Hoya suxa

[brewcity77]

Brew—is a bad win based upon the point spread? If we will by 15 was it a good win, win by 11 is a bad win? Serious question.
Admittedly don't follow the numbers closely enough to know why such a small maryin can cause such a drop.

It was bad because of the 15 squandered points. We let the lead go from 26 to 11, which is a metric loss instead of a win. 15 point swings are big, especially against teams as bad as Georgetown. We also had to bring the starters back in, so saving their legs as a strategy didn't work.

Just a terrible take. Not everything can be quantified. Getting bench guys some burn in a February Big East game will pay dividends in a way KenPom can't run through his machine. Good coaches know that.

What can be quantified is that prior to that stretch, that lineup was the 56th most efficient lineup we could use. That means there were 55 better combinations. Those 5 had only played together on 4 possessions all season. You'd think the first 4 on Wednesday would've been enough to make a change, but they got 9 possessions before Shaka had to abandon the "rest the starters" mindset and put guys back in.

If you want to give the kids some run, fine. But there was no one on the floor that could create for anyone else. There was no one on the floor that could create for themselves. And any lineup with Jones and Joplin at the same time is going to be terrible defensively. That is all quantifiable.

Take out either Kam or Jop and insert Tyler or Justin, fine. Young players still get run without hemorrhaging the lead you spent 28 minutes building. It was one of the worst stretches of the year, time out should've been called far earlier, and considering this staff has displayed an understanding for laying down the hammer in the past, that was a time to at least minimize the loss, not just play turtle until the next TV timeout.

[MU82]

Some have treated the PT thing as an all-or-nothing deal for the group Shaka had on the floor from the 13:03 mark of the second half to the 7:27 mark: Jones, Joplin, Mitchell, Elliott and Kuath. ... Morsell and Oso subbed in for the latter 2 at the 11:51 mark -- meaning that for about 4 1/2 minutes, the MU lineup included 3 true freshmen, a guy who played 38 minutes all last season and Morsell.

One of Scoop arguments in support of Shaka's strategy seems to be that he needed to play that group together to get them more game experience -- get the kids ready in case they're needed in the BET or NCAAT due to foul trouble, injuries, Covid or other unforeseen situations.

But really, Shaka could have gotten more realistic game experience for them by playing only 2 of Jones/Joplin/Mitchell/Oso at a time, surrounding them with more experienced players, and gone with that kind of rotation for most of the rest of the game.

Indeed, that's exactly what he's done the vast majority of the season, to darn good results, and that's a far more likely "need" scenario than one involving all of them playing at once. It's pretty hard to imagine Shaka needing a lineup of Kam, Joplin, Stevie, Oso and 1 veteran for an extended stretch of an NCAA tournament game.

The irony is that the kids probably would have gotten MORE playing time because Shaka wouldn't have felt he had to use the starting lineup for the final 7:27, and that it would have been higher-quality PT, too.

Again, I'll state the usual caveats: I love the job Shaka's doing, I'm not "angry" or "upset" about Tuesday's game, I think the season's been a big success, I believe we have a legit chance to get to the second weekend, etc. And the vast majority of the time, Shaka has done a great job apportioning PT - it's one of his many strengths as a coach IMHO.

[PointWarrior]

You are all missing the obvious, Shaka had GT +13 ...

[brewcity77]

Some have treated the PT thing as an all-or-nothing deal for the group Shaka had on the floor from the 13:03 mark of the second half to the 7:27 mark: Jones, Joplin, Mitchell, Elliott and Kuath. ... Morsell and Oso subbed in for the latter 2 at the 11:51 mark -- meaning that for about 4 1/2 minutes, the MU lineup included 3 true freshmen, a guy who played 38 minutes all last season and Morsell.

One of Scoop arguments in support of Shaka's strategy seems to be that he needed to play that group together to get them more game experience -- get the kids ready in case they're needed in the BET or NCAAT due to foul trouble, injuries, Covid or other unforeseen situations.

But really, Shaka could have gotten more realistic game experience for them by playing only 2 of Jones/Joplin/Mitchell/Oso at a time, surrounding them with more experienced players, and gone with that kind of rotation for most of the rest of the game.

Indeed, that's exactly what he's done the vast majority of the season, to darn good results, and that's a far more likely "need" scenario than one involving all of them playing at once. It's pretty hard to imagine Shaka needing a lineup of Kam, Joplin, Stevie, Oso and 1 veteran for an extended stretch of an NCAA tournament game.

The irony is that the kids probably would have gotten MORE playing time because Shaka wouldn't have felt he had to use the starting lineup for the final 7:27, and that it would have been higher-quality PT, too.

Again, I'll state the usual caveats: I love the job Shaka's doing, I'm not "angry" or "upset" about Tuesday's game, I think the season's been a big success, I believe we have a legit chance to get to the second weekend, etc. And the vast majority of the time, Shaka has done a great job apportioning PT - it's one of his many strengths as a coach IMHO.

Agree with all this.

My issue is with that particular combination and how long he kept them together with 3 timeouts available and a comfortable lead. I am a big fan of Shaka, but every coach makes mistakes. I would have this as one of the most glaring of the year. Still love him, still think he's doing great overall, and hope he learns from it.

[panda]

What is the negative net impact from our actual victory rather than a 15-20 point win ?

[bradforster]

I think the most glaring mistake was failing to foul up three points with just over 3 seconds on the clock.  That strategic error actually cost the team a game!

[Elonsmusk]

Agree with all this.

My issue is with that particular combination and how long he kept them together with 3 timeouts available and a comfortable lead. I am a big fan of Shaka, but every coach makes mistakes. I would have this as one of the most glaring of the year. Still love him, still think he's doing great overall, and hope he learns from it.

LOL

[21Jumpstreet]

But really, Shaka could have gotten more realistic game experience for them by playing only 2 of Jones/Joplin/Mitchell/Oso at a time, surrounding them with more experienced players, and gone with that kind of rotation for most of the rest of the game.

100% and the guys that don't play much would have had some solid successes during this stretch, which is always good for a young player in a new system.

[panda]

LOL

Lol is right. I mean come on. One of the biggest mistakes of the year ?

[5DollarPitcher]

What can be quantified is that prior to that stretch, that lineup was the 56th most efficient lineup we could use. That means there were 55 better combinations. Those 5 had only played together on 4 possessions all season. You'd think the first 4 on Wednesday would've been enough to make a change, but they got 9 possessions before Shaka had to abandon the "rest the starters" mindset and put guys back in.

If you want to give the kids some run, fine. But there was no one on the floor that could create for anyone else. There was no one on the floor that could create for themselves. And any lineup with Jones and Joplin at the same time is going to be terrible defensively. That is all quantifiable.

Take out either Kam or Jop and insert Tyler or Justin, fine. Young players still get run without hemorrhaging the lead you spent 28 minutes building. It was one of the worst stretches of the year, time out should've been called far earlier, and considering this staff has displayed an understanding for laying down the hammer in the past, that was a time to at least minimize the loss, not just play turtle until the next TV timeout.

You're way too zoomed in and that's your problem here. The question is who cares? If going from a 26 point win to an 11 point win makes such an impact on our season that it's worthy of being "one of the worst coaching mistakes of the year", maybe just maybe we were never meant to do anything in the tourney anyway.

We won. I don't care that it was the "56th most efficient lineup". I don't care that our "good team gonna make the tourney normalized for conference and average shoe size of player index" will go from 194.78 to 193.66.

It doesn't matter. Win the games in front of you - that's all you can try to do.

[brewcity77]

Lol is right. I mean come on. One of the biggest mistakes of the year ?

Yes. FWIW, I don't think he's made a ton of coaching mistakes. I think Shaka is deserving of being on the Naismith COY short list and has done way more with this roster than should be expected.

Here's my question for those that disagree. I'll grant not fouling vs Creighton as the most obvious. What are the nine other glaring coaching mistakes Shaka made that are worse than a result that led to a roughly 8-spot average negative shift in our quality metrics, which in terms of NCAA selection is the equivalent of about a full seed line drop?

Please list Shaka's errors, otherwise I'll assume you agree.

[panda]

Yes. FWIW, I don't think he's made a ton of coaching mistakes. I think Shaka is deserving of being on the Naismith COY short list and has done way more with this roster than should be expected.

Here's my question for those that disagree. I'll grant not fouling vs Creighton as the most obvious. What are the nine other glaring coaching mistakes Shaka made that are worse than a result that led to a roughly 8-spot average negative shift in our quality metrics, which in terms of NCAA selection is the equivalent of about a full seed line drop?

Please list Shaka's errors, otherwise I'll assume you agree.

I'm not going to go through and list them, but if I would, playing different rotations when the game is solidly in hand against a horrible Georgetown team is extremely low on my list of concerns.

Frankly I see more value in playing those different rotations, not calling timeouts and letting players work out the problems themselves on the court against a poor team. Those are valuable lessons learned that could potentially help us in the future.

I know you're not dodging me as you get a lot of questions, but I'm genuinely interested. What would you think our net impact would've been had we won by 20 instead of 11 Wednesday night ?

[5DollarPitcher]

Yes. FWIW, I don't think he's made a ton of coaching mistakes. I think Shaka is deserving of being on the Naismith COY short list and has done way more with this roster than should be expected.

Here's my question for those that disagree. I'll grant not fouling vs Creighton as the most obvious. What are the nine other glaring coaching mistakes Shaka made that are worse than a result that led to a roughly 8-spot average negative shift in our quality metrics, which in terms of NCAA selection is the equivalent of about a full seed line drop?

Please list Shaka's errors, otherwise I'll assume you agree.

It wasn't a mistake. A move taking a double digit win to a double digit win doesn't qualify as a mistake. Whatever fraction of a percentage point we lost in advanced metrics may very well be made up in experience for the group that got the extra run. Stop being so myopic.

[BrewCity83]

I know you're not dodging me as you get a lot of questions, but I'm genuinely interested. What would you think our net impact would've been had we won by 20 instead of 11 Wednesday night ?

I'm not the "Brew" that you addressed, but it looks from his last comment that he's putting the NET impact at about 8 spots.

[MUfan12]

There has been a tendency to ease up.

DePaul. At Seton Hall. Georgetown.

Are they egregious mistakes? Nah. Definitely not to the level of not fouling Creighton. But these things do add up. Good problem to have, worrying about seeding, hey?

[brewcity77]

I'm not going to go through and list them, but if I would, playing different rotations when the game is solidly in hand against a horrible Georgetown team is extremely low on my list of concerns.

Frankly I see more value in playing those different rotations, not calling timeouts and letting players work out the problems themselves on the court against a poor team. Those are valuable lessons learned that could potentially help us in the future.

I know you're not dodging me as you get a lot of questions, but I'm genuinely interested. What would you think our net impact would've been had we won by 20 instead of 11 Wednesday night ?

NET impact, probably about 6-8 spots. But as I expect us to be in, I'm more worried about our seeding.

Seeding has about an 85% correlation with the average of your resume metric average and quality metric average. Instead of climbing 4-5 in kenpom, which we would have had we held the 26-point lead, we dropped 7 spots. We also dropped in the other quality metrics.

Before GT, our average quality metric was 32.7, after GT it was 40.7. Because you are averaging that with the resume metrics, every 8 spots cut in half is 4, which equates to a full seed line drop (4 teams per line). Had MU won by 18, they would've stayed the same. Win by 26, they probably move up a full seed line. Win by 11 like they did, drop a seed line.

If Shaka changes the lineup when it gets to 20 and we hold there, no big deal, we stay where we're at. Because he let it go as long as he did, we dropped a line. I consider that a poor coaching decision, especially as we had timeouts and he brought the starters back anyway.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

But really, Shaka could have gotten more realistic game experience for them by playing only 2 of Jones/Joplin/Mitchell/Oso at a time, surrounding them with more experienced players, and gone with that kind of rotation for most of the rest of the game.

Indeed, that's exactly what he's done the vast majority of the season, to darn good results, and that's a far more likely "need" scenario than one involving all of them playing at once. It's pretty hard to imagine Shaka needing a lineup of Kam, Joplin, Stevie, Oso and 1 veteran for an extended stretch of an NCAA tournament game.

The irony is that the kids probably would have gotten MORE playing time because Shaka wouldn't have felt he had to use the starting lineup for the final 7:27, and that it would have been higher-quality PT, too.

Exactly this.  Could have likely gotten the same guys minutes, and likely better minutes, with some different combinations.

Oh no, I am *literally* crying again? 

[BrewCity83]

So, based purely on the metrics, it was a poor coaching strategy.

There's much more to coaching than gaming the metrics.  There's player development, which is really hard for us to measure.  So hopefully the gain in player development balances out the metrics losses.  In this game, it probably doesn't, but that aspect can't be completely dismissed. 

[5DollarPitcher]

So, based purely on the metrics, it was a poor coaching strategy.

There's much more to coaching than gaming the metrics.  There's player development, which is really hard for us to measure.  So hopefully the gain in player development balances out the metrics losses.  In this game, it probably doesn't, but that aspect can't be completely dismissed.

It can be when you've reduced sports to 0s and 1s running up and down the court as some have. Darryl Morey never won a championship, guys.

[swoopem]

Yes. FWIW, I don't think he's made a ton of coaching mistakes. I think Shaka is deserving of being on the Naismith COY short list and has done way more with this roster than should be expected.

Here's my question for those that disagree. I'll grant not fouling vs Creighton as the most obvious. What are the nine other glaring coaching mistakes Shaka made that are worse than a result that led to a roughly 8-spot average negative shift in our quality metrics, which in terms of NCAA selection is the equivalent of about a full seed line drop?

Please list Shaka's errors, otherwise I'll assume you agree.

Allowing UCLA to move the tip time. They should've been forced to play as scheduled or forfeited

[mug644]

Allowing UCLA to move the tip time. They should've been forced to play as scheduled or forfeited

Teal?

If not, really?

[MU82]

It doesn't matter. Win the games in front of you - that's all you can try to do.

Actually it did matter. And actually there was more Shaka could have tried to do. Which is why he put the starters back in, and why he wasn't especially satisfied with the result afterward.

Just because you literally refuse to pay attention to basic facts, it doesn't mean the facts literally cease to exist.

[5DollarPitcher]

Actually it did matter. And actually there was more Shaka could have tried to do. Which is why he put the starters back in, and why he wasn't especially satisfied with the result afterward.

Just because you literally refuse to pay attention to basic facts, it doesn't mean the facts literally cease to exist.

It didn't matter. We won.

[MU82]

It didn't matter. We won.

Attaboy. Never admit you're wrong.

[brewcity77]

It didn't matter. We won.

2018 wants its take back. Like it or not, the RPI is dead and style points absolutely do matter.