Terminating SWIFT for Russia would be a huge negative.  It seems the EU politicians are smarter than this.  It would be very bad for the US.  Now all commodities trades and Gas/Petro contracts are denominated in USD.  If SWIFT is switched off, the only other functioning system for international currency movement is the Chinese system, and it requires settlement in Yuan.  Russia is a top 5 producer of oil, gas, nickel, platinum, palladium, and coal.  Settling Russian volumes in Yuan would create a critical mass that drives other trade to Yuan thereby fulfilling a massive Chinese objective.  The US "superpower" status is largely contingent these days on the USD as the world's currency. 

I'm not saying "let it happen"... nor that it is "fait accompli" but it's very close to that.  The western world would do well to be several steps ahead by ensuring that NATO boundaries are not crossed, and that China doesn't get any motivation to do the same in Taiwan.

[pbiflyer]

Thanks for the insight.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

As I was sitting in my hotel room (overlooking the Kremlin) in Moscow Thursday night, I wrote this but then decided not to post.  After a few more discussions with Russian friends and colleagues, I offer the following to this discussion:
- from a Western perspective Putin is not rational however he has played a long game in his own country to make his actions look very rational to the Russian people.
- Most Russians don't want war, but there is strong evidence (to most Russians) that life in Russia is far better than life in the former Soviet republics outside of Russia.  The huge amount of Ukranian migrant labor (about 1.5m people) in Russia is one point of concrete evidence of this.
- Part of Putin's game is claiming that Ukraine is a USA puppet state, so when Russia overtakes Ukraine (and they will) and installs their own puppet government they will have - by Putin's definition - "beaten the USA".  Russian people buy into this argument.
-  Russians are the 2nd most patriotic people I've ever met (after Americans, of course).  They believe in a "big, strong" Russia.
- Most Russians know exactly how messed up their system and leadership is... just like Americans (to be fair this is not a Trump/Biden comment), and are pretty honest about it in private.  It's still much better in Russia now than it was in the 90's, so all who remember the 90's tolerate the situation today because you can live, work, earn, travel, and even enjoy life.

As for the western actions:
- Sanctions don't work because money is like water, it finds a path and reaches its level.  I have read the entire text of all of the sanctions (job requirement) and most of them are narrowly focused so they will not significantly alter the major avenues of trade and foreign exchange for Russia.  They "look good" but are mostly a political act with little substance.
- As for military support I have no expertise, but refer to previous comments... Russians view Ukraine as a US proxy fighting with US weapons and US training.  Victory would be a huge morale boost.
- Terminating SWIFT for Russia would be a huge negative.  It seems the EU politicians are smarter than this.  It would be very bad for the US.  Now all commodities trades and Gas/Petro contracts are denominated in USD.  If SWIFT is switched off, the only other functioning system for international currency movement is the Chinese system, and it requires settlement in Yuan.  Russia is a top 5 producer of oil, gas, nickel, platinum, palladium, and coal.  Settling Russian volumes in Yuan would create a critical mass that drives other trade to Yuan thereby fulfilling a massive Chinese objective.  The US "superpower" status is largely contingent these days on the USD as the world's currency. 

I'm not saying "let it happen"... nor that it is "fait accompli" but it's very close to that.  The western world would do well to be several steps ahead by ensuring that NATO boundaries are not crossed, and that China doesn't get any motivation to do the same in Taiwan.

Dang.  Thank you.  Love the geopolitical aspect, despite the human harm being done by putin.

[rocky_warrior]

- Part of Putin's game is claiming that Ukraine is a USA puppet state, so when Russia overtakes Ukraine (and they will) and installs their own puppet government they will have - by Putin's definition - "beaten the USA".  Russian people buy into this argument.

Hm.  My only point of contention.  The only country this action will hurt in the long term is Russia.  There is no other outcome.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Hm.  My only point of contention.  The only country this action will hurt in the long term is Russia.  There is no other outcome.

I would add China. They picked wrong.

[WarriorFan]

Hm.  My only point of contention.  The only country this action will hurt in the long term is Russia.  There is no other outcome.

100% agree with you, and seeing it already in terms of the short term impact on the economy, inflation, etc.  No rational mind can find any way that this situation is better for any person or country.  My point was only to explain the prevailing logic (rational or not) from the other side - for discussion.

[rocky_warrior]

I would add China. They picked wrong.

Hah.  China is an interesting one.  They're essentially the new "cold war", though I'll dub it the "digital war" foe.  The only country the US would REALLY have an aversion to fighting.  Next time you buy me a few beers, I'll talk your ear off about it 

Oh, and Putin Sucks.

[rocky_warrior]

100% agree with you, and seeing it already in terms of the short term impact on the economy, inflation, etc.  No rational mind can find any way that this situation is better for any person or country.  My point was only to explain the prevailing logic (rational or not) from the other side - for discussion.

Fair, and appreciate the perspective!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Hah.  China is an interesting one.  They're essentially the new "cold war", though I'll dub it the "digital war" foe.  The only country the US would REALLY have an aversion to fighting.  Next time you buy me a few beers, I'll talk you ear off about it 

Oh, and Putin Sucks.

China is heavily dependent on the US economy. Xi is obsessed with Taiwan. In the long history of China, there is only one treaty they violated seriously and that was the overstep in Hong Kong. November is his re-election and the USA can make that tough. Biden shared intel with Jing and he went right to Putin. Blinken played them both and exposed that. The Olympics were a failure.

[MuggsyB]

As I was sitting in my hotel room (overlooking the Kremlin) in Moscow Thursday night, I wrote this but then decided not to post.  After a few more discussions with Russian friends and colleagues, I offer the following to this discussion:
- from a Western perspective Putin is not rational however he has played a long game in his own country to make his actions look very rational to the Russian people.
- Most Russians don't want war, but there is strong evidence (to most Russians) that life in Russia is far better than life in the former Soviet republics outside of Russia.  The huge amount of Ukranian migrant labor (about 1.5m people) in Russia is one point of concrete evidence of this.
- Part of Putin's game is claiming that Ukraine is a USA puppet state, so when Russia overtakes Ukraine (and they will) and installs their own puppet government they will have - by Putin's definition - "beaten the USA".  Russian people buy into this argument.
-  Russians are the 2nd most patriotic people I've ever met (after Americans, of course).  They believe in a "big, strong" Russia.
- Most Russians know exactly how messed up their system and leadership is... just like Americans (to be fair this is not a Trump/Biden comment), and are pretty honest about it in private.  It's still much better in Russia now than it was in the 90's, so all who remember the 90's tolerate the situation today because you can live, work, earn, travel, and even enjoy life.

As for the western actions:
- Sanctions don't work because money is like water, it finds a path and reaches its level.  I have read the entire text of all of the sanctions (job requirement) and most of them are narrowly focused so they will not significantly alter the major avenues of trade and foreign exchange for Russia.  They "look good" but are mostly a political act with little substance.
- As for military support I have no expertise, but refer to previous comments... Russians view Ukraine as a US proxy fighting with US weapons and US training.  Victory would be a huge morale boost.
- Terminating SWIFT for Russia would be a huge negative.  It seems the EU politicians are smarter than this.  It would be very bad for the US.  Now all commodities trades and Gas/Petro contracts are denominated in USD.  If SWIFT is switched off, the only other functioning system for international currency movement is the Chinese system, and it requires settlement in Yuan.  Russia is a top 5 producer of oil, gas, nickel, platinum, palladium, and coal.  Settling Russian volumes in Yuan would create a critical mass that drives other trade to Yuan thereby fulfilling a massive Chinese objective.  The US "superpower" status is largely contingent these days on the USD as the world's currency. 

I'm not saying "let it happen"... nor that it is "fait accompli" but it's very close to that.  The western world would do well to be several steps ahead by ensuring that NATO boundaries are not crossed, and that China doesn't get any motivation to do the same in Taiwan.

I appreciate the insight here regarding the Russian population.  As far as Putin is concerned I don't think anyone disagrees with your synopsis.  He wrote a manifesto in July stating exactly what he wants to do.  He doesn't distinguish between Ukraine being a "proxy state of the USA" or the former Soviet Bloc countries.   And from a proximity and practical standpoint he will do everything in his power for them to be part of Russia and set-up a puppet there like in Belarus.  We've known this for 3 administrations.

Now, as far as the inner workings of Ukraine I honestly have no idea.  I will take you at your word about Russian nationalism and where they desire to live.  On the flipside I'm pretty certain the Poles, Hungarians, and other former bloc or NATO country citizens  have a less than zero interest in moving to Putin's Russia.

The guy threatened Finland and Sweden today.  He directly threatened us as well.  He has a two front piggy bank with his oil and closer relationship to Xi and the Chinese government.  It's a complete s-show and the question is, assuming his economic power isn't severely crippled, why wouldn't he directly threaten the Baltics or former Soviet Bloc/NATO countries?  He's a fking asshat tyrant,  and has stated repeatedly what he intends to do.  He couldn't give a flying F about his own people.  I think we must  have the mindset that he isn't fearful of a NATO/USA response if he attacks a NATO country.   

[dgies9156]

As I was sitting in my hotel room (overlooking the Kremlin) in Moscow Thursday night, I wrote this but then decided not to post.  After a few more discussions with Russian friends and colleagues, I offer the following to this discussion:
- from a Western perspective Putin is not rational however he has played a long game in his own country to make his actions look very rational to the Russian people.
- Most Russians don't want war, but there is strong evidence (to most Russians) that life in Russia is far better than life in the former Soviet republics outside of Russia.  The huge amount of Ukranian migrant labor (about 1.5m people) in Russia is one point of concrete evidence of this.
- Part of Putin's game is claiming that Ukraine is a USA puppet state, so when Russia overtakes Ukraine (and they will) and installs their own puppet government they will have - by Putin's definition - "beaten the USA".  Russian people buy into this argument.
-  Russians are the 2nd most patriotic people I've ever met (after Americans, of course).  They believe in a "big, strong" Russia.
- Most Russians know exactly how messed up their system and leadership is... just like Americans (to be fair this is not a Trump/Biden comment), and are pretty honest about it in private.  It's still much better in Russia now than it was in the 90's, so all who remember the 90's tolerate the situation today because you can live, work, earn, travel, and even enjoy life.

As for the western actions:
- Sanctions don't work because money is like water, it finds a path and reaches its level.  I have read the entire text of all of the sanctions (job requirement) and most of them are narrowly focused so they will not significantly alter the major avenues of trade and foreign exchange for Russia.  They "look good" but are mostly a political act with little substance.
- As for military support I have no expertise, but refer to previous comments... Russians view Ukraine as a US proxy fighting with US weapons and US training.  Victory would be a huge morale boost.
- Terminating SWIFT for Russia would be a huge negative.  It seems the EU politicians are smarter than this.  It would be very bad for the US.  Now all commodities trades and Gas/Petro contracts are denominated in USD.  If SWIFT is switched off, the only other functioning system for international currency movement is the Chinese system, and it requires settlement in Yuan.  Russia is a top 5 producer of oil, gas, nickel, platinum, palladium, and coal.  Settling Russian volumes in Yuan would create a critical mass that drives other trade to Yuan thereby fulfilling a massive Chinese objective.  The US "superpower" status is largely contingent these days on the USD as the world's currency. 

I'm not saying "let it happen"... nor that it is "fait accompli" but it's very close to that.  The western world would do well to be several steps ahead by ensuring that NATO boundaries are not crossed, and that China doesn't get any motivation to do the same in Taiwan.

Brother Warrior:

Fascinating take and I appreciate the time you took to outline your thoughts. Your perspectives do what we too often don't do in this country — see things from the other side.

My own perspective on the East changed dramatically when my wife and I adopted children from Belarus and Ukraine in the late 1990s. We saw things and heard things that left an incredibly lasting vision about the old Soviet Union as well as the people of Ukraine and Belarus. You're right about one thing: the people love Mother Russia, or Ukraine, but they don't always like what's happening. The mistake many of us make is to confuse patriotism with government support.

We have a very interesting problem in Ukraine. The Russians view Ukraine, likely, the way we view Great Britain, France or Germany. The idea of a socialistic, Russian-oriented government in any of these countries would be more than we could tolerate. Likewise, a Ukraine oriented to the west is a burr in Mr. Putin's saddle.

To those of you who think the Russian action is unprecedented,  look at what we did in Cuba when Castro pledged alignment with the Soviet Union. The difference: the Russians are doing a better job than we did.

The problem we have now, as I have said before, is how far do we go for Ukraine. Is Mr. Biden willing to risk war over a country well within the old Russian sphere of influence. I doubt it. Is he willing to risk true sanctions that, as Brother Warrior points out, would effectively drive the Russians into the hands of the Chinese and threaten many aspects of our economy — I doubt that as well.

Sadly, I think the only answer is to back off, let Putin have Ukraine and hope it doesn't spill to Poland, where it will mean war.

[NCMUFan]

Ukrainians are fighting their all for their country.
Sickening the destruction and hardship on the people.

[WarriorFan]

I appreciate the insight here regarding the Russian population.  As far as Putin is concerned I don't think anyone disagrees with your synopsis.  He wrote a manifesto in July stating exactly what he wants to do.  He doesn't distinguish between Ukraine being a "proxy state of the USA" or the former Soviet Bloc countries.   And from a proximity and practical standpoint he will do everything in his power for them to be part of Russia and set-up a puppet there like in Belarus.  We've known this for 3 administrations.

Now, as far as the inner workings of Ukraine I honestly have no idea.  I will take you at your word about Russian nationalism and where they desire to live.  On the flipside I'm pretty certain the Poles, Hungarians, and other former bloc or NATO country citizens  have a less than zero interest in moving to Putin's Russia.

The guy threatened Finland and Sweden today.  He directly threatened us as well.  He has a two front piggy bank with his oil and closer relationship to Xi and the Chinese government.  It's a complete s-show and the question is, assuming his economic power isn't severely crippled, why wouldn't he directly threaten the Baltics or former Soviet Bloc/NATO countries?  He's a fking asshat tyrant,  and has stated repeatedly what he intends to do.  He couldn't give a flying F about his own people.  I think we must  have the mindset that he isn't fearful of a NATO/USA response if he attacks a NATO country.

Brother Muggsy:
Appreciate your comments.  I was offering perspective, not opinion.  If I decide to burden this board at some point with my opinion, it probably won't be too different to yours.

One small opinion I will share, is that the 3 administrations you refer to have been the 3 weakest, least strategic, and most disjointed foreign policy administrations in my (not short) lifetime.  Therein lies a big part of the problem. 

[Uncle Rico]

Brother Muggsy:
Appreciate your comments.  I was offering perspective, not opinion.  If I decide to burden this board at some point with my opinion, it probably won't be too different to yours.

One small opinion I will share, is that the 3 administrations you refer to have been the 3 weakest, least strategic, and most disjointed foreign policy administrations in my (not short) lifetime.  Therein lies a big part of the problem.

I agree partly with that last statement.  Foreign policy this century has been a borderline disaster but we've been miscalculating for a lot longer than that