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* Next up: @ Villanova

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Date/Time: Jan 19, 2022, 7:00pm
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Author Topic: Road to NCAAs  (Read 4356 times)

1SE

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Road to NCAAs
« on: January 09, 2022, 07:24:24 AM »
Most brackets have us on the right side of the bubble. Again, I think given the fact that there is ALWAYS a weak bubble to get to 68, 18 wins is a mortal lock especially at 18-14 if SJU is now cancelled. That said, if COVID cancellations continue both for us and others it's harder to know what the magic number is (17-15 seems likely it could be good depending on what the Ws and Ls look like in that mix)

Anyways, looking at the schedule it seems to me this is the most likely path to 18 of our remaining games.

v DePaul
v SH
@ Nova
v X
@ SH
@ Prov
v Nova
@ UCONN
@ Butler
v GT
@ Creighton
v Butler
@ DePaul
@ SJU
BET 

We've gotta get the 5 remaining against the bottom feeders. We also need to get one of two on the road against SJU or Creighton as well as our first round BET game otherwise we're gonna need to beat a (near) ranked team on the road or X or Nova at home. SH at home will very key - we really needed either Creighton at home or that one, which is why I think the Creighton loss was so crucial - clearly SH will be a bigger task. 

It seems entirely reasonable for an expectation to be dancing this year if we take care of the business we should but there is little margin for error.  If we can steal 1 or 2 in that Jan 19 to Feb  8th stretch (the @Nova to  @UCONN stretch) I would be majorly disappointed to not be dancing come March.
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fjm

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2022, 07:45:26 AM »
F it. Let’s just win em all! ;)

But out of the Nova to UConn stretch I think we win 1.

I think we beat X at home.

MU82

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2022, 07:50:11 AM »
It will depend on how heavily the committee weighs Shaka having failed his first test.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

brewcity77

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2022, 08:25:43 AM »
18 might have us in, but most high majors with 18 get left out. Though I do think that Illinois win will age like a sharp cheddar. I think 19 is lock and we probably avoid Dayton, 18 and we're sweating Dayton or NIT.

As far as cancellations, I think the number to keep in mind is 5.5, which is the gap number I like to look at for high majors. Generally, if you have 6 more wins than losses, you're in. So 19-13, 20-14, or in the case of cancellations, 17-11, 18-12 should be safe. If the gap is 4-5, it's more dicey. 19-14, 18-13, or 17-12 might do it, but it's no lock. 19-15, 18-14, 17-13, that's not unheard of, but it will get you left out more often than not.

And I know there's always the 16-14 Georgia outlier, but it's such an outlier that I don't think it's useful for projection purposes.
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Elonsmusk

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2022, 09:10:22 AM »
It will depend on how heavily the committee weighs Shaka having failed his first test.

LOL.  Well done.
No doubt there are cultural differences, but sports is important for many Asians.

bilsu

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2022, 09:24:16 AM »
18 might have us in, but most high majors with 18 get left out. Though I do think that Illinois win will age like a sharp cheddar. I think 19 is lock and we probably avoid Dayton, 18 and we're sweating Dayton or NIT.

As far as cancellations, I think the number to keep in mind is 5.5, which is the gap number I like to look at for high majors. Generally, if you have 6 more wins than losses, you're in. So 19-13, 20-14, or in the case of cancellations, 17-11, 18-12 should be safe. If the gap is 4-5, it's more dicey. 19-14, 18-13, or 17-12 might do it, but it's no lock. 19-15, 18-14, 17-13, that's not unheard of, but it will get you left out more often than not.

And I know there's always the 16-14 Georgia outlier, but it's such an outlier that I don't think it's useful for projection purposes.
When the committee is examining the final bubble teams, they will notice that Illinois did not have their best player.

Pakuni

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #6 on: January 09, 2022, 09:29:34 AM »
It will depend on how heavily the committee weighs Shaka having failed his first test.

They may consider that Shaka didn't prioritize winning this year.


CountryRoads

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2022, 09:45:12 AM »
A six game losing streak would not go over very well here. I think we get in relatively safely. The bottom teams are pretty weak in this conference and I think we can match up with the top teams well also. Expecting some fun games down the stretch.

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2022, 09:46:09 AM »
When the committee is examining the final bubble teams, they will notice that Illinois did not have their best player.

Doubtful.
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Mu8891

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2022, 09:54:12 AM »
I think MU has a realistic shot at the big dance.  If they can play like the last 2 games ... they will prob finish 5 th or 6th in the BE and be a lock.

However, I don’t see any way that they sweep the remaining 5 games v SJU,
Gtown and Butler.

Mu8891

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2022, 09:57:35 AM »
Ooops ... forgot DuhPaul

MarquetteDano

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2022, 10:01:02 AM »
Doubtful.

Trying to remember back to various interviews committee members have made,  I don't recall injuries costing team bids (i.e. Marquette getting less credit for beating U of I) but it can HELP teams.  For instance,  Illinois getting a higher seed because the Marquette loss is discounted a bit by the fact they didn't have Cockburn for the game.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2022, 10:10:55 AM »
I think MU has a realistic shot at the big dance.  If they can play like the last 2 games ... they will prob finish 5 th or 6th in the BE and be a lock.

However, I don’t see any way that they sweep the remaining 5 games v SJU,
Gtown and Butler.

Same.

But I also find it hard to believe we completely bomb X, SHU(2) at Prov, at Creighton along with getting swept in the 3 toughest left(Nova 2 and at UConn)

Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

TallTitan34

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2022, 10:27:10 AM »
18 might have us in, but most high majors with 18 get left out.

Won't win totals be judged differently this year with some teams having several canceled games?
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MU82

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2022, 10:30:58 AM »

They may consider that Shaka didn't prioritize winning this year.


Teal unnecessary.

And he hasn’t … so it’s great to see us winning again, too!
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

brewcity77

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #15 on: January 09, 2022, 10:36:21 AM »
When the committee is examining the final bubble teams, they will notice that Illinois did not have their best player.

They will look at it for Illinois. They will not look at it for us.

Won't win totals be judged differently this year with some teams having several canceled games?

Could be, which is why I included the next paragraph about W/L differentials.
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muwarrior69

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #16 on: January 09, 2022, 10:38:23 AM »
The "road" has been pretty bumpy but if we can continue to score like the last two games it just might be a smooth ride regardless of who we play.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2022, 10:50:56 AM »
Most brackets have us on the right side of the bubble. Again, I think given the fact that there is ALWAYS a weak bubble to get to 68, 18 wins is a mortal lock especially at 18-14 if SJU is now cancelled. That said, if COVID cancellations continue both for us and others it's harder to know what the magic number is (17-15 seems likely it could be good depending on what the Ws and Ls look like in that mix)

Anyways, looking at the schedule it seems to me this is the most likely path to 18 of our remaining games.

v DePaul
v SH
@ Nova
v X
@ SH
@ Prov
v Nova
@ UCONN
@ Butler
v GT
@ Creighton
v Butler
@ DePaul
@ SJU
BET 

We've gotta get the 5 remaining against the bottom feeders. We also need to get one of two on the road against SJU or Creighton as well as our first round BET game otherwise we're gonna need to beat a (near) ranked team on the road or X or Nova at home. SH at home will very key - we really needed either Creighton at home or that one, which is why I think the Creighton loss was so crucial - clearly SH will be a bigger task. 

It seems entirely reasonable for an expectation to be dancing this year if we take care of the business we should but there is little margin for error.  If we can steal 1 or 2 in that Jan 19 to Feb  8th stretch (the @Nova to  @UCONN stretch) I would be majorly disappointed to not be dancing come March.

Is the SJU game no longer expected to be made up? Did I miss something?
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

TallTitan34

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2022, 10:56:54 AM »
Is the SJU game no longer expected to be made up? Did I miss something?

FWIW the Marquette website refers to it as canceled and not postponed.
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JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2022, 10:57:21 AM »
Also, these next 2 games are huge. Really need to win em both because the 6 game stretch after that is going to be reallllll tough. Starting with pummeling Gtown was perfect, now need to get 2 more. Then you can afford a 2-4 stretch @Nova, v X, @SHU, @PC, v Nova and @UCONN. 6-7 heading into final 6 or 7 BE games should be in a decent spot. Lots of ifs, but if we play 80% as good as we did the last 2 games, I like our chances of going 4-4 or better in the next 8.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #20 on: January 09, 2022, 10:59:18 AM »
FWIW the Marquette website refers to it as canceled and not postponed.

Hmmm. With the BE announcing they plan to make up PPD games and Marq certainly wanting their home game, you sure think they’d make more of an effort than giving up in early Jan. Do know SJU has already rescheduled a few games tho - maybe their schedules just don’t match up.
I would take the Rick SLU program right now.

DoctorV

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #21 on: January 09, 2022, 11:07:02 AM »
Hmmm. With the BE announcing they plan to make up PPD games and Marq certainly wanting their home game, you sure think they’d make more of an effort than giving up in early Jan. Do know SJU has already rescheduled a few games tho - maybe their schedules just don’t match up.

I’d like for Marquette to play em all….

However, STJ has 4 to make up so the scheduling situation is on them.

Also, I would bet that a road game at the Johnnies is one of those that Shaka and Co wouldn’t be terribly upset about not playing. Seems to me like a pretty low upside game without much to gain. The raw numbers would look better with an extra win obviously, but that’s a tough game and the Johnnies computer numbers are currently sloppy.

StJ actually has some good pieces, they have just been wildly inconsistent. Champagnie went for 34 versus DePaul and then followed up with an 0-8 from 3 performance against Providence for example.

Weren’t they predicted to finish in the top half of conference in the preseason this year?
« Last Edit: January 09, 2022, 11:29:52 AM by DoctorV »

brewcity77

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2022, 11:08:48 AM »
Hmmm. With the BE announcing they plan to make up PPD games and Marq certainly wanting their home game, you sure think they’d make more of an effort than giving up in early Jan. Do know SJU has already rescheduled a few games tho - maybe their schedules just don’t match up.

I went through their mutual schedules after the game was cancelled and there were only two dates that worked the entire year. February 10 & 18. I see Butler is now playing the Johnnies on the 18th, so unless they do February 10, it's probably off.
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Jay Bee

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2022, 11:39:58 AM »
Avoiding Cockburn may Be The Difference.

willie warrior

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Re: Road to NCAAs
« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2022, 01:43:51 PM »
Avoiding Cockburn may Be The Difference.
Yes, by all means, avoid it. It can be very painful.

 

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