ESPN Bubble Watch

[JWags85]

So, not me.

AINA

[Newsdreams]

So, not me.

Or 4ever

[TheREALwrk]

Lunardi now has us a number 8 playing in Ft. Worth.  It’s great because I will be at the new Dickies Arena for the games.  It’s not so great that Baylor would be the second round opponent and Waco is an hour and a half away.  Baylor would more than likely deliver a shellacking of MU in front of its frenzied fans sitting next to me.  I really hope MU can grab a 7 in another region at this point, even though I’d love to watch the team live and in person.

You should probably realize that Lunardi is an awful bracketologist (probably by choice) and not take his brackets seriously. Go to Bracket Matrix.

[Hards Alumni]

Or 4ever

Nor.  You either, I guess.

[Newsdreams]

Nor.  You either, I guess.

Why so serious?

[Hards Alumni]

Why so serious?

Sorry, I thought it was clear that this was a joke, as was my previous post.

[Newsdreams]

Sorry, I thought it was clear that this was a joke, as was my previous post.

Mine was a Joker reference 

[GoldenEagles03]

I know UNC is technically a team Marquette maybe wants to lose for seeding purposes, but I think it would be great to see them beat Duke.

Who cares about Coach K? Send him off with an L!

[Uncle Rico]

I know UNC is technically a team Marquette maybe wants to lose for seeding purposes, but I think it would be great to see them beat Duke.

Who cares about Coach K? Send him off with an L!

A Duke loss puts them closer to the bubble

[GoldenEagles03]

A Duke loss puts them closer to the bubble

The ole 3 seed bubble.

[Newsdreams]

A Duke loss puts them closer to the bubble

And therefore the NIT

[MarquetteMike1977]

Should be in
Marquette Golden Eagles
Behind 28 points from Justin Lewis, Marquette wrapped up the season with an 85-77 win at home over St. John's. While the game marked a return to form for the Golden Eagles after an 11-point loss at DePaul, the task now for Shaka Smart's group is to follow up on that win. We haven't seen that task completed for a while: MU hasn't recorded back-to-back victories since January. A win against Creighton on Thursday at the Big East tournament could improve this team's projected No. 8 seed. (updated March 5)

[1SE]

Should be in
Marquette Golden Eagles
Behind 28 points from Justin Lewis, Marquette wrapped up the season with an 85-77 win at home over St. John's. While the game marked a return to form for the Golden Eagles after an 11-point loss at DePaul, the task now for Shaka Smart's group is to follow up on that win. We haven't seen that task completed for a while: MU hasn't recorded back-to-back victories since January. A win against Creighton on Thursday at the Big East tournament could improve this team's projected No. 8 seed. (updated March 5)

I mean that's kind of ridiculous - I'm sure Brew can verify, but even if every bid stealer possible won and every bubble team won out we are certainly still in.

[brewcity77]

I mean that's kind of ridiculous - I'm sure Brew can verify, but even if every bid stealer possible won and every bubble team won out we are certainly still in.

Right now, there are at most 12 bid thieves out there, assuming two things. First, that teams like Loyola Chicago and North Texas are safe no matter what, and that every league with an at-large candidate is won by a team not in the mix.

I had 13 teams behind Marquette before the St John's win. Even if every league with a possible bid thief has one, Marquette still gets into Dayton. We're a lock.

[wisblue]

I mean that's kind of ridiculous - I'm sure Brew can verify, but even if every bid stealer possible won and every bubble team won out we are certainly still in.

It might be a little ridiculous but I’d give him a day or so to sift through the weekend results.

His comment about MU improving its projected 8 seed suggests that he considers MU a lock, but with how late that game ended he might have put in the summary without adjusting the classification.

[Newsdreams]

Right now, there are at most 12 bid thieves out there, assuming two things. First, that teams like Loyola Chicago and North Texas are safe no matter what, and that every league with an at-large candidate is won by a team not in the mix.

I had 13 teams behind Marquette before the St John's win. Even if every league with a possible bid thief has one, Marquette still gets into Dayton. We're a lock.

So we're still technically close to the bubble, COLE....

[MarquetteMike1977]

Marquette is a new Bubble Watch Lock in The Athletic

[Dr. Blackheart]

So we're still technically close to the bubble, COLE....

COLE HOLE

[Newsdreams]

COLE HOLE

Yo COLEslaw

[MarquetteMike1977]

ESPN Moved Marquette To A Lock Today
Big East

Locks

Villanova Wildcats, Providence Friars, UConn Huskies, Seton Hall Pirates, Marquette Golden Eagles

Should be in


Creighton Bluejays
Alex O'Connell had not one but two clean looks at a 3 in the final 30 seconds at home against Seton Hall. Neither shot fell, however, and Creighton came away with a five-point loss to the Pirates. While the defeat came as a disappointment on senior day, the Bluejays should still be in fine shape as a projected No. 10 seed. Greg McDermott's group will also get a coveted spot in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament. Proceeding straight to the Thursday sessions at the Garden should minimize Creighton's exposure to a potential bad loss. (updated March 5)

Work to do


Xavier Musketeers
Finally, after five straight defeats, the Musketeers got a win. Beating Georgetown on your home floor isn't particularly unusual this season, but for Travis Steele's team, it was mandatory. A loss to the Hoyas would have pushed Xavier off the No. 12 line and out of the projected field entirely. Now the Musketeers have a chance to hang on to their spot in the field. That effort will start as one of the six teams playing on Wednesday in the first round at the Big East tournament. (updated March 5)

[DoctorV]

I know X has had quite the late slide but it’s interesting to me to see Creighton ahead of them in the pecking order based off of the computer rankings alone

X: KenPom 51, NET 36

Creighton: KenPom 69, NET 66

X also swept Creighton if the H2H comparison is made, beat MU, UConn, OSU tourney teams

Creighton beat BYU, Nova, MU(2), UConn (2).

X: 5-9 Q1, 4-2 Q2
UConn: 5-5 Q1, 4-4 Q2

Then there’s obviously the 12-7 conf record versus the 8-11 in a round robin conference, but we are always told conference record no matta.
CU clearly performed better over the conference season and has the better top end wins, but the computer numbers don’t agree by a pretty sizeable margin and there’s the H2H which should mean something.

Wonder what the comparison is in those two data points that Brew always gives, the combined numbers of the two metrics- brew?

[brewcity77]

Wonder what the comparison is in those two data points that Brew always gives, the combined numbers of the two metrics- brew?

Guessing you're referring to the Resume and Quality averages. Here they are:

Xavier: 47.5 Resume, 44.3 Quality, 45.9 Average

Creighton: 37.5 Resume, 70.7 Quality, 54.1 Average

Based on that alone, Xavier should be ahead. And yet I look at my own seed list and I have Creighton 41 and Xavier 44. Why is that? Here goes:

Remember selection and seeding are separate, but personally, the last four teams I select still go to Dayton. So if I have selected 32 at-large teams, they will be seeded in accordance with regular seeding rules, but teams 33-36 will be placed in Dayton and placement will occur to line up with everyone else afterwards.

Selection is more heavily resume based. For instance, only one team inside the top-40 (so 39.5 or better) in resume average has ever been left out, and that was 36.0 Louisville last year. That's why Creighton, at 37.5 resume average, is safer than Xavier, who was one of my last four teams selected (33 of 36 at-larges). Because Xavier was in that last four, along with Wyoming, SMU, and Notre Dame, they automatically go to Dayton, though they are my top Dayton team in large part because they have better quality metrics than any of those other three.

Two other factors are Creighton's three Q1A wins (at Marquette, at UConn, v Nova) while Xavier is 0-6 in Q1A and the 9-6 road/neutral record for Creighton vs 5-7 for Xavier. Creighton's quality metrics suck, but everything else screams that they are safely in, even if just ahead of the cut line.

I want to dig in more today, but I think the bubble has shrunk to the point where there are at most 11 teams for 7 spots, though of the four I have outside (Rutgers, Florida, Indiana, Oklahoma) the Scarlet Knights are the only ones who have resume metrics that I feel comfortable putting into the field. More likely, it's 8 teams for 7 spots with Florida, Indiana, and Oklahoma all needing the auto-bid because their Q1 records are just too weak compared to the teams on the other side (though Notre Dame is starting to look shaky in that regard).

[DoctorV]

Thanks!

In brief, can you tell me how you calculate or where you find the resume versus quality metrics averages?

Are these numbers on the team sheets for the committee to see or just something you or other bracketologists have discovered over the years?


NEVERMIND
Just read your cracked sidewalks post

[BLWarrior91]

Quote from the first ESPN Bubble Watch of 2023:

Marquette was picked to finish ninth in the Big East. As we launch Tuesday, the Watch debuts by already showing Shaka Smart's group as a lock to make the NCAA tournament.

You now have to pay $10 a month for ESPN+ to read the article, so this is all I have.

[JakeBarnes]

Quote from the first ESPN Bubble Watch of 2023:

Marquette was picked to finish ninth in the Big East. As we launch Tuesday, the Watch debuts by already showing Shaka Smart's group as a lock to make the NCAA tournament.

You now have to pay $10 a month for ESPN+ to read the article, so this is all I have.

Pro tip: you can get a hulu/disney+/espn+ combopackage for like $15/month. Includes those articles and all the streaming games.